Tony Schwartz: Trump will resign & declare victory before Mueller & Congress leave him no choice

[highplainsdem]

Link to tweet

The circle is closing at blinding speed. Trump is going to resign and declare victory before Mueller and congress leave him no choice.

Link to tweet

Trump's presidency is effectively over. Would be amazed if he survives till end of the year. More likely resigns by fall, if not sooner.

[MyOwnPeace]

1. Oh dear sweet Lord,

PLEASE make this be true!

(we all need someone to believe in!)

[monmouth4]

60. OR, if he resists, he will be arrested. It would be tawdry to do it in the WH but CD, perfect..n/t

[Initech]

65. He'll blame the Koch Bros and Mitch McConnell to save his own ass.

You can bet on that.

[Cosmocat]

2. Why on earth would he resign

And walk away from the power of pardon?

[shanny]

8. Because he believes he has done nothing wrong?

I think he does believe that, and his blather about "fake news" and unfairness is based on it.

[Cosmocat]

10. Then why would he resign?

As the op suggests to get out before Mueller and Congress gets him?

[shanny]

17. I think he will resign to avoid "losing".

Kind of a "declare victory / take my ball and go home" thing. Even though he thinks it is all a grossly unfair witch hunt, he may get to the point where reality intrudes a bit, and he realizes that the grossly unfair witch hunters are gonna get him. In that circumstance, I think he will claim that he has done what he came to do, and quit.

I remember an old joke, "When you are getting run out of town on a rail, get out in front and call it a parade." (incidentally, this is basically what he did with the manufacturing / jobs panels today: the CEOs were bailing so he claimed he was disbanding them).

[LastLiberal in PalmSprings]

37. He'll say Congress -- and especially Dems -- are "losers" who are only concerned with politics

and have blocked passing his (sick) agenda. He's a winner because he won the election, even the popular vote, and if it weren't for the fake news and Democrats he'd be even more successful as president than he is, which is one of the most successful presidents in the history of the nation. Then he'll leave and write his memoirs, 140 characters at a time.

[shanny]

42. That's about how I see it too. Nt

[trixie2]

55. Never heard that saying

Will be using it from here on out. Thanks!

[dixiegrrrrl]

34. I don't undersatnd what you mean.

Do you mean HIS power to pardon?
In the case of Russia/obstruction/collusion/ he cannot pardon anyone who is part of the conspiracy, because they are all co-conspirators.

In the case of him being pardoned, should he resign, if Pence assumes the Oval Office, and pulls a Gerry Ford, Trump becomes a civilian and instantly will be charged with all the RICO/money laundering, etc. by the State of New York DA.

and it is more than possible that Pence is also a co-conspirator, re: Flynn, Mueller is investigating that.

So actually, there is not place for Trump and Pence to run to.

Which would leave Paul Ryan, as Speaker of the House, 3rd in line for the office.
But he and McConnell are under investigation for accepting illegal Russian funds for their campaigns.

Way in the background, people on the side of angels have woven a most marvelous legal trap.
We may hear all their names when this winds down.

[former9thward]

41. None of your statements are true.

The President can pardon anyone. There is no evidence at all for the rest of your statements.

[shanny]

58. The President cannot pardon anyone

for state crimes and, depending on how far this gets, I think he cannot pardon anyone involved in an impeachment--if that part is true it could have some bearing. It is also unlikely that he could pardon himself (iow act as a judge in his own trial).

So many new things we may have the opportunity to learn.

[former9thward]

71. We are not talking about state crimes.

If there was any serious state investigation going on it would have leaked all over the place. Yes he can pardon himself. The Constitution does not limit him. He can't pardon himself in case of impeachment charges but no one is talking about that since there is none.

[shanny]

73. Constitutional scholars say no on the self-pardon.

And there are plenty of state crimes in the mix. Ask the AG of NY, whose "serious investigation" started before Mueller's.

[former9thward]

75. No, you ask him.

And provide the links to this "investigation".

[shanny]

76. Lol. I don't think I've ever met someone

who never heard of Google.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/05/eric-schneiderman-on-keeping-trump-in-check.html

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/jurisprudence/2017/07/no_matter_who_he_fires_or_pardons_trump_won_t_be_able_to_escape_state_attorneys.html

There's more, even without linking to the Palmer Report or Claude Taylor. Enjoy your day.

