Mook warns of defeat in Ohio, Illinois, Mo., 'outspent, outraised' by Sanders

[Attorney in Texas]

This discussion thread was locked as off-topic by tammywammy (a host of the Latest Breaking News forum).

Source: Washington Examiner

Hillary Clinton's campaign manager, citing Sen. Bernie Sanders' surprise victory in Michigan this week after outspending the Democratic front-runner, is warning supporters that it could happen again Tuesday in Ohio, Missouri and Illinois.

"Bernie outraised us by $12 million in February, then outspent us on TV in Michigan," which the Vermont senator won, Robby Mook emailed supporters.... Mook has reason to be concerned. A new scientific prediction of the race, produced by the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, shows Clinton losing Illinois and Ohio by a hair. A Sanders win would be huge news and give him more momentum, though it would remain difficult for him to catch Clinton in delegates.

"Based on the race and region model, we can predict that Hillary Clinton will win three states and Bernie Sanders will win two states on March 15. Clinton is predicted to receive between 65 percent and 67 percent of the vote in North Carolina, between 64 percent and 66 percent of the vote in Florida, between 52 percent and 54 percent of the vote in Illinois, between 46 percent and 48 percent of the vote in Ohio and between 45 percent and 47 percent of the vote in Missouri," said the report from Alan I. Abramowitz, a senior columnist with the Center's Larry Sabato Crystal Ball.



Read more: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/mook-warns-of-defeat-in-ohio-illinois-mo.-outspent-outraised-by-sanders/article/2585551

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I'm sure that this is Robby Mook playing the expectations game, but it is an interestingly candid acknowledgement.

Here's a link to the University of Virginia Center for Politics analysis mentioned in the news report showing Illinois, Ohio, and Missouri close but with Sanders slightly ahead!

[morningfog]

1. Sounds good to me.

[Roland99]

2. Or just pushing for more campaign donation$

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

49. Well, I'm convinced

I guess I'll send another couple of bucks to BxS' campaign.

[Roland99]

55. +1

[Chan790]

62. That's literally exactly what I just said.

Robbie Mook thinks Clinton might get outspent and outraised by Sanders...I'll have to send Sanders more money.

I don't want Mook thinking anything; I want him to know he's getting outspent and outraised...I want him to know win-or-lose 2016 is the end for DLC-aligned interests within the Democratic party. I want him to know that should he win, it'll only be because his candidate was forced to capitulate to running and governing as a real progressive after she was forced to forsake her corporate backers.

I want him know these things and be despondent over how much he's getting out-campaigned.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

3. well, hot damn.

For once in my life I hope Mook is correct.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

28. Mook the kook is right for once... maybe it's time for Hillary to dump her campaign staff?!

[Fuddnik]

37. I think Mark Penn and Dick Morris are available.....again.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

38. hahahaha! yessss!

[book_worm]

4. Yep pretty sure that Bernie is going to get Ohio, Missouri, Illinois and

NC will be close. The only one I think HRC will probably win is Florida.

[Attorney in Texas]

16. The problem with the expectations game is that it can be a self fulfilling prophecy in that the

campaign wants to set expectations low so their performance is graded on a curve but setting expectations too low can dampen your supporters' turnout.

It's a tricky game to play well.

[Buzz Clik]

5. Ok. Let's run with that:

Florida: 64% Clinton. Should yield about 137 Clinton; 77 Sanders
Illinois: 52% Clinton. Should yield about 81 Clintion; 75 Sanders
Missouri: 55% Sanders. Should yield about 32 Clintion; 39 Sanders
North Carolina: 65% Clinton. Should yield about 70 Clintion; 37 Sanders
Ohio: 54% Sanders: Should yield about 70 Clintion; 83 Sanders

Bottom line: 390 Clinton, 311 Sanders

(Clinton extends lead by 79 to a total lead of 290)

[Divernan]

8. Correctamundo! Clinton don't NEED no more $$$$!!!!

Last edited Fri Mar 11, 2016, 04:57 PM - Edit history (1)

According to your predictions, she's got all the elections sewn up, already!

[Buzz Clik]

10. What are you talking about?

[Vote2016]

13. The primary calendar doesn't go "full Bernie" until March 21 when Hillary begins a 0 for 9 stretch

[Buzz Clik]

19. If he takes 100% of the delegates in those states, he will barely erase the lead...

... just in time for closed primaries in New York, Connecticut, Delaward, Maryland, and Pennsylvania.

[Gore1FL]

42. There are a lot of Delegates and contests left.

A 200-300 lead this early is not insurmountable, especially given the trends.

[Buzz Clik]

43. The "trends" are that Sanders wins by the narrowest of margins when he wins.

His gap right now is over 10% of the remaining delegates with more bleeding on the way. It will likely be 14% after Tuesday -- he will need to take 14% more of the remaining delegates than HRC, and that's ignoring super delegates.

