Poll: (Sanders / Clinton) Neck-And-Neck 2016 Races in Iowa, New Hampshire

[Hissyspit]

Source: NBC News

Three weeks until the first presidential nominating contest, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are running neck and neck in Iowa, while Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are also locked in a tight race in the Hawkeye State.

What's more, Clinton and Sanders are within the margin of error in New Hampshire, while Trump has built a 16-point lead in the same state.

Those are the results of two brand-new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls - the first NBC/WSJ/Marist early-state surveys of 2016, which for the first time measure likely voters.

- snip -

On the Democratic side, frontrunner Hillary Clinton holds just a three-point lead among likely voters over Bernie Sanders, 48 percent to 45 percent, while Martin O'Malley gets 5 percent.

But among potential Democratic caucus-goers, Clinton's advantage grows to six points, 49 percent to 43 percent. (In October, Clinton's lead here was 11 points, 47 percent to 36 percent.)

Read more: http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/poll-neck-neck-2016-races-iowa-new-hampshire-n493361

[orpupilofnature57]

1. Except Bernie Earned it !!!

[yeoman6987]

28. This is what the media desired

And they are making it that way. More eyeballs that way. Voting will bring reality to the situation.

[enid602]

31. information

It's amazing what campaign officials can do (at least temporarily) when they have the right information. So to speak.

[iandhr]

2. My prediction

HRC wins Iowa. Sanders wins NH.

[FloridaBlues]

4. Bernie was ahead 11 points in some polls but seems to have lost ground

He lost ground past month which surprises me.
She will eek out a NH win

[ChiTownDenny]

27. The Big Dog went to NH.

n/t

[EdwardBernays]

3. This is ALL going to come down to

Turn out.

If Sanders can mobilise his support he's gonna win IA and NH.

[Dawgs]

7. Turnout will not be a problem for Bernie.

Not so sure about the 'meh' candidate.

[EdwardBernays]

8. we live in hope

The youth are not none for getting to the polls...

[CoffeeCat]

9. Thats not true

They turned out in droves for Obama. Furthermore, the young people who voted for Obama in 08 were looking for someone other than Clinton. They're older now and they are experienced caucus goers who are likely to caucus again.

Bernie Sanders supporters in Iowa are highly motivated. They know what's at stake. And they're turning out heavily for his political events. More than 2000 people at each event. They're also heavily involved in his campaign/ground game.

Hillary struggles to get a few hundred at her Iowa events.

Her support is eroding in Iowa as her "inevitability meme" crumbles. People are realizing that Sanders is a viable contender, and that phenomena is only growing. Polls like this and his campaign in Iowa will further increase his support.

It's going to be tight in Iowa.

With only 23 days to go, Bernie is in great shape. He began with .8 percent in Iowa and has built a very strong campaign.

[EdwardBernays]

12. I hope so

I really really hope you're right... he has my money and support, but... I hope this all plays out the way we both want it to...

[Cal33]

36. Count me in on your side. :)

[questionseverything]

29. your reporting and posts have been a lifeline to sanity...thank you

[Betty Karlson]

5. Marist and WSJ - probably padded in favour of Clinton? eom

[JonLeibowitz]

14. I doubt that, but here's the problem I have and it comes down to how they wrote the story

When Sanders leads Clinton in NH, they say:

In the Democratic race, Sanders is ahead of Clinton by four points among likely primary voters, 50 percent to 46 percent, which is within the margin of error of plus-minus 4.8 percentage points. O'Malley is at 1 percent.

and for Iowa:

On the Democratic side, frontrunner Hillary Clinton holds just a three-point lead among likely voters over Bernie Sanders, 48 percent to 45 percent, while Martin O'Malley gets 5 percent.

What is that but clear bias -- listing that one is leading within the margin while not mentioning the same statistic in the other case when it certainly applies.

This is what gets people fed up with the M$M, because if you're paying attention it is so very obvious.

[karynnj]

23. Good catch -- not to mention, Sanders may get well over half the O'Malley people in Iowa

I have only seen a NH poll on second choices, but if the same holds true in Iowa, the O'Malley people who are unlikely to get to the 15% threshold in most (or even all) the districts will then go for second choices.

As to the "likely caucus goers" being more in HRC's favor, I would remind people that this is why Obama's results were pretty badly underestimated in 2008. Most of the algorithms for likely caucus goer depend on both past attendance and their stated likelihood of going. This will understate the young people who are motivated by Sanders.

(Because the selection is public, I really want to watch this on CSPAN , if they carry it. (I turned it on in 2004 thinking it would be interesting for a few minutes and watched it for hours. It was fascinating.) This year you wonder if there might be some intimidation to vote for Clinton -- arguing that Sanders is not a Democrat. )

[bowens43]

6. extremely bad news for hillary. 2008 all over again.

[appalachiablue]

10. GOTV. K & R

[CoffeeCat]

11. Further details of this poll; bad news for Hillary Clinton

Holy Crap!

In Iowa:

--Cruz beat Clinton by four points (47 percent to 43 percent); Sanders beats him by five (47 percent to 42 percent);

--Rubio beats Clinton by 12 points (52 percent to 40 percent); Sanders leads him by nine points (50 percent to 41 percent).

