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Sun Oct 25, 2015, 02:30 PM

Clinton on top in Iowa, gains in New Hampshire

Source: CBS News






Read more: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/clinton-atop-iowa-gains-in-new-hampshire/



Sanders is well within the 4.8% margin of error in Iowa, and has a 15% lead in New Hampshire where Sanders has a majority of the support.

These are Clinton's worst numbers in Iowa in October and Sanders' best numbers in Iowa in October, and these are Sanders' best numbers in New Hampshire ever.

In this context, ask yourself -- who drafted this headline and why is this polling which is so strong for Sanders framed in such a manner: "Clinton on top in Iowa, gains in New Hampshire"?

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Reply Clinton on top in Iowa, gains in New Hampshire (Original post)
Attorney in Texas Oct 2015 OP
72DejaVu Oct 2015 #1
Attorney in Texas Oct 2015 #5
72DejaVu Oct 2015 #7
Attorney in Texas Oct 2015 #10
Elmer S. E. Dump Oct 2015 #29
magical thyme Oct 2015 #9
DCBob Oct 2015 #19
Elmer S. E. Dump Oct 2015 #30
MrWendel Oct 2015 #2
global1 Oct 2015 #4
Attorney in Texas Oct 2015 #13
Elmer S. E. Dump Oct 2015 #31
Doubledee Oct 2015 #3
totodeinhere Oct 2015 #6
onehandle Oct 2015 #8
Attorney in Texas Oct 2015 #11
onehandle Oct 2015 #15
Attorney in Texas Oct 2015 #17
Elmer S. E. Dump Oct 2015 #32
PosterChild Oct 2015 #16
sus453 Oct 2015 #12
still_one Oct 2015 #14
Attorney in Texas Oct 2015 #18
still_one Oct 2015 #20
still_one Oct 2015 #26
Attorney in Texas Oct 2015 #27
still_one Oct 2015 #28
senz Oct 2015 #21
Attorney in Texas Oct 2015 #22
senz Oct 2015 #23
riversedge Oct 2015 #24
riversedge Oct 2015 #25
geek tragedy Oct 2015 #33

Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2015, 02:36 PM

1. Because she's on top in Iowa and gained in New Hampshire?

Their last poll had her -22 in New Hampshire, now they have her -15.

I remember when you guys thought trajectory was the only thing that mattered.

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Response to 72DejaVu (Reply #1)

Sun Oct 25, 2015, 02:46 PM

5. Not really. Clinton led in the WBUR and Boston Globe polls earlier this month and her poll average

briefly was higher than Sanders' poll average in New Hampshire. It is hard to interpret this poll as good news for Clinton as Sanders' 15% lead is the biggest lead he has shown in last 10 polls going back a month.

In Iowa, this ial also the closest poll in a month of Iowa polls (where Clinton recently polled a 21% lead). Again, it is tough to neutrally see this polling as good for Clinton.

Despite the fact that this polling is the worst-in-a-month for Clinton in BOTH Iowa and New Hampshire and best-in-a-month for Sanders in Iowa and -best-ever for Sanders in New Hampshire, the headline hardly seems to convey that message, don't you think?

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #5)

Sun Oct 25, 2015, 02:51 PM

7. The proper comparison is to the change in the same poll

Trends are what matters, and cross comparisons to other polls are always flawed.

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Response to 72DejaVu (Reply #7)

Sun Oct 25, 2015, 03:04 PM

10. Again, not really. Biden was in the last poll and excluded from this one and Webb dropped out during

the polling period in this poll. Comparing this poll to the prior CBS poll is hardly apples-to-apples. The more salient fact is this is Clinton's worst battleground polling in a month and Sanders' best polling in a month in Iowa and best polling ever in New Hampshire. You shoudl ask yourself why you feel such a need to defend a clearly biased headline.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #5)

Mon Oct 26, 2015, 09:13 AM

29. Not only that, but O'Malley and Chafee votes should go to Bernie.

 

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Response to 72DejaVu (Reply #1)

Sun Oct 25, 2015, 02:59 PM

9. the last poll included Biden; this one doesn't. Biden's votes = a one-time bump.

 

She also just had 9(?) hours of free campaign teevee advertorial courtesy of Gowdy-doody and Co.

So she's gone from 30 to39.
Bernie's gone from 52 to 54.
O'M went from 1 to 3.
Undecideds went from 8 to 3.

The MOE is 7.1. So the underlying trajectory is essentially unchanged.

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Response to magical thyme (Reply #9)

Sun Oct 25, 2015, 04:46 PM

19. These polls were done before the hearing.. Oct 15-22.

I expect she will get a big boost in the next round of polls post hearing.

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Response to DCBob (Reply #19)

Mon Oct 26, 2015, 09:15 AM

30. I doubt it because people that are voting Bernie are doing so for ISSUES, not likeability.

 

Whereas some will change their votes with the wind, if you support Bernie, you probably are very aware of why, and that's not going to change just because Hillary has a decent showing at the hearings.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2015, 02:37 PM

2. The category about ...

Wining a General Election stands out allot.

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Response to MrWendel (Reply #2)

Sun Oct 25, 2015, 02:44 PM

4. People Are Being Told By The MSM & Talking Heads That Bernie Can't Win .....

the GE - that's why we're seeing that in the poll numbers. I'll ask this again - if Bernie wins the nomination won't the Dem Party put all their muscle and money behind him to get the win? Bernie can win the GE - but the powers that be don't want him to even get that far - that's why they are telling The People he can't win.

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Response to MrWendel (Reply #2)

Sun Oct 25, 2015, 03:25 PM

13. The fact that no one supports Clinton for her policies or her candor stands out, too. Her support is

apparently based mostly on her CV and her perceived electability in the general election.

