Voting in 2018 Mid-Terms: 61% Republicans / 49% Democrats

[CousinIT]

Last edited Mon Nov 6, 2017, 10:22 AM - Edit history (1)

61% of Trump voters plan to vote in 2018 to show support for Trump; 49% of Clinton voters intend vote to show opposition, per ABC/WaPo poll.

A Democratic advantage in preference for the 2018 midterm elections fades to insignificance among the most likely voters in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, signs of the Democrats’ enduring challenges in turning out their voters in off-year contests.

In a hypothetical national ballot, Democratic congressional candidates hold a robust 11-point lead over their GOP counterparts, 51-40 percent, among registered voters overall. But winnow down to those who say they voted in the last midterms and are certain to do so again and the contest snaps essentially to a dead heat, 48-46 percent.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/democratic-advantage-18-poll/story?id=50918560

_ _ _

Will you vote in the 2018 Mid-Terms?

9 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Time expired
	Yes
	9 (100%)
	No
	0 (0%)
	0 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
Show usernames Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll

[Chasstev365]

1. Stupid Post: I don't believe it!

[maxrandb]

4. This poll ignores an extreme difference

I'm thinking that Democrats, Liberals, Progressives and all who love and care for their country, learned their lessons from the last Midterm

Assuming that those folks are going to stay home again is (hopefully) a NON-STARTER

[CousinIT]

10. Several people pointed out that Dem turnout in 2018 will likely be higher than 2014

I'd think quite a bit higher.

I hope Dems retake the House & Senate in 2018. Then Little Orange SHitler will be stuck with nobody to do his evil bidding in our gov't houses. It will be he and his criminal cabinet on their own (and they can do plenty of damage all by themselves).

Maybe SHitler will toss a hissy-fit and resign. Or...maybe our Dems will IMPEACH his ass then.

Anyway, that's my hope.

So - want EVERY Dem/Progressive to VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE in 2018!!

FORGET 2016 and the damn Sanders / Hillary crap.

WE. MUST. UNITE. AGAINST. TRUMP. NOW.

He is QUICKLY destroying our country and all it ever stood for.

This is Ground Zero. Not a drill.

[brush]

19. I don't either, and for good reasons. One being that 61% plus 49% equals 110%.

[dsc]

20. that isn't how those percents work

they are percents of different numbers. The post is saying 61% of people who voted for Trump will vote this time while only 49% of those who voted for Clinton will be doing so. I actually don't think this poll is accurate either but your reason isn't the reason.

[brush]

21. The head is still misleading though.

IMO it's purposely framed to look like repugs voters are beating Dem voters with those percentages.

And most of us know responders can easily be manipulated by the framing of the questions to have the poll results reflect what the pollster wants.

This seems to be a Debbie Downer/suppress the vote, concern OP.

[mn9driver]

2. This needs to change.

If we expect to win elections by being the anti-Trump party, we will be disappointed. People need something to vote for, not against, if they are going to turn out in large numbers.

[crazycatlady]

3. VOTE TOMORROW FIRST

Then worry about the midterms.

[lagomorph777]

12. I'm voting in VA tomorrow and will drag my wife out too.

Despite her health/mobility problems, we are both motivated.

[crazycatlady]

14. I already voted this year

I voted absentee (no reason needed in NJ). Can't wait until the Christie regime is over and Phil Murphy starts to pass progressive legislation.

[Ezior]

5. Good news

53% of voters who are certain to vote want to vote for a dem, only 40% for a Rep.

The 48% includes only voters who voted in 2014, when some of the 53% apparently were too lazy to vote. Some of them have now woken up, it seems, thereby adding 5% for Dems and shrinking Reps by 6%.

Now let's hope those voters keep their "I'm certain to vote!" opinion and won't let Russian Twitter or Facebook trolls convince them that their Dem candidate isn't pure enough or tried to rig whatever or is part of the evil establishment and just the same as the Repub candidate.

[OhZone]

6. Another point -

Trump supporters/voters are a minority. :/

[ProfessorGAC]

7. I'm Getting "Page Unavailable"

I wonder if they pulled the story back because they found something in error.

[CousinIT]

11. Sorry about that. I just fixed the link. Should work now. n/t

[maxrandb]

8. Is there a similar poll for the 2014 Midterms showing

"registered, certain to vote and (if old enough) voted in 2010?"

I'd like to see those numbers

[marylandblue]

9. Is this poll broken down by District?

In my overwhelmingly blue district, it doesn't matter if I vote or not, although I do intend to vote.

[lagomorph777]

13. Don't kid yourself. We have no idea that scale of hacking that may be going on right now.

The idea of a safe blue district is history.

[marylandblue]

15. I live in one of the bluest districts in the country

If they could turn my district red by hacking, we'd have 400 republicans in the house and my vote still won't count.

[Zambero]

16. And independent voters in this poll?

The graphics display voting intent of Dems and GOP voters, but there is no such display for independents. The plunge in Trump's poll ratings can be attributed in large part to the collapse of support among independent voters. They broke for him a year ago, and now approve of his job performance by a whopping 30%. There seems to be a bit of skewing in these figures.

[dawg]

17. If our base can't turn out under circumstances like these ...

then we need to find a new base.

[LongTomH]

22. Plan to work for Democratic candidates next year.

Phonebank, canvas, donate.

[Awsi Dooger]

23. Independents favor our side but motivation does not

That's 2018 in a nutshell. Fortunately independents have soured on Trump and shifted roughly 15-20% net since 2016. If we win the Virginia governors race tomorrow it will be due to that independent shift in preference.
.
We are never going to win 2018 based on energy or passion. That belongs to Republicans. This poll finding shouldn't be surprising at all. When I joined this site in early fall 2002 there was bizarre conventional wisdom that we were going to dominate the 2002 midterm based on revenge from Gore's outcome in 2000. I remember threads asserting we were going to sweep all the competitive senate races, based on that motivation advantage alone. I posted that it was ridiculous, that the other side would have more energy than we did. I quickly drew mixed reviews here, and some troll assignments. Didn't bother me in the least. Then as now I am not a cheerleader type. I had wagered heavily on politics for years and understood the statewide trends and also motivational realities. Bottom line when you pull out something like Republicans did in 2000, and now 2016, that's an incredible surge, a determination to go out and do it again. No segment of your base is deflated, unlike the side that loses narrowly and can't rationalize or accept it.

It was a simple application from my sports wagering background. Revenge is also for suckers there. Winning spawns winning while losers sulk and take time to regroup.

Single women do not care about midterms. That's partially why our landslide potential doesn't match Republican upside when the terrain is favorable. The electorate is roughly 53.5% female in presidential years but that drops to 51-51.5% in midterms.