General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsHow do you repeal the ACA without a replacement?
It's the question no R wants to answer, because the truth is that repealing the ACA means getting rid of the subsidies, the exchanges, the Medicaid expansion, baseline healthcare deliverables and guarantees like no pre-existing conditions, etc.
That means that the 20-million people covered under Medicaid expansion immediately lose their insurance.
That means that anybody getting a subsidy immediately loses that subsidy and now must pay 100% of their premium.
That means that premiums rise perhaps 100% on people getting insurance through their employer, as the pool of insured people will have decreased by 30-million people.
It means utter chaos for months if not years.
RadiationTherapy
(5,818 posts)into a mild background hum.
Solly Mack
(90,762 posts)Which is what he wanted more than a replacement. A win (to him) in his efforts to eradicate anything Obama. The GOP supports this effort, of course.
He'll claim it a win.
Then he'll talk about how (one day in the future) they'll come up with a replacement that's Yuge! Tremendous! Great!
State the Obvious
(842 posts)Have we learned nothing?
It is called "Bait and Switch".
If Trump can persuade others to repeal it first, he will have NO incentive to replace it.
He will have successfully removed ALL healthcare coverage for everyone who needs it.
Again.....have we learned nothing?
Solly Mack
(90,762 posts)State the Obvious
(842 posts).....and under EACH rug, before we decide...
TRUTH? or LIE?
Solly Mack
(90,762 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)He would destroy the insurance markets and ensure a recession since health care is one sixth of the economy.
The mayhem would immediately affect the group and Medicare markets where over 70% of the Americans get their health care.
golfguru
(4,987 posts)Stock Market is up 20%+ since November 2016. It will decline 10-20% if a recession is in the cards.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-end-mostly-higher-to-book-best-half-year-gains-in-years-2017-06-30
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)golfguru
(4,987 posts)I am hoping GOP blows up the health insurance markets and the stock market with it. I have some cash on the sidelines which needs to get back in the stock market.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)That is why the GOP will not do it.
Cosmocat
(14,564 posts)Says it all ... It's a petulant republican sugar high. A fairly painful correction is inevitable even if these idiots dont blow it up.
golfguru
(4,987 posts)and waiting eagerly for tRump & cohorts to blow it up.
Market is currently way overvalued.
Vogon_Glory
(9,117 posts)But a lot of Republican politicians are getting strong hints from their constituents that if they try to repeal the ACA, their careers are burnt toast. I think some of the Republicans in the Senate are performing strange and wonderful kabuki dances so the voters won't throw them out on their ears mnext year.
Solly Mack
(90,762 posts)But I still think Trump wants Obamacare gone so he can call it a win, and take pleasure in attacking a former President who is more popular than Trump will ever be.
Vogon_Glory
(9,117 posts)I think that even the Repugs are beginning to think that Thump is a disastrous leader, not just for the nation as a whole (Hey, we Democrats already knew that) but for the interests of the Republican Party.
Ms. Toad
(34,066 posts)Which people worked for decades to change. Are memories really so short that people really don't remember that the ACA has only been fully implemented for a very brief time. People are ackting as ir it would be a new form of chaos, never before seen, when in reality it would just mean returning to what we had before - and that we did just fine (per Republican standards) before the ACA.
Do you really think repealing it without a replacement - and returning to what the Republcans thought was just fine before - is of any concern at all to them?
HopeAgain
(4,407 posts)They will look to find a way to make sure people don't feel the pinch until after 2018. Then they will blame the Democrats for their inability to replace.
Voltaire2
(13,023 posts)I rather doubt your 100% increase claim. It would of course be a nightmare for everyone in the individual market getting either Medicaid or subsidies. It might result in some employers dropping mandated benefits- coverage to age 26, no lifetime caps, etc. but as long as we are at high employment levels there will be some pressure to retain those benefits. Premiums will continue to increase, and cost shifting back to the consumer will resume unfettered by the aca. It will suck, but it will not suck catastrophically for the middle class.
stopbush
(24,396 posts)Middle-Class Families with Employer Coverage
For middle-class families now receiving health insurance through their employer, the Senate bill would create new risks particularly in the case of a sudden financial or health-related shock. The ACAs bar on annual and lifetime coverage limits insulates families including those with employer-based coverage from the risk that a costly illness could force them into financial distress or bankruptcy. Likewise, the ACA provides an avenue for middle-class workers who lose their jobs to get affordable coverage through the individual market or Medicaid. The Senate bill would remove these safeguards:
The bill could lead to the return of annual and lifetime limits that protect middle-income families from bankruptcy including families with employer plans. As a Brookings analysis showed, states ability to waive Essential Health Benefits would allow for the return of annual and lifetime limits on coverage.[10] Not only could those limits return in the individual market, but large employers in any state could potentially reinstate them.[11] Before the ACA, 70 million people with employer-based coverage or 59 percent of these people faced lifetime limits.[12] If these limits return, once again a serious illness could drive middle-class families into financial hardship or even bankruptcy.