Maybe it will happen, but it will take a miracle.

We'll see.

[Gore1FL]

63. the trend is that he does better than expected by a fair amount.

He made over a 20% gain to win MI.

We should ignore super-delegates at this time because they aren't going to switch a nomination with them unless they want to explode as a party on National television.

Whether he or Hillary wins there nomination is unknown at this point. Most of the states haven't votes, and many of the the heavy-Hillary states came first. It will be interesting to see what NY and CA have in store. Bernie gets my Missouri vote next Tuesday.

Lots of voting left. It's hard to compete in name recognition against one of the most famous people in the world. People know his name now. The momentum is clearly in his favor.

I do hope, just in case Clinton gets the nod, that she revisits the reasons so many Dems don't want her. 2008 and 2016 should have been coronations. It's not happening for a reason.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

29. It's down-Hill from there for Clinton... Go Bernie!

Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!

[SheenaR]

30. Yes let's run with it

Hillary may not win even 5 more states going forward after Tuesday. So every state will be chipping away.

She will be nowhere close to the number needed and Supers will have a LOT to consider after this collapse.

[thesquanderer]

39. Wow, if Bernie were only down by another 79 after Tuesday...

...that would be amazing (with the calendar getting much more favorable to him after that).

[Plucketeer]

6. Aha!

Time for another "27 dollars" or so.

[Divernan]

7. Right! Moves me to send in yet another donation - to BERNIE!

In addition to my standing monthly donation, I also send in additional money as the spirit moves me! You're an inspiration, Robbie!

[NCjack]

40. Yes, time for me also. /nt

[PCPrincess]

9. I No Longer Listen To The Polls

Remember: The polls had Bernie down by ~15 pts in Michigan.

[Attorney in Texas]

21. First, this is not a poll. Second, the polls have generally only been off in Hillary's favor (i.e.,

they are generally either correct within the margin of error or they overstate Hillary's support and understate Sanders' support). As a result, the polling isn't garbage, it's just tilted toward Hillary in many instances, and so the polling can be used to set Hillary's ceiling or Sanders' floor.

[houston16revival]

11. I'm an ANR voter

Any Non Republican

but GOP heads will really be spinning if they're facing, aghast, dare we
say it ... a democratic socialist!

Will they call him a Democrat Socialist?

The era of GWB always called us the Democrat Party

"They were the Republic Party"

[Bubzer]

12. I especially like this part...

our results suggest that Bernie Sanders is likely to present a strong challenge to Hillary Clinton in the remaining Democratic primaries. Clinton has had a big advantage in the nomination race thus far because so many of the contests have been in the South. After next Tuesday, however, there will be no more primaries in the South. Based on the results presented here, she will be favored over Sanders only in non-southern states in which the nonwhite share of the Democratic primary electorate is at least 40 percent. The key question may be whether the huge delegate lead she has built up by winning southern primaries by landslide margins will be enough to sustain her through the rest of the primary season.

[Scootaloo]

17. Got any sources to back all of this up?

[noiretextatique]

20. Did the Koch brothers back Obama too?

Just wondering. Oops..replied to the wrong post. But since I am replying to you, do you think this post would be deleted if it wasn't primary season? Aren't attack posts supposed to be against the TOS? On edit: thanks to the jury for deleting.

[JackRiddler]

61. Don't complain, that was great!

The Koch Berniebros are also paying tens of thousands to populate the Bernie rallies, I hear. They live in mortal fear of President Clinton because she's going to stone-cold scold them about fracking and such. She will say, "Guys, cut it out!" She will have been the first to warn before the coming disaster. Afterward she'll oversee the drafting of an ineffective 3000-page regulatory bill with only the teeniest, most sophisticated, competent loopholes! Loopholes that work! The oil industry lobbyists she appoints to run the agencies will also scold!

Scold them! Scold, scold, scold the pirates! Scold them wherever they are!!!

[ChickenGuru]

18. You people?!?

Me thinks you should have taken the left at Albuquerque. RS is that way.

[noiretextatique]

22. Calling people stupid is probably not a good idea

It might get your post deleted, and honestly, it doesn't make you seem like the brightest bulb in the light bulb factory. I mean: making an inflammatory accusation without backing it up with facts.

[noiretextatique]

24. I told you so. Eom

[Herman4747]

15. Hey, Hillary, time to give another speech to Goldman Sachs!

Why should people send their hard-earned money to you, when your bankster buddies can bail you out?
And -- get this -- whatever you promise them, you don't have to reveal to the American people!! Ain't that great?



"You know I will always be there for you, Hillary!"

[SoapBox]

32. Arghhhhh...

That laughing makes my blood boil!

And like I said below...wake the HELL UP Florida, Illinois and North Carolina.

