Study by Republican consulting firm: Trump's base is shrinking.

[kstewart33]

Firehouse Strategies is a Republican consulting firm that "interviewed 2,901 likely midterm voters in those same 4 states – Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania – with a special interest in Trump’s favorability, his perceived honesty, and expectations for success. Our data shows Trump losing support inside the Republican Party and a noticeable drop in his perceived honesty. Just 6 months in office, Trump is getting into dangerously low territory in key swing states."

Key conclusions include:

Trump’s base of support has shrunk from 35.3% of voters who have a “strongly favorable” view of him in April to only 28.6% today. Notably, much of that erosion is among Republicans: Strongly favorable views among GOP voters dropped from 54.1% to 44.9%, while unfavorable views increased from 20.5% to 27.9%.

KEY POINT: Trump’s base is shrinking. He cannot take continued GOP support for granted in swing states.

Nearly half of voters (48.3%) believe Trump lies intentionally to mislead people, up from 43.4% in April. For Congressional Republicans, 51.8% now believe the same about them, up from 45.7% in April. Only 14.6% now believe Trump never lies, and only 9.1% believe the same about GOP congressmen/women. Today, only 5% of Republicans we surveyed believe Trump never lies, down from 31.3% in April.

KEY POINT: Trump’s false statements are eroding his credibility with voters, including Republicans.

Other key points: "Voters are losing faith in Trump’s ability to deliver on his big campaign promises." And "Failure to deliver major legislative victories is raising the prospects of an electoral setback for Republicans next year."

See study details and supporting data at: http://firehousestrategies.com/new-firehouse0ptimus-survey-trumps-shrinking-base/

[Hortensis]

1. I don't know about shrinking, but their "STRONGLY" unfavorable tops their

STRONGLY favorable now! They'd vote for him all over again, of course, but guessing replacement of their happy enthusiasm with angry frustration has to be felt by other conservatives and right-leaning independents. Not a small thing for the tail that's been wagging conservative neighborhoods for a long time now.

[Beartracks]

2. Of course they'd vote for him again. They're still Republicans.

To them, he's still better than ANY Democrat.

I know people who already did that: "Trump's awful. But I voted for him anyway because I couldn't stand Hillary."

So go figure. His approval drop is not necessarily going to translate to a similar reduction in re-election votes from Republicans.

Overall, I'd much rather see approval for the entire "Republican Brand" tank.

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[marylandblue]

3. Depends a lot on who we run

People didn't like Hillary's personality. And 25 years of negative attacks against her took their toll. Run somebody more likeable with less baggage and some will switch.

[Hortensis]

4. Makes sense, but so far no one half as qualified as Hill is on the radar,

and frankly, besides always wanting truly competent pols who mostly share my goals, electing her would be a spit in the malicious, lying, inexcusably irresponsible faces of the irredeemable ones. They owe us not just a Merrick Garland SCOTUS but a Hillary presidency.

But we'll see. Other good Dems will present themselves, and she might well decide not to run, but for now I have Hillary in my pocket.