I was talking to a couple of local farmers today about this drought. Old timers

[NNN0LHI]

They both said the same thing.

They said drive down the highway and you will notice one field of corn looks fine. But the next field has turned to crap. I had already noticed that and asked them why that was.

Then they explained why that is. They said anyone who prepped their field properly with plenty of nitrogen and fertilized correctly are having no problem because the plants were strong enough to develop a good enough root system to grow deep enough to find the water, and keep itself healthy.

But the farmers who tried to do the field prep on the cheap are finished. They said a lot of farmers had gotten away with doing it on the cheap in the past. But not this year. They said some of these farmers who tried to do it the cheap way may lose everything they own over that decision.

That is what they both said and agreed on.

Conclusion: Just goes to show you sometimes cheap isn't better. Might have gotten away with it in the past but one of these days, like now, you are going to pay a price for that. Might be a heavy price? Might be a heavy enough price to cause you to lose your farm over? Might be a price you aren't prepared to pay? Sometimes you win. Other times you lose everything over that decision.

Something to think about.

Don

[Ian David]

1. Maybe they didn't have the money to do it the right way in the first place? n/t

[randome]

2. Then maybe they should have gone into some other profession.

I know that's terribly snarky of me, not being a farmer, but it's a point to consider.

[Whisp]

7. that would mean that anyone who has some bad luck

and hardship, no matter what they do,


should have gone into some other profession.



sometimes, a Lot of times, shit just happens, and we should help at least by not snarking from the safety of our bleachers. Just sayin.

[zbdent]

51. sounds like a Ron Paul line of thinking to me ...

[Zalatix]

12. That would mean a reduction in the food supply because of fewer farmers.

The solution is for the government to step in with subsidies, and a requirement that it be spent on implementing PROPER fertilization techniques.

Yes that sounds unattractive, mainly to right wingers, but the alternative is big hits to America's overall food supply during hard times. Trust me, you don't want that, you want that even less than you want more subsidies.

[Scootaloo]

35. Reduction of food supply for feed lots, maybe...

Our corn industry is one of the hugest wastes of perfectly good food that mankind has devised.

[MrDiaz]

77. or

no body steps in and they actually learn to do it the proper way, and they will be forced to learn the proper way because it is the only way to succeed in this particular field.

[southernyankeebelle]

28. Obivously you aren't a farmer. Farming is a problem even in good times. We need to support our

farmers. They are truly the backbone of this country. Especially in the bread basket areas of the country. Without them we all would starve. I always pray for the farmers. I am not a farmer but I do know some and they work very very hard.

[Comrade_McKenzie]

55. Because the subsidy money goes to the millionaire farmers. nt

[HooptieWagon]

3. The problem is crop insurance.

Most farmers purchase it now. If they've gotten away with sloppy and cheap farming practices in the past, theres no incentive to improve because insurance will cover the loss.
Insurance should be to cover unforseen/unpreventable occurrences, acts of god if you will. Not as a crutch to mitigate poor business practices.

[HappyMe]

5. I wonder if after so many claims,

the premiums go up and they come out to have a look at their methods?

[Zalatix]

13. Excellent idea!

[HappyMe]

16. What?

[Zalatix]

18. If the insurance companies come out to inspect and enforce compliance

that could be a good thing, as long as it results in a net reduction of an insured farmer's vulnerability to adverse conditions, like droughts.

[NNN0LHI]

34. Then they would be complaining about too much regulation by "Big Gubment"

They are already bent out of shape about the regulations designed to keep the field dust down to a minimum.

I have heard people around here blaming those regulations on President Obama when they are talking to someone who they think is as stupid as they are.

Then I remind them that these regulations have been around since the Dust Bowl and they get real quiet.

Don

[drmeow]

65. Is the insurance a government run

or government mandated insurance? If not then you can also point out that the insurance inspections are just the free market at work!

[NNN0LHI]

66. Look at my post #6 right below this one

[NNN0LHI]

6. They mentioned that too

They said if you needed a bank loan to finance the planting the bank demanded you have insurance because the bank won't loan money on something that may not make it to the grain elevators without crop insurance.

But they said a lot of the farmers around here who don't finance with a bank therefore don't purchase Federal Crop Insurance. He said it was mostly the farmers without Federal Crop Insurance who were the ones with the best prepped fields.

Thanks for bringing that up. I had actually meant to include that in my OP and had forgotten and left it out.

Don

[HappyMe]

10. Good info.

[Ian David]

11. If they are like any other insurance company, they might use this to deny the claim.

But I don't know if crop insurance works that way.