[former9thward]

77. Unlike some I always enjoy my day.

But thanks for the suggestion. Did you even read your links? There is nothing in either of them about any investigation of Trump. Both articles are speculation articles about what could be done. Not what is being done.

[shanny]

78. Read more carefully.

[LanternWaste]

68. Your response is (at best) inaccurate.

"The President can pardon anyone..."

Your response is (at best) inaccurate. The President may only pardon federal crimes. Not state crimes, not civil crimes. It's fine... not everyone knows about law.

The Constitution gives the president the power to grant pardons, "for offenses against the United States except in cases of impeachment." So he can't pardon himself from impeachment, can't pardon anyone from state charges. And most, but not all, constitutional law experts believe he cannot pardon himself on federal charges either.

(Source: The Presidency and the Political System by Michael Nelson)

[former9thward]

72. Your "experts" don't believe he can pardon himself.

Please don't drag actual constitutional law experts into that.

[shanny]

74. ???

[Cosmocat]

63. He can pardon whoever he wants

In the case of Russia/obstruction/collusion/ he cannot pardon anyone who is part of the conspiracy, because they are all co-conspirators.

He can pardon anyone he wants for whatever he wants ... Only question is whether he can pardon himself, and there are strong opinions either way on that, it would have to occur and be challenged to see what, ultimately, the SC would say.

And, there is NOTHING he has done in life that would suggest that he would resign and put his fate in someone else's hand relative to pardons.

[greeny2323]

3. I'm very skeptical

As long as he is president, he can interfere with the investigation and pardon people. Once he is out he is extremely vulnerable to ongoing criminal investigations. Leaving doesn't help him escape prosecution.

[bearsfootball516]

4. I would freaking love this

But to be totally honest, this sounds far too good to be true. Every time the country thinks "Well, there's no way Trump can get out of this one." he does exactly that.


And it's not like Tony has the authority to know any of this. He's just tweeting what he's hoping for. He doesn't have any insider knowledge of the situation.

[tblue37]

69. But he does know Trump better than most people do. nt

[edhopper]

5. Sadly

he will never resign. And the gutless GOP will never go after him.

[njhoneybadger]

6. I hope Tony is right, but I'm expecting a Gleiwitz incident

and all hell to break loose

[thucythucy]

27. That's my fear as well. nt

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

7. Tony Schwartz knows Trump about as well as anybody.

He was the ghostwriter for "The Art of the Deal," and spent 18 months shadowing him. If he thinks Trump might resign in a way that saves his ego, it could happen. I'm not holding my breath, but based on things Schwartz has written about Trump it seems to be a possibility. https://qz.com/986639/donald-trumps-psychology-art-of-the-deal-coauthor-tony-schwartz-says-the-us-president-is-protecting-his-sense-of-self-worth/

[mainstreetonce]

9. Pence

is canceling the rest of his trip and coming home. Also canceling everything on his schedule in DC.
Big meeting at camp
David.





Hope

[madaboutharry]

13. Pence will make a terrible president.

He sees no grey in the world; he sees the world in black and white. He only sees the way in which his personal Christian beliefs fit into policy. He is a weak man. He enables a madman. He is a terrible person.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

19. Yes. But we already have a spectacularly terrible president.

Pence would be terrible but I don't think he'd be worse than Trump - that might not be possible unless Satan rises up from Hell. Or maybe that's already happened.

[rpannier]

23. Satan knows how to govern

Plus he wasn't part of an administration that sank the economy -- Pence was Bush's Treasury Secretary as I recall
Satan is more Putinesque

[former9thward]

45. Pence was not anyone's Treasury Secetary.

He was a Congressman and then Governor.

[bdamomma]

29. just a saying

maybe we can get 2 for the price of one. or that other saying about _______________ two birds with one stone.

[Funtatlaguy]

50. Evangelical Dominionist

Hallelujah

[UTUSN]

11. R#4 & K for, if only.

[malaise]

12. I agree n/t

[AlexSFCA]

14. dream on

folks, instead of dreaming, the sooner we start facing the reality the better. IMO, this is just the very beginning (history is your reference).

