Surge in House Democratic Candidates Could Fuel a 2018 Wave Election
By Ed Kilgore at New York Magazine
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/surge-in-house-democratic-candidates-could-fuel-2018-wave.html
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“Wave” elections — those that produce a large swing in votes and congressional seats for one party — tend to develop slowly. There are a few factors that tell us if the weather is right for a wave election: They most often occur during midterm elections under unpopular presidents, when previous waves have given his party an unnaturally large number of seats. While conditions are right at the moment, it’s hard to forecast whether they’ll still be favorable in November 2018. One important factor, however, can be seen from a considerable distance: Are Democrats running in enough places to make broad gains possible if conditions are ripe?
A new study of campaign-finance filings from the Brookings Institution suggests Democrats are running for the House in unprecedented numbers: There were 78 early Republican challengers who had raised at least $5,000, which presaged the wave election that gave the GOP majority control in 2010. Democrats have 209. And these candidates are spread across the map, too: In 2009, the Republicans had mustered 50 legitimate candidates to challenge Democratic incumbents. The Democrats have doubled that.
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Contesting a wide swath of House districts does not itself produce a “wave election.” But it does mean Democrats will likely be in a position to take full advantage of the opportunities that may exist.
In a discussion of this data, Kyle Kondik notes that at present there are probably not enough highly vulnerable GOP House seats to produce a Democratic takeover, using the House ratings published by Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball:
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