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Purveyor

(29,876 posts)
Tue Mar 10, 2015, 01:31 AM Mar 2015

Poroshenko: Rebels Have Withdrawn Significant Amount Of Heavy Weaponry In Eastern Ukraine

Source: Deutsche Welle

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said Monday that pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine have withdrawn a significant amount of heavy weaponry from the front lines, appearing to honor the terms of a recently-brokered ceasefire.

"There is a ceasefire, or there isn't. It depends on how you look at it. You can say that we managed to halt the offensive drive of the aggressor," Poroshenko said in an interview broadcast on Ukrainian state television.

"Ukraine has withdrawn the lion's share of its rocket and heavy artillery systems. The Russian-backed fighters have also withdrawn a significant amount," Poroshenko said.

The truce, negotiated in the Belarusian capital of Minsk, has been largely holding, although Kyiv charges the rebels with continuing to fire on government positions and using the ceasefire to regroup and rearm for additional offensives - charges the separatists deny.

Read more: http://www.dw.de/poroshenko-rebels-have-withdrawn-significant-amount-of-heavy-weaponry-in-eastern-ukraine/a-18304751

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Poroshenko: Rebels Have Withdrawn Significant Amount Of Heavy Weaponry In Eastern Ukraine (Original Post) Purveyor Mar 2015 OP
K&R elias49 Mar 2015 #1
The so called many ceasefires that were routinely ignored JonLP24 Mar 2015 #2
EU to Provide More Funding to Ukraine, Russia Seeks Sanctions Alleviation bemildred Mar 2015 #3
US refusal to send weapons to Ukraine gives peace a chance – top Russian MP bemildred Mar 2015 #4
German Ambassador: Obama Agreed Not to Send Arms to Ukraine bemildred Mar 2015 #5
Russia Suggests West Impose Sanctions On Ukraine bemildred Mar 2015 #6
Russia’s Endgame in Ukraine bemildred Mar 2015 #7
Gazprom Says Ukraine Has Paid for Russian Gas Until March 15 bemildred Mar 2015 #8
Obama, Tusk Call for U.S.-EU Unity on Russia Sanctions bemildred Mar 2015 #9
. nt bemildred Mar 2015 #10
Putin's Russia could be 'single greatest threat to Britain's security,' Philip Hammond warns bemildred Mar 2015 #11
‘We did what we had to do’: Putin opens up on Crimea reunification plan bemildred Mar 2015 #12
Air Castles in the Kaganate of Nuland bemildred Mar 2015 #13
Suicide Or Homicide? In Ukraine, Old-Guard Officials Dying Mysteriously bemildred Mar 2015 #14
Former Regional Governor In Ukraine Found Dead bemildred Mar 2015 #25
Significant =/= majority. Igel Mar 2015 #15
Don't Blame British Spies For Ukraine Crisis bemildred Mar 2015 #16
Volunteer Ukrainian unit includes Nazis bemildred Mar 2015 #17
US says about 500 Russian soldiers killed in eastern Ukraine bemildred Mar 2015 #18
More Russian tanks, equipment cross Ukraine border: U.S. official bemildred Mar 2015 #19
US Envoy: Eastern Ukraine, Crimea Under 'Reign of Terror' bemildred Mar 2015 #24
Lavrov Blasts EU’s Tusk Over Ukraine Comments bemildred Mar 2015 #20
Spain says suffering 'big losses' from Russian sanctions bemildred Mar 2015 #21
Russia's Misstep: How Putin's Ukraine Adventure Backfired bemildred Mar 2015 #22
Ukraine, Russia and the west bemildred Mar 2015 #23

JonLP24

(29,322 posts)
2. The so called many ceasefires that were routinely ignored
Tue Mar 10, 2015, 03:41 AM
Mar 2015

was like a long running joke this is from February -- Ukraine Crisis: Ceasefire Broken Hours After It Was Called, Report Says http://www.ibtimes.com/ukraine-crisis-ceasefire-broken-hours-after-it-was-called-report-says-1816834

It was such a recurring theme to see ceasefire ignored

This is from December

https://twitter.com/vicenews/status/550285873762557952

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
3. EU to Provide More Funding to Ukraine, Russia Seeks Sanctions Alleviation
Tue Mar 10, 2015, 08:18 AM
Mar 2015

The EU intends to provide a new financial aid package to Ukraine estimated at EUR 110M in 2015.