[HooptieWagon]

17. Its a Federal program.

And yes, we would hope they would deny the claim where sloppy farming methods could be proven... but that would piss off the banks who loaned the farmers money for planting, and theres zero chance of Obama Administration doing anything that might annoy the banks.

[LuckyLib]

19. Crop insurance never pays the full value of a good crop. Sometimes 40%,

sometimes higher.

[HooptieWagon]

22. I read an article the other day citing a higher figure.

It said farmers were pretty much guarranteed a profit even with a total crop loss. The article was inre to the current corn crop, perhaps other crops are different.

[NNN0LHI]

29. They said 80% coverage was about the average around here

[HooptieWagon]

33. Thats the figure I read.

It was about corn crops, though. I dont know if it is the same for other crops.

[Ikonoklast]

49. Crop insurance barely covers your input costs.

All that work, and you get $0 in profit.

I don't know about you, but I couldn't run my business on just staying even.

No Profit = Borrow Money To Eat.

[HooptieWagon]

52. Other sources say as much as 80% of the market value.

Which still left a profit, even if the land was leased.

[Ikonoklast]

54. Average projected national yield, and projected price @80% gives you $86 over input costs

per acre on an insurance claim, as opposed to over $308 per acre if the crop is sold at market.

That puts small operators without enough money for the following years outlays for input costs, and instead of borrowing to cover some of that, they'll need to borrow all of it.

Two years in a row like that, and that farm is for sale.

[Yo_Mama]

76. It pays the bank loan. and that's about all it does

It doesn't pay the land taxes, it doesn't fund capital investment, and it doesn't give the farmer anything to fund the next year's investment. Eating, etc, hah.

And when you go to get the next crop loan, you are going to be very closely scrutinized. The bank doesn't want to give you more money than they can recover. One of the reasons some farmers haven't been able to put more into prep is that they've been short of money!

Nice to see participation by someone who knows what's flying.

[Lionessa]

4. Actually if they were really doing it right, they'd not need chemicals you suggest.

Because they'd rotate crops to keep the soil healthy instead of always planting the same stuff. One might also say they'd be doing better if they planted drought resistant GMO corn, but I don't see that as a good thing either.

[HappyMe]

8. Nitrogen, potassium and

other things in fertilizer are also available in organic form. Most farmers rotate crops.

[sadbear]

9. Nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium

All crops need those elements in some way or another. And they can be organic, too.

[madokie]

14. Every time I've let money make a decision for me its turned out to be a bad decision

I'm 64 years old and that has been the case since I can remember.

[NNN0LHI]

15. I had never even given much thought about that before

But after giving it some thought I have concluded you are correct.

I am actually a little embarrassed for not giving more thought to that.

Thank you for making me think. Sometimes I need a little kick in the head like that.

Don

[madokie]

45. I hope I wasn't being out of line with that comment

You do just fine without people like me clouding up the issue.

[aquart]

20. Had no idea. Thanks for posting this.

This is the kind of knowledge we're all going to need.

[SnowCritter]

21. Seems that there's an analogy in there

"Doing it on-the-cheap can ultimately cost more" is logic that could apply just about everything.

[HooptieWagon]

23. +1000

Sometimes you can get away with cheap... most of the time not. Do it right - do it once.

[vlyons]

24. So what exactly is the correct way to prep the field?

Did they plow under the silage, spread manure or let cows graze over winter to drop manure, plant clover in the fall? What did they do? I own hay fields and would like to know.

[NNN0LHI]

26. They didn't explain the entire process to me

They know most of the detail would have went over this non-farmers head.

They just gave me the basics.

Go cheap and you might be alright. But on the other hand going cheap could be disastrous.

That is all I really got out of the discussion with these two old farmers.

Don

[riderinthestorm]

25. Nobody's crops are doing okay, not even those who've done it the old ways without chemicals

Your OP sounds like a good story but honestly, as a small Northern Ilinois organic producer with fields in the lowest part of my farm, next to a creek that in other years has flooded its so low, even our stuff is baking and burning and drying up. We've never sprayed, never used chemicals, we use horse manure and hand labor.

This is a generational drought (or its the new normal, take your pick). Nobody's doing well. Crop yields are going to be very, very bad. The corn and soybean plants need rain at strategic moments for the kernels and soy to form properly. That's not happening. Even if the corn "looks" fine, its still not actually producing viable ears.

[sammytko]

40. Could still be third largest harvest on record according to this story

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-07-11/drought-cuts-projected-corn-harvest-by-12-percent

Not all states are suffering.

