Intrade: Obama 59.7, Romney 38.2.

[jenmito]

I can't figure out why Obama jumped about 5 points in the last days and why Romney has gone down a couple points. It's not like the media coverage changed much on Obama's side. Could it be all the Romney Bain and tax return problems? If so, that's great for our side. That won't stop anytime soon.

[russspeakeasy]

1. I think we're just seeing an accurate poll.

[jenmito]

2. It's now 59.8 to 38.1!

[smitra]

3. That's great!! Why doesn't it add up to 100?

Should it be 61.9 to 38.1? That would be even better!!!

[jenmito]

5. It doesn't have to add up to 100. Intrade is a betting site, but even most polls don't

add up to 100.

[DavidDvorkin]

6. Because it's not an either/or choice

It's not a poll. You could bet on both candidates, if you wanted to.

[arely staircase]

7. it means they put the odds of obama winning at by any amount at 61.9 percent

not that he will.win by that much.

[smitra]

9. OK. Thanks for the explanations. I guess I should read up a bit on how Intrade works. n/t

[Motown_Johnny]

8. There may still be a slight chance that Rmoney drops out and another (R)

runs and wins.

I would need to look into it more closely but a ~2% possibility seems about right.

[leveymg]

19. This looks about right. Most of the others are pushing a closer race agenda.

The MSM obviously wants this to be closer than it actually is so they can sell ads, so do both parties who want to GOTV.

[russspeakeasy]

20. Exactly.

[Curtland1015]

4. That's an awful big jump. Don't get me wrong, I WANT to believe they're accurate...

...but I think I'll wait and see the next one before getting too happy.

Still, any lead is a good lead.

[yumitaipan]

10. I can't speak for all InTraders but...

here's why I traded on that contract yesterday:

1. Woke up to the "Batman Massacre" news.
2. Realized that this would almost certainly make the media spend weeks talking about gun control, which would almost certainly spread to the campaigns.
3. Checked Obama and Romney's records on gun control (see Wash Post link below). Realized that, once again, Romney's Massachusetts record is at serious odds with the national GOP. And, realized that Obama has been more pro gun in the last 3 years than Romney was as governor.
4. Checked recent trade prices on the contract and made the decision that I thought Romney would decline from the ~40% odds at that moment, but probably wouldn't go below ~35% this far out from the election.
5. Shorted the contract at ~40, and bought the shares back late last night when it had dropped to ~38.
6. Pocketed 5% one-day profits.

My trading decisions have very little to do with my personal feelings on the "actual odds as of today" that either will get elected. This far out from the election, both candidates will float around 50 and there just isn't as much money to be made as on contracts trading at 1-2% that have a chance of spiking to 20/50/99%. Yesterday, my trades reflected my prediction on the tone of the media over the next few weeks and the spill-over effect I expect that to have on the candidate's campaign messaging and events.

For the record, the trades (and comment board) on the VP contracts probably gives more insight into the feelings of traders vis-a-vis this election. Traders were adjusting their picks all week based on the rumors Romney would announce his VP before going to London. After new of the shooting, I immediately began trading all my VP picks to factor in the ~1 month delay in learning the pick and started looking for VP picks with certain views on gun control. (Does Romney go super pro-guns? Try to avoid gun control? Go middle of the road and try the Obama 'I believe in the 2nd amendment and I believe in people's right to keep guns out of the hands of people who shouldn't have them' line?)

If you're trying to divine the "real odds" today of Obama victory, the day-to-day movements of the Intrade contract will tell you less than an educated read of public poll cross-tab data. If you're curious to learn why the perceived odds shift, read the comments below the GOP.VP and Pres.Win contracts.



http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/where-obama-and-romney-stand-on-gun-control/2012/07/20/gJQAwMpNyW_blog.html

[Motown_Johnny]

12. Welcome to DU. A very promising first post.

[yumitaipan]

14. In case it wasn't clear

I'm a life-long liberal with 0% chance of voting for Romney. But I have no problem making money off people who prefer to A) Believe everything they hear/read from Fox & Co, and B) Then decide to make irrational bets based on believing everything the Fox tells them.

My best InTrade bets so far: SCOTUS to uphold health care and Santorum to win Mississippi. Republicans refused to believe reality on both of those contracts.

[cbdo2007]

26. little more info on Intrade?

So, you buy the shares today say at $5.87 and you buy 100 shares for $587.

Then, in 3 weeks after some good news happens, let's say it's at $6.27. Would you then sell your shares for a profit of $40? Is that generally how it works? There's really no point in holding until the election and being correct, you want to sell when the price is high, right?? Just trying to see how it works for sure.

Interesting idea. I'm a short time stock trader, but have never looked into Intrade much. Are you limited to how many shares you can buy/own? Still doesn't seem as profitable as stocks but would be a fun bet to make.

[Motown_Johnny]

11. Look at Intrade's electoral map

http://electoralmap.net/2012/intrade.php





According to this he could lose FL and OH and VA and still win.

I think the odds jumped because some of the polls move a couple swing states from lean (D) to solid (D). Only OH and VA are light blue now and he doesn't need either one of them to win. If Pres. Obama can keep Rmoney fighting for those two states, which he must win, then it makes it much harder to campaign in others states which he also must win.

Advantage, Obama. 272 electoral votes in the solid (D) category with 31 more leaning that way.

[jenmito]

16. Yup...

I go to that site every day. Obama 303 to Romney's 235!

[yumitaipan]

18. A word of warning

That chart is based on the contracts for each individual state (GOP-Colorado, Dem-Colorado, Other-Colorado, etc) These contracts were listed at the beginning of Feb and have had virtually no trade volume since, and the bid-ask spread is often >50%.

Here's an example from Colorado: Obama-to-win
https://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=745726

In the 5 1/2 months its been listed, there have only been 57 contracts traded for ~$350. Right now, there are 21 open "ask" orders ranging in price from $6.50 - $7.20. For <$500 I could run that up to 85%+ odds, but that wouldn't really mean Obama's odds had changed in Colorado.

[speedoo]

22. And Florida's latest polling is very encouraging.

FL is a must win State for Romney, but he will have to fight hard to win there.. A FL win for Obama would almost offset losses in Ohio and Virginia.. If Romney loses Florida, he can't possibly be elected.

[Motown_Johnny]

24. It would be nice but he doesn't need any of them (according to Intrade's map)

Even without FL, OH and VA he gets 272.

[speedoo]

25. Right, could be an early call for Obama election night.

I think there is a very good chance Obama has more than 200 EV's from the east coast and midwest. Then you have a solid west coast that will deliver the coup de gras.

[flamingdem]

13. Finally people are absorbing the idea that Rmoney is a crook

as is indicated by his lack of transparency.

[jenmito]

15. Yup. And right now it's 60.0 to 38.0. n/t

[flamingdem]

17. That about matches the polls in California

Let's hope that gap widens. My main concern is holding the Senate.

[jimlup]

21. Darn I was thinking of buying shares a couple of days ago when it was still 57%

Guess I should still buy as I'd say the price is a bargain.

[speedoo]

23. Anyone know what the predictive accuracy of Intrade is?

I'm guessing it is very good.