MSU poll shows Clinton has slim lead over Sanders

[Attorney in Texas]

Source: WLNS (Michigan CBS affiliate)

EAST LANSING, Mich (WLNS) – A new poll out of Michigan State University shows it may be a very close Primary race in Michigan between Democrats Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.

The winter State of the State survey shows Clinton has a five point lead over Sanders.

However it’s not a big enough lead to discount a possible Sanders victory tomorrow with results well within the survey’s margin of error.

Read more: http://wlns.com/2016/03/07/msu-poll-shows-clinton-has-slim-lead-over-sanders/

[onehandle]

1. I discount it. nt

[think]

2. OK

[Red Oak]

30. And your reasons?

[NowSam]

3. Youngsters, it is up to you

You were underpolled and can close the gap and make this a win for the future if you show up. Please please please get to the polls and vote for Bernie.

If Bullhorn Bill shows up don't let them keep you from voting. It is your right. If the polling place is on Lockdown for hours because Mr. Clinton shows up and his S.S. detail keeps people out than demand that you get to vote and in a timely manner.

This is your country, kids. Don't trust the machine. Take it over and make it your government again.

[SoapBox]

6. Makes ya wonder...would Bullhorn Slick Willy have the "brass" to try

another stunt like that?

And then there is NAFTA and all the big, fat, fucking LOSS of jobs in Michigan thanks to him...

Get out and VOTE for Bernie Michigan!

Do you really want a repeat of more job killing from another Clinton?

[NowSam]

7. Together for Bernie! nt.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

23. "Brass"? It's easy to grow "brass" ...

... when you have the Secret Fucking Service to keep you from being arrested, or even questioned.

[Cavallo]

14. Educated college students and their professors you mean.

Notice the Hillary supporters are voting the opposite way as them.

[vdogg]

4. LBN?

Poll is weeks old. So old in fact it doesn't factor into 538's forecast. Polls that have come out today and yesterday show Hillary leading by double digits and her lead widening. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/

[leftynyc]

8. Looks like the last date polled

was 3/3. 538 has more recent polls than that with SOS Clinton having double digit leads.

[PassingFair]

49. !

[Qutzupalotl]

5. We can do this!

With an open primary, independents and Republicans can cross over to vote for a sane alternative to the clown car. And Bernie (and now Clinton) are appearing on Fox News' town hall today!

[phazed0]

9. Funny how much a day's difference makes...

Yesterday, Michigan polling had Clinton +17... today, +5. Ouch.


Go Bernie!

[vdogg]

13. Actually

Yesterday it was plus 17, on March 3rd it was plus 5. OP is being misleading by using an old poll instead of the ones that were conducted most recently.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/

Ouch.

[phazed0]

15. You're right, my mistake

Wasn't trying to be misleading but have seen quite a few articles published today and they are referencing old polls - arg.

Like this one from MSU published today, using the March 3rd MSU poll

http://msutoday.msu.edu/news/2016/trump-leads-gop-field-in-michigan-democratic-race-close/

Have a good one!

[wiggs]

10. Interesting....five other, newer polls listed on 538 show the lead

at 24, 17, 11, 13, and 37 for Clinton. All are likely voters, polled March 1 or later. Some big differences, still.

Note: the Michigan State Poll only polled 262 likely voters going back to January and is given no weight by 538/Silver.

[wiggs]

11. Silvers projects 60 to 37. nt

[Adrahil]

37. Polling primaries is pretty hard. that's why you see the huge disparities.

Still, the aggregate results have not been terrible for primary states (as opposed to caucus states). But not as accurate as GE polls because turnout models for primaries are weaker.

[ram2008]

12. I'm afraid Bernie finished his campaign last night

And I say that as a supporter.

Between the "Excuse me, I'm talking" and the white people can never be poor comment. He will lose ground with women and the working class at a time he needed to make inroads.

Once he loses Michigan this will be over on the 15th with Florida and Ohio.

[Cavallo]

16. A terrible day for our country. But then, look who the majority of the Dems are.

Voting inversely of our colleges and professors says everything.

Sieg Hiel president Trump. I will consider running for Canada as the roundups start. I have many times been mistaken for a Mexican and asked if I was legal. I was born in the USA as were my parents and grandparents and great grandparents.

[Beaverhausen]

18. Care to explain that remark?

Who are the majority of Dems?

[LannyDeVaney]

35. I wish you all the best

I hope this link provides some useful information in your move.

[link:http://www.wikihow.com/Move-to-Canada|

[Cavallo]

36. I would be eligible.

You probably don't have to worry about this.

What Trump is saying, if he actually means it, means a whole lot of people will have to worry.

Thank you for the link. I live an hour from Canada and will go there with my family if it even looks like he is going to pull what he says he is. I am afraid of a fascist America.

[Fiendish Thingy]

17. Nah, March 15 is the beginning of the end for HRC

After that, Bernie is ahead in most of the remaining primaries. He could surpass HRC in pledged delegates after the California primary in June. In the meantime, HRCs lead will only shrink.

[Babel_17]

21. Yarp! :) nt

[ram2008]

22. This is deusional thinking

The remaining states are split between Hillary and Bernie as far as favorable goes. The problem is Hillary is favored in all the big states and already has a 200 delegate lead, while Bernie is favored in the smaller caucus states.

If he loses Michigan tomorrow that battle becomes even harder. It would take something catastrophic for Hillary to lose her lead.

