Trump is Just Six Senate Votes Away From Impeachment

[workinclasszero]

Trump is Just Six Senate Votes Away From Impeachment
BY ELAINE C. KAMARCK ON 8/17/17 AT 9:04 AM

At some point in 2019 (if not sooner) a Republican Senator may walk into the Oval Office and say to President Trump: “Mr. President, we don’t have the votes,” at which point the Trump presidency will end in a resignation or a conviction in the Senate.

This scenario actually occurred forty-three years ago this summer when Republican Senator Barry Goldwater walked into the Oval Office and told Republican President Richard Nixon that they didn’t have the votes in the Senate to save his presidency.

Following impeachment in the House, a trial takes place in the Senate. Conviction requires two-thirds of the Senate and by my count there are already twelve senators who have shown a willingness to take on the president when they believe he is in the wrong.

If you add that to the forty-eight Democrats in the Senate (who have shown no inclination to work with this President), Donald Trump could be six votes away from conviction in the Senate.

http://www.newsweek.com/trump-just-six-senate-votes-away-impeachment-651857?piano_t=1

[shenmue]

1. Go team!

[workinclasszero]

2. Yeah!

[MineralMan]

3. Yup. And those six would be Senators who would prefer Pence

as President. There are way more than six who feel that way, I'm certain.

[workinclasszero]

5. I don't doubt that

Especially after Trump's "Very fine people in the nazi mob/KKK" speech!

[IronLionZion]

13. Let's take our chances with Pence

I suspect we can beat him but there's only one way to find out.

[flibbitygiblets]

28. Unfortunately Pence can get their evil agenda accomplished. Trump has paralyzed it.

Hate to say it, but agenda-wise, we're safer with Trump. Except for the nuclear thing of course.

Trump continues to degrade the (R) brand, while Pence will give them 3 years to save it. Americans have the memories of goldfish.

[tblue37]

4. 48 + 12 is 60. I think conviction takes 67 senators (2/3 majority), whereas impeachment

itself takes only a simple majority in the House (218 representatives).

OTOH, if you mean 6 MORE votes, beyond the 12 Republican senators already opposed to Trump in some way, that still leaves the total at 66, which is one short.

The Senate's healthcare vote showed how crucial even one vote can be.

Besides, gently complaining about Trump isn't the same as voting to remove him from office, which is much more politically perilous for Republicans.

[L. Coyote]

6. More like six days away from resigning at this point. Which excuse is the only question now.

[progressoid]

7. Gotta get through the House first.

Which makes the 2018 election crucial.

[workinclasszero]

10. Shaping up to probably being the most important election

in my lifetime.

We win HUGE in 2018 or this country is finished IMO.

[exboyfil]

40. That election was 2016

It was just not enough people recognized it. That election will be remembered like the appointment of Hitler and the election of 1933 in history books.

It is that serious.

[workinclasszero]

52. Well yeah true

We have one more chance in 2018.

[Cosmocat]

51. Yep

Next November is the last stand.

[Heartstrings]

30. Which is exactly why I keep pushing midterms here on du

Rather than even discussing 2020....

[bdamomma]

34. 2018 is the year

we got to focus on that.

[Heartstrings]

48. Yes, indeed!

Keep stressing that fact and get your candidates names out there for exposure!

[N_E_1 for Tennis]

8. Impeachment may be the first necessary step...

But no deals for immunity if he resigns first. No pardons. No mercy.

I would love to see him prosecuted for everything. Money laundering, Russian involvement in the elections, I sure there's more. I would love to see him and his two sons and daughter in matching jumpsuits rotting in a Federal penitentiary. Webcams on them 24/7. They love the limelight give it to them.

Just my fantasy.

[NewJeffCT]

9. As long as Paul Ryan doesn't allow the movement to proceed

I don't think it matters if the Senate is unanimous

[workinclasszero]

12. 2018 if we take back the House

Ryan can go f*** himself.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

39. Before long he will, as tRump (Republican) gets toxic enough to 2018 election chances. . . nt

[lindysalsagal]

11. I like the sound of that. Trouble is, those 6 probably took dirty russian $$

And 45 will take them all down with him.

[CousinIT]

14. "Following impeachment in the House"

?

[caraher]

20. good point

this is not only counting chickens pre-hatching, they're starting with the wrong coop of chickens!