[Docreed2003]

15. For him to resign and not face the music...

Could end up being a dangerous proposition. Yes, we would be rid of this incompetent, racist, idiot President, but he'd still be out there spreading his bile and hatred and misinformation, stirring shit. I hope that he is forced to pay the price for his actions, for once in his life, and spends some time in jail for it! I don't want him to become a martyr for the right, which would be exactly his role if he were to resign and face no prosecution. He would be able to cry about how "unfair" the media was to him and play the enternal victim. All that said, him being out of the office would still be amazing

[oasis]

62. True. A Trump WH exit before his transgressions are publicly exposed

will put him in a position to cause constant confusion and disruption. It's extremely important he be removed from office in a way that leaves no doubt in the minds of "reasonable"Americans that it was a fair and legal process.

[Warpy]

16. Yes, the pension, free health care and SS protection all appeal to him

It will be one of his final deals.

No one around him should walk, though. That's the big mistake we made with Nixon.

[bdamomma]

30. and George Bush and Cheney

they walked too.

[CrispyQ]

64. Looking forward - what the dems do best.

Iran-contra
Election 2000
Bush-Cheney
Election 2004
Election 2016 - Now the dems have no power or influence & can't do a damned thing.

[bdamomma]

33. or what else to sweeten the deal

he can go back to his gold tower in NY, play golf again all the time, can continually eat junk food, watch FOX news, listen to Alex Jones, and have more than 2 scoops of ice cream, and eat that beautiful chocolate cake, and visit Putin. How's that sound??

[Warpy]

35. yeah, and if he ever sticks his nose out into the real world

some idiot desperate for ratings will shove a microphone under it.

[ecstatic]

18. A fairly accurate astrologist on Youtube is saying he could either resign or be impeached

in November/December of this year. Last year she saw that Tim Kaine would not be sworn in (back in September 2016). And she's pretty spot on about Trump in August 2016. I really really hope she's right about this! At this point, I don't give a damn who replaces him. He just needs to go. NOW!

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

20. Astrology is superstition, bullshit and woo, but I hope she's right anyhow.

[ecstatic]

22. In her July reading of Trump, she specifically stated that 8/12/17 would

be a changing point for Trump. And also said that he's going to become 10x more out of control than we've seen in previous months. Check. Check.

[triron]

46. Are you a materialist?

[snooper2]

67. Well the grifters who preach mythastrology are...They need those bucks coming in!

[Gore1FL]

59. Ditto

I hope she is right, but the positions of the stars and her attempted interpretation thereof will have nothing to do with it.

[Thrill]

21. His ego won't let him resign

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

24. It will if the alternative is unavoidable humiliation.

[dflprincess]

39. He doesn't seem to understand that actions have consequences

(not unlike a toddler). So even if that is explained to him he may not be able to understand it.

[Miles Archer]

47. KEYWORD "unavoidable"

That's largely what I said in my own response to this conversation...he will have to be convinced (no one will "convince" him) that there is no emergency exit other than resignation. He'll stamp his feet and pound his chest and bray like a donkey until he sees no other option. And as long as he thinks he can pardon himself, he could face the music, convinced that he could "exonerate himself" at the end.

The Republican "leadership" will have to cough up a pretty sizable golden parachute in order for him to leave on his own.

[DeminPennswoods]

61. Trump lives in his own reality

We've repeatedly seen this even in the face of clear facts otherwise. He's so invested in his own reality, I'm convinced if he was hooked up to a polygraph, he'd "pass" with flying colors even while saying things that everyone else objectively knows are false.

I have no doubt he could believe he did everything he said he'd do and leave giving a "veni, vidi, vici" speech and believe every word of it.

[rpannier]

25. He'd fake his own death before resign

[StevieM]

26. He's going nowhere. The only way we are going to get rid of this guy is to vote him out. (eom)

[moondust]

28. Or start a war

to radically change the headlines assuming that will save his sorry ass.

[Shrike47]

31. I wish it were true. He might resign if Pence guaranteed pardons for all. But realistically...

I don't think his narcissism would allow it.

[Miles Archer]

32. Sounds great on paper, but...

...it would have to be very carefully constructed for Trump to go along with it.

Of course, I think we have to put a little more weight behind comments from Tony Schwartz, because he certainly knows the real Trump inside and out.

If Mueller has an airtight, incriminating package ready to send to Republican "leadership," I don't see Trump "testifying under oath," I don't see him enduring and impeachment trial. He will go right up to the point where that's about to happen, though.