The statement was made by European Commissioner for European Neighbourhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations, Johannes Hahn, TASS news agency reported.

He said that the larger portion of the sum will be utilized to assist the private sector in the country.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko announced Tuesday that heavy weapons have been pulled back from Donbass.

http://www.novinite.com/articles/167110/EU+to+Provide+More+Funding+to+Ukraine%2C+Russia+Seeks+Sanctions+Alleviation

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
4. US refusal to send weapons to Ukraine gives peace a chance – top Russian MP
Tue Mar 10, 2015, 08:19 AM
Mar 2015

Barack Obama’s decision not to supply lethal weaponry to Kiev is good for the prospects of realization of the Minsk ceasefire agreements, according to the head of the State Duma Committee for CIS Affairs and Eurasian Integration.

“The decision of US President Barack Obama to abstain from supplying American lethal weapons to Ukraine, made upon the results of the meeting with German chancellor Angela Merkel, increases the chances that the Minsk accords will be put into effect,” MP Leonid Slutskiy of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia told reporters on Tuesday.

“A fragile hope has appeared that the ceasefire will not be broken by external factors and the process of de-escalating the conflict will continue,” he said.

Slutskiy added that the decision was, in his view, the only “spark of common sense” demonstrated by a US politician over the last year in regards to the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis.

http://rt.com/politics/239233-obama-weapons-ukraine-slutskiy/

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
5. German Ambassador: Obama Agreed Not to Send Arms to Ukraine
Tue Mar 10, 2015, 08:20 AM
Mar 2015

President Barack Obama agreed last month not to send lethal defensive aid to Ukraine, a top German diplomat said Monday, as lawmakers from both parties continued to press the president to shore up Ukraine's beleaguered military in its fight against Russian-backed separatists, ap.com reports.

The German ambassador to the U.S., Peter Wittig, said in an Associated Press interview that Obama agreed to hold off during a White House meeting in February with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. He said Obama had concurred with Merkel that it was important "to give some space for those diplomatic, political efforts that were underway."

"The two leaders exchanged views on that issue and there was unity by them not to impose, or not to go forward with, the delivery of lethal defensive weapons at this time," Wittig told the AP.

The Obama administration has maintained publicly that it's still debating whether to send anti-tank weapons and other defensive arms to bolster Kiev's ability to defend its territory and troops in eastern Ukraine. In remarks to reporters after his meeting with Merkel, Obama said that "the possibility of lethal defensive weapons is one of those options that's being examined" but added that "a decision has not yet been made."

http://azh.kz/en/news/view/5707

This, by the way, is why I still support Obama.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
6. Russia Suggests West Impose Sanctions On Ukraine
Tue Mar 10, 2015, 08:21 AM
Mar 2015

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has suggested the West should impose sanctions on Kyiv to further a deal to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine.

Speaking on March 10, Lavrov accused Ukraine of reneging on commitments he said it made under the February 12 deal reached in Minsk for a cease-fire and steps toward peace between the government and Russian-backed rebels.

Lavrov said that "full implementation of the Minsk agreements is essentially being blocked by the Kyiv authorities."

"I don't know what instruments of pressure on Kyiv the Americans and Europeans have," he said. "But maybe [they should] impose their favorite mechanism of sanctions on Kyiv in this case."

http://www.rferl.org/content/lavrov-sanctions-ukraine-kyiv-russia-minsk/26891519.html

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
7. Russia’s Endgame in Ukraine
Tue Mar 10, 2015, 08:21 AM
Mar 2015

More than a year after the crisis began in eastern Ukraine, Russia remains undeterred in its goal of keeping Ukraine from moving closer to the West. Russia has backed the violent separatist uprising and taken a pivotal role in the talks about Ukraine’s future.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/03/06/world/europe/russias-endgame-in-ukraine.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=0

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
8. Gazprom Says Ukraine Has Paid for Russian Gas Until March 15
Tue Mar 10, 2015, 08:22 AM
Mar 2015

Russia's top natural gas producer Gazprom said on Tuesday that Ukraine's pre-paid volumes of Russian gas would last until March 15, TASS news agency cited the company's spokesman as saying.

On Friday, Gazprom said it had received $15 million from Ukrainian state energy firm Naftogaz for gas deliveries.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/gazprom-says-ukraine-has-paid-for-russian-gas-until-march-15/517208.html

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
9. Obama, Tusk Call for U.S.-EU Unity on Russia Sanctions
Tue Mar 10, 2015, 08:23 AM
Mar 2015

(Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama and European Council President Donald Tusk called for unity on sanctioning Russia for its actions in Ukraine, even as differences are emerging on how far to go.

