I'm Going Out on a Limb Here. I Predict Trump will Resign by the End of the Year: Scenario Included

[louis c]

My Prediction:

Sometime between Thanksgiving and Christmas 2017, Donald Trump will address the nation. He will open with a string of grievances, which will include but not be limited to, the press distorting his actions, the "deep state" undermining him, the Republicans abandoning him, the Democrats obstructing him, the intelligence agencies conspiring against him and probably many more.

This will be as a result of pending indictments against many of Trump's associates and family members. The investigation not only threatens them, but the Trump businesses as well. His frustration that he can't control events and that circumstances are spiraling into areas that cause him fear will be overwelming.

As a result, his speech will then lead him to declare scores of Presidential pardons, which will include dozens of the aforementioned family, friends and associates, effectively shutting down the Russian investigation.

Trump then will announce his resignation, with the understanding that Pence, once he is sworn in as President will then pardon Trump (I.E. Gerald Ford's Nixon pardon).

I really can't see this thing ending any other way.

[demmiblue]

1. *

[louis c]

4. I tried to post this last night

but three times it bounced back. I just didn't want to try it again without knowing it would go through.

[GreenEyedLefty]

20. Pretty much.

I like Carl Sagan's missive on "The Pale Blue Dot." I suppose it's a more poetic version of the above.

[bigtree]

2. ...

[oasis]

3. Mary had a little plane

In it she loved to frisk
She was such a silly girl
Her little *

[Orsino]

5. I've been saying for two years that he's about to quit.

I keep being wrong, but one day he will abandon this farce.

[yallerdawg]

6. From your keyboard...

to God's ear!!!

The greatest single thing America could do for the entire world now is to rid it of the Trump dynasty.

Let's belittle him, hurt his brand, disrespect him every way possible, oppose everything he proposes (of course, he's a semi-Republican) - and let us not forget those unbelievably deplorable assholes who contributed to putting this unqualified blithering idiot in office!

[classykaren]

30. +1000

[leftofcool]

7. No he won't

He wants to run against a Democrat.

[louis c]

13. But he doesn't want to see Don Jr and Jerod indicted and go to jail

[Bettie]

24. As long as it isn't him in the hot seat

do you really think he cares?

He'd gladly throw anyone under the bus to save his own useless ass.

[leftofcool]

26. He doesn't care

[NewJeffCT]

35. He can pardon them

and still stay president

[no_hypocrisy]

54. Unsure whether Trump wants to run for re-election in 2020 against ANOTHER

Democrat WHO ISN'T HILLARY CLINTON.

One Trick Pony.

Suppose it's Bernie. Or Kamala. Or Chuck Schumer. Or anybody-but-Hillary. It won't be that easy.

His base will vote for him, no question. But what about the disaffected Republicans and Independents? Even if Russia started today, it can't reach all the voting machines by 2020.

[Garrett78]

59. I'm not completely convinced Bernie would win.

If Bernie was the Dem candidate, some third party candidate would do quite well.

Otherwise, yes, it's hard to believe Trump could win in 2020. Of course, it was hard to believe he could win in 2016.

[MarianJack]

64. I believe that Sanders would...

...take a coast to coast thumping that would make 1972 look like 1960.

I don't believe that he has mental toughness, self discipline or the just plain smarts to ever withstand a national general election campaign.

If I were to say how I REALLY feel about Sanders in THIS forum, than I guarantee a flame war and an alert, so I won't.

I'll simply day that in my opinion, the road back does not include a non Democrat who'd be 79 on election day.

PEACE!

[Not Ruth]

8. It is all on Mueller

Either Trump himself goes down the indict/prosecute/impeach/resign/jail/pardon road, or he skates and is untouchable. Mueller is guaranteed to indict someone, pray that it is Trump.

[Squinch]

9. I think this is a possibility. He hates this job, and he's being forced to see what a stupid lying

sack most people think he is. It clashes badly with his self image, and narcissists are all about preserving that self image.

If the investigations get close enough and as the truth of his skeeviness becomes inescapable even for some of his supporters (some will never see it) he might run.

Oh, please, let it be so.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

10. Very possible. Also possible is that he might decide that the best way to

He might decide that the best way to protect his brand and his family is to pardon everybody who had any dealings with them or him, pardon McCONnell & Ryan, and fight out the impeachment in the House and trial in the Senate to give his gang as much time as possible to get ready for non-Presidency grifting.

I think it would be great if he were convicted in the Senate. It would be a first and it would cement his place in history as the worst President ever.

