Here Are the Districts That Will Be Brutal Battlegrounds in 2018

[pbmus]

Welcome back to House Party, our column looking at the 2018 House of Representative races as midterms approach.

Since the 2016 election, there’s been a lot of talk of “Obama–Trump voters,” people who cast ballots for Barack Obama twice before supporting Donald Trump. The assumption among many pundits is that Democrats will have to win back those voters if they want to overthrow Republican control of the federal government. But there are other tranches of voters Democrats should be thinking about as well. Today we’re going to take a tour of US House districts that voted for Obama in 2008 but switched to Mitt Romney in 2012 before switching again and voting for Hillary Clinton last year.


If 2018 turns out to be a wave election, Democrats should win most of these seats. But Obama-Romney-Clinton voters might be willing to back Republicans who are more like Romney than Trump, and they’re certainly going to be competitive. Let's take a look:

California’s 49th Congressional District (Southern Orange County/North San Diego County)

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/ywbyej/here-are-the-districts-that-will-be-brutal-battlegrounds-in-2018

[Laura PourMeADrink]

1. Kick

[marble falls]

2. Absolute kick! This stuff is IMPORTANT!

[Kentonio]

3. This is fascinating..

" (In fact, Ryan polls worse than Trump almost everywhere, even in his home state of Wisconsin.)"

I hadn't heard about that.

[Arazi]

4. K and R

[nolabels]

5. This is mostly B.S., Issa is toast and a strong up-and-coming candidate will easily beat out.......

an establishment picked candidate, especially round here

[pbmus]

7. We will not win by splitting voters between 2-3 democrats...

[nolabels]

8. It's called a Primary

Also in California, the top two voters get run by themselves in the general even if they are in the same party

[pbmus]

9. Exactly my point

[nolabels]

10. There is also a lot of independants and a good chance some would re-register to Democratic just.....

have the chance to make waves.

If those assinine republicans pass that tax bill they wave goodbye to California till the next century at anyrate

[pbmus]

11. From your puter to Gods ears...may it be so...

‘If those assinine republicans pass that tax bill they wave goodbye to California till the next century at anyrate ..

[PDittie]

12. To pbmus' point

Could Democrats be in danger of having too much of a good thing?

This, at least, is the line that Republicans in the traditional conservative stronghold of Orange County are peddling.

“All the Republicans are unified behind one candidate in each of these races and the Democrats have divided loyalties to candidates who have no name ID,” county GOP Chairman Fred Whitaker has said, according to the Orange County Register. “I’m pretty happy with it.”

And so, more than anywhere else, the O.C. will be the place to watch to find who’s right.

In November 2015, with roughly a year to go until Election Day 2016, only one Democrat had launched his candidacy across all of Orange County.

Now there are seven Democratic candidates running in Rohrabacher’s district alone — and 23 in the O.C. as a whole, where diversifying demographics, a dwindling Republican registration advantage and Hillary Clinton’s groundbreaking countywide victory in 2016 have Democrats eyeing four GOP incumbents previously considered safe: Reps. Rohrabacher; Ed Royce, CA-39; Mimi Walters, CA-45; and Darrell Issa, CA-49.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/democrats-2018-many-candidates-many-candidates-162905320.html

Rohrabacher has one Republican challenger. The danger exists that the seven Dems will dilute the vote, leaving the two Rs to advance to a runoff and defeating the entire purpose of all of this enthusiasm.

Lots more good reading at the link.

[xxqqqzme]

13. What worries me more in

the 48th (DUMP dana) is none of the 7 Democrats have any name recognition (and one of them is a former repug). But there are several HUDDLE (and one very organized Indivisible) groups doing good, energized grassroots work. I moved to Orange County the year DUMP dana was elected. 2018 is the best chance we have had to get rid of him.

[Amimnoch]

14. The severely gerrymandered Texas 7th is also in the mix.

I was Gerrymandered into this district in 2012.. a tRumpublicon stronghold since 1967.

However, we are active, mobilizing and gaining strength there. Despite their efforts we were within 12% of unseating that shithead Culberson in 2016 (which was a HUGE jump from the almost 30% difference in 2014).

The Nottingham, and Barker area neighborhoods are their strongholds, but if we could get the memorial and SW Houston sections hevily mobilized we can unseat that jackass come 2018. i was just at a fundraiser for James Cargas a couple weeks ago. Sooooo hoping and doing everything I can to see him put in 2018!!!

[dlk]

15. Time to Unhack the Voting Machines

[tomp]

16. A question on the premise...

Does anyone know anyone who voted for obama twice and then voted for trump? I think it is some kind of myth that there would be a statiscally significant number of such people.

[pbmus]

17. Obama pissed off a lot of people...hope and promises made...

And here we are....by the way I love the Obama’s ...probably get an alert but the truth hurts.

[tomp]

18. But do you personally know anyone in that category?

Voted for obama twice then trump?

[pbmus]

19. Probably do, but they arent admitting it....

[tomp]

20. I'll take that as a no. nt

[PDittie]

22. I know one who

voted for Sanders in the primary and Trump in the general. Don't know about his vote in 2012 or '08.

This is his blog:

https://digitalheretic.org/

[tomp]

23. Thanks for the honest effort.

That's a pretty strange phenomenon.

[bonniebgood]

21. I personally can't see repugs winning anywhere when they discover they cant

deduct the HUGE mortgage interest and State property Taxes. I have friends back home (CT) whose property taxes alone
is between 6-15 thousand a year.