PLEASE stop assuming that Republicans will "pay a price next year" for the tax bill

[EffieBlack]

First, it is terrible to allow people to suffer so that we can supposedly win elections in the future. Just wrong.

But it's also foolish since voters have very short memories and Republicans rarely pay any price for their wrongdoing. Remember how the 2013 government shutdown was supposed to be such a disaster for the GOP and voters were going to punish them mightily for it? And then, a year later, the Republicans took back the Senate. Two years after that, they took over the White House. Now they control all three branches of government. Some punishment.

It's possible that voters will seek revenge on the party, but it is also very likely that so much will happen between now and next November, that this vote on the tax bill will be a distant memory that has little to no effect on the 2018 elections. And what have we gotten for it? Infliction of significant pain on people who can't bear it without any electoral advantage.

No. We can't take that approach. It's wrong and it's short-sighted.

[stonecutter357]

1. Nope.

[SHRED]

2. Tell that to Chuck Schumer

I think this is the absolute wrong way to approach this.

Link to tweet

[hlthe2b]

3. What do you think Schumer should do instead?

[SHRED]

5. Continue to point out it's faults

It hasn't passed yet and until it does he needs to stay strong.

[EffieBlack]

12. He certainly needs to do more than gloat "heh heh heh - NOW we've got you where we want you!"

Remember when the House Dems taunted the Republicans by singing "Nah Nah Nah Hey Hey Hey Goodbye!" when the passed the ACA repeal?

Now that just looks ridiculous.

[hlthe2b]

25. I don't disagree,but my question was sincere. I truly don't know what they should do right now.

[BannonsLiver]

30. You got all that from one tweet?

Fascinating...I guess.

[EffieBlack]

39. No.

[bearsfootball516]

4. Nobody WANTS the bill to pass for purely political reasons

But if it does pass, it’s basically the GOP handing the gun to its executioner. And the Democratic Party would be insane not to take advantage.

At this point, it’s going to pass. So let’s use it to lay waste to the GOP in November.

[EffieBlack]

11. When was the last time a piece of GOP-passed legislation actually lost them an election?

[Jakes Progress]

18. We keep giving credit for rational thought

to people who have demonstrated that they do not have that ability by voting for trump.

Short version: Stupid people who voted for trump are stupid.

[mythology]

28. 2006 and 2008 were substantial wins prompted be Republican control

[EffieBlack]

37. Doesnt answer my question.

[Hoyt]

6. With the "compromise," almost everyone making under $125,000 or so will see a tax cut.

Beginning early 2018, the vast majority of people will have more money in their paychecks. That all most people care about.

We can yell this is a bad bill, but most people are going to look at their paychecks and say, "what's all the yelling about." They aren't going to care about the debt -- heck even people here have said the debt doesn't matter much -- potential cuts to Medicare, Medicaid, etc., because GOPers claim they have to cut the budget to cut the debt (that they just increased).


[Note: I say this risking another hide for "spreading right wing talking points."]

[SHRED]

8. This bill is back loaded

Repubs did this on purpose.

[crazylikafox]

10. I'm afraid you're right.

Most people's paychecks will go up next year. People whose taxes go up won't really see the pain until they file in 2019, when they realize their exemptions, itemized deductions & credits went away & they have to send a check to Uncle Sam instead of getting their usual refund.

By then the 2018 election will be over.

[Hoyt]

16. Actually, I don't think most people will have to pay when the file in 2019.

The "compromise" allows one to deduct $10,000 in local property and income taxes, medical care deduction were added back, etc.

Unless someone is living in a really high tax state or owns a very expensive home, I can't see anyone having to pay more than now if their income is less than $125K or so. If they have a lot of kids, the lost exemptions might hurt.

It's the indirect things that seem really onerous -- like the impact of the increased national debt on social programs if the GOPers get away with cutting them blaming the increased deficit (they created).

Here's the best comparison I've found of the "compromise:"

https://www.npr.org/2017/12/15/571258698/chart-how-the-new-version-of-the-republican-tax-bill-would-affect-you

[pwb]

20. Witholdings from pay checks will not change.

Unless you have a family of four your taxes are going up. Combining the standard deduction and personal exemption are a push, no real gain. Loss or lowering of deductions means more tax you owe. The tax tables have not been changed at all. Average Americans will owe more or gain only a few dollars if any. The republicans are pushing the family of four trick. They may pay a little less, the rest of us are fucked. The wealthy and corporations make out like bandits. Corporations like G E paid no federal taxes for years and now probably qualify for money while paying nothing. So I have to respectfully disagree with your thought that nobody will notice. We will and the pukes will pay in 2018 big time. We are on to their lies and trickery, it works less for them more and more as time goes by, even for their base.

[Hoyt]

23. Look it up. The rates are cut and most people don't own a $1Million home or

make $150,000 in a high tax state. Most people don't know what GE or any other corporation pays in taxes.

I agree the bill sucks, I just don't think most people will see that, or care sadly. They'll see extra money in their pay check and probably question what all the fuss was about. If the economy is humming -- even if we know it was Obama's economy -- next year and voters have extra money in their pocket, we'll have a fight to win House.

If someone has 5 kids, they might see an increase.

[lunasun]

36. Thanks for the link

[SHRED]

7. Yes...

...assuming this tax bill will affect voters negatively next year or the year after is foolish.
Republicans wrote in the nasty parts for later.

[bluestarone]

9. but they are getting rid of the mandate right?

THIS will be the biggest win for them assholes. Isn't there someway to fight just this part? (lawsuit or something) Are they in violation of some congressional rule?

[Wounded Bear]

13. It's not about "assuming" anything...

It's about organizing and advertising and informing the public over the next year.

We're discussing talking points and working to get the electorate out.

All this is fodder for the mill in 2018.

