DDHQ / Opinion Savvy Poll of #ALSen Runoff: Moore 50.3% Strange 32.2%

[brooklynite]

Decision Desk:

Decision Desk HQ sponsored an Opinion Savvy poll of likely voters in Alabama for the upcoming Senate special election’s Republican primary runoff. Voters were contacted by landline (IVR) and cell phone (push notification and web-based survey), and the sample was weighted for age, race, gender and region. A total of 494 respondents participated, and the margin of error is +/- 4.4%.

Former Alabama Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore is enjoying an eighteen point lead over incumbent Senator Luther Strange, 50.3% to 32.2%. Earlier this week, JMC Analytics surveyed the contest and found a nearly identical lead for Moore, 51% over Strange’s 32%. Strange wins non-evangelicals (48.2% to 26%), older Millennials and younger Gen Xers (32.6% to 29.9%), somewhat liberal (32.1% to 30.5%) and very liberal voters (20.8% to 8.2%), and voters in the Mobile area (46.8% to 42.3%).

Moore wins everyone else. He dominates every other age bracket, leads Strange among evangelicals by almost thirty points (57.5% to 27.9%) and leads among very conservative voters by a similar margin (61.6% to 29.2%). Regionally, he is the solid favorite in Huntsville (54.2% to 29.3%), Montgomery (57.4% to 21.7%), and leads in Strange’s home metro region of Birmingham by double digits (46.3% to 35%).

Among likely Republican voters, President Donald Trump’s approval rating stands at 83.4%, with just 14% disapproving. The President endorsed the Senator just before the first primary round, but Strange only leads among voters who disapprove. Moore beats Strange by twenty-five points (56.4% to 31.3%) among the voters who strongly approve, and almost eleven points (49.2% to 38.4%) among the voters who somewhat approve.

[Not Ruth]

1. Trump 83.4%? Is this a real poll?

[bearsfootball516]

2. It's among Republican voters, and it's in Alabama, so.

[karynnj]

4. It's among Alabama Republicans

Nationwide, Obama had similar or slightly lower numbers among Democrats. Alabama is likely more "Trump's base" than say - Northeastern Republicans - so these numbers are not surprising at all.

In fact, we will know that Trump is really in trouble when nationwide Republican numbers sink. Each Republican has to either follow his conciense or assess whether he/she faces more danger of a Trump fueled primary challange or losing in the generall election by being weighed down by an unpopular President. In BOTH cases, their own popularity among Republicans and the general population among their district (or state) also plays a huge role. (Remember that Manchin won WV when Obama's WV numbers were terrible.)

[BannonsLiver]

3. Moore will instantly become the craziest, most racist senator in the chamber

A religious fanatic, he'll make Tom Cotton and Ted Cruz look like moderates.