ETA: upon closer reading I see that the author is looking at a hypothetical post-2018 scenario in which the Democrats control the House

[DFW]

15. Only one thing will bring about both impeachment and conviction in the Senate

A Republican majority ditching a Republican president?

Only one thing could bring that about: If Mitch McConnell AND Paul Ryan are THOROUGHLY convinced that Trump seriously imperils their Congressional majorities, they will act. If not, Trump really COULD shoot someone down in broad daylight, and probably not get so much as a slap on the wrist, especially if his victim isn't white.

On the other hand, if McConnell sees Schumer as a sure shot for Senate Majority leader next year, and Ryan sees Pelosi back with the Speaker's gavel, they'll impeach Trump for the high crime/misdemeanor of littering, and convict him whether or not he did the deed.

[exboyfil]

37. Threaten his cash

with investigations. That might be the only thing that will work. Trump knows they won't publicly impeach him.

Maybe if he goes to Arlington and urinates on the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier - even then?

[DFW]

46. Nope. Not even then

Only if they think they have to give up the majorities in Congress. That scares them worse than the Bogey Man, Smaug the Dragon, or McDonald's going out of business.

[Cuthbert Allgood]

16. Newsweek doesn't know that conviction is a 2/3 vote?

That's embarrassing. They should probably hold a constitution refresher course.

[calimary]

23. Welcome to DU, Cuthbert Allgood.

Could also be that the proof-readers or editors aren't paying as close attention as they should.

I'm frankly amazed at the articles I read, wherein I spot "it's" when it should be "its" - as in the possessive form. Or "there" when it should be "they're." And bad spelling. And failure to capitalize properly. Thing is, though, you have to be kinda anal-compulsive to be able to nitpick like that.

I had a world-class nitpicker as a producer when I worked at NBC News. Drove me BATTY all the big and little corrections he made in every one of my scripts! (Who the hell did he think he was, anyway?) But once I finally got over myself, I realized that his nitpickery was actually making me a better writer. Certainly a lot more accurate and meticulous in my phrases and descriptions. You need somebody like that in charge of ALL copy-editing. And sometimes there's not enough money, and people have to double up and there are deadlines and you're rushed to get the damn thing written and turned in, and all kinds of reasons that sloppy stuff and mistakes get through. Particularly when you have younger and newer people on staff, who don't know their history or their Constitution or the law or whatever - at least not to the level of expertise that prevents such mistakes. I once worked with one beautiful, very nice, incredibly photogenic young co-anchor who was checking her script, in the newsroom, and reading some of it aloud to herself, about an hour or so before the nightly telecast. And she came to one story whose top-of-the-page slug was "SCOTUS". She mumbled "SCOTUS. Who is SCOTUS?" And we in the writers area gently had to inform her - "uh - 'SCOTUS' stands for 'Supreme. Court. Of. The. United. States.'" She was surprised. She'd had no idea before that moment. Had never heard of such a thing before.

[meow2u3]

17. I believe the math is not quite right

tRump would be 7, not 6, seats from removal from office by impeachment.

48 (Dems +Ind) + 12 (Senate Reps.) = 60, so to remove the Toxic Tangerine from office requires 7 more Senators. 6 would still allow him to survive impeachment. 67 Senators would make up a 2/3 vote because the number is rounded up to the nearest whole.

[geek tragedy]

18. Impeachment happens in the House, and being willing to criticize Tr*mp

is not the same thing as being willing to remove him from office.

[procon]

19. And 218 yay votes out of the 435 members in the House of Representatives

are necessary to confirm impeachment. That's the same craven House that has yet to utter a word of criticism against Trump. Please, let's stay grounded here, and remember what we're up against before we ever reach the day when we can postulate on the fantasy that we are, "Just Six Senate Votes Away From Impeachment".

[BumRushDaShow]

21. Newsweek needs to change the headline

House = "impeachment", Senate = "conviction" and thus "6 votes" should be linked to "impeachment conviction".

[caraher]

27. A rubbish headline on multiple levels!

[njhoneybadger]

22. Not going to be impeached

I'm expected a false flag, a war,and mueller gets fired by the end of the month.
anything could happen with this monster

[DownriverDem]

24. Worry about the House

How will there be enough votes to impeach trump in the repub controlled House? The Senate comes into play after the House impeaches trump.

[caraher]

26. Yes, but...

when I read the article more carefully I saw that she is painting a post-2018 scenario in which the Democrats take back the House.