People who lose job-based coverage or want to leave their job might not have access to affordable insurance. Tens of millions of people each year lose job-based coverage and either enroll in individual market coverage or become uninsured.[13] Thus, the availability of affordable, comprehensive individual market coverage is an important protection for people with employer coverage. The Senate bill, by making individual market coverage much less affordable, would undermine this protection.
http://www.cbpp.org/research/health/middle-class-families-would-face-higher-costs-worse-coverage-under-senate-health
Voltaire2
(13,023 posts)Some employers might decrease benefits, others might not. This was the situation before the aca and for those in the employer based system it was not a catastrophe then nor would it be now. It is the 35 million or so outside that system who will be screwed.
haele
(12,649 posts)In the 90's, it didn't seem so bad for employer-provided insurance - well, unless Dental insurance was a concern.
Six years prior to the ACA - pretty much the time Medicare part D came into the picture, (though I think that's more coincidence than causation) employers with good insurance were experiencing significant premium and patient responsibility/deductible rate increases, along with loss of basic service coverage for what was previously taken for granted. My employer at the time started having to pass on 18% - 25% premium rate increases every year for basically the same coverage - and they were a "preferred employer" using a major health insurance company, with over 50K higher paid employees spread out in only four states. Of course, most of the employees were engineers and scientists, who tended to be older, but still.
My employer's premium for employee, spouse and family went from ~ $270 a month in 2004 to ~ $825 a month in 2008, with the same insurance company.
The deductible went from $1Ksingle/$3K family to $3500 single/$6K family.
Services were cut - Mental Health went from 24 therapy/doctor visits a year/2 weeks inpatient to pooling and limiting all types of therapy (mental health, physical, and occupational) to 24 visits a year and only 72 hrs. inpatient.
Doctor's visits: $10 primary/$20 specialty and Urgent Care/$75 ER with $100 hospitalization went to $50 primary/$75 specialty and Urgent Care/$250 ER with $500 hospitalization in 4 years.
The prescriptions went from a three tiered monthly <$10 generic/$20 preferred/$45 name brand or specialty to 75% generic/60% preferred, name brand or specialty.
So, maybe the doctor could provide you a referral to a MFGR's "coupon/affordable care" program if your couldn't afford the monthly *after-insurance* costs of $1500 for three prescriptions along with the $2600 2-pack injectable for your spouse's disability that kept him functional and at least able to drive on occasion. Well, until your spouse got kicked off your insurance because he would cap out for any reasonable health insurance by 2014, and you'd be stuck with coming up with $2K a month for the premiums on a $20K deductible high risk plan just for him, unless the two of you got divorced and he'd have to move out to just to get Medicare coverage through his SSI.
That's what we were looking at just in 2008, when he had gone over 1/2 his lifetime cap.
A normal healthy family, pre Medicare eligibility, might just be stuck with having to elect the "Basic" health plan on the employer's benfits menu, and grumble about the $600 - $800 a month they have to pay to keep family coverage they might never use for anything but check-ups if they're lucky.
But under the pre-ACA plans available to the worker types - especially after 2006, if there was *anything* chronic in your family, or if anyone had a serious injury or illness, you could easily be on the hook for over half your annual pay just to cover the medical expenses.
Or, you would have to figure out if it would be better to go untreated, and the patient eventually die after being a burden on the family years/decades earlier than they would have if they had gotten treatment in the first place. Just as they do in third-world countries.
Haele
Demsrule86
(68,556 posts)some employers would not even be able to offer it due to the price...and most would not be able to afford it...the ACA has stopped the sharp rise in premiums in employer based insurance as less people show up at the ER.
Voltaire2
(13,023 posts)get to find out.
Demsrule86
(68,556 posts)Cognitive_Resonance
(1,546 posts)spanone
(135,829 posts)madinmaryland
(64,931 posts)"This bill immediately repeals the Affordable Care Act". Probably with whatever the bill number was.
The teabaggers in congress don't care what the repercussions will be.
Lee-Lee
(6,324 posts)Then they will say "we repealed it and kept or promise and we have time to craft a replacement before the repeal takes effect."
Then they will blame Democrats when they fail to craft any replacement.
haele
(12,649 posts)It appears that the GOP repeal of the ACA is based on two factors: 1) Get rid of anything President Obama did that was successful and 2) Cut the taxes on businesses and the wealthy.
Neither of those would preclude the strategy of getting rid of the ACA right now, and then bludgeon the Democrats on their Media outlets for not working with them on a "health insurance" replacement that guts Medicare/Medicaid (Another useless tax on the Wealthy, after all) and will pretty much shove the full cost of health care back to the individual.
