Nate Silver: Trump approval by month (per 538 average):

[MelissaB]

Link to tweet

I'm looking forward to numbers in the 20's. Is that even possible?

[Wounded Bear]

1. He actually went up in July...

by 1% of the margin of error.

[steve2470]

2. yes it's possible, Nixon got there back in the seventies and didn't GWB get there too ? nt

[lapfog_1]

3. not likely

possible, especially if something like the pee tapes became public.

But right now, despite all of the evidence of collusion and obstruction of justice, I think the deplorables just won't let go of their guy... they represent about 20% of the adult public and maybe 40% of republicans. Then there are the die hard republicans that will just never answer a poll honestly... I mean they know he is a fraud and a crook, but they will just never admit it out loud.

31 to 33 percent is the floor on this.

Oh, unless of a market crash and unemployment spike.

[uponit7771]

5. Red Don will have someone urinate on him in middle of times square and his cult members will still

... support him and he will have no shame.

This is the same guy who's a sexual predator, he has no shame ... only cares about what's legal

[MelissaB]

6. I don't think he even cares about what's legal. I think it's what he can get away with.

Maybe I'm wrong.

[uponit7771]

8. RIGHT !!! Better stated.

[MelissaB]

7. We may be close to his floor because of Fox, Drudge, Brietbart, etc.

I really hope this isn't the case, though. I'd like to think that other Americans will wake up.

[lapfog_1]

11. he never did exceptionally well in the primaries

just better than the other "losers".

He attracts the people that are "smash mouth"... the people who have this sort of bumper sticker



That's around 40% of republicans. Another 20% will stay with him because they are just loyal repukes, even though they KNOW he is an incompetent asshole.

And that gives him a "base" of around 30% of all Americans (or rather, all Americans that care about politics).

[Alice11111]

17. I don't think pee tapes matter. His sexual predator bragging

Didn't make the deplorables leave him, which was far worse IMHO...without consent. Most denied their lying ears and eyes. I heard them.

Nonetheless, I hope you are right! It will take a lot for a market crash. The way Wall Street sees it, they want tax cuts and Deregulation. If DT'S impeached or taken out by the 25th, so much the better...they get Pence. Moyers going after Pence is important.

[GeoWilliam750]

23. They will support Donald Trump without question

Until Rupert Murdoch withdraws his support of Donald Trump.

At this point, only one man's vote matters in the United States, and it belongs to Rupert Murdoch.

[Alice11111]

29. CNN was just showing the Fox & Friends clip wherein

they promulgate their deliberate fabrication about who made the release to Wikileaks. I'm thinking these amoral, lying imbeciles indirectly run our country now. Most of their audience doesn't even know the difference between a journalist and Sean Hannity. Until Fox is taken down, I don't see a lot happening.

Mueller no doubt is credible and will do a good job, but the Fox & Friends clan has already taken him down as a leftist, who hired pissed off Hillary doners. The Trumpsters, when interviewed, echo that view/lie. They vote.

It isn't all gloom & doom as Congress ignored him on Russian sanctions, at least. Now, he is attacking Congress, which is good. I Hope he continues to piss them off.

[uponit7771]

4. Nixon had 24% approval, yes just 15 points less than Trumps, after he resigned !! Trump isn't going

... to have these numbers anytime soon but if he gets them and keeps them for a month or so then most likely he's toast.

[Cosmocat]

9. 45 could have a -99% approval rating

Do a live shoot having Putin sexually pleasuring on him on John Wayne's grave while spitting on a stack of guns and the House won't even put him up on charges for impeachment if the Rs have control.

[uponit7771]

10. Yeap, found out recently 11 of the 13 republicans on the judicial commity voted AGAINST impeaching

... Nixon

[MiddleClass]

13. That's 2, were getting there

[Cosmocat]

15. And, they are even bigger partisan assholes today

than they were then ...

That dynamic aside, Putin has his hooks in more members of congress than people will get, particularly R leadership. I suspect that there will be a D or two, too, so if it the whole thing unravels, it will be washed as a "both sides were in it" brush.

[Old Terp]

20. And one was the father

Of the current Governor of Maryland (who refused to support Trump).

[Alice11111]

18. I pretty much agree with your absurdity.

[zipplewrath]

12. 19 months

Slope is fairly constant right now. Extrapolating that slope gets one to 19 more months before it's below 30%. It's a bit below 1% per month so....

0% is only 3 years away.

Yeah, I know, there is a floor out there somewhere. 20%? 18?

[MiddleClass]

14. I am hoping, Mueller doesn't allow it to get that far

Then we will be talking about, the lying Michael Pence

[zipplewrath]

16. Dubious

Not sure he'll find that much on Donald that he can indict for. Congress won't do anything. And too many folks to fall on their swords to protect him. And I'd bet ya Mueller takes at least 18 months to get to anything that we'll see.

[MiddleClass]

25. He just brought in, white collar criminal prosecutor specialist today

Wherever the target is, it sounds like they're growing down, we can only hope who it is

[Alice11111]

19. I wish he would do a preliminary report to slow this Titanic down.

If he takes 2 years to achieve perfection, there may not be anything left.

[MiddleClass]

26. The quieter the better, it usually means indictments are being prepared

Preliminary report, usually means just, complete report.

My fingers are crossed

[GeoWilliam750]

24. Here's Gallup

http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx

Although at the low end of the range for the moment, it has been pretty steady for the last two months. Getting even another two percent would be quite an accomplishment.

[Awsi Dooger]

21. Yeah, but here's the part Nate is leaving out

Trump's approval is essentially unchanged from election day, at least among the ones who participated that day and also responded to the national exit poll.

Trump's approval in that exit poll was 38% favorable and 60% unfavorable

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls

Hard to believe he's stayed almost exactly where he was given all the lies and unhinged tweets and damage to the country, but that's where we are.

[MiddleClass]

28. Deplorable type public opinion turns like an aircraft carrier

Campaign – excited. – 3 months
Wins election – euphoric – 3 months
forms White House – yes, we won – 3 months
going to happen – okay, wait for it – 3 months
what's going on – I'll give him until – 3 months
maybe I've made mistake – I'm thinking – 3 months
oh shit, hope no one notices – if I hide – 3 months
boy I screwed up – no interest, no more – 3 months
impeach The bastard

[Azathoth]

22. You don't need an advanced algorithm to fit a curve to that data

[mucifer]

27. That's depressing.