[EffieBlack]

14. I'll believe it when I see it

Republicans will lie their asses off and too many voters will likely believe them, as they usually do.

Democrats will need to be more effective at their messaging than they were in 2010, 2014 and 2016 - and, right now, I'm not feeling very hopeful that they'll do it. I fear they'll spend too much time and energy trying to convince stupid people to walk away from the Republicans and not enough time shoring up getting out the vote of the people who are already on our side - and who will vote Democratic in overwhelming numbers if we help them get to the polls.

Instead, I fear we'll complacently assume that people will figure out how bad the Republicans are if we just tell them louder and louder and end up right where we are now.

[Jakes Progress]

19. If having better ideas

and informing the public of those ideas worked, trump wouldn't be president. The media will not cooperate unless there is a dead white girl or cute puppy in the story for gassing ratings.

[L. Coyote]

15. With 1.5 TRILLION $$$$$$ more than before to spend on campaigns ....

The Trumps alone will have a BILLION more on their balance sheet.

[Fullduplexxx]

17. Agreed . the cons crashed the economy in 08 and now they have all 3 branches

Never underestimate the depth of the lazy apathy of the americans

[LeftInTX]

21. Unless Republicans cut SS/Medicare next year, most voters won't care.

If they cut Social Security and Medicare, voters will take note. The tax cut by itself isn't going to effect the middle class in a negative way. It won't go into effect until 2019. Cuts to government services will not take effect until then.

[MFM008]

22. Blue state republicans

Are going to pay for the maggots sins in Nov.
ESPECIALLY if he fires Mueller or
issues blanket pardons.
The anger is smoldering out here against him
People are anxious and energized to vote.
I know some counting off days.

[karynnj]

24. I agree

In the first place, they won't actually pay 2018 taxes until April 2019. The changes are complex enough that many might think they are doing better under the new tax law than they really are. It will depend on how accurately money is withheld. The old W4s will be outdated as there are no personal deductions and many people who now itemize will not under the new plan.

However, there is the other shoe that likely will not fall until after the midterms. If, as virtually all respected economists think, this bill does not lead to enough growth that tax revenue does not fall -- what will they cut to pay for it? Rolling back the tax increases might sound completely reasonable, but we will have a Republican President to veto it even if we took over both houses of Congress.

The "cost" to people will be what they gain or lose on their taxes PLUS what they lose from programs that directly or indirectly help them.

[Dawson Leery]

26. Blue State Rethugs are going to pay dearly for this.

[Stinky The Clown]

27. You're absolutely correct. And even this tax bill is gamed. It is not until 2019, after the midterms

That the really vile shit kicks in. 2018 will be tax rate reduction, which the Moron-Americans will cheer for. And if their free porn keeps streaming, what's there to hate the GOPedo for?

[estefanyo]

29. Due to the 2007 recession, Republicans paid a price

Obama won twice.

[tazkcmo]

31. I'm not. n/t

[Kirk Lover]

32. Short term I believe this will help them, people are going to see a measly few bucks back

and they're all going to be OH GOODY. Now long term...not so sure about that...but the American people have a memory problem...obviously.

[MiniMe]

33. They are pulling the scam of adjusting the withholding tables so they can say you got more in your

paycheck. But it isn't going to change how much tax they will have to pay for 2018 which may or may not be less than they owe for this year. Of course, the savings won't help much since the cost of a lot of things, like healthcare will go up.

[Clarity2]

34. Just the mere fact

that they are talking about messing with SS and medicare? Unless the “fix” is in for the elections, then trust me, they will pay. Most voters will depend on SS for their retirement The small percentage that dont are the 1%’ers.

[Clarity2]

35. Also

A majority are OUTRAGED by Trump and the way the GOP are handling russiagate . A small tax cut isnt going to negate that. People wont forget this. This is different than the memory of a previous government shutdown. The stakes are huge. We are at risk of losing our democracy. I think many more people have woken up to that. They see that trump lies on a daily basis. Its pretty hard to hide. His small core supporters might live in a bubble, but most dont.

[lunasun]

38. Also please don't expect any of this like assumed in 2014 and then once again in 2016

There are way too many American women still voting republican and that may not change no matter who is running for thier party seat in 18. There will be no price to pay with this either for them
Remember the vote in 2014 & then repeated again in 16.



Also happy that people getting screwed on the tax bill because that means more democratic wins in 18 is too similar to what I saw in 16. People happy that trump was so outwardly racist and sexist and wanted him to keep talking because it guaranteed a big democratic win.

[EffieBlack]

40. Exactly!

You get it.

If they find themselves doing better, even temporarily, they'll give Trump and the GOP credit. If they do worse, they'll buy the Republican spin that it's all the Democrats fault.

For example, the Republicans have completely screwed them over on healthcare but taking away the mandate. But if they notice an increase in cost, the Republicans will blame Obamacare, not the fact that they undercut it. And voters will buy it.

We have got to stop treating the people who have been voting Republican as if they're using rational thought. If they were, they wouldn't be voting the way they do. And telling them the same things we told them in 2014 and 2016 - only louder and more excitedly - won't get them to change their vote.

I really think we should just leave them over there with the Republicans and focus more of our energy on building our voting base with the people we don't have to convince to vote Democratic. We just have to motivate and then help them get to the polls. I'm tired of trying to convince clueless people to see the light. That may be a good long-term strategy when we don't have anything else better to do, but right now, we're fighting for the soul and future of this country and don't have time to waste with the people who, after all they've seen and experienced, still don't know any better. They're not going to suddenly change because we start yelling "Tax cut! Tax cut!" at them next year - they're reaction to that will likely be "Tax cut? Cool!"

[Sneederbunk]

41. The bill will be cloudy until returns actually filed in 2019.