That seems like why we picked Kerry in 2004 and why the Republicans picked McCain and Romney in 2008 and 2012?

Not a model that inspires confidence.

Clinton herself has described the primary process as "Democrats fall in love and Republicans fall in line." This polling seems a bid inconsistent with that notion.

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Response to MrWendel (Reply #2)

Mon Oct 26, 2015, 09:17 AM

31. That will change the better Bernie does. People are being brainwashed by the MSM (corporatists).

 

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2015, 02:41 PM

3. some peculiar figures there!

According to this poll none who actually support Sanders do so because number 1 they think he can win the general election. Does this then imply a ":principled but fatalistic electorate", or does it reflect on the poll itself?

Like Hillary Clinton or not she is a mainstream candidate who has never shown interest in changing the political system, at least not to my knowledge. Yet the poll implies otherwise. She may be characterized, whether true or not, as one who speaks to the people, though she seems to speak more for the financial community, but never as a game changer. That would be Sanders actually.

A suspect poll in my opinion.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2015, 02:49 PM

6. Bernie leads in NH, and it's within the statistical margin of error in Iowa.

Considering the nonstop barrage of pro-Hillatry propaganda in the media, I think Bernie is doing well.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2015, 02:55 PM

8. Hillary Clinton Leading In 50 States. nt

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Response to onehandle (Reply #8)

Sun Oct 25, 2015, 03:06 PM

11. By what measure?

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #11)

Sun Oct 25, 2015, 03:48 PM

15. I read the NH poll wrong. Last week she was leading there in two polls.

Ultimately Senator Sanders may win NH and Hillary will win the nomination.

Anyone convincing themselves otherwise is fooling themselves.

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Response to onehandle (Reply #15)

Sun Oct 25, 2015, 03:57 PM

17. We agree that Clinton is the favorite and Sanders is the underdog. Given that two recent polls put

her on top in New Hampshire, and this poll puts Sanders on top by a healthy 15% margin, I was just pointing out that this headline is odd in how it trumpets this polling as great for Clinton when is as actually the worst polling she's seen in a month and the best polling Sanders has seen in New Hampshire.

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Response to onehandle (Reply #15)

Mon Oct 26, 2015, 03:35 PM

32. You do realize you could ALSO be fooling yourself.

 

We can all make predictions, but no one can know until nominee is named.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2015, 03:20 PM

12. Hillary's corporate sympathies

are, like the misinformation prompting the Iraq War, not hidden for those who want to look:

http://www.truthdig.com/avbooth/item/video_hillary_clinton_in_1990_im_proud_of_walmart_20150525

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2015, 03:31 PM

14. another post that should be in General Discussion : Primaries, Not in LBN.

Also this was conducted by YouGov, which is an online pollster, and does not use conventional polling methods.

Whether it represents a real trend will be determined in the coming weeks, but anyone who touts any poll this early in the game is only deluding themselves since there is still quite a lot of noise go on in the volatility

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Response to still_one (Reply #14)

Sun Oct 25, 2015, 04:05 PM

18. It is a poll sponsored by CBS news. It was featured on all of the major Sunday political news shows.

It came out just this morning.

Are you disputing that it is news (because ABC, CBS, and NBC hold a contrary view)?

Are you disputing that it is breaking (because it just came out this morning)?

If you are disputing the methodology on grounds that it relies entirely on on-line polling, it seems you didn't research this methodology much:

YouGov also randomly selected persons from voter registration lists who had previously voted in primary elections and contacted them by phone. A total of 20,017 registered voters were contacted by phone and the YouGov sample includes 1,290 phone recruits.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #18)


Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #18)

Sun Oct 25, 2015, 08:57 PM

26. Well fivethirtyeight.com rates it only a C+, so go with that. I still stand that this isn't

LBN, and is just a way to discuss primary stuff outside the General Discussion : Primary forum

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/


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Response to still_one (Reply #26)

Sun Oct 25, 2015, 10:17 PM

27. YouGov and CBS/YouGov don't follow the same methodology, which I linked. Are you allergic to links?

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #27)

Sun Oct 25, 2015, 10:38 PM

28. Its a combination, and time will tell its validity. However, my main point was this isn't LBN, and

the comments on this thread only prove my point that this is simply a primary discussion thread

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2015, 05:22 PM

21. Bernie's on top in NH and they're tied in IA. Dishonest headline. Media bias.

 

Does not look so good for Hillary, considering all the money she's spending.

But she does have name recognition.

The corporate media does not want Sanders to make the economy more fair for the American people.

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Response to senz (Reply #21)

Sun Oct 25, 2015, 05:53 PM

22. Saw the headline, and the last thing I expected was Sanders regaining the lead in NH and within the

margin of error on Iowa.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #22)

Sun Oct 25, 2015, 06:08 PM

23. And now you know about the corporate media.

 

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2015, 06:55 PM

24. fivethirtyeight only gives YouGov polster a C+

fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/

YouGov gets only a C+


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html#polls

CBS/YouGov 10/15 - 10/22 499 LV 54 39 -- 3 0 0 Sanders +15
CBS News/YouGov 9/3 - 9/10 548 LV 52 30 9 1 0 0 Sanders +22



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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Oct 25, 2015, 07:00 PM

25. Clinton surges in early states; Carson levels with Trump in Iowa

I like this headline also about this poll.


Clinton surges in early states; Carson levels with Trump in Iowa

https://today.yougov.com/news/2015/10/25/clinton-surges-early-states-carson-levels-trump-io/

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Oct 26, 2015, 03:39 PM

33. that's quite a headline, given the actual results.

 

Sanders WAY ahead in NH, Clinton barely ahead in Iowa.

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