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DemocratSinceBirth

(99,708 posts)
Thu Aug 10, 2017, 03:05 PM Aug 2017

A primer course for internet generals- What War Between North Korea and the U.S. Might Look Like

1. Can’t the U.S. try a surgical strike?

It probably wouldn’t work well enough. North Korea’s missiles and nuclear facilities are dispersed and hidden throughout the country’s mountainous terrain. Failing to hit them all would leave some 10 million people in Seoul, 38 million people in the Tokyo vicinity and tens of thousands of U.S. military personnel in northeast Asia vulnerable to missile attacks -- with either conventional or nuclear warheads. Even if the U.S. managed to wipe out everything, Seoul would still be vulnerable to attacks from North Korea’s artillery.

2. Why might Kim go nuclear?

“Even a limited strike” by the U.S. “would run the risk of being understood by the North Koreans to be the beginning of a much larger strike, and they might choose to use their nuclear weapons,” said Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia nonproliferation program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies. Somehow, the U.S. would need to signal to both North Korea and China -- Pyongyang’s main ally and trading partner -- that a surgical military strike is limited, and that they should avoid nuclear retaliation.


4. Does that mean all-out war is the best U.S. option?

A full-scale invasion would be necessary to quickly take out North Korea’s artillery as well as its missile and nuclear programs. Yet any sign of an imminent strike -- such as a buildup of U.S. firepower, mobilization of South Korean and Japanese militaries and the evacuation of American citizens in the region -- could prompt North Korea to strike preemptively. China and Russia may also be sucked in. “Realistically, war has to be avoided,” said John Delury, an assistant professor of international studies at Yonsei University in South Korea. “When you run any cost-benefit analysis, it’s insanity.”

...


5. How might North Korea retaliate?

The most immediate reaction would likely be massive artillery fire on Seoul and its surroundings. North Korean artillery installations along the border can be activated faster than air or naval assets and larger ballistic missiles that can target South Korean, Japanese or American bases in the region with nuclear, chemical and biological weapons. Those countries have ballistic-missile-defense systems in place but can’t guarantee they will shoot down everything. Japan has begun offering advice to its citizens on what to do in the event a missile lands near them -- essentially try to get under ground -- and U.S. firms are marketing missile shelters. While it’s unclear if North Korea can successfully target U.S. cities like Denver and Chicago with a nuclear ICBM, it’s similarly unknown if U.S. defense systems can strike it down -- adding to American anxieties.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-09/what-u-s-north-korea-hostilities-might-look-like-quicktake-q-a




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A primer course for internet generals- What War Between North Korea and the U.S. Might Look Like (Original Post) DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2017 OP
Not so simple, huh ProudLib72 Aug 2017 #1
It would require the largest effort since the first Korean War and perhaps WW ll DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2017 #4
Lindsey "I think no one knows I'm gay" Graham said it is OK adigal Aug 2017 #16
Just my opinion, but... ProudLib72 Aug 2017 #17
Interesting thought...sounds plausible nt adigal Aug 2017 #18
"Surgical Strike" Girard442 Aug 2017 #2
Trump might try to intimidate them by taking out an airstrip. DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2017 #5
K & R bronxiteforever Aug 2017 #3
"I didn't know nuclear war was so complicated!" fierywoman Aug 2017 #6
"Who knew nuclear war was so complicated?" fierywoman Aug 2017 #7
The entire freakout forgets one thing...NK has NO nuclear missile warheads! Get a grip!! Fred Sanders Aug 2017 #8
I believe they do LeftInTX Aug 2017 #10
If they did do you not think Little Kim would be glouting about it and making REAL threat?? Fred Sanders Aug 2017 #19
If they don't know, they're well on their way. Denial helps no one. WhiskeyGrinder Aug 2017 #14
Devices yes. Warheads - maybe not. ThoughtCriminal Aug 2017 #15
Plutonimum is impossible to miniturize enough. You need uranium, and no evidence they have done a Fred Sanders Aug 2017 #20
I'm sure the North Koreans will greet us as liberators too. Canoe52 Aug 2017 #9
NK will quickly turn it into a ground war. roamer65 Aug 2017 #11
Trump likes insanity Nt BootinUp Aug 2017 #12
No shit dalton99a Aug 2017 #22
War in this case..IMO..would be incredibly....stupid!!!!!!!!! Stuart G Aug 2017 #13
Militarily there is no good option dalton99a Aug 2017 #21

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,708 posts)
4. It would require the largest effort since the first Korean War and perhaps WW ll
Thu Aug 10, 2017, 03:12 PM
Aug 2017

“Realistically, war has to be avoided,” said John Delury, an assistant professor of international studies at Yonsei University in South Korea. “When you run any cost-benefit analysis, it’s insanity.”

 

adigal

(7,581 posts)
16. Lindsey "I think no one knows I'm gay" Graham said it is OK
Thu Aug 10, 2017, 10:40 PM
Aug 2017

For Trump to attack NK preemptively without Congress' go ahead.
And BTW, none of us care about Graham's sex life, but I think they blackmail him.

ProudLib72

(17,984 posts)
17. Just my opinion, but...
Thu Aug 10, 2017, 10:44 PM
Aug 2017

I think Graham said that so that the GOP (and tRump) could blame Dems for not wanting to stand up to NK. tRump is already talking about how weak Obama was toward NK and how he is going to be the one to take them on. When he is thwarted, he gets to say it was those meddling Dems who stood in the way.

ThoughtCriminal

(14,046 posts)
15. Devices yes. Warheads - maybe not.
Thu Aug 10, 2017, 10:28 PM
Aug 2017

Okay the Trump appointee at DIA disagrees, but looking at the NK nuclear tests to date, I see little evidence that they can build a device that can be delivered in anything smaller than a railroad car. If you can fire a slug of plutonium into another chunk of Pu down a mine shaft with a big enough cannon to get it over 1 km/sec, you can get an inefficient, but very real nuclear explosion that will register on monitoring sites. But you can't take that design and mount on a missile.

If North Korea ever attacks the with a nuclear weapon, the delivery system is far more likely to be a jumbo shipping container than a ballistic missile.

Is the DIA assessment wrong? I don't know, but they admit to lots of gaps in the intelligence data and it seems to give North Korean claims rather than real knowledge. We have a long history of taking worst case estimates as reliable.

And then there is a difference between estimated existing vs. potential future capabilities.



Fred Sanders

(23,946 posts)
20. Plutonimum is impossible to miniturize enough. You need uranium, and no evidence they have done a
Fri Aug 11, 2017, 10:42 AM
Aug 2017

uranium test.

Well said. I also trust the scientists and not the media and generals or politicians.

roamer65

(36,744 posts)
11. NK will quickly turn it into a ground war.
Thu Aug 10, 2017, 09:25 PM
Aug 2017

That is how to make it a protracted battle and is the only scenario that favors them, especially if they have Chinese assistance.

Stuart G

(38,410 posts)
13. War in this case..IMO..would be incredibly....stupid!!!!!!!!!
Thu Aug 10, 2017, 09:44 PM
Aug 2017

Beyond Stupid.....Idiotic, Dumb...very dumb....
....... insensitive, ridiculous, fucking crazy, beyond absurdity, thoughtless, and...whatever else could describe something so against everyones own interest....us, them, and the rest of the world..

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