“We are all committed to making sure that we uphold the basic principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity that have been threatened by Russian aggression,” Obama said in the Oval Office before meeting with Tusk. “We have been able to maintain strong unity with respect to sanctions.”

Obama and Tusk met at the White House amid discussions between the U.S. and its European allies about when and whether to impose tougher sanctions on Russia for its actions in Ukraine. Tusk, a former Polish prime minister, said in an interview published Sunday in the New York Times that Europe isn’t ready to toughen sanctions.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-09/obama-tusk-call-for-u-s-eu-unity-on-sanctions-against-russia

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
11. Putin's Russia could be 'single greatest threat to Britain's security,' Philip Hammond warns
Tue Mar 10, 2015, 08:42 AM
Mar 2015

Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond has made some of the strongest comments by a minister since the start of the Ukraine crisis, warning that Russia under Vladimir Putin is potentially the "single greatest threat" to Britain's security.

Mr Hammond said the Russian leader had decisively rejected efforts to draw his country into a "rules-based" international order and was now actively seeking to subvert it.

He added that in the face of the "increasingly aggressive" stance of the Russian military, the effort to establish its intentions was now once again a "vital" element of the work of Britain's intelligence agencies – MI5, MI6 and GCHQ.

"The rapid pace with which Russia is seeking to modernise her military forces and weapons combined with the increasingly aggressive stance of the Russian military including Russian aircraft around the sovereign airspace of Nato states are all significant causes of concern," he said in a speech to the Royal United Services Institute in London.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11461324/Putins-Russia-could-be-single-greatest-threat-to-Britains-security-Philip-Hammond-warns.html

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
12. ‘We did what we had to do’: Putin opens up on Crimea reunification plan
Tue Mar 10, 2015, 08:43 AM
Mar 2015

The decision to give Crimea an opportunity to choose if it wants to be a part of Russia again was made after an unofficial survey showed the majority of Crimeans would back reunification, Vladimir Putin revealed in an interview to a Russian TV channel.

The interview is part of a documentary, “Crimea. The Road Back Home,” scheduled to be aired by the Rossiya One TV channel. In the film, the Russian president has given new insights into the events leading up to last year's referendum in Crimea.

The vote took place after days of violence on the streets of Kiev, which came to be known as the Maidan revolution. The government was overthrown in February 2014, and the Ukrainian president fled the capital.

The highly volatile situation prompted President Putin to convene an urgent meeting with his national security and defense chiefs, during which a crucial decision was taken.

http://rt.com/news/239197-putin-crimea-referendum-decision/

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
13. Air Castles in the Kaganate of Nuland
Tue Mar 10, 2015, 09:04 AM
Mar 2015

There is land of wonder where magic princes and princesses rescue humble folk from the malignant spells of wicked sorcerers. Call it the Kaganate of Nuland: I refer of course to Assistant Secretary of State for Europe Victoria Nuland and her spouse Robert Kagan, respectively the source of the silliest statement on record about U.S. foreign policy (“F— the Europeans”) and the worst book on foreign policy in a generally dismal decade.

I reviewed Kagan’s awful tome when it appeared three years ago, with its fairy-tale thesis about the inevitable triumph of liberal democracy. “It is possible that in the Arab Spring we are seeing a continuation of the Third Wave, or perhaps even a fourth. The explosion of democracy is about to enter a fifth straight decade, the longest and broadest such expansion in history,” Kagan wrote. Nuland got her 15 minutes of fame when someone, presumably Russian intelligence, leaked her expletive-adorned 2013 conversation with America’s ambassador to Ukraine to YouTube.

Kagan and Nuland authentically believed that Ukraine’s Maidan Square overthrow of the Yanukovich government would inspire a democracy movement in Russia that eventually would depose Vladimir Putin, just as they believed that the Arab Spring heralded a great wave of democracy in the Middle East. Instead, Putin rose to the highest popularity ranking (at 86%) of his long and checkered career, and Russian hostility to America surpassed the levels of the Soviet era. “More than 80 percent of Russians now hold negative views of the United States, according to the independent Levada Center, a number that has more than doubled over the past year and that is by far the highest negative rating since the center started tracking those views in 1988,” the Washington Post reported March 9.