[MarianJack]

11. I agree that he'll be cone by year's end and most of your scenario.

I think that also the Republicans/teabaggers will be behind it because they don't want to be saddled with HIM for mid terms.

OUR responsibility as Democrats is th make sure we tie EVERY SINGLE REPUBLICAN/TEABAGGER directly to Donald Trump.it was they who foisted HIM onto this country!

PEACE!

[louis c]

58. You've got that right............

..........thanks

[mgardener]

12. No limb......

This is the way it would have happened had Nixon not resigned.

He got away with it. And we the people, let him get away with it. For the good of the country we were told. By republicans.
I always felt that the Republicans were emboldened by what they got away with.

We cannot let them get away with it this time. They tried to impeach Clinton for lying about sex.
Donald Trump and his family colluded with the Russian govevernment.
We the people cannot allow it this time.
Please. Resist.

[Scarsdale]

14. I agree.

They HAVE to pay for all the damage they have done and are still doing. I want their family finances drained, paying for lawyers. THEN I want to see them put in prison like the criminals they are. It is time the gop faced reality, they promoted the worst candidate EVER to run for the presidency. tRump seems to think it is all a reality show.

[tblue37]

23. Don't forget that the *Kennedys* gave Ford the Profile in Courage award specifically for

pardoning Nixon.

[thesquanderer]

33. re: "For the good of the country we were told."

Nixon was pardoned.

Everyone involved in Iran-Contra under Reagan was pardoned.

Obama ignored the war crimes of the Bush-Cheney administration ("We tortured some folks...", really?), saying we had to look forward.

At some point, we have to stop letting the Republicans get away with doing whatever they want to do.

[GreenEyedLefty]

15. I think Pence will be caught up in the Mueller dragnet

and Trump will see to it that Pence resigns before he does. *If* this happens, then Trump will appoint a family member to be VP, then resign. Originally I thought it would be Ivanka... not so sure now.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

46. Trump cannot simply appoint a new vice president.

He or she has to be approved by both houses of Congress.

[GreenEyedLefty]

49. Mea culpa.

Nevertheless, I cannot imagine Trump allowing Pence to succeed him, to the extent that he can help it. If he goes down, he's taking everyone with him.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

50. Of course, he might well try

to appoint someone if for some reason Pence leaves/is removed from office.

Son-in-law Jared would probably be his choice.

Fortunately, members of Congress will know what the procedure is.

[tiptonic]

16. i think

'I think therefore i am'. Sorry i got carried away. I think u nailed it.

[Sunlei]

18. He isn't a quitter.

[underpants]

31. I agree. He won't quit

His father trained to be a "killer", he'll fight to the very end.

[tblue37]

19. If he pardons everyone, they can then be subpoenaed to testify about the

suspected federal crimes, and they will lose the right to plead the Fifth. If they lied, the pardon wouldn't protect them from a perjury charge.

[louis c]

48. That's why Trump will resign and have Pence pardon him

[True Blue American]

68. New York AGs

Are waiting in the wings. They have too much evidence against the whole family.

No pardon for that.

Do not forget Trump has no friends at all, just toadies who will desert him in a New York minute to save their own hides!

[Generic Brad]

21. He's too cowardly to address the nation on television over this

He will tweet it instead.

[Pachamama]

22. I said last November he won't make it till the end of Summer 2017

I guess that officially means by September 21st and the end of summer and the Fall Solstice...

I still believe that...

[dalton99a]

25. My guess is he'll issue a bunch of "Christmas pardons" for the gang this year

and "retire" with a big speech sometime after the next SOTU address

[sharedvalues]

27. Yes. But state crimes will imprison him.

Also Democrats have to be ready to explain how the GOP and their lies and hatemongering created Trump.

[DFW]

28. I wish I could share your optimism

I think there is one thing and one thing only that gets Trump to lose enough support among congressional Republicans to get them to set the end of his presidency in motion (he'll never resign on his own unless he thinks it will stave off a prosecution that is sure to convict him). If the Republicans see polls that indicate they will lose both houses of Congress decisively to Democratic majorities, they will draft articles of impeachment, even if it's for littering while in office, and McTurtle's senate will vote to remove from office. Barring that, I think he could order a nuclear strike on Boston, and he'd still find (with a little help from his friends, like last time) enough electoral votes to keep him where he is.

[secondwind]

29. Trump cannot be pardoned for money laundering.. and that is where Mueller will find the path to

prosecution... They have gone over all the shell companies, all the dealings of Trump and Kushner, etc.. and this is going to be YUGE.