There's been much talk on MSNBC about what would happen if Trump had to testify, His attorneys would not be allowed in the room. He could take all the "bathroom breaks" he wanted and meet with them outside the room, but he'd be 100% by himself while testifying.

Of course, he'd lie his ass off the whole time, so the burden of proof would be on disproving his lies.

The question becomes if the heat gets too hot, what would a resignation look like? For Trump's ego, it would have to not look like a resignation at all, and how the hell do you pull that off, other than a visit to "Dr. Nick" for a fake diagnosis of a fake life-threatening illness?

I dunno...like I said, the reason I'm even pondering this theory is that the tweets came from Schwartz. I question the "circle closing at blinding speed" when I hear Elaine Chao spout bullshit like "I stand by my men...BOTH of them."

I WANT it to happen...but how the hell does Trump get out while "saving face?" If he can't, he'd have to go the distance and be removed by a Republican party that won't do that until they have a come to Jesus moment about their own political futures.

[dlk]

36. Then We'll Have Mike Pence to Contend With

[DFW]

38. Trump may resign, but I don't think it's any time soon, and not for reasons listed above

His presidency, such as it is, has resulted in intense legal scrutiny of close family and friends. If that blows up, offenses that can be laid at his personal doorstep may come to light. If he resigns the presidency, he can't pardon his family and relatives, who for now can cover him if they take the 5th and say it's to protect themselves. The CAN rat him out if they accept a deal from the prosecution, but this would entail any prosecutor having rock-solid evidence--something team Trump is working tirelessly to prevent. But if they are pardoned by a sitting president, all they have to fear is being called as a witness, testifying "I don't recall," and at worst face a perjury charge, for which Trump can again pardon them.

Even if the polls say that the only ones left in the country that support Trump are KellyAnn, Bannon, and a third of the squirrels on the White House lawn, the Constitution says he's there until Jan. 20, 2021 or until he decides he doesn't want to play any more. We're a long way from that.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

40. I've been on record for some time for end of August. I may be right.

[Wounded Bear]

43. Problem is, it wouldn't work for him anyway...

Being Pres was his "get out of jail free" card. If he loses that, all of the investigations in the FBI and NYAJ continue.

Stuck between American DOJ and the Russian oligarchs? He might just as well jump out of Trump tower before the Russians throw him out.

[scheming daemons]

44. I think he's right, and I've been saying this same thing for a long time....

"I succeeded in making America Great Again, and it is time to pass the baton on to the very capable Mike Pence so I can go back to my previous life. We won, and we won bigly!"

Then he'll quit and start Trump TV and use it to take down Fox.

[TexasBushwhacker]

48. Resignation or not, Mueller must complete the investigation

It's not just about Trump. We need to know the extent of Russian tampering.

[Thinkingabout]

49. I absolutely agree, we need to know what was elected as president and NEVER do this again.

[MindMover]

51. Fucking stupid Conman...

v

[redstateblues]

52. Don't count on it

[demosincebirth]

53. I've seen and head this song and dance before...sigh.

[Xolodno]

54. Doubt if its resignation....but, it could be the exit strategy for Trump.

1. Decide who to pardon, when, how and the bullshit messaging that goes with it.

2. Decide who not to pardon and give them a ticket to Club Fed.

3. Decide when to initiate resignation and craft the message to go along with it. Probably be along the lines of, the witch-hunt, Congress not having the will to enact his legislation, press persecuting him for telling the truth, etc. Could get more accomplished on the outside than with in, etc.

His poll numbers are dropping, Congress considers him toxic, etc. He's effectively done.

[SweetieD]

56. The only way I could see Trump resigning is if he thought it would protect Ivanka from prison.

I can't see any other scenario where he resigns. Even if Mueller caught him red handed, you would have to drag Trump out of the white house.

[lindysalsagal]

66. Polygraph me: I believe he'd let her rot in jail if he had to to save his own ass.

How "sad" is that?

Not saying I'm right, just saying I'd believe it if it happened.

[Azathoth]

57. Nope

Charlottesville proved unequivocally what most observers feared: there are no lines Trump can cross, including support for nazis, that will cause him to lose his party's support.

Playing endless rounds of "Well, surely he's done it this time, his party will desert him and he will have to resign" is futile and self-deluding.

[Orsino]

70. If there's anything Trump is good at, it's declaring victory and flouncing off.

(No, he's not even good at that, but it's what he does.)