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Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
Sun Oct 25, 2015, 02:30 PM Oct 2015

Clinton on top in Iowa, gains in New Hampshire

Source: CBS News






Read more: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/clinton-atop-iowa-gains-in-new-hampshire/



Sanders is well within the 4.8% margin of error in Iowa, and has a 15% lead in New Hampshire where Sanders has a majority of the support.

These are Clinton's worst numbers in Iowa in October and Sanders' best numbers in Iowa in October, and these are Sanders' best numbers in New Hampshire ever.

In this context, ask yourself -- who drafted this headline and why is this polling which is so strong for Sanders framed in such a manner: "Clinton on top in Iowa, gains in New Hampshire"?
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Clinton on top in Iowa, gains in New Hampshire (Original Post) Attorney in Texas Oct 2015 OP
Because she's on top in Iowa and gained in New Hampshire? 72DejaVu Oct 2015 #1
Not really. Clinton led in the WBUR and Boston Globe polls earlier this month and her poll average Attorney in Texas Oct 2015 #5
The proper comparison is to the change in the same poll 72DejaVu Oct 2015 #7
Again, not really. Biden was in the last poll and excluded from this one and Webb dropped out during Attorney in Texas Oct 2015 #10
Not only that, but O'Malley and Chafee votes should go to Bernie. Elmer S. E. Dump Oct 2015 #29
the last poll included Biden; this one doesn't. Biden's votes = a one-time bump. magical thyme Oct 2015 #9
These polls were done before the hearing.. Oct 15-22. DCBob Oct 2015 #19
I doubt it because people that are voting Bernie are doing so for ISSUES, not likeability. Elmer S. E. Dump Oct 2015 #30
The category about ... MrWendel Oct 2015 #2
People Are Being Told By The MSM & Talking Heads That Bernie Can't Win ..... global1 Oct 2015 #4
The fact that no one supports Clinton for her policies or her candor stands out, too. Her support is Attorney in Texas Oct 2015 #13
That will change the better Bernie does. People are being brainwashed by the MSM (corporatists). Elmer S. E. Dump Oct 2015 #31
some peculiar figures there! Doubledee Oct 2015 #3
Bernie leads in NH, and it's within the statistical margin of error in Iowa. totodeinhere Oct 2015 #6
Hillary Clinton Leading In 50 States. nt onehandle Oct 2015 #8
By what measure? Attorney in Texas Oct 2015 #11
I read the NH poll wrong. Last week she was leading there in two polls. onehandle Oct 2015 #15
We agree that Clinton is the favorite and Sanders is the underdog. Given that two recent polls put Attorney in Texas Oct 2015 #17
You do realize you could ALSO be fooling yourself. Elmer S. E. Dump Oct 2015 #32
By the measure of national polls... PosterChild Oct 2015 #16
Hillary's corporate sympathies sus453 Oct 2015 #12
another post that should be in General Discussion : Primaries, Not in LBN. still_one Oct 2015 #14
It is a poll sponsored by CBS news. It was featured on all of the major Sunday political news shows. Attorney in Texas Oct 2015 #18
This message was self-deleted by its author still_one Oct 2015 #20
Well fivethirtyeight.com rates it only a C+, so go with that. I still stand that this isn't still_one Oct 2015 #26
YouGov and CBS/YouGov don't follow the same methodology, which I linked. Are you allergic to links? Attorney in Texas Oct 2015 #27
Its a combination, and time will tell its validity. However, my main point was this isn't LBN, and still_one Oct 2015 #28
Bernie's on top in NH and they're tied in IA. Dishonest headline. Media bias. senz Oct 2015 #21
Saw the headline, and the last thing I expected was Sanders regaining the lead in NH and within the Attorney in Texas Oct 2015 #22
And now you know about the corporate media. senz Oct 2015 #23
fivethirtyeight only gives YouGov polster a C+ riversedge Oct 2015 #24
Clinton surges in early states; Carson levels with Trump in Iowa riversedge Oct 2015 #25
that's quite a headline, given the actual results. geek tragedy Oct 2015 #33

72DejaVu

(1,545 posts)
1. Because she's on top in Iowa and gained in New Hampshire?
Sun Oct 25, 2015, 02:36 PM
Oct 2015

Their last poll had her -22 in New Hampshire, now they have her -15.

