About those polls (updated)

[ProSense]

Perspective:

The only poll that shows Romney with a one-point lead is the NYT poll, and that's down two points from the last NYT poll (http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002686811).

Fox has Obama ahead by four points.

The latest poll periods ended Monday, barely enough time for people, especially those who were away the weekend, to digest all the information coming out about Romney, Bain and his taxes.

Yesterday, Romney claimed that releasing his tax returns would be politically damaging (http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002968057). Also, a lot more information has surfaced since the polls were taken. It will only get worse.

Still, here are poll summaries:

Obama vs. Romney
http://pollingreport.com/wh12gen.htm

Obama's job approval
http://pollingreport.com/obama_job.htm

Obama's Favorability
http://pollingreport.com/obama_fav.htm

The numbers are close, always have been.

As with the CBS/NYT poll, the media seems to frame any Romney lead (one point) as something dire, leaving out details like it's down from the previous month.

When Obama gains, it's reported as a statistical tie.

Updated to add this (a good read) :

Mark Blumenthal

Likely Voter Polls: Mitt Romney's Hidden Edge?

<...>

Consider the criticism leveled at the Pew Research Center poll released last week that showed President Barack Obama leading presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney by a seven-point margin (50 to 43 percent) among 2,373 registered voters.

<...>

The biggest flaw in that argument is that it focuses only on results among registered voters released by Pew Research and overlooks Pew's final poll results released since 1996 among respondents deemed most likely to vote. In those four presidential elections, the Pew Research likely voter subgroup has been both more Republican in its composition than the registered voter sample, and a generally accurate forecast of the eventual result.



The consistent difference between the registered and likely voter samples raises the question: If likely voter screens applied at the end of the campaign nudged the horse race numbers in a more accurate (and more Republican) direction, why not apply such screens now?

The historical pattern of voter screens producing more Republican results remains as valid as ever. For example, when IPSOS pollster Chris Jackson used a likely voter screen to narrow April and May samples, he found that a 7 percentage point Obama lead over Romney among registered voters (42 to 35 percent) narrowed to just three points among the most likely to vote (46 to 43 percent).

- more -

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/18/mitt-romney-polls_n_1680827.html

[Motown_Johnny]

1. National polls as well as pre-debate polls both mean very little

We need to focus on the swing states and then we need to see what happens once the low information voters start to tune in. After that we need to focus on the swing states after the low information voters have started to tune in.

[LynneSin]

5. Last time I checked we don't win elections by popular vote either

Which explains George Bush in 2000.

[KharmaTrain]

2. Beauty Pagent Numbers...

National "popularity polls mean very little other than giving the pollsters a reason to jusify their existance and fodder for the cables to babble on for hours. The election is still decided by 50 separate elections and its those polls that have more merit. On the local/state level many of the more reliable polls are done by newspapers and TV stations and it'll be interesting to see if we see less of those polls as newspapers are on life support and corporates have scaled back local news operations. Nonetheless the numbers reflect what we already know...this country is bitterly polarized and 40% of the electorate will gladly vote against their best interests...

[ProSense]

3. They can

"National "popularity polls mean very little other than giving the pollsters a reason to jusify their existance and fodder for the cables to babble on for hours. "

...manipulate state polls too.

Virginia Poll Games: Quinnipiac Manipulates Samples To "Give" Romney a Tie

by joelgp

<...>

Last month when they found Obama up five, this was their sample:

REGISTERED VOTERS....
Weighted UnWeighted
Percent Frequency
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican 28% 404
Democrat 31 364
Independent 33 416
Other/DK/NA 8 98


This month, they arbitrarily weighted their own poll completely differently for um, some reason:

REGISTERED VOTERS....
Weighted UnWeighted
Percent Frequency
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican 28% 500
Democrat 28 439
Independent 37 630
Other/DK/NA 7 104

So actually, Romney's position didn't change, just the Qunnipiac's weighting. They increased republican weighting by 3% and, independents by 4% and we know tea partiers claim to be independent.

- more -

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/07/19/1111617/-Virginia-Poll-Games-Quinnipiac-Manipulates-Samples-To-Give-Romney-a-Tie

Except for "Independents," one could look at the second sample as the more accurate. Still, that's a big jump in the Independent sample. Do we know if they are right-leaning Independents?

Either way, the race is close.

[KharmaTrain]

4. Floating Definitions Of "Independents"...

I agree this race is going to be close...BUT...

As in most elections of the past 30 years it's the middle 10% that has the biggest sway but the definition of that middle and "independent" can vary from region to region, pollster to pollster.

I see three "independent" groups. First are the unhinged on both political ends. The teabaggers and Paulbots on the right and the Naderites/Greens (a far smaller group than on the right). Second are the diseffected...mostly moderate republicans who have no home in the current GOTB but can't embrace the Democrats either; socially liberal but still believing the "government is the problem" mantra...superficial and willing to look at Mittens cause he usually doesn't sound batshit crazy. Lastly are the truly "independent"...those who are apolitical and go issue by issue, moment by moment and those are the hardest to monitor or predict...usually getting engaged and making up their minds in the final weeks/days of the campaign.

It's gonna be a loooooooong 3 + months...

Cheers...

[LynneSin]

6. Screw the polls - the media needs to keep this election close

Close elections = Higher TV Ratings
Higher TV Ratings = Higher Advertising Dollars

The polls are bullshit

[ProSense]

7. Poll: Obama By 4 Points In Nevada, Romney Seen Favorably

Poll: Obama By 4 Points In Nevada, Romney Seen Favorably

A new poll from Republican-leaning pollster Magellan Strategies commissioned by the Las Vegas Review-Journal shows President Obama with a 4 point lead in Nevada on presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney, 50 percent to 46 percent.

Romney enjoys higher a favorability rating in the new Nevada numbers than most state polling: 47 percent of registered voters polled said they have a favorable view of him, versus 46 percent who have an unfavorable one. Obama is a bit higher at a 50 percent favorable and 47 percent unfavorable rating, but the President has typical enjoyed a big advantage on his personal rating through this cycle so far.

The PollTracker Average of the presidential race in Nevada shows Obama with a 4.6 percent advantage.

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/poll-obama-by-4-points-in-nevada-romney

The article in the LVRJ mentions that the poll was commissioned by Americans For Prosperity.

http://www.lvrj.com/blogs/politics/Nevada_poll_Obama_up_over_Romney_50-46_Heller_up_over_Berkley_45-42.html