The Europeans — upon whose doorstep the Ukrainian mess has landed — are understandably aghast. Der Spiegel, Germany’s largest news organization, complained March 6 that Nuland and some other Americans want “regime change” in Moscow. I want regime change in Moscow, too; I also want the restoration of the Temple sacrifices in Jerusalem, but do not expect to get what I want anytime soon. For the foreseeable future we shall have to live with Putin, and promoting regime change is the equivalent of shooting spitballs at the zoo lion: It simply increases the likelihood that the zookeeper will get eaten.

http://pjmedia.com/spengler/2015/03/08/air-castles-in-the-kaganate-of-nuland/

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
14. Suicide Or Homicide? In Ukraine, Old-Guard Officials Dying Mysteriously
Tue Mar 10, 2015, 09:07 AM
Mar 2015

This year Ukraine has seen a bizarre string of deaths involving high-ranking officials, including a ex-city mayor, a former railway executive, and the former head of the state body in charge of privatization.

A total of five officials died in a single 34-day period between January 28 and February 28. In each case, the deaths have been ruled probable suicides. But the victims' political allegiances and job histories have led many in Ukraine to suspect that the men were in fact murdered:

January 26 -- Mykola Serhiyenko, the former first deputy chief of the state-run Ukrainian Railways, died in his Kyiv home after apparently shooting himself with a registered hunting rifle.

Investigators said Serhiyenko, 57, was alone at the time of the tragedy, and that all of the flat's doors and windows had been locked shut from the inside and showed no signs of tampering.

http://www.rferl.org/content/suicide-homicide-ukraine-officials/26888375.html

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
25. Former Regional Governor In Ukraine Found Dead
Thu Mar 12, 2015, 10:24 AM
Mar 2015

A former governor of Ukraine's Zaporizhzhya region has been found dead with a gunshot wound to his throat, the latest in a string of violent deaths of officials with ties to ousted leader Viktor Yanukovych.

Police officials said Oleksandr Peklushenko, governor of the southeastern region from 2011 until March 2014, most likely committed suicide.

They said his body was found in his home in the town of Sonyachniy near the regional capital, Zaporizhzhya, on March 12.

Peklushenko, 60, was a member of Yanukovych's Party of Regions and formerly represented it in parliament.

http://www.rferl.org/content/former-ukraine-regional-governor-dead/26896759.html

Igel

(35,300 posts)
15. Significant =/= majority.
Tue Mar 10, 2015, 11:34 AM
Mar 2015

Still artillery shelling around Shirokyne, around Pervomais'k, Pesky, and other places.

Maps. In Ukr. Probably Russian versions around somewhere.

http://informator.lg.ua/?p=75698

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
16. Don't Blame British Spies For Ukraine Crisis
Tue Mar 10, 2015, 04:29 PM
Mar 2015

It may be stating the obvious. After all, in the last year Russia has stolen Crimea - and invaded eastern Ukraine.

But Britain's Foreign Secretary issued the chilling warning anyway.

"We are now faced with a Russian leader bent not on joining the international rules-based system which keeps the peace between nations, but on subverting it ... with Russia's aggressive behaviour a stark reminder that it has the potential to pose the single greatest threat to our society," Philip Hammond said.

Then he reminded his audience of defence experts at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) that "it is no coincidence that all the (intelligence) agencies are recruiting Russian speakers again".

http://news.sky.com/story/1442425/dont-blame-british-spies-for-ukraine-crisis

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
17. Volunteer Ukrainian unit includes Nazis
Tue Mar 10, 2015, 04:29 PM
Mar 2015

MARIUPOL, Ukraine — A volunteer brigade with self-proclaimed Nazis fighting alongside government troops against Russian-backed separatists is proving to be a mixed blessing to its cause.

Though the 900-member Azov Brigade adds needed manpower to repulse the rebels, members who say they are Nazis are sparking controversy, and complaints of abuses against civilians have turned some residents against them.

A drill sergeant who would identify himself only as Alex wore a patch depicting Thor's Hammer, an ancient Norse symbol appropriated by neo-Nazis, according to the Anti-Defamation League.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/03/10/ukraine-azov-brigade-nazis-abuses-separatists/24664937/

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
18. US says about 500 Russian soldiers killed in eastern Ukraine
Tue Mar 10, 2015, 04:30 PM
Mar 2015

WASHINGTON

The top U.S. diplomat for Europe said Tuesday that hundreds of Russian soldiers have been killed since the start of the crisis in Ukraine.