[riderinthestorm]

44. A huge amount of acreage was planted in corn this year so the sheer scale ensures a return

of some magnitude. I recognize that there are better seed technologies that have also been implemented but the biggest critical component in predicting the harvest is the agricultural futures markets and corn futures are moving upwards fast.

Watch the market and it paints a more realistic picture in my mind.

Certainly not ALL states are suffering but so many farmers are experiencing pain its kinda like being a "little big pregnant" - the drought is yso widespread over the continental US there's not a whole lot of good news areas.

[sammytko]

47. Last July temps were over 100 degrees here every single day, today it's 73!

We were in a severe drought then, today it's raining again and we had two inches of rain last week. Haven't even had to water the grass. This is s. Texas.

It's the cycle of life.

[riderinthestorm]

48. The southern states have often seen boom/bust crop times. Not so much in Illinois

Indiana, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Kentucky... that vast "bread basket" mid-range is getting hammered in unprecedented ways.

[SheilaT]

27. The larger point about not doing things on the cheap

is the crucial one here.

You get what you pay for is generally correct.

You see this everywhere, companies or the government deciding to save money and hire fewer people or do less maintenance or whatever. Not a good idea in the long run.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

30. Who needs to listen to the Department of Agriculture when you've got Zeke.

Hell, Zeke even chews tobacco and spits on target.

He knows what he's talkin' 'bought.

[Pizz]

31. Having a govt. that provides a safety net for all isn't cheap either.

[LittleGirl]

32. I think of the bridge that fell in MN

and how, not fixing that bridge, killed people. One second they were here and the next, they were sent crashing to the earth because someone got cheap, got lazy, thought more of the bottom line and not the living breathing people that depended on that bridge.

I wonder if those farmers used GMO seeds that withstand drought better or worse. I'd love to see that report.

[harun]

36. Sorry but even if they are old timers they are delusional as to the cause.

And the factors involved.

They just don't won't to attribute it to high CO2 PPM and the results of that.

[NNN0LHI]

37. What would be causing one field to survive and the ones on either side of that one not survive?

Can high CO2 PPM be a localized phenomenon which can effect one field but not the two fields on either side of it?

Is that possible?

Don

[harun]

58. Hundreds of factors

What variety/cultivar did they plant? Is it sweet corn or field corn? What day did they plant it? (two weeks later could have made a huge difference this year). Are they using irrigation? What crop did they plant previously to the corn? Is this a newly plowed field or one that has been in use before? How many years has each field been in use? What was used to plow the field? How deep was the plowing, tilling for each field? Is one field at a lower elevation, getting more runoff to it? Was one field treated with a root stimulating fertilizer like Mycorrhiza and one not? Did the farmer let it go to hell on purpose to later plow the organic matter in to improve the soil?

Etc.

[4th law of robotics]

67. I'm pretty sure professional farmers

would be aware of all those various factors you listed.

The common stereotype might be some inbred hick who dropped out of middle school but in reality they know their business pretty well in general.

A 60 year old corn farmer isn't going to "forget" that there's a difference between in corn cultivars. Or that different irrigation systems work differently.

[harun]

71. Never said they forgot

Just that they are tailoring the reason to fit their world view. A world view where if a crop fails it must be because of a lazy farmer.

Just because some people load up the soil before hand with Nitrogen doesn't make them drought proof.

[4th law of robotics]

78. No farm is drought-proof

however different land management practices can alter how drought-resistant the land is.

[bvar22]

38. There could be another explanation.

There is very little Commercial Agri-Business in our rural area,
but almost everyone has a big Veggie Garden.
If you drive down the rural highways and back roads here,
you will see the same thing...
some gardens healthy and productive,
and some dried up and dead.

The explanation here is that some people have access to water for irrigation,
either from natural springs and ponds, or deep (expensive) high-flow wells with which to irrigate their crops.
Those who have marginal wells on their property can't irrigate,
and have to watch their hard work dry up and die while their neighbor down the road
enjoys a good harvest.

We are lucky.
We irrigate from a natural spring/well, have plenty of water,
and are having a good year.




It is heartbreaking to drive around and see the drought damage our neighbors are suffering.
I thought about posting a photo essay on this topic,
but don't have the heart to photograph the ugliness of the drought, now "Severe" in our area.
Some of these people depend on their Summer Gardens to feed the family.

I don't know about your area, but access to good water for irrigation could be part of the problem.

Access to abundant WATER is the key.
We never intended for our spring to be our sole water source, only a supplemental.
If the water table drops, and we lose our spring, then we, along with the rest of the country,
are in a lot of trouble.
It won't make any difference how much nitrogen we have in the soil if it dries up and blows away.

