Clinton on top in Iowa, gains in New Hampshire
Source: CBS News
Read more: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/clinton-atop-iowa-gains-in-new-hampshire/
Sanders is well within the 4.8% margin of error in Iowa, and has a 15% lead in New Hampshire where Sanders has a majority of the support.
These are Clinton's worst numbers in Iowa in October and Sanders' best numbers in Iowa in October, and these are Sanders' best numbers in New Hampshire ever.
In this context, ask yourself -- who drafted this headline and why is this polling which is so strong for Sanders framed in such a manner: "Clinton on top in Iowa, gains in New Hampshire"?
72DejaVu
(1,545 posts)Their last poll had her -22 in New Hampshire, now they have her -15.
I remember when you guys thought trajectory was the only thing that mattered.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)briefly was higher than Sanders' poll average in New Hampshire. It is hard to interpret this poll as good news for Clinton as Sanders' 15% lead is the biggest lead he has shown in last 10 polls going back a month.
In Iowa, this ial also the closest poll in a month of Iowa polls (where Clinton recently polled a 21% lead). Again, it is tough to neutrally see this polling as good for Clinton.
Despite the fact that this polling is the worst-in-a-month for Clinton in BOTH Iowa and New Hampshire and best-in-a-month for Sanders in Iowa and -best-ever for Sanders in New Hampshire, the headline hardly seems to convey that message, don't you think?
72DejaVu
(1,545 posts)Trends are what matters, and cross comparisons to other polls are always flawed.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)the polling period in this poll. Comparing this poll to the prior CBS poll is hardly apples-to-apples. The more salient fact is this is Clinton's worst battleground polling in a month and Sanders' best polling in a month in Iowa and best polling ever in New Hampshire. You shoudl ask yourself why you feel such a need to defend a clearly biased headline.
Elmer S. E. Dump
(5,751 posts)magical thyme
(14,881 posts)She also just had 9(?) hours of free campaign teevee advertorial courtesy of Gowdy-doody and Co.
So she's gone from 30 to39.
Bernie's gone from 52 to 54.
O'M went from 1 to 3.
Undecideds went from 8 to 3.
The MOE is 7.1. So the underlying trajectory is essentially unchanged.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I expect she will get a big boost in the next round of polls post hearing.
Elmer S. E. Dump
(5,751 posts)Whereas some will change their votes with the wind, if you support Bernie, you probably are very aware of why, and that's not going to change just because Hillary has a decent showing at the hearings.
MrWendel
(1,881 posts)Wining a General Election stands out allot.
global1
(25,169 posts)the GE - that's why we're seeing that in the poll numbers. I'll ask this again - if Bernie wins the nomination won't the Dem Party put all their muscle and money behind him to get the win? Bernie can win the GE - but the powers that be don't want him to even get that far - that's why they are telling The People he can't win.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)apparently based mostly on her CV and her perceived electability in the general election.
That seems like why we picked Kerry in 2004 and why the Republicans picked McCain and Romney in 2008 and 2012?
Not a model that inspires confidence.
Clinton herself has described the primary process as "Democrats fall in love and Republicans fall in line." This polling seems a bid inconsistent with that notion.
Elmer S. E. Dump
(5,751 posts)Doubledee
(137 posts)According to this poll none who actually support Sanders do so because number 1 they think he can win the general election. Does this then imply a ":principled but fatalistic electorate", or does it reflect on the poll itself?
Like Hillary Clinton or not she is a mainstream candidate who has never shown interest in changing the political system, at least not to my knowledge. Yet the poll implies otherwise. She may be characterized, whether true or not, as one who speaks to the people, though she seems to speak more for the financial community, but never as a game changer. That would be Sanders actually.
A suspect poll in my opinion.
totodeinhere
(13,037 posts)Considering the nonstop barrage of pro-Hillatry propaganda in the media, I think Bernie is doing well.
onehandle
(51,122 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)onehandle
(51,122 posts)Ultimately Senator Sanders may win NH and Hillary will win the nomination.
Anyone convincing themselves otherwise is fooling themselves.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)her on top in New Hampshire, and this poll puts Sanders on top by a healthy 15% margin, I was just pointing out that this headline is odd in how it trumpets this polling as great for Clinton when is as actually the worst polling she's seen in a month and the best polling Sanders has seen in New Hampshire.
Elmer S. E. Dump
(5,751 posts)We can all make predictions, but no one can know until nominee is named.
PosterChild
(1,307 posts)sus453
(164 posts)are, like the misinformation prompting the Iraq War, not hidden for those who want to look:
http://www.truthdig.com/avbooth/item/video_hillary_clinton_in_1990_im_proud_of_walmart_20150525
still_one
(91,965 posts)Also this was conducted by YouGov, which is an online pollster, and does not use conventional polling methods.
Whether it represents a real trend will be determined in the coming weeks, but anyone who touts any poll this early in the game is only deluding themselves since there is still quite a lot of noise go on in the volatility
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)It came out just this morning.
Are you disputing that it is news (because ABC, CBS, and NBC hold a contrary view)?
Are you disputing that it is breaking (because it just came out this morning)?
If you are disputing the methodology on grounds that it relies entirely on on-line polling, it seems you didn't research this methodology much:
YouGov also randomly selected persons from voter registration lists who had previously voted in primary elections and contacted them by phone. A total of 20,017 registered voters were contacted by phone and the YouGov sample includes 1,290 phone recruits.
Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #18)
still_one This message was self-deleted by its author.
still_one
(91,965 posts)LBN, and is just a way to discuss primary stuff outside the General Discussion : Primary forum
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)still_one
(91,965 posts)the comments on this thread only prove my point that this is simply a primary discussion thread
senz
(11,945 posts)Does not look so good for Hillary, considering all the money she's spending.
But she does have name recognition.
The corporate media does not want Sanders to make the economy more fair for the American people.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)margin of error on Iowa.
senz
(11,945 posts)riversedge
(69,730 posts)fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/
YouGov gets only a C+
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html#polls
CBS/YouGov 10/15 - 10/22 499 LV 54 39 -- 3 0 0 Sanders +15
CBS News/YouGov 9/3 - 9/10 548 LV 52 30 9 1 0 0 Sanders +22
riversedge
(69,730 posts)I like this headline also about this poll.
Clinton surges in early states; Carson levels with Trump in Iowa
https://today.yougov.com/news/2015/10/25/clinton-surges-early-states-carson-levels-trump-io/
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Sanders WAY ahead in NH, Clinton barely ahead in Iowa.