HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » Latest Breaking News (Forum) » New poll: Hillary Clinton...

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 09:49 AM

New poll: Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders too close to call in Missouri

Source: Kansas City Star

A new poll on the eve of the Missouri Democratic presidential primary shows the race ... stands at 47-46 percent with Hillary Clinton holding the slight advantage over Bernie Sanders.... Missouri’s primary Tuesday is open, meaning that any Missourian can vote in it, including independents.

Sanders fares far better among that group of voters, leading by a sizable 62-23 percent, PPP said.

Among Republicans, Sanders led 66-23 percent.

So who’s leading heading into Tuesday? Flip that coin in your pocket.



Read more: http://www.kansascity.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/the-buzz/article65918962.html



Actually, the Kansas City Star get's the poll backwards - it is Sanders who leads Hillary by 1% (47% to 46%).

59 replies, 4475 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 59 replies Author Time Post
Reply New poll: Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders too close to call in Missouri (Original post)
Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 OP
PWPippin Mar 2016 #1
Vote2016 Mar 2016 #2
SmittynMo Mar 2016 #3
Gregorian Mar 2016 #10
karynnj Mar 2016 #4
Loki Mar 2016 #8
karynnj Mar 2016 #12
Ed Suspicious Mar 2016 #18
WillyT Mar 2016 #5
Sunlei Mar 2016 #6
Loki Mar 2016 #7
Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #11
Loki Mar 2016 #30
Gore1FL Mar 2016 #14
merrily Mar 2016 #25
Cryptoad Mar 2016 #33
merrily Mar 2016 #37
Gregorian Mar 2016 #9
dchill Mar 2016 #13
retrowire Mar 2016 #31
wcmagumba Mar 2016 #15
Svafa Mar 2016 #35
KPN Mar 2016 #16
Betty Karlson Mar 2016 #17
EV_Ares Mar 2016 #19
ejbr Mar 2016 #21
EV_Ares Mar 2016 #27
merrily Mar 2016 #26
ejbr Mar 2016 #20
LongTomH Mar 2016 #22
Moostache Mar 2016 #23
Tiggeroshii Mar 2016 #24
jillan Mar 2016 #28
Land of Enchantment Mar 2016 #29
-none Mar 2016 #32
oberliner Mar 2016 #34
Tiggeroshii Mar 2016 #36
Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #41
oberliner Mar 2016 #46
Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #47
oberliner Mar 2016 #49
Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #54
oberliner Mar 2016 #55
oberliner Mar 2016 #44
Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #51
oberliner Mar 2016 #53
Tiggeroshii Mar 2016 #56
Tiggeroshii Mar 2016 #58
Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #39
oberliner Mar 2016 #43
Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #45
oberliner Mar 2016 #48
Cavallo Mar 2016 #50
joanbarnes Mar 2016 #38
democrattotheend Mar 2016 #59
ChairmanAgnostic Mar 2016 #40
tabasco Mar 2016 #42
WhiteHat Mar 2016 #52
Dont call me Shirley Mar 2016 #57

Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 09:55 AM

1. Fantastic! Tomorrow is going to be a hard day and long night to get through.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 10:00 AM

2. kick & rec #5

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 10:02 AM

3. I can't wait.

My wife and I are both for Bernie and live in Missouri. Along with all the other people I know that support him that were never called for a poll, that should put Bernie over the top.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to SmittynMo (Reply #3)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 10:33 AM

10. Yay!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 10:05 AM

4. Clicking on your link, I was shocked how poorly Hillary did with the independents in all states

Now, the choice here is Sanders/Clinton and they are people who are opting to vote in the Democratic election, not the Republican, but it does suggest that retaining the Democratic leaning independents might be easier with Sanders as the nominee. This does NOT mean they would vote Republican in the general election if Clinton wins.

This might be because many independents are simply people who do not want to affiliate with a party -- and it seems the proportion in many