--Clinton leads Trump by eight points among registered voters (48 percent to 40 percent); Sanders is ahead of him by 13 (51 percent to 38 percent).

I knew I sensed desperation and a subdued mood when I saw Clinton in Des Moines.

The Clinton camp must be reeling!

[GoneOffShore]

13. We can only hope.

Perhaps she will begin to understand that she's not "the anointed one" that she's always thought she was.

Of course for those of us who saw her for what she was when she was First Lady....... perhaps she will finally give it a rest.

[CoffeeCat]

17. When I attended her rally in Iowa,

she seemed subdued and humbled. It was obvious.

Their internals are telling them the same thing that the recently released polls are revealing.

She's known, for a while, that they are losing Iowa support.

[GoneOffShore]

19. In my opinion that's a good thing.

She's not the best choice because I fear that more people will come out to vote against her than to vote for the Republican candidate.

[thereismore]

25. Thanks for that report. Perhaps her own enthusiasm is waning. nt

[winter is coming]

26. Not the sort of polls I'd want coming out a week before a debate, if I were HRC. n/t

[lovuian]

15. I predicted this would happen

Bernie and Hillary neck and neck down to the wire

[brentspeak]

16. Get ready for HRC's campaign to go all-out kitchen-sink Joe McCarthy on Bernie

After Hillary's PR flunkies get done with their smears, Bernie will be portrayed as not just a left wing Marxist, but also as a right wing racist and misogynist and gun lover. He'll be "too dangerous to have in the White House!", and yet "too unelectable to defeat a Republican in a General Election!"

[AzDar]

18. ^ This.

Just remember how *horribly* she turned on BO in '08...truly shocked me.

[CoffeeCat]

20. Bernie supporters should be prepare for a Clinton shitstorm

I totally agree with your assessment. If people thought the primary season has been crazy, vitriolic and divisive--it's nothing compared to the hellfire that is coming.

We know what Hillary does when she's having trouble. She gets Rovian. I've seen in here in Iowa with Obama. No action is too low, no lie is too outrageous.

And she'll most likely engage surrogates to carry some pretty vile, awful messages.

The good news is that in Iowa, people don't like this. We are trying to make up our mind about who is best to represent our Democratic party. We take our first-in-the-nation vote very seriously. Many Iowans have only recently started to tune in. If Hillary emerges as a vicious attack dog who calls names and treats Bernie unfairly, this will backfire, I guarantee it. It backfired in 08.

Furthermore, Bernie is a ruthless campaigner; a smart campaigner. He will fight back with everything he has, and I'm sure he's anticipating Hillary's moves and he'll have a few tricks up his sleeve. Obama did not fight back against her as hard as he should have, in my opinion. And still, he deflected her crap. She tends to be her own worst enemy in these situations, failing to realize that people see that she is behaving out of desperation and vulnerability. This only makes her look weak, further decimating her "I'm inevitable" meme.

And at this point, she's staring down the barrel of a possible Iowa loss for the second time.

Gird your loins people. Expect Clinton to go nuclear.

[Left Coast2020]

21. Hillary supposedly had a 10-12 lead in Iowa in November

So this only shows that Bernie has amazingly built a bigger army there in the course of a month and a half. And you have to remember, as I have said before, Iowa voters like to, using the car buying analogy, "kick the tires" of political candidates. Iowa voters can smell insincerity in a candidate. And Bernie holds a lead among voters in the sincerity department. Just the fact he has gained significant ground in Iowa since November shows he has momentum.

[retrowire]

22. lol neck in neck my ass.

Dear Media,

You had a close race when Bernie entered the race months ago.

You had an edge of your seat fight, in the beginning, just when you kept ignoring it and waiting for Biden to jump in.

Neck in neck? We're already past that.

Bernie's been in the lead for months. Twisting your polls and ignoring that doesn't make it fact.

While I'm happy you're finally admitting to yourself that you have to take Bernie seriously, I can't really pat you on the back for being so slow to catch up.

So, you can act surprised when Bernie takes Iowa and New Hampshire, and I'm sure a lot of other people who trusted you as their only source will be surprised as well.

But yeah. Try to keep up. We know what you're doing.

Sincerely,
The People.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

32. Hillary's support is on a downturn in Iowa

[fbc]

24. So, with Clinton Iowa is a red state, with Sanders it's a blue state

got it!

[demwing]

30. What a nice cap to the weekend!

Tight polls favor Bernie, as he'll deliver the turnout. Hillary? Not so much...

[markj757]

33. Bernie reminds me.....

I don't know if he can win, but I will tell you all this. Bernie Sanders reminds me of why I love this country with all my heart. And maybe, just maybe, as someone who is leaning to vote for Hillary as a vote to stop someone like Trump, I instead can cast my vote for someone that I truly believe in.

[SansACause]

34. Hillary wins easily.

Hillary has the demographics to win big. I'd be surprised if Sanders' campaign makes it though February.

[markj757]

35. You have no idea what your talking about....

I see you have no idea what your talking about. Bernie Sanders is extremely well funded, raising almost as much money as Hillary. Under what circumstance would he not last through February???