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Does this put Arizona in play? (Original Post) Hamlette Aug 2017 OP
The people who turn out to vote are old white retirees who fear non-whites. AJT Aug 2017 #1
I doubt it. LuvLoogie Aug 2017 #2
I believe it will, bigly. haveahart Aug 2017 #3
Dont kid yourself. fallout87 Aug 2017 #7
It's a matter of time Major Nikon Aug 2017 #4
Well, Arpaio lost bigly here last year, marybourg Aug 2017 #5
Does this put Arizona in play? LenaBaby61 Aug 2017 #6
1) Trump only won AZ by 3.5% 2) No Gerrymandering in AZ. Congressional Districts by independent grantcart Aug 2017 #9
Demographic and ideological shifts put a state in play Awsi Dooger Aug 2017 #8
 

fallout87

(819 posts)
7. Dont kid yourself.
Sat Aug 26, 2017, 01:39 AM
Aug 2017

Believe me, I wish it were true... but this plays to his base. They will love him for this in Arizona. If anything, Flake is in trouble and will get a challenger in the primary.

Major Nikon

(36,814 posts)
4. It's a matter of time
Fri Aug 25, 2017, 11:41 PM
Aug 2017

If not the next election then soon after. Arizona will eventually go the way of New Mexico as will Texas. The demographics are only going one direction.

marybourg

(12,540 posts)
5. Well, Arpaio lost bigly here last year,
Sat Aug 26, 2017, 12:08 AM
Aug 2017

for the first time in 24 years, means a lot of people turned against him. They're not going to be happy about this.

The situations surrounding McCain and Flake are in flux also. So, as usual, the answer probably is: who knows?

LenaBaby61

(6,965 posts)
6. Does this put Arizona in play?
Sat Aug 26, 2017, 01:24 AM
Aug 2017
NOPE.

As long as you have GOP voter-suppression IE: Voter purging of Dems off voting rolls, gerrymandering voter-crosschecking etc., and the ruskies being ALLOWED to interfere into our elections (tRumputin won't do ANYTHING to stop them, and we know WHY), how are Dems votes going to count for anything, no matter HOW many of us come out to vote in 2018? IF tons of Dems come out to vote, how do we know if thuglicans or if the ruskies won't have done "something" that can make all of those Dem votes "go missing" come election night? Look at what "happened" in three key states tRumputin HAD to win in order to capture the EC:

Crosscheck Removed 450K Voters in MI, 270 K in AZ and 590 K in NC.

Crosscheck in action:

Trump victory margin in Michigan: 13,107
Michigan Crosscheck purge list: 449,922

Trump victory margin in Arizona: 85,257
Arizona Crosscheck purge list: 270,824

Trump victory margin in North Carolina: 177,008
North Carolina Crosscheck purge list: 589,393

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/14/1599330/-Crosscheck-Removed-450K-Voters-in-MI-270-K-in-AZ-and-590-K-in-NC

Look at what happened in Wisconsin with Dem votes during the 2016 GE:

Wisconsin’s Voter-ID Law Suppressed 200,000 Votes in 2016 (Trump Won by 22,748)

A new study shows how voter-ID laws decreased turnout among African-American and Democratic voters.
By Ari Berman MAY 9, 2017

Prior to the 2016 election, Eddie Lee Holloway Jr., a 58-year-old African-American man, moved from Illinois to Wisconsin, which implemented a strict voter-ID law for the first time in 2016. He brought his expired Illinois photo ID, birth certificate, and Social Security card to get a photo ID for voting in Wisconsin, but the DMV in Milwaukee rejected his application because the name on his birth certificate read “Eddie Junior Holloway,” the result of a clerical error when it was issued. Holloway ended up making seven trips to different public agencies in two states and spent over $200 in an attempt to correct his birth certificate, but he was never able to obtain a voter ID in Wisconsin. Before the election, his lawyer for the ACLU told me Holloway was so disgusted he left Wisconsin for Illinois.

https://www.thenation.com/article/wisconsins-voter-id-law-suppressed-200000-votes-trump-won-by-23000/


I didn't even mention the "years worth of shenanigans" that have gone on in Florida or Ohio with Dem votes/Dem voting apparatus since 2000 in (FL) and 2004 (Ohio).

thuglicans control almost EVERY facet of the voting apparatus across this country from collecting the votes to tallying them. You trust thuglicans in general to count Dem votes fairly after reading those articles I posted? Do you trust a purposely understaffed and tRumputin-run Dept. of Homeland Security to keep the ruskies from meddling in our 2018 elections? Do you see ANYTHING coming out of this tRumputin White House that signals to YOU that tRumputin's updating, improving or fixing voting machines across this country (Especially in Dem areas) from being hacked or tampered with? Do you think thuglicans are going to stop their voter-suppression/gerrymandering efforts on their own?



grantcart

(53,061 posts)
9. 1) Trump only won AZ by 3.5% 2) No Gerrymandering in AZ. Congressional Districts by independent
Sat Aug 26, 2017, 04:07 AM
Aug 2017

Commission. Currently the "Red State" of AZ has 5 Republicans and 4 Democrats
 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
8. Demographic and ideological shifts put a state in play
Sat Aug 26, 2017, 03:37 AM
Aug 2017

Isolated decisions like this one are mostly trivial. That's why I pay no attention to day to day stuff but keep close tabs on the partisan breakdown of every state.

People like Rachel Maddow are clueless during election years because they somehow view each state like water in a tank...shifting freely from one side to the other. Rachel routinely puts great emphasis and glee in poll numbers that make no sense at all from a foundational perspective. Instead of water in a tank the states are more like rigid platforms of conservative numbers and liberal numbers. Each platform varies from state to state, and likewise the relationship to the other platform.

Arizona became interesting in 2016 for the first time because our platform jumped to 27% self-identified liberals while the conservative platform was 40%. That is actually very manageable especially compared to more touted pickup opportunities like North Carolina and Georgia which reported far beyond that 13% gap.

It never has to reach parity, BTW. There are a handful of states at parity or with small liberal advantage. At parity we dominate because moderates tend to lean Democratic even if they are reluctant to self-identify as liberal. I really wish each state would ask the moderates how they would categorize themselves on an ideological scale of 0-100 because the only occasional problem I have with my focus is that moderates do vary from state to state but it isn't always obvious.

The West is more favorable than the South. I guess that's the way I would summarize. I have no idea why we don't use big picture logic like that to understand that Arizona has to be a greater pickup opportunity than Georgia or North Carolina. I'll always insist that Obama's narrow victory in North Carolina in 2008 was one of the worst things to happen to the Democratic Party in recent history, and specifically towards Hillary's campaign in 2016. Such wasted time and resources. North Carolina reported 43% conservatives in the exit poll. Nationally it was 35%, compared to 26% liberals.

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