[Fiendish Thingy]

31. You mean like an indictment?

There's quite a few large states left where Bernie,will rack up lots of delegates, California, Washington, New York, and several more.

[ram2008]

33. An indictment is the only thing that can save Bernie's campaign

New York is Hillary's home state so she'll win that, California best case scenario splits, and Washington is a Bernie win. In the end its not enough.

[Adrahil]

38. I'd love to see your delegate projections for that model. NT

[Fiendish Thingy]

43. Happy to oblige

[link:http://downwithtyranny.blogspot.ca/2016/03/clinton-will-build-her-biggest-lead-on.html|

Click on links in blog post to see analysis of data.

http://downwithtyranny.blogspot.ca/2016/03/clinton-will-build-her-biggest-lead-on.html

[Adrahil]

47. That's not quite a delegate projection.

However, after the surprise yesterday, I think the 15th is more in question now. And man... the polls were so wrong. SO, good luck, and let's see how it goes!

[Babel_17]

20. Agree to disagree, Sanders won the debate

"Excuse me, I'm talking" is fine unless one is sexist and thinks women need to be coddled.

The voting is proportional and Sanders could have hit home run after home run in the debate and that would have, at best, gained him a few more delegates than otherwise. So, cheer up, the monster hauls of delegates lay ahead.

[Attorney in Texas]

34. Sanders unequivocally hit his target. Hillary was Hillary - if you liked her and her centrist

third-way platform before the debate, you probably heard nothing to change your inclinations.

If you like Sanders' platform, you heard thinks that will draw you closer to his movement.

In the end, Progressives (like me) will see this as a great Sanders performance. Status quo centrists won't get it.

[LanternWaste]

39. I like to pretend people who disagree with me do so merely because "they don't get it" too.

I like to pretend people who disagree with me do so merely because "they don't get it" too. It certainly allows us the pretense we're much more clever than we really are... and the left-handed "observation" is satisfactorily self-validating, as well.

A win-win bumper-sticker for anyone with low self-esteem.

[Attorney in Texas]

40. If you realize that you are "pretending" and you persist in advocating you view, that's called lying

[greymouse]

42. ram2008

That white people can never be poor comment (not quite the way it was phrased) was not Bernie's. He was quoting what a young Black woman said to him. The MSM, esp. Fox, then engaged in distortion.

As to the Excuse me, I'm talking, good for him. Hillary kept interrupting into his time. If she were a man, no one would have thought anything about his comment. No feminist will object to a woman being held to the same standards as a man. Hillary wants it both ways, one of the things I dislike about her.

[JesterCS]

45. Well, he didn't lose Michigan.....n/t :)

[Babel_17]

19. Just released poll: Secretary Clinton over Senator Sanders by 13 points

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/23a456ac-d673-4189-9742-1f060ec2d926.pdf

Released:
Monday, March 7, 2016

-- Democratic primary --
Hillary Clinton currently holds a 55% to 42% lead over Bernie Sanders in the Michigan Democratic primary. Clinton enjoys a solid edge among non-white voters (68% to 27%), who make up more than one-fourth of the likely electorate. Clinton (49%) and Sanders (48%) are virtually tied among white voters. Clinton has a 57% to 40% lead among voters who earn less than $50,000 a year, and a 54% to 42% lead among those who earn $50,000 or more.
Sanders holds a solid lead (58% to 39%) among voters under the age of 50, but this is offset by Clinton’s more than 2-to-1 advantage among voters age 50 and older (65% to 31%).
“Clinton had Michigan all to herself eight years ago after her opponents pulled out when the state violated party rules in scheduling its primary too early. This time she appears to be holding on in the face of a tough challenge from Sanders,” said Murray.
Note: nearly all the interviews for this poll were conducted before Sunday night’s debate.

Much more at the link.

As a Sanders supporter I'm hoping the debate helped him, and that other trends are going his campaign's way. But, unsurprisingly, Clinton has the advantage going in.

[etherealtruth]

24. Here is the up to date polling (all major polls)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_democratic_presidential_primary-5224.html

[Attorney in Texas]

25. Oh, you missed the Michigan State University poll released today that shows only a 5% margin.

I'm sure that was an accidental oversight.

[etherealtruth]

27. I'm sorry, you must have overlooked the dates (and term "up to date")

http://msutoday.msu.edu/news/2016/trump-leads-gop-field-in-michigan-democratic-race-close/


i have paid close attention to the polls in my fair state ...... I have been undecided this entire primary season, believing the sum of the candidate strengths and weaknesses are essentially equal.

I will likely vote for Sanders tomorrow in the Michigan primary simply because Clinton is so far ahead in the polls. Had Sanders been far ahead in the polls i would have settled on Clinton

[silvershadow]

26. The wheels are starting to fall off. nt

[Cryptoad]

28. According to Nate Silvers latest polls-only forecast,

Hillary Clinton has a greater than 99% chance of winning the Michigan primary

[Attorney in Texas]

29. Hopefully Nate will be as accurate as his forecasts that Clinton and Trump would both win Oklahoma,

his forecast that Trump would win Iowa, his forecast that Trump would win Kansas, his forecast that Trump would win Maine, etc.

Nate is on a hot streak!

[greymouse]

41. so much for Nate Silver

[Cryptoad]

48. yea,

Nate been wrong twice in 12 years........

[JesterCS]

46. Should have played the lottery on that one. N/t

[pat_k]

32. kick'n'rec

That makes two recent polls that show his numbers up relative to earlier polling. Great to see.

[Cavallo]

44. They were way closer than Nate Silver.