[turbinetree]

23. Sounds good to me I think I will use my clean hard earned money........................

to defeat the "Dark Money"

In fact, I think I will do it right now........................Feel the Bern.................


Honk---------------- for a political revolution Bernie 2016

[FairWinds]

25. Don't know if Bernie will win in Ohio, but . .

I can tell you that his ground game in North Central Ohio, where I live,
is really impressive, like nothing I have ever seen, and far beyond anything
Obama did.

Large numbers of enthusiastic young people, almost all new to politics, and working hard.

I guess it's time for this ol' lefty geezer to get the hell out of the way!!

[thereismore]

26. Get used to it, Mr. Mook. nt

[Armymedic88]

27. I can guarantee one thing..

Neither candidate will get over 60% in any state next Tuesday.

[vdogg]

46. That's a bold prediction

I wouldn't go there with Florida. Closed primary plus lots of elderly and minorities usually mean huge margins for Clinton.

[Armymedic88]

48. At most she wins 57-42 in Florida

[SoapBox]

31. Wake the hell up Florida, Illinois and North Carolina.

Don't prove to us that you are low-information voters.

[Ford_Prefect]

34. Tell it to the Effing Party!!!!!!!!

[azretired]

33. Mook is just being typically deceptive

I put this information in the same category s Rachel Maddow's claim that Bernie has a lot more money than Hillary to spend on thir campaign. That is absurd. Of course BS gets more contributions to his campaign. HRC gets fewer contributions to her campaign (which is bound by federal limits on individual limits) but picks up millions and millions of dollars from her superpacs. I have read that she had not planned to spend that money, which includes George Soros's $5 million, in the primary battle, but now BS's campaign has forced her hand. Of course Mook is intentionally misleading. HRC comes into almost every state with a huge lead because of her name, connections acquired from three previous campaigns, the support of the democratic establishment, etc. I know she keeps saying she wants to overturn Citizens United, but I believe she has taken more corporate and billionaire-millionaire money than any current presidential candidate in either party.

[PatrynXX]

36. yeah since Hillary can pay herself a Salary of like $240,000

off contributions and think that looks good

[PatrynXX]

35. and Florida is where Michigan was just the day before X_X

I doubt that debate went well either. you don't win with close races in major states

[vdogg]

45. Florida is a closed primary

No independents to save Bernine. Bernie lost Democrats by 17 points in Michigan. He hasn't moved the needle with actual Democrats at all.

[demwing]

41. If Bernie wins Ohio, Illinois, and Missouri

I'll have a Braingasm, I swear to god!!



It will cement the ides that Clinton can't win inside the south.

[vdogg]

44. Actually, your link shows Hillary slightly ahead in Illinois

Based on the race and region model, we can predict that Hillary Clinton will win three states and Bernie Sanders will win two states on March 15. Clinton is predicted to receive between 65% and 67% of the vote in North Carolina, between 64% and 66% of the vote in Florida, between 52% and 54% of the vote in Illinois, between 46% and 48% of the vote in Ohio and between 45% and 47% percent of the vote in Missouri.

I'll be shocked if she loses Illinois. Everything else seems about accurate though.

[Utopian Leftist]

50. Michigan proved that the polls are unreliable.

Illinois is not out of Bernie's reach, by any means.

[vdogg]

51. Didn't say that, though I do think Illinois is highly unlikely

OP stated that the information at the link said something it did not. I'm just correcting that.

[yellowcanine]

47. Meh. Washington Examiner. Right Wing Rag.

Such a crappy paper they give it away free in the Washington area to try to get subscribers. Just like the mooney Times.

[JackRiddler]

53. Did they fabricate what Mook said?

Is Mook the source or not?

Where did he get that interesting name, by the way. "Mook" is Hollywood-critic speak for "interchangeable henchman."

[yellowcanine]

58. I don't know but until a more reliable source reports the same thing call me a skeptic.

It is too easy to misquote or spin what people say.

[JackRiddler]

52. Interesting, Florida and North Carolina within range.

50-50, or "99% chance of Eternal Clinton Victory" as Important Brainiacs Who Aggregate Junk Poll Data might say.

[warrprayer]

54. Mwahahahahaha!

[thereismore]

56. Mook thinks elections are won by money. Sad. nt

[NorthCarolina]

57. Here on the ground it sure doesn't appear that Hillary has a lock on NC.

Who knows though, I'm in the Charlotte area and we do trend a little bluer than much of the state as a whole. I'd be really surprised if she actually pulled that kind of margin though.

[Kingofalldems]

59. This is an extreme right wing publication.

How did you find this? Regular reader?

[Gore1FL]

64. Don't be a dick. n/t

[Dont call me Shirley]

60. WooHoo! Go Bernie!

[tammywammy]

65. Locking

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