Spanish election: Conservatives win but fall short of majority, exit polls show

[muriel_volestrangler]

Source: The Guardian

OK. With more than 75% of the vote counted, this is the picture:

Partido Popular: 123

PSOE (Socialists): 93

Podemos: 68

Ciudadanos: 37

Once again, the overall majority threshold is 176. A bit of mental arithmetic shows just how unpredictable this all could be ...

Read more: http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/dec/20/spain-election-results-live-updates-podemos-ciudadanos

---

The exit poll has Podemos in 2nd place - see http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141293475

The figures are the projected seats - there a re small parties taking the remaining ones, which mean that a simple PP/Ciudadanos or Socialist/Podemos coalition can't get a majority.

[iandhr]

1. Does this mean a "unity government?"

[Spitfire of ATJ]

2. If by that you mean everybody united in giving Conservatives the raspberry.

[Judi Lynn]

3. Spain ruling party could be out with big vote for upstarts

Spain ruling party could be out with big vote for upstarts
Published: December 21, 2015

MADRID (AP) — A strong showing Sunday by a pair of upstart parties in Spain's general election upended the country's traditional two-party system, with the ruling Popular Party winning the most votes but falling far short of a parliamentary majority and at risk of being booted from power.

Days or weeks of negotiations will be needed to determine who will govern Spain, with the new far-left Podemos and business-friendly Ciudadanos parties producing shockwaves because of strong support from voters weary of high unemployment, a seemingly endless string of official corruption cases and disgust over the country's political status quo.

If forced out of government, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and his Popular Party would become the third European victims this year of a voter backlash against austerity — following elections in Greece and Portugal seen as ballot box rebellions against unpopular tax hikes and spending cuts invoked during the eurozone's debt crisis.

In past Spanish elections, the Popular Party and the main opposition Socialists were the established powerhouses and only needed support from tiny parties to get a majority in parliament when they didn't win one from voters.

More:
http://www.tbo.com/ap/world/spain-ruling-party-could-be-out-with-big-vote-for-upstarts-ap_world_economic_crisisdd4a03b17b5d43e8aa27ee71a5ef3878

[Ghost Dog]

4. Spanish election: national newcomers end era of two-party dominance

Last edited Mon Dec 21, 2015, 05:37 AM - Edit history (2)

Spanish politicians are gearing up for what could be weeks of complicated negotiations after Sunday’s general election yielded a deeply fragmented parliament, with the conservative People’s party losing ground to national newcomers Podemos and Ciudadanos.

The PP won 123 seats in the election, with 29% of the vote, leaving them far from a majority in the 350-seat legislature. Led by Mariano Rajoy, the current prime minister, the party has limited possibilities when it comes to the alliances it now needs to form a stable government majority.

The Socialists, who asserted their place as the traditional rival of the conservatives throughout the campaign, came second, with 90 seats and 22% of the vote. With many in Spain still suffering the lingering effects of an economic crisis that sent unemployment rates soaring and triggered painful austerity measures, millions of voters turned away from the PP and Socialists, who have alternated in power for decades, and instead looked to emerging parties.

Anti-austerity Podemos, which was formed in the aftermath of protests following Spain’s financial crisis, finished in third place with 69 seats and 21% of the vote, while the centre-right Ciudadanos won 40 seats and 14% of the vote. “Spain is not going to be the same anymore and we are very happy,” Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias said on Sunday. The PP and Socialists won a combined vote share of about 50%, compared with the 70-80% of past general elections.

Podemos did remarkably well across the country, placing first in Catalonia – where it ran in a coalition with Barcelona en Comú – and the Basque country, a result that suggested widespread support for its campaign promise to hold a referendum on Catalan independence. “Today is a historical day for Spain,” Iglesias told supporters on Sunday night. “Every time there is an election, the forces of change advance.” ...

/... http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/20/peoples-party-wins-spanish-election-absolute-majority

/... http://www.lavanguardia.com/

So, coalition politics, inevitably, with a PP-PSOE 'stability pact' possible, also a coalition of the left not impossible, including regional 'nationalist' independently-minded parties of the left. A coalition on the right with an overall majority appears to be impossible. Spanish politics has become "Italianised", it is being said, a not entirely welcome prospect for many... (Spain tolerates but mostly ignores any comparison betweeen itself & Italy). New elections soon are also a possibility. Also, note the very fast manual count of paper ballots...

PODEMOS did very well, better than polls anticipated, and are the true big winners here.

¡VAMOS, PODEMOS!

edit:


/... http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/dec/21/spanish-poll-uncertainty-unsettles-markets-as-oil-hits-11-year-low-live

[Proserpina]

5. Should Catalonia win Independent Nation status

wouldn't that put the conservatives back in power? After all, a large chunk of Podemos will simply walk away, free of Spanish domination, but leaving the rest of its party in the lurch...

...on the other hand, should the new parties do a good job of reorienting Spain, independence might not be as attractive, anymore. After all, there's a lot of initial pain and expense and infrastructure building involved...

which future looks more probable?

[muriel_volestrangler]

6. Spain Socialists reject Rajoy or PP-led government

Spanish Socialist leader Pedro Sanchez has said he will not support a government led by acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy or his conservative Popular Party (PP).

After a brief meeting with the prime minister, Mr Sanchez insisted Spain needed a change of government.

"No to Rajoy means yes to change," he said, adding that he did not want fresh elections.
...
There is speculation that a left-wing coalition government could be formed - along the lines of neighbouring Portugal. But there are serious divisions between the PSOE and Podemos - and together they would still be short of a majority. They might have to woo small leftist parties in the Basque Country and Catalonia.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35167783