Pence cannot pardon Trump for money laundering.

[NewJeffCT]

36. He can be pardoned from any federal crimes

If one of the states go after him and indicts him for money laundering at the state level, then he could not be pardoned.

[cheyanne]

32. Any civil officer of the government can be impeached.

As it will come out many knew about the connections with Russia and the cover-up. Pence, Sessions, Ryan, Tillerson, Ross, etc.

In Watergate, 40-some people were indicted or jailed.

[humbled_opinion]

34. It will never happen

His ego wouldn't allow it, when he pulls crowds like he just did in WV it shores up his hubris, he eats that shit up. Any crime found he could get impeached but I doubt the Repub house would even consider it, of course it becomes the dominate campaign issue for 2018 our side saying hold him accountable elect us, but that comes with risk and if in fact we win the House we can certainly impeach him but again he won't resign and the Senate would require 2/3 to remove and sorry but that simply won't happen. I believe his minions are already beginning a push to get a special counsel to investigate the leaks, the Clinton campaign, and the previous administration unmasking, they do this to muddy the waters and point fingers, political tactic may backfire on them. Regarding the Nixon comparison, Nixon was in second term and was deeply unliked by most Republicans in Congress mainly because of his environmental record, this could never happen to Trump because the hard Right will never abandon him, ever and the moderate Repubs are scared shitless of losing that base, it would end their political party.

[infullview]

37. Disagree

His popularity is dropping and is now around 38%. The republicans have already started distancing themselves from him or outright ignoring him. Mueller is going to make an example of Trump to show the world that we will not tolerate foreign interference. After he is indicted the republicans will bail on him like lemmings over a cliff. The real question, I think, will be how deep does this go and will there be anyone left in the chain of command in the republican party left to assume the roll of president.

[humbled_opinion]

56. Like I said never gonna happen

The 38% you are speaking of are the very rabid heart of the Repub party it is the insane base, no Republican gets elected if the base stays home and they all know that. Good luck trying to convince them that Trump colluded or enhanced the foreign interference. You can already hear the drum beat by the base on the right that this investigation is rigged, there will never be an indictment of the President anyway, possibly Jr. and for sure Flynn, but it takes real in your face evidence and if the evidence was that clear it would have already been out and impeachment would have started. Like I said comparing this to Nixon is apples and oranges because Nixon was hated by the Republicans anyway over his increased environmental regulations, the Democrats were really just along for the ride on that one. But hey I could be wrong I got plenty of popcorn to watch it all unfold anyway.

[Garrett78]

60. That's the problem for establishment Republicans.

They all know full well that they've created - over the last several decades - a monster, and that monster commands the support of a plurality of Republicans (if not a majority).

That's why gerrymandering, voter suppression, propaganda and reliance upon kowtowing Dems has been and will continue to be so vitally important. The base of their party is batshit crazy, and that base worships Trump. Even when he openly insults them by saying he could murder someone and not lose a supporter.

[louis c]

62. Let the economy go into a cyclical slump and Trump will be in the twenties

Last edited Sun Aug 6, 2017, 09:28 PM - Edit history (1)

you know, a 0.7% GDP growth in a quarter , a jobs growth number in single digits (like 7,000 jobs created in a month), a stock market that corrects a normal 10%.

His morons won't know whether of not it's cyclical, and Trump can't blame Obama, since he already took credit for the earlier, positive numbers.

At that point, Trump is cooked.

[Garrett78]

63. I don't expect Trump to get re-elected, but that doesn't counter the point I was making.

Trump (and those like him) command the support of a plurality (if not a majority) of the Republican electorate. Therefore, the Republican Party has to be careful not to run anti-Trump candidates if they hope to win. They run the risk of Trump's base either not voting or voting 3rd party.

[humbled_opinion]

66. Yes that is it.

I think it serves a good purpose because it will fracture the Repub party in two and they will never have full control of anything ever again.

[humbled_opinion]

65. What makes you think

the economy will tank? All of the signs point to robust growth ahead.

[MurrayDelph]

38. Pence is too selfish a son of a bitch

The Nixon pardon is a good party of why Ford was never elected.

Pence would likely let Trump believe he would be pardoned, but wouldn't actually do it.

[dalton99a]

39. Doubtful Pence would risk the wrath of the Trump cult

[Garrett78]

57. Agreed. A plurality, if not a majority, of Republicans worship Trump.

That's why I think impeachment is unlikely. Republicans in Congress are well aware of how enamored their constituents are with Trump.