I remember when you guys thought trajectory was the only thing that mattered.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
5. Not really. Clinton led in the WBUR and Boston Globe polls earlier this month and her poll average
Sun Oct 25, 2015, 02:46 PM
Oct 2015

briefly was higher than Sanders' poll average in New Hampshire. It is hard to interpret this poll as good news for Clinton as Sanders' 15% lead is the biggest lead he has shown in last 10 polls going back a month.

In Iowa, this ial also the closest poll in a month of Iowa polls (where Clinton recently polled a 21% lead). Again, it is tough to neutrally see this polling as good for Clinton.

Despite the fact that this polling is the worst-in-a-month for Clinton in BOTH Iowa and New Hampshire and best-in-a-month for Sanders in Iowa and -best-ever for Sanders in New Hampshire, the headline hardly seems to convey that message, don't you think?

72DejaVu

(1,545 posts)
7. The proper comparison is to the change in the same poll
Sun Oct 25, 2015, 02:51 PM
Oct 2015

Trends are what matters, and cross comparisons to other polls are always flawed.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
10. Again, not really. Biden was in the last poll and excluded from this one and Webb dropped out during
Sun Oct 25, 2015, 03:04 PM
Oct 2015

the polling period in this poll. Comparing this poll to the prior CBS poll is hardly apples-to-apples. The more salient fact is this is Clinton's worst battleground polling in a month and Sanders' best polling in a month in Iowa and best polling ever in New Hampshire. You shoudl ask yourself why you feel such a need to defend a clearly biased headline.

 

magical thyme

(14,881 posts)
9. the last poll included Biden; this one doesn't. Biden's votes = a one-time bump.
Sun Oct 25, 2015, 02:59 PM
Oct 2015

She also just had 9(?) hours of free campaign teevee advertorial courtesy of Gowdy-doody and Co.

So she's gone from 30 to39.
Bernie's gone from 52 to 54.
O'M went from 1 to 3.
Undecideds went from 8 to 3.

The MOE is 7.1. So the underlying trajectory is essentially unchanged.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
19. These polls were done before the hearing.. Oct 15-22.
Sun Oct 25, 2015, 04:46 PM
Oct 2015

I expect she will get a big boost in the next round of polls post hearing.

 

Elmer S. E. Dump

(5,751 posts)
30. I doubt it because people that are voting Bernie are doing so for ISSUES, not likeability.
Mon Oct 26, 2015, 09:15 AM
Oct 2015

Whereas some will change their votes with the wind, if you support Bernie, you probably are very aware of why, and that's not going to change just because Hillary has a decent showing at the hearings.

global1

(25,169 posts)
4. People Are Being Told By The MSM & Talking Heads That Bernie Can't Win .....
Sun Oct 25, 2015, 02:44 PM
Oct 2015

the GE - that's why we're seeing that in the poll numbers. I'll ask this again - if Bernie wins the nomination won't the Dem Party put all their muscle and money behind him to get the win? Bernie can win the GE - but the powers that be don't want him to even get that far - that's why they are telling The People he can't win.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
13. The fact that no one supports Clinton for her policies or her candor stands out, too. Her support is
Sun Oct 25, 2015, 03:25 PM
Oct 2015

apparently based mostly on her CV and her perceived electability in the general election.

That seems like why we picked Kerry in 2004 and why the Republicans picked McCain and Romney in 2008 and 2012?

Not a model that inspires confidence.

Clinton herself has described the primary process as "Democrats fall in love and Republicans fall in line." This polling seems a bid inconsistent with that notion.

Doubledee

(137 posts)
3. some peculiar figures there!
Sun Oct 25, 2015, 02:41 PM
Oct 2015

According to this poll none who actually support Sanders do so because number 1 they think he can win the general election. Does this then imply a ":principled but fatalistic electorate", or does it reflect on the poll itself?

Like Hillary Clinton or not she is a mainstream candidate who has never shown interest in changing the political system, at least not to my knowledge. Yet the poll implies otherwise. She may be characterized, whether true or not, as one who speaks to the people, though she seems to speak more for the financial community, but never as a game changer. That would be Sanders actually.