We are thankful every day for the cold, clear water that comes up from the ground in the back yard.

[NNN0LHI]

39. I have never seen any irrigation being done around here by anyone in over 20 years

Only place I ever see irrigation being done is at a small farm that grow spices and herbs in the next town over.

Never seen and corn or soy bean fields being irrigated.

Don

[Motown_Johnny]

41. Where are you?

In my Very limited experience it always seemed that center pivot irrigation rigs were common.

I don't doubt that properly prepping the fields can make a difference, in the short term, but if the drought is severe enough then no amount of fertilizer is going to help.

[NNN0LHI]

42. About 60 miles south of Chicago and about 10 miles west of the Indiana border

Never seen any equipment like that around these parts.

Don

[Motown_Johnny]

43. Well, that shows what I know.

Not much.

[KharmaTrain]

53. I Probably Drove Right Past You...

Went to visit my kids and went down the Dixie Highway and saw what you were refering to. Some corn in Iriquois and Vermillion Co. were 6 feet tall or taller...almost ready to tassle and others were far shorter. I suspected that the various types of hybrids being used was the reason...

[Drahthaardogs]

46. Works for beef cows too.

In the mountains of Colorado. My family always kept our cows young, we did not keep the gummers (cows so old their teeth were worn to gums). Some guys did, or bought the gummers from ranchers like us on the cheap. Sure, they still threw a calf, but guess what happened the years we caught a big late spring snow storm.

Like everything, if you are going to be greedy and gamble, you win some and you lose some.

[4th law of robotics]

69. I saw an interesting seminar on beef production in Texas

I won't bore you with the details but essentially it pointed out that if producers would keep their herds at about 70% carrying capacity then droughts wouldn't hurt them; rangeland would suffer in droughts but not be so badly hurt that it couldn't recover in the good years (same with ground water sources).

Instead they stock at 100% capacity for good years and have to sell off all their animals at a loss during the dry years (in Texas about a 1/3 of the time), usually after stripping the land bare hoping the rains will come.

If they'd keep it at a lower stocking level they could get by with lower inputs and maybe not make as much during the wet years but also not lose everything in the dry years and ultimately make a greater profit by producing less (counter-intuitive to some).

It's slowly starting to catch on. But I do sympathize with the folks who feel they have to get every penny out of the land every year just to get by. It seems that way at first glance but that is harmful in the long run.

[moondust]

50. Bailouts?

Drought disaster declaration in many states probably means some relief but I wouldn't know how much.

[FedUpWithIt All]

56. Crops that are supplied easy and shallow water will develope a shallower root

The plants that are not supplied with easy and plentiful surface water will send down deeper and stronger roots before the surface growth increases and produces.


I wouldn't be surprised if this is also playing a part.

[CoffeeCat]

57. I really doubt what these farmers are saying...

I live in Iowa and I see the cornfields that surround the area in which I live. There are so many cornfields in central Iowa, and no matter which direction I drive--I'd hit a cornfield within five minutes of my house.

I've watched these fields deteriorate throughout the summer. It's the worst that I've ever seen it. These fields are slowly turning from emerald green, to light green to light brown and worse.

I could see where farming short cuts may produce worse results in normal years or where you have mild weather challenges, but with extreme and roasting temperatures like this and no rain--I don't think prep work is a factor any longer. These crops are not getting any moisture, and although corn planted without "short cuts" may have longer roots, corn roots can only grow so deep. There is no water. AT ALL. The soil is bone dry very deep into the ground. We had a very dry winter, practically no rain in the spring and this summer is sweltering with rainfall being a rarity.

No way could any farmer "prepare" for this kind of drought. We've had temperatures of more than 100 degrees for most of July. It was 104 today. The extended forecast calls for 100 degree temps well into next week--and no rain in the forecast.

From what I've seen--every field around here is in jeopardy. A few weeks ago, Iowa wasn't even mentioned as one of the states hit hard by drought--with crops doing poorly. Indiana and Illinois were always mentioned. Well, you can add us to the list. If the forecast holds and the temps remain around 100, with no rain, then the corn here will be completely trashed.

Last week, one farmer said that his insurance man told him to "burn his fields" if this heat and drought held up for one more week. That was several days ago. I imagine in the next week or so, we will hear a lot of news about corn and other food supplies being seriously affected.

I'd expect prices to rise because of this. Anyone who wants to avoid price spikes might want to stockpile before these higher food prices hit.