Between social control through voter disenfranchisement and an exhausted electorate, they figure they can get their sheep to fall in line over the next three or four election cycles until they are "firmly" in control and the United States of America becomes the Consolidated States of Amerincorp, LLC.
On edit - the GOP has proven that it doesn't care for "The Base", considering anyone who "works" as a fungible cog in the profit machine, and anyone who can't work now or in the future as an unaccepatble cost.
Haele
leftyladyfrommo
(18,868 posts)They repeal it effective a year from now and then work like crazy to come up with something that will work.
Lee-Lee
(6,324 posts)They get to say "look we repealed" to their base. They are so stupid they will take it as a pure win.
They get to then create an artificial urgency to act. Right now if they don't [ass something new we keep the ACA. If they do that now if whatever crap they come up with will "have to be passed" because otherwise all the ACA gains go away. So if they set up a system that gives us 20% if the ACA they can say "ass this or you don't even get to keep that 20%".
Foamfollower
(1,097 posts)Healthcare is such a huge portion of the GDP that the US economy would immediately crash followed by a global economic meltdown of an historic level.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)I don't know if there would be a global crash but it would cause chaos in the insurance markets which is one sixth of the economy. A recession would surely ensue.
golfguru
(4,987 posts)still_one
(92,183 posts)what the consequences
pangaia
(24,324 posts)We say OKAY to repeal OBAMACARE. Let's do it.
BUT, we keep THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT !!!
The dumb fuckers will never know..
unblock
(52,205 posts)RKP5637
(67,107 posts)comprehend the GOP agenda. Next, will be Soylent Green. These people are evil. They are not ones grandfather's GOP. This, is a whole new herd of sociopaths and sadists, FFS, it only takes a brief glance to see what they are about and capable of.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soylent_Green
unblock
(52,205 posts)They would not just dump people off insurance immediately. Not that they have any compassion, it's just that they recognize how damaging to their re-election chances it would be.
No, they would just create a ticking time bomb to allow themselves to get re-elected before they really had to solve the problem.
Not Ruth
(3,613 posts)Not Ruth
(3,613 posts)moonscape
(4,673 posts)she had attacked Joy, but didn't know about so many others who are mentioned in this mega thread I got from that link:
Link to tweet
The thread is poignant, and worth a read.
Not Ruth
(3,613 posts)Not Ruth
(3,613 posts)Cosmocat
(14,564 posts)0 ...
The votes that would draw from republicans in congresss.
golfguru
(4,987 posts)I heard the August recess might be called off to work on a replacement bill.
In the meanwhile, all those signed up on ACA will be in a limbo. Employer provided insurance should not be affected.
ProudMNDemocrat
(16,784 posts)have less than 2 weeks to work in July before going on recess for 6 weeks. Like they are going to get anything done in July.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)and end some "free" preventive services. Whatever, it would be ugly for lots of people.
Warpy
(111,254 posts)so if they repeal it, they've got 4 years in addition to the 7 years of voting to repeal it while they did nothing to replace any of it.
It's proof positive that Republicans can't govern. They can get elected and they can wreck government.
There will be incredible chaos in 2020 unless they start passing ACA extensions 6 months at a time. Then there will be chaos among insurers and providers but people will have the illusion of stability.
And my best guess says that is exactly what they will do.
stopbush
(24,396 posts)like that for the risk corridors?
They could stabilize the ACA to the point where repealing and replacing would look stupid even to Rs.
Vinca
(50,269 posts)Average people are thrown to the wolves and some won't survive. This whole idea is foolish because the chances of the GOP ever passing a replacement are pretty much zero.
RestoreAmerica2020
(3,435 posts)The republikkklans and elfeogringo, the ugly American (Vicente fFox' aptly name for elrumpf) have had the threat of repeal of ACA over the American public for 9 yrs.....enough! Repeal it, do it! They'll own it and frankly won't care; don't care about any one except their greedy-selves. People out there, yes, I mean "you," you've seem to have forgotten that we didn't have the Affordable Care Act prior to Obama, so what did we strugglong Americans do? Survive the best say we could.... I say to republicans, trumpf, do your worst! Then, we have the dems, progressives, liberal's pleading, besieging them not to repeal and pass their mean health care bill; then, parading vulnerable people and terrible stories of pain and loss, all the while the repubs y trumpf are eating it up like evil dogs enjoying every morsel of misery that they're causing their fellow Americans..Basta! ENOGUH!
Demsrule86
(68,556 posts)kentuck
(111,085 posts)At the moment, Republicans say they want to "repeal" it but it won't take affect until some time in the future??
in other words, it is a meaningless political exercise.
stopbush
(24,396 posts)It will greatly impact the exchanges.
The emphasis will be on the ACA disappearing in short order, not on the ACA adapting and improving.
Gothmog
(145,152 posts)You cannot use reconciliation for this