Poll: Trump Running As Independent Would Crush GOP's 2016 Chances

[DonViejo]

Source: TPM

A poll released Friday showed that Donald Trump would completely blow the Republican Party's chances of winning the presidency in 2016 if he ran as an independent.

The McClatchy-Marist Poll of potential voters nationwide showed that in a three-way general election, Democrat Hillary Clinton would lead with 44 percent of votes, former Gov. Jeb Bush (R) with 29 percent, and Trump as an independent with 20 percent.

In a two-way election with Bush, according to the poll, Clinton would have a 6-point lead — 49 percent to 43 percent.

The survey was conducted with live interviewers over the phone among almost 1,249 adults throughout the nation from July 22 to July 28. The margin of error was plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

Read more: http://talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/marist-poll-donald-trump-indpendent

[bluestateguy]

1. No more polls

We already had an election and Obama won.

[Fred Sanders]

3. Yes. And has a year and a half to GOVERN, which is what governments do after elections. Daily trolling is what

these polls are so far away from any election.

[SheilaT]

2. Anyone with half a brain knows that.

But if Trump decides to run as an Independent -- and I make no predictions whatsoever -- it will be because he delusionally believes he can win as an Independent. He's so used to buying whatever he wants, that he'll think he can buy the election. I would almost love to see it, except that during the Presidential debates he'd be up there on the stage with the two major party candidates, and oh what a circus that would be.

[JudyM]

6. If he runs as an independent he'd better hire some exceptionally good bodyguards. Nt

[davidpdx]

9. The size of his head makes him an easy target

[JudyM]

17. Ha! True dat.

[7962]

4. Under the heading of "No shit" nt

[PSPS]

5. The GOP doesn't have a chance either way.

I don't see the GOP taking the white house again in the foreseeable future.

[daybranch]

7. GOP does not have any 2015 chance for President

that is why the Corporatists, Banksters, and Billionaires are putting their money towards another friendly candidate and using their control over Main Stream Media to portray her as a progressive democrat. The republican candidates create an entertaining circus for the dictators of today to turn our attention away from the sins of the rich and hopefully make us miss who she works for. The Bible says you cannot serve two masters and if you serve the rich in their war on the poor then you are not serving Christ. Psssst, maybe you should listen yourself, Huckaby.

[calimary]

8. Do it, Donald! DO IT!!!

Pleeeeeeeeeeeze!!!!

[Reter]

10. I wonder what a 4-way race with Bernie would look like

Hmm...

[eggplant]

11. It's an interesting dilemma

If the Koch brothers push him out of the party, then he'll run as an independent and screw them. If they keep him, he'll screw them anyway.

Yay!

[mwooldri]

12. Run, Don... Run!!!! nt

[PATRICK]

13. Almost a classic pattern

And Trump has the independence to dictate to the GOP up to the point where he might get too bloodied somehow in the primaries to be viable anymore. If he knew the point of no return and didn't want to gamble on playing the hostile GOP game he would make his ultimatum, and either make his deal or blow away their chances with whatever his inevitable loss would gain him- possibly the makings of a new party of honest to God nutjobs. The GOP can't silence or destroy any of the demagoguing candidate types anymore. Think Teddy Roosevelt and Taft diividing the election to Wilson.

Even absent charisma the Dems would win. Better than that and it would be a landslide of sorts, but you can guess the last ditch GOP media meme would be to blame it ALL on Trump, forget about the Dem mandate.

[Fortinbras Armstrong]

14. Someone should mention to Trump Teddy Roosevelt's run for the Presidency in 1912.

Unless there are special circumstances, a third party does not work in the US -- see Duverger's Law for an explanation.

In 1912, the Republican establishment, which had never liked Theodore Roosevelt, made sure that William Howard Taft was nominated for a second term. Roosevelt ran as a on a third party ticket (the Progressive Party, AKA "the Bull Moose Party&quot because he didn't like Taft's policies. What he managed to do was split the Republican vote between himself and Taft, and thus the Democrat Woodrow Wilson was elected.

The last time a third party succeeded in getting the presidency was in 1860, when the Republican Abraham Lincoln was elected, basically because the Whigs had disintegrated over the expansion of slavery in the 1850s. Even then, the Republicans needed a split among the Democrats to win.

[eppur_se_muova]

15. I want The Donhole to get the nomination ...

After that, any 1st or 2nd runner-up would be a fool NOT to run independently, and for some it would be the only hope left in their careers ... it would split the Repug vote, and put a Dem in the WH for sure. Also set up the R party for reorganization and purge ...

I consider a Trump independent run somewhat more likely, especially since an independent run would open the possibility of his quitting before the election, which I think will happen when he gets bored with the whole thing.

[olddots]

18. he should run as an independant

and have Andrew Dice Clay be his V.P. choice .