[bitterross]

40. Not a chance your whole scenario will play out

You are making the mistake of thinking like a logical, reasonable, sane person. Trump is none of those things.

The pardons are the most likely thing to actually happen. Trump resigning - not going to happen. He is not built that way. He will never admit fault for anything. Resigning would mean he would have to admit failure to himself. He is not able to do that.

He will ride it all the way to the end blaming everyone but himself for his fall. If he is impeached and then convicted in the Senate he will be able to believe it was all the fault of some conspiracy between the Deep State, the Democrats, the media and the intelligence community.

[TNNurse]

41. Ever since the election

I have seen posts in lots of places that promised that "this is what will end him". They include the words "devastating" and "the end" and phrases that imply that something they are releasing is unforgivable and he cannot survive it.

I am not seeing any of that happen. I mutter "promises, promises" every day.

I do have hope in Mueller's investigation, though. I do wish it would have a little more speed before he does much more damage.

The only problem with him leaving however it happens is the long line of intolerable people who could take his place...Pence! Ryan! Hatch! Tillerson! Mnuchin! OMG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Boomerproud]

45. The ONLY good thing about the intolerable people (I agree with you) is that there is no cult

of personality with any of them. I totally believe in the "cult of personality" driving 45, but between his looks, personality and actions I dare anyone to explain it to me. BTW TNNurse, I am on board with your view that I am also sick and tired of "
It's almost here! He's cooked!" Get back to me when it happens, OK people?

[Ford_Prefect]

42. While I agree Trump may resign it won't be by year's end. He'll fight to the last fatuous tweet.

Then he'll escape to one of his overseas Golf resorts where Putin's influence will prevent legal action or extradition.

I have doubts about the Pence strategy in that he is under investigation as well and may not pass muster.

He's under investigation for activities during his time as Governor and for probable ties to Paul Manafort's Russian connection, among other dubious adventures.

The GOP will need someone to play the Ford role who is absolutely clean of any possible indictment. Pence fails that measure.

[Fritz Walter]

43. I don't believe in coincidence

Your scenario would explain the appearance of a rumor that Pence is exploring a presidential campaign in 2020.

Parallels to Ford's decision to pardon Nixon are inescapable to anyone who studies history. Ford's campaign loss to Carter was partly attributable to the pardon. Pence has read those tea leaves, and is lining up donors and allies.

[mopinko]

44. please god just tell me this will lead to

taking his fucking name off buildings.
we so want that ugly trump sign gone from downtown chi.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

47. I can't see him actually going on television

to address the nation over anything at all.

I also don't see him issuing a lot of pardons, because to do so would be to admit that all the recipients had broken the law, and he clearly thinks that he and all those surrounding him are above the law in the first place.

At some point, sooner rather than later I hope, he'll tweet his intention to take the rest of the term off as a vacation. Maybe he'll plan a three year long tour of all his golf courses around the world.

[SweetieD]

51. That scenario presumes that Trump is measured, calculating and has a shred of common sense

things which we can't presume. This man has no dignity. If he leaves the wh he will make it w complete spectacle and drag a lot of people along with him.

[Billb93]

52. Pardons

Only after he pardons his family and others. Pence Wii have to agree to pardon him as well.

[NCjack]

53. Alt-scenario: #45 escalates.

He goes to 3 scoops and 3 pieces of chocolate cake. By October, his supper will be a gallon of ice cream and a whole chocolate cake. Natural laws of science will harvest him before giving the State of the Union speech.

[Freelancer]

55. Two words: Bone Spurs -nt

[adigal]

61. I agree with all of your scenario except...

I think he will resign this month.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

67. Other Scenarios

1) Don brazens it out: Fires Muller, pardons the indicted, asks Congress rhetorically what the Hell they'll do about it.

2) Something sinister happens (aka Reichstag Fire): Russia induces a proxy to stage a 9-11 like attack; incites North Korea to do something stupid; causes all Hell to break loose in Europe. We rally round the flag, rally around the president, and give up our remaining rights.

3) Something unexpected happens. Hurricane. Earthquake. Tsunami. Some crisis or event clearly beyond control to which Don has to react. That reaction could redefine him - for better or for worse.

4) It gets worse Don is indicted. Don's supporters decide to make their wishes known with firearms - leading to a state ranging anywhere from mass unrest to civil war.

5) WW3 North Korea does something stupid outside the realm of scenario 2 above. We take countermeasures. China gets pissed. Then Russia decides its an opportune moment to retake Ukraine and the Baltic States. It goes to Hell from there.