Let's make it happen!

[caraher]

25. I feel sorry for the author

The headline Newsweek gave this piece is rubbish. Where it was originally published it was more measured and sensible: "President Trump needs friends in the Senate"

[ailsagirl]

29. Wow-- that's encouraging

[Heartstrings]

31. Midterms, midterms, midterms, midterms!!!!!

Cannot stress them enough!

[democratisphere]

32. Let's get to it.

[oberliner]

33. No Democratic senator has suggested impeachment

Or expressed any support for pursuing it.

[exboyfil]

35. 19 Republican Senate votes

It is not going to happen. I can't think of even four. The pickups in 2018 (if they do happen) will be from Senator's that would have been yes anyway.

He may get forced out through resignation if his businesses are threatened by the Republican leadership stating they plan to open the flood gates of investigation. That or a total physical or mental break down from age, stress, and a bad diet.

No way would the Republicans go along with a public impeachment.

[Heartstrings]

49. Best scenario would be

Flip Ryan's seat in Wisconsin!

RANDY BRYCE! Help get his name out there, please!

[bearsfootball516]

36. The truth is

Even if people don't like to hear it, is that the chances of Trump actually being impeached are slim to none. There's a reason that no US President has ever been removed via impeachment. Nixon stepped down.

Getting it through the House is hard enough, although manageable. The Senate? Basically impossible. Congressmen and senators have been steadfast in their support of him, and voting yes to impeach him would be political suicide if they represent an area where Trump is popular. I'm not saying that it shouldn't be tried, but the most likely ways Trump leaves office are:

1. His term ends

2. He's so miserable that he doesn't want to do it anymore and steps down. But even this, he's got so much pride, it's hard to imagine him doing that.

If I had to give it percentages (and it's just me, so my opinion might be different than yours), it's 85% chance he leaves because his term ends, 12% because he's miserable, and 3% because he gets impeached.

[exboyfil]

38. 3. Physical or mental health

I would put that at a higher probability than 2.

4. His cash gets threatened in a private meeting with the GOP leadership. There will be no public impeachment. This is kind of a subset of 2. Best method is to put pressure on in any way that we can. If nothing more it keeps the four corner delaying offense going. About a third of the clock has run out already (nothing is going to be done in 2020).

Term Ends - 60%
Forced Out by Health - 25%
Resigns - 15%

[Mike Nelson]

41. 67 votes are needed...

...in the Senate. At this point, it looks like Trump could perform an abortion while having sex with a boy and not be impeached. Maybe 2018 will be lucky.

[rtracey]

42. Impeachment

Impeachment needs to start in the house, and with the gerrymandering and Ryan in charge, hmmm not holding my breath.
Fuckump can resign... not sure why he hasn't done it all ready. He knows people hate him, he knows this job pays terrible.... He evern knows he's really not in charge.....

[barbtries]

43. but how do they get it to that point

the house is full of republicans?

[workinclasszero]

44. 2018 if we take back the House

If not put a fork in America, we done.

[bearsfootball516]

53. Even if they take the house back, there's no way they'd get it through the Senate

Best option is to win as many seats as possible in 2018, and then produce a strong candidate for the 2020 election.

[workinclasszero]

54. So from election 2018 to 2020

Twitler and his stinking party will be fighting impeachment.

Gives them way less time to f**k over America, amirite?

[barbtries]

55. right.

i was feeling quite urgently that he needs to go sooner than next year.

[ginnyinWI]

45. All the repubs will be watching the polls.

If the moral outrage isn't high enough within themselves, they have to respond to the Trump Taint. They either have class, or they fear for their jobs. Public polls will do it. I think he'd have to drop down below what--20% for them to be sure?

[workinclasszero]

47. Hitler 45 has only been on the job since January to get to this point

Lowest polling of a new president EVER!

Give the racist bastard a few more months to dig his and the republican party's grave!

He will get there!

[Drahthaardogs]

50. Impeachment starts in the House.

Trump is safe until we take it back.

[spanone]

56. K&R...

[NYC Liberal]

57. Actually, he is 43 votes away: 19 in the Senate and 24 in the House.

[grantcart]

58. Well sure if you are going to use that math thingy and count and add.

I prefer to imagine a number and wish really hard

[Blue Owl]

59. 6... 5... 4... 3... 2...

C'mon #1...