NASA study shows worst drought in 900 years may be behind Middle East upheaval

[Gungnir]

Source: News Corp Australia Network

THE incredibly complex chaos of Islamic State and the upheavals of Syria and Iraq may have a very simple cause: The region’s worst drought in 900 years.

A NASA study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres shows the Middle East is in the grip of a mega-drought that began in 1998. It has taken hold in Cyprus, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and Turkey.

The water shortage has been taking a steadily increasing toll on farmers and the region’s ecology, with crop failures, dust storms and record-breaking heat now an annual event.

...

“The range of how extreme wet or dry periods were is quite broad, but the recent drought in the Levant region stands out as about 50 per cent drier than the driest period in the past 500 years, and 10 to 20 per cent drier than the worst drought of the past 900 years,” a NASA statement reads.

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/climate-change/nasa-study-shows-worst-drought-in-900-years-may-be-behind-middle-east-upheaval/news-story/82b533fc713ba2b743310caaadce7e2e

[forest444]

1. A belated welcome to DU, Gungnir!

Your post reminded me of some wise words from Dr. Vandana Shiva, who pointed out that many of today's wars in Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa are, in fact, water wars.

Thanks again for your scholarly thread, and, again, welcome!

[fullautohotdog]

2. I think...

destabilizing the governments in the region through invasion might have a little to do with the current conflicts...

BTW, the statement from NASA doesn't say the drought is the cause of the current conflicts. From the actual report:

NASA Finds Drought in Eastern Mediterranean Worst of Past 900 Years

"you have the potential for large-scale disruption of food systems as well as potential conflict over water resources," said Kevin Anchukaitis, co-author and climate scientist at the University of Arizona in Tucson.

He said potential, not that this is the actual cause. But it doesn't take a rocket surgeon to come to that conclusion when faced with the data.

Thank you for the thread that has nothing to do with Bernie/Hillary/Trump/Cruz or Nancy Reagan. Definitely worth the look.

[Demonaut]

3. that was probably taken in to account in that it aided us defeating Iraq

that had to be in the equation

[magical thyme]

4. funny. I just told an undecided voter in Maine this afternoon

that the uprising in Syria was not, as told by the media, about democracy, but started by a "thousand year" drought.

This is not news, but I'd like to see it in the mainstream media for a change.

[killbotfactory]

9. On top of the drought, the Iraq war created a refugee crisis in Syria

And we and our allies have been funding the "totally not terrorists we promise" Islamist opposition for years before all the uprisings. Whatever you think of Assad or the Syrian government, our part in this has been completely shameful.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

5. The drought created the vacuum, GWBush created ISIS, and ISIS filled the vacuum

Originally posted here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10027430510

[GliderGuider]

18. +1000! Thanks for sharing that! nt

[passiveporcupine]

21. Yes, thank you

I was not aware of the rural people swarming into the cities from drought. I should have been, but nobody is talking about this here.

[zentrum]

6. Don't tell Peggy Noonan

She was clutching her pearls several months ago about us lying extremists talking about the environmental crisis creating middle east upheaval.

When bread prices go up because of drought, and people can't feed their children—revolution and civil war ensue.

[Jitter65]

7. Excellent post. Thank you. nt

[mountain grammy]

8. This is just the beginning.

[ellenrr]

10. Christian Parenti's book on climate change and violence published in 2011

http://grist.org/article/2011-07-29-tropic-of-chaos-a-book-review/

[Tobin S.]

11. K&R

[pampango]

12. Juan Cole in 2014: How Repression and Climate Change Drove the Civil War

How Repression, Drought & Climate Change Drove the Syrian Civil War

Long before March of 2011, when Syrian demonstrations calling for reform and in some cases, regime change, morphed into a full-blown military conflict that has transformed into a supranational bloodbath, the economic and political policies of Bashar Al-Assad’s Baa’thist regime undoubtedly fomented major discontent among various segments of Syria’s population. ... events in the south-Syrian bordertown of Dera’a would forever change the socio-political dynamics of a nation ruled by the iron fists of the Al-Assad clan for more than four decades. Upon assuming the mantle of power in Syria, Syrians hopeful of political and economic liberalization under the modern, western-educated ophthalmologist-turned-president Bashar Al-Assad were mainly met with disappointment.

