Vox - In the key 2018 battlegrounds, Trump's support is as high as ever

[TomCADem]

The gist of the article is that it does not really matter that Trump's approval has slipped under 40 percent. Most of the decline is in areas that he lost. In purple states, his support is unchanged. Thus, we really need to get to 80 percent disapproval before we can really start moving the needle on winning back Congress, because all we are doing is running up the score in areas that are solidly blue. In other areas where Fox News and Brietbart are strong, they think that Trump is the greatest President ever.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/4/16085892/trump-support-battleground-districts

For the president’s critics, these slipping approval numbers seem like vindication. They show that Americans aren’t blind to the disorder in the White House — that at least some Trump supporters are second-guessing their president.

But what does this mean in practical terms? American politics, by design, has never perfectly followed public opinion. After all, Trump never had a majority of Americans rooting for him. He won the Electoral College but lost the popular vote. What’s important isn’t his popularity nationwide but his approval rate in key parts of the country.

Democrats, for one, hope that the growing disenchantment with the president will translate into congressional victories come 2018. But according to an analysis of more than 50,000 respondents of Vox/SurveyMonkey polling, the prospects of a midterm Democratic surge still look shaky.

Most of the decline in Trump approval, it turns out, occurred in congressional districts that are already solidly red or solidly blue. In the closest Republican districts, opinions of the president haven’t budged at all over the past six months. Overall, Americans may be growing weary of Trump’s chaotic administration — but it seems the Americans who will matter the most politically next year have yet to change their minds.

[greeny2323]

1. Exactly

This is why I favor impeachment of Trump and replacement by Pence. Trump has a political following.

[Garrett78]

3. A cult following, in fact.

Trump really could shoot someone on 5th Avenue in broad daylight and not lose a supporter. It's the truest thing he ever said.

[Loki Liesmith]

2. This isn't really true

His numbers have been slipping in battleground states. Just not as much as elsewhere.

But everyone needs a hot take I guess.

[stevenleser]

4. This is not correct. First, they measured districts not states

Overall, Trump is down statewide by large amounts in places like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Picking out individual districts in those states as Vox has done won't help Trump.

Second, their analysis conflicts with other analysis of those same districts.

[Cicada]

5. Thanks for talking me down

You thought it through better than I did.

But of course in the end it's going to come down to how Trump does with the all-important milk people vote.