"It's pretty difficult to have a completely accurate assessment, given Russia's efforts to mask its dead," said Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland. "I can't speak to more than 400 or 500 at the moment.”

Nuland testified before the House Foreign Affairs Committee while Republican and Democratic continued to pressure the White House to support Ukraine with weapons to defend itself against pro-Russian separatists attacks.

Crimea is suffering severe hardship, according to Nuland.

http://www.aa.com.tr/en/rss/476653--us-says-about-500-russian-soldiers-killed-in-eastern-ukraine

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
19. More Russian tanks, equipment cross Ukraine border: U.S. official
Tue Mar 10, 2015, 04:31 PM
Mar 2015

(Reuters) - Russian tanks and heavy military equipment have crossed the Ukrainian border in the last few days in breach of a European-brokered ceasefire agreed on Feb. 12, a senior U.S. State Department official said on Tuesday.

The comments by U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Europe, Victoria Nuland, follow accusations by Ukraine and Western governments that Russia continues to send troops and weapons to support separatists in eastern Ukraine despite the ceasefire deal, a charge the Kremlin has denied.

Eastern Ukraine and Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula annexed by Russia a year ago, was "suffering a reign of terror," Nuland told a congressional hearing on Ukraine, adding that the White House was still considering whether to arm Ukraine's military.

The last few days have seen new transfers of Russian tanks, armored vehicles, heavy artillery and rocket equipment over the border to the separatists, Nuland told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/10/us-ukraine-crisis-congress-hearing-idUSKBN0M61UB20150310?rpc=401

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
24. US Envoy: Eastern Ukraine, Crimea Under 'Reign of Terror'
Tue Mar 10, 2015, 08:02 PM
Mar 2015

A top U.S. diplomat for Europe says citizens in large parts of war-torn eastern Ukraine and Crimea are living under "a reign of terror" spawned by a new influx of Russian military hardware.

Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, speaking Tuesday, told the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee that Russian tanks, armored vehicles and Russian artillery have poured across the border in recent days.

"Russia and its separatist puppets have unleashed unspeakable violence and pillage," she said. "This is a manufactured conflict controlled by the Kremlin, fueled by Russian tanks and heavy weapons and financed at Russian taxpayers' expense."

Nuland also told the panel the Obama administration has not yet decided whether to supply the Kyiv government with defensive weaponry in its fight against Moscow-backed separatists near the Russian border. She said talks on such aid are ongoing as administration officials monitor a cease-fire deal reached February 15.

http://www.voanews.com/content/us-envoy-eastern-ukraine-crime-under-reign-of-terror/2675022.html

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
20. Lavrov Blasts EU’s Tusk Over Ukraine Comments
Tue Mar 10, 2015, 04:32 PM
Mar 2015

MOSCOW—

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov criticized European Council President Donald Tusk on Tuesday for “stirring up tensions” between Moscow and the bloc against what he said was a desire by some member states for better ties with the Kremlin.

Lavrov, speaking at a news conference in Moscow after talks with visiting Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo, referred to Tusk's talks with U.S. President Barack Obama on Monday.

“Through the process of building consensus, the EU members themselves need to define the limits of conduct of officials who sit in Brussels and make statements for all 28 member states,” Lavrov said.

Lavrov blamed European Union representatives in Brussels of trying to build an impression that there was no progress in the Minsk agreements, a deal aimed at stopping the violence in east Ukraine.

http://www.voanews.com/content/reu-lavrov-tusk-ukraine/2674460.html

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
21. Spain says suffering 'big losses' from Russian sanctions
Tue Mar 10, 2015, 04:33 PM
Mar 2015

Moscow (AFP) - Spain said Tuesday its economy had taken a significant hit as a result of tit-for-tat EU and Russian sanctions over Moscow's backing of separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine.

Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo said his country had racked up "big losses" from the sanctions, after a meeting with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Moscow.

"No one is benefiting from these sanctions which are causing significant prejudice to the Spanish economy," he said during a joint news conference.

