Looking Forward. Looking Ahead.

[MineralMan]

Are we finally ready to start doing that? I sure as Hell am. Right now, there is no looming election. There are no candidates. But, if we do not start thinking about 2018 and 2020, instead of analyzing, reanalyzing and rending our clothing over what is now long past, those elections will be upon us and we will be caught, once again, looking in a mirror instead of through a window.

2016 is history. 2017 is ugly as Trump's triple chin. 2018? What about that? Are we analyzing congressional districts and looking at which Democratic districts need help to stay blue? Are we looking at them to see which current red districts can be flipped. This is the time when we should be doing that, if we hope to start turning things around.

I don't care who might run for President in 2020. That comes after the 2018 election. It has nothing to do with what we should be doing right now, and even less to do with who ran in 2016. We need to be talking about new names for 2018. We need to be worrying about regaining control of at least one house of Congress, for goodness' sake.

Trump is bad. We all know that. There are investigations going on. Maybe something will come from those, but we're not directly involved in that process. We can, however, be directly involved in our own local, state and congressional elections that will happen next year. It's not too early to start working on those, but it will soon enough be too late.

Let's forget yesterday. Let's deal with today. Let's plan like crazy for tomorrow.

[oberliner]

1. What are the key races for 2018 in your view?

Would be curious to get your insights into that.

[MineralMan]

4. I work in Minnesota on elections.

There are two districts here that are eminently flippable from red to blue. They came relatively close to flipping in 2016, but Trumpsters carried them. Right now, those districts are really unhappy with their representation.

MN-2 is currently represented by a Trumper, Jason Lewis, who squeaked through there, but who is skipping town halls and is nowhere to be seen in the district these days. That district is ready to flip. It's south of the Twin Cities, but part of the greater metro area. It's easily accessible and should get lots of attention. The district was R +2 percent in 2016.

MN-3, another R +2 district is currently held by Eric Paulsen, a relatively benign Republican, as Republicans go, but his margin went down in 2016. He's been in that office since 2009, and a good, strong Democrat with name recognition could kick his butt in 2018. Another Twin Cities metro area district, it is eminently flippable.

In MN-1, Tim Walz, a wishy-washy Democrat has held his seat since 2007, in a district that is R +5 otherwise. It's a rural district that spreads clear across the state, south of the Twin Cities. This district is extremely vulnerable to a Republican takeover, but no progressive Democrat would have a chance in it. Walz votes reliably with the Democratic Caucus, so we can work to help him retain the seat and save his vote.

In MN-6, Tom Emmer took over the seat formerly held by Michele (crazy-eyes) Bachmann. The district is rated at R +12. It's located in the Northeastern metro area. If Emmer runs again, he will win, so I wouldn't think we'd have much chance there, to be frank.

MN-8, represented by Rick Nolan, is vulnerable to a strong Republican candidate. Nolan, who is a good guy, is going to need a lot of support if the Republicans field a strong candidate and the district is currently just a D +1 district. It's a far northern district and will need plenty of volunteers from the metro area to help Nolan hold his seat, but I think we can win.

MN-4 and MN-5 are solid, urban Democratic districts, represented by Betty McCollumn and Keith Ellison. If ever there were two districts safely in blue territory, it is those two. I live in MN-4, and have supported Betty McCollum for over 12 years here. She'll win again, easily, and will run. So, I'll have time and energy to work elsewhere in 2018.

MN-7, represented by Colin Peterson, who has been in office since 1991, is a dangerous one. Peterson may well not run in 2018 and the district is R +12. Peterson holds his seat solely by being moderate. The district runs almost the full length of Minnesota's western border and is almost entirely rural. This one is worrisome if Peterson chooses to retire. In fact, it's very likely to flip red.

So, those are the districts in my state, and are the ones I will be working on. We also need to retake our state legislature, which we will probably do without too much difficulty. Our Democratic Governor is retiring after the 2018 election, so that race is going to require a lot of attention, too. We're gonna be busy here, trying to make some gains.

I believe that every DUer should have a list like the one above for his or her own state and be thinking about what he or she will do to help Democrats win in that state. Each of us, I believe, should be focused on elections that are within our own areas and should be willing to exert effort where it is needed to make gains in the 2018 election. Those are the preparations we should all be making right now, I believe. If we do not, we may not succeed.

Thanks for asking.

[oberliner]

6. Thanks for the response

Great info there!

I agree with your point about how important it is to get involved and informed with local and statewide elections.

[MineralMan]

7. It's just basic information.

Anyone can create such a list simply by Googling yourstate congressional delegation. The information on every person in office, their districts, etc. is all immediately available.

Then, it's a matter of understanding what that information means and how you can help where help is needed. It's not really difficult research, but I've found that almost nobody knows much, even about their own states' House members. Often, on DU, we're so focused on the President and national issues that we forget that we need to know even more about what is near us and who represents us.

It's so frustrating to see Democratic voter turnout drop dramatically in mid-term elections. Those elections are crucial to our gaining and maintaining a majority in Congress, but we don't, as a whole, seem to care much about that. That is why we lose. That is why all three branches of federal government are now controlled by the Republicans.

If we don't care, we will continue to lose. I simply cannot understand that sort of thinking. So, I keep posting about these things. It's one of the only things I can do outside of my own local area. I hope people will wake up and start working on what they can actually affect, rather than stressing out about what they cannot.

[oberliner]

8. The info is more than just the basics

It contains your own personal perceptions and insights, which is why it's always better to interact with someone (such as on DU) than just to Google things, in my experience.

Again, I am in complete agreement with respect to your broad points about local elections.

[ck4829]

2. Work on contingency plans

The 'system' in the form of the rigged voting machines, the tyrants of the electoral college, corrupt secretaries of state on the state level who certify 'elections', gerrymandering, disenfranchisement, and more is not our ally, but our enemy.

But, we do have work we can do beyond voting, which by all means we should not stop doing, but we also need to look 'outside' as well:

Deflate the cliches that give them symbolic capital
Crack the bully pulpit
Spread the word that they call it the 'greatest healthcare system in the world' is not because of it's ability to treat illnesses, injuries, and disabilities; but rather because it enforces social control
And let's realize that the House, Senate, and White House under Ryan, McConnell, and Trump are not political bodies befitting that of the US Constitution.

[hamsterjill]

3. We actually do already have some candidates in Texas.

Chris Perri in Texas is running against Lamar Smith and Beto O'Rourke is campaigning for Ted Cruz's seat.

I'm very happy to see both of these candidates and they are doing a good job of getting their names out there right now. Perri, in particular, is targeting many of the smaller rural events so that people can get to know him.

[MineralMan]

5. Excellent. The sooner things get started, the better.

Good luck to all Democrats in Texas and in every other state. We need to pick up seats, and we need to start working that a month ago.

[GeorgeGist]

9. Before rushing headlone into the future ...

perhaps we should study the past to see where we went wrong.

[MineralMan]

10. I know exactly where we went wrong. Too few Democrats

showed up to vote. That's what always goes wrong. In GA-6's special election, 40% of registered Democrats in that district did not vote.

Get that 40% out to vote and we'll win every last freaking time.

I can't get out the vote in Georgia. Georgia Democrats have to do that. I can't get the vote out anywhere but near where I live. So, that's what I do, as best as I am able.

That's the story the past tells. Too few Democrats who are registered to vote turn out to vote.