However, in a nation where the mukhabarat (secret police informants/intelligence agents) have long infiltrated all segments of society and institutions, a general aura of fear, suspicion, and paranoia persisted well into Bashar’s reign. I witnessed this first-hand when I visited and stayed in Dera’a for a few days with family friends several years before the uprising and recall the kind of vexing stares I received from some of those whom I attempted to raise the issue of Syrian politics with. I was a bit naïve and so I, more than anything, wanted to know if the stories I had heard about Syrian fears of the regime were legit. They were.

During the same year Bashar Al-Assad took power, ninety-nine Syrian intellectuals, writers, and critics crafted and signed the “Statement of 99” calling for an end to emergency rule/martial law that had been in place since 1963, for the state to pardon political dissidents detained, imprisoned, deported, or exiled by his father’s regime, formal recognition and implementation of freedom of assembly, press, and expression, as well as an end to the surveillance of its citizens by the secret police and security forces. The movement behind the statement was composed of both anti-regime hardliners as well as moderates who collectively sought political reform. The result of long-festering political and economic dissent among Syrians, the “Statement of 99” was a brow-raising announcement that, at minimum, made the regime slightly uncomfortable. The formation of various think-tanks, organizations, and social and political ‘parties’ coincided with Bashar’s takeover of Syria- all of which were critical of the regime’s political and economic monopolies on the country caused the regime to crack down on dissenters. The following year, in 2001, one thousand academics, critics, and activists launched the “Statement of 1,000” which expanded on the previous statement’s tenets and called for a multi-party democracy to supplant the one-party Baa’thist state. This was met with another, albeit harsher, government crackdown.

All of these grievances began to fester when anti-regime protests began in early 2011. While initially limited to small demonstrations calling on the lifting of the Emergency Laws and better economic policies, the government was able to contain them with relative ease. When they grew as they did in Dera’a in March of that year, the government’s crackdowns intensified and greater numbers of Syrians became disillusioned by the regime’s insincerity in addressing and implementing political, social, and economic reforms. The zero-tolerance policies of the Assad regime only sought to radicalize some already, economically and politically disenfranchised segments of the Syrian population, some of which had been subdued by his father in previous years and had since been boiling with discontent.

http://www.juancole.com/2014/09/maelstrom-repression-climate.html

[Dustlawyer]

13. We will not effectively address Climate Change until we get the money out of politics!

Get ready to fight for Publicly Funded Elections if Bernie wins!

[cynzke]

14. REMEMBER THIS FROM WAY BACK IN 2004? TWELVE YEARS LATER!!!!

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2004/feb/22/usnews.theobserver?CMP=share_btn_fb#_=_

[Sunlei]

15. a shame the rising sea levels can't be used to open channels across the desert lands.

fog nets could collect plenty of fresh water.

[L. Coyote]

16. Let's use climatechange to deflect blame from the United States military?

What a pile of crap. Middle East upheaval is caused by politics and war, FCS!

[GliderGuider]

19. How about it being both factors working together?

It's things like this that make complex systems ... well, complex.

[chapdrum]

17. Here in California, the implications are

being thoroughly ignored.

[former9thward]

20. Why is Israel having no problems?

They have plenty of water for their crops and people. Could it be its because their government is the only non-dictatorship in the region?

[NickB79]

23. Because they diverted the Jordan River decades ago for their use

And in so doing, deprived other ME nations of valuable water resources.

That, and they have the money to build desalination plants to supplement their water needs.

[former9thward]

24. I knew you would find some excuse to blame Israel.

But never blame the backward dictatorships of the ME.

[TowneshipRebellion]

22. So climate change is related to terrorism after all...

nt.