Last year the EU and United States slapped economic sanctions on Moscow which they accuse of arming and backing the rebels - a charge denied by the Kremlin.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/business/world/a/26588090/

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
22. Russia's Misstep: How Putin's Ukraine Adventure Backfired
Tue Mar 10, 2015, 06:51 PM
Mar 2015

“Russia is winning” the Ukraine crisis, or so goes the conventional account. This claim has elements of truth to it—narrowly conceived, Russia has gained much in the last year. President Putin has boldly returned control of the Crimean peninsula to Russia. He has crippled Ukraine through a new “hybrid warfare” that the West seems unable to counter. Moscow has demonstrated its resolve and resilience in the face of Western sanctions, even as President Putin has watched his domestic approval ratings skyrocket. And the Kremlin has reminded the world that Russia is determined to control its neighborhood, and that it remains a great power worthy of respect.

But Putin’s short-term victories should not blind Western policymakers to the significant costs that Russia has racked up. In particular, through its annexation of Crimea and subsequent policies, Moscow has ensured that Ukraine will no longer act as a buffer state and will instead gravitate to the West for the foreseeable future. What’s more, Russia’s security situation has continued to deteriorate amidst a series of missteps and predictable backlashes from the international community. And worst of all, the Kremlin cannot reverse its error and must instead rely on additional, costly policies in order to mitigate the fallout from its initial mistake.

From the end of the Cold War until early 2014, Ukraine acted as the quintessential buffer state. Both Russia and the West wanted to integrate the country into their respective spheres of influence, but Kiev remained independent and largely neutral.

Ukraine’s demographic make-up offers at least a partial explanation. Samuel Huntington dubbed Ukraine a “cleft country” based on its relatively even divide between pro-Western voters in the west and pro-Russian voters in the east. Indeed, this east-west divide had characterized every presidential election since the country’s independence, and it explained why control of Kiev oscillated back and forth between pro-Russian and pro-Western leaders. Thus, in 1999 and 2004, the western oblasts took Kiev, while the eastern oblasts won in 1991, 1994, and 2010.

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/russias-misstep-how-putins-ukraine-adventure-backfired-12394

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
23. Ukraine, Russia and the west
Tue Mar 10, 2015, 08:01 PM
Mar 2015

---

A good look at Putin’s summation of the agreement would suggest that it is more like a catalogue of unsolved issues that lie at the heart of the Ukrainian crisis, without laying down a detailed pathway to peace. Unless there is a concrete blueprint to tackle the underlying issues in an orderly and time-bound framework, the new agreement is likely to go the way of the first Minsk peace plan. The previous ceasefire negotiated in September, also in Minsk, collapsed almost immediately after the deal. Since then, the Ukrainian separatists have advanced their positions to consolidate their hold on some of the important transport hubs. As for constitutional reform to grant autonomy to eastern Ukraine, Kiev’s understanding of it is to somehow fudge the issue while the rebels settle for nothing less than a virtual, independent state aligned with Russia, basically an extended Russian zone of influence.

While the new peace plan is a helpful development if it holds, the chances of its going much further are rather dubious. In that case, it would lead to even more western sanctions against Russia. As it is Russia’s economy is hurting from both western sanctions and the plunge in global oil prices, an important revenue source for the country. With its foreign exchange reserves depleting, Russia is going to face some serious economic problems that might create difficult political issues for the regime. The Putin regime is going to frame this crisis — as it is already doing — as a western threat to its security and rally people around a patriotic cause. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, also blamed on the west, this new threat to Russia’s security might rally many patriotic Russians behind the regime, at least in the short term.

Putin has indicated that there will be economic difficulties for about two years. He obviously hopes that Russians can weather this crisis for that period. There is some basis for this. First, Ukraine’s portrayal as a freedom loving country fighting for its sovereignty is grossly exaggerated. It is an economic basket case, corruption-ridden and a good chunk of the governing coalition has a fascist background. Even with all the money thrown at it by western institutions, it is unlikely to become economically functional. As George Soros, who is a great proponent of economic sanctions against Russia and military and economic aid to Ukraine has pointed out, “A Russian default (resulting from western sanctions) could cause considerable disruption in the global financial system with the euro area being particularly vulnerable.” He adds, “Russia is in the midst of a financial crisis, which is helping to turn the threat of deflation in the Eurozone into a reality.”

In other words, sanctions are not just hurting Russia but also Europe, though not as severely. And, above all, if the Ukrainian crisis escalates, despite the recent peace proposals, it has the great potential of developing into some sort of military confrontation between Russia and the west with Ukraine as its epicentre. It is, therefore, imperative for cool heads on both sides to de-escalate the situation by taking into account Russia’s strategic concerns as part of a wider settlement.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/opinion/11-Mar-2015/ukraine-russia-and-the-west

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