[NNN0LHI]

59. Here is what a well prepped field looks like during a drought

I don't have to drive anywhere to see this one. This is a field bordering my property. I just look out the back door. I watched the farmer who owns this field spend 2 months getting everything right before he planted this year. Hardest working man I have ever seen in my life.

How does it look?

Don



Here is what it looked like when he planted it back in April:

[riderinthestorm]

60. The stalk and tassle may "look" fine but the corn isn't so great. Farm reports say 30% of the yield

will be classified as "good". That means fully 70% or more will be either poor or non-existent.

Just because the stalk and tassle look okay doesn't mean the corn in the husk is fine.

[NNN0LHI]

61. I have walked out and looked at and opened a couple of ears and they looked pretty normal to me

They looked about like every other year.

I would say this particular farmer is looking forward to a pretty decent yield based on my limited knowledge of this. Been watching this field being planted and harvested for over 20 years.

Don

[riderinthestorm]

62. He's very lucky then. Ours is crap, even with irrigation, the high heat has ruined the ears

We've never had such a terrible corn yield as we're getting this year. We've had tremendous success with our seeds and methods for the past 10 years (we're all organic with mostly heirloom varieties) but we're getting hammered (40 miles west of Chicago).

Edited to add that I don't think farming success is as simplistic as your OP. It feels like a slap when you imply that anyone who isn't getting a bumper crop is simply a lazy farmer or has taken short cuts. There are a lot of different factors involved - I can assure you that there are many hard working farmers whose crops are failing who have managed their fields for many years. I would never be able to point to a neighbor's farm and declare them lazy bums because their yield is bad. There but for the grace of god go I... (and I guess since this is clearly my year for a shitty yield, I'm even more particularly sensitive to the charge).

[Yo_Mama]

73. Seconding your comments

Conditions are different, even though a large portion of the corn belt has drought conditions. In some places, proper prep is holding the corn. In some places, nothing anyone could have done would have saved the crop. Depends on degree days, moisture in soil before the drought started, and how much rainfall locally.

A little common sense should be used. The OP is talking about local conditions, and too many on the thread are trying to extend that nationally.

[CoffeeCat]

63. Are you suggesting that this is the fault of the farmers?

Maybe I'm misunderstanding, but are you suggesting that the farmers who have
burnt up corn and damaged fields--in the middle of a severe drought and extended
100+ degree temperatures--would have flourishing green fields if only they had
worked harder before planting?

Because that's what it sounds like you are saying.

I believe you that the field you have right out your back door is doing fine. That's
great.

What I'm having trouble with is your implication that a damaged crop is the fault of the
farmer.

Trust me, I live in central Iowa--the epicenter of big, industrialized, big-ag farms. These
guys are professionals, and this is big business. The machinery pictured in your post is
all over our fields during planting--and traveling on the highways as well, during the spring!

The drought in this area is the worst in 50 years, according to our local news. That certainly
isn't the fault of the farmer.

I hope "blame the bad farmer" isn't some kind of new meme that people are going to start
spreading, in an attempt to bastardize and demonize those who need help. We saw this
during Katrina and in other natural disasters where FEMA was called in. The people who
were victimized were positioned as freeloaders and idiots. I truly hope that this
is NOT what is happening here.

[NNN0LHI]

64. I am telling you what two farmers who have been farming for decades told me

If there is any confusion read my OP again.

Don

[XemaSab]

68. I didn't see any blame in the OP

Farming is an art as much as a science, and it's years like this that separate the Kincades from the DaVincis.

[riderinthestorm]

79. Not true at all. Sorry but in some places there's nothing anyone could have done.

And I too read that the OP is assigning blame. You seem to be as well.

[Yo_Mama]

70. depends on the location

In some places the drought is already bad enough that nothing would prevent losses.

But basically what was said to you is true - it's just not absolutely true. Locally true, but not universally true. In some places all the corn is burnt up.

Also, when you put a lot of money into the prep, it helps if you can irrigate. Some farmers can, some can't. If you can irrigate if you have to in order to protect your investment, you will. And it keeps the crops alive, if not thriving.

[Atman]

72. A largely unnoticed thread...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002974172

[sammytko]

75. We discussed this on another forum and I tried to talk people down from raiding stores for corn and

Meat products. Don't you think that the need for corn is going to go down since the ethanol subsidy expired this year.

Here is a op-Ed from the nytimes about this. Says 40% of corn grown goes to ethanol production.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/25/opinion/25Rattner.html

And then, people are eating less meat or switching to grass fed beef, so there's another way corn consumption will decrease.

[Atman]

74. Corn Austerity didn't work?

Who'd have figured?