Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders hold solid leads in Iowa, CNN/ORC poll finds

[shawn703]

Source: CNN

Washington (CNN)Donald Trump holds a commanding lead in Iowa as Sen. Bernie Sanders takes control of the Democratic race in the critical first-in-the-nation voting state, according to a new CNN/ORC poll released Thursday.

Trump leads Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, who is in second place in the GOP race, among likely Republican caucus-goers, 37% to 26%. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Florida, is in third at 14%, the only other Republican in double digits. Ben Carson failed to register half of Rubio's support and is in fourth place at 6%.

Sanders, meanwhile, has opened up an eight-point lead over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, leading her in Iowa 51% to 43% among likely Democratic presidential caucus-goers.

The sampling is key for both leaders: Only including voters who previously caucused in their party's most recent competitive caucus, Cruz is neck-and-neck with Trump, with 30% for Cruz to 28% for Trump. Rubio is steady at 16% in that sample.

Read more: http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/21/politics/iowa-poll-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-donald-trump-ted-cruz/index.html

[AzDar]

1. Bernie!!

[Dawson Leery]

2. Emerson and Monmouth have her leading by 9.

[pangaia]

4. PANGAIA Polling Services has Bernie by 23.

[Attorney in Texas]

12. CNN is a live poll; Gravis and KBUR/Monmouth polling uses the controversial robo-call polling method

that has a huge in-house pro-Trump and pro-Clinton effect (I have not seen a convincing explanation for this, but the effect is well documented).

This explains why you see CNN polling that shows Sanders leads in Iowa and New Hampshire with contemporaneous polls from Gravis and Monmouth that show Clinton ahead in Iowa and a tighter race in New Hampshire.

If you do nothing other than exclude robo-call polls from the Pollster aggregator, Sanders is ahead in Iowa and Sanders is comfortably up by double-digits in New Hampshire:





It does Clinton no favors to set her expectations in Iowa based on robo-call polls because, historically, falling short of expectations is almost worse than losing in Iowa.

[retrowire]

3. Yaaay! AND

BOOOO lol

[Robbins]

5. Well

the attacks make sense now.bernie has opened 8 point lead over clinton

[Thenewire]

6. Very similar candidates

Who knowingly mislead their supporters with grand and unrealistic ideology.

[stillwaiting]

7. You are foul. nt

[tabasco]

15. Please share you ideas....

and expound on this "grand and unrealistic ideology."

LMAO.

[SheenaR]

8. Long time lurker

Getting tired of it all.. But just wanted to share...

Monmouth COLLEGE and Emerson College have a grand total of 3 polls ever to their names as recorded by Project FiveThirtyEight. So keep touting those. Meanwhile CNN/ORC received an A- rating for their work and accuracy

[link:http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/|

[mainer]

9. One minute Sanders is in the lead. Next minute Hillary's in the lead.

I just don't trust what any poll says now.

And has that new Bernie TV ad run in Iowa yet? Have we seen post-ad polls?

[hoosierlib]

10. Sampling methodology...

The projected size and composition of the electorate are the main differences between the polls. The Monmouth / KBUR poll assumes more older voters and lower overall outcome than the CNN poll. Who is right? No way to know, but it's probably somewhere in the middle (i.e. a tie)...

[Odin2005]

11. Impossible, the Shillarians told us that Bernie is un-electable!!!

[tabasco]

16. Grow up.... n/t

[ViseGrip]

14. It's a hurricane! Come on Iowa! Get er done!

[onehandle]

17. Except for the polls that show Hillary leading.

No matter what, they will get around 50% each in NH and Iowa.

Seeing that Hillary has a solid lead in over 90% of states, I wouldn't get tooooooo excited.