A suspect poll in my opinion.

totodeinhere

(13,037 posts)
6. Bernie leads in NH, and it's within the statistical margin of error in Iowa.
Sun Oct 25, 2015, 02:49 PM
Oct 2015

Considering the nonstop barrage of pro-Hillatry propaganda in the media, I think Bernie is doing well.

onehandle

(51,122 posts)
15. I read the NH poll wrong. Last week she was leading there in two polls.
Sun Oct 25, 2015, 03:48 PM
Oct 2015

Ultimately Senator Sanders may win NH and Hillary will win the nomination.

Anyone convincing themselves otherwise is fooling themselves.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
17. We agree that Clinton is the favorite and Sanders is the underdog. Given that two recent polls put
Sun Oct 25, 2015, 03:57 PM
Oct 2015

her on top in New Hampshire, and this poll puts Sanders on top by a healthy 15% margin, I was just pointing out that this headline is odd in how it trumpets this polling as great for Clinton when is as actually the worst polling she's seen in a month and the best polling Sanders has seen in New Hampshire.

 

Elmer S. E. Dump

(5,751 posts)
32. You do realize you could ALSO be fooling yourself.
Mon Oct 26, 2015, 03:35 PM
Oct 2015

We can all make predictions, but no one can know until nominee is named.

still_one

(91,965 posts)
14. another post that should be in General Discussion : Primaries, Not in LBN.
Sun Oct 25, 2015, 03:31 PM
Oct 2015

Also this was conducted by YouGov, which is an online pollster, and does not use conventional polling methods.

Whether it represents a real trend will be determined in the coming weeks, but anyone who touts any poll this early in the game is only deluding themselves since there is still quite a lot of noise go on in the volatility

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
18. It is a poll sponsored by CBS news. It was featured on all of the major Sunday political news shows.
Sun Oct 25, 2015, 04:05 PM
Oct 2015

It came out just this morning.

Are you disputing that it is news (because ABC, CBS, and NBC hold a contrary view)?

Are you disputing that it is breaking (because it just came out this morning)?

If you are disputing the methodology on grounds that it relies entirely on on-line polling, it seems you didn't research this methodology much:

YouGov also randomly selected persons from voter registration lists who had previously voted in primary elections and contacted them by phone. A total of 20,017 registered voters were contacted by phone and the YouGov sample includes 1,290 phone recruits.

Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #18)

still_one

(91,965 posts)
26. Well fivethirtyeight.com rates it only a C+, so go with that. I still stand that this isn't
Sun Oct 25, 2015, 08:57 PM
Oct 2015

LBN, and is just a way to discuss primary stuff outside the General Discussion : Primary forum

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/


still_one

(91,965 posts)
28. Its a combination, and time will tell its validity. However, my main point was this isn't LBN, and
Sun Oct 25, 2015, 10:38 PM
Oct 2015

the comments on this thread only prove my point that this is simply a primary discussion thread

 

senz

(11,945 posts)
21. Bernie's on top in NH and they're tied in IA. Dishonest headline. Media bias.
Sun Oct 25, 2015, 05:22 PM
Oct 2015

Does not look so good for Hillary, considering all the money she's spending.

But she does have name recognition.

The corporate media does not want Sanders to make the economy more fair for the American people.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
22. Saw the headline, and the last thing I expected was Sanders regaining the lead in NH and within the
Sun Oct 25, 2015, 05:53 PM
Oct 2015

margin of error on Iowa.

riversedge

(69,730 posts)
24. fivethirtyeight only gives YouGov polster a C+
Sun Oct 25, 2015, 06:55 PM
Oct 2015

fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/

YouGov gets only a C+


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html#polls

CBS/YouGov 10/15 - 10/22 499 LV 54 39 -- 3 0 0 Sanders +15
CBS News/YouGov 9/3 - 9/10 548 LV 52 30 9 1 0 0 Sanders +22



riversedge

(69,730 posts)
25. Clinton surges in early states; Carson levels with Trump in Iowa
Sun Oct 25, 2015, 07:00 PM
Oct 2015

I like this headline also about this poll.


Clinton surges in early states; Carson levels with Trump in Iowa

https://today.yougov.com/news/2015/10/25/clinton-surges-early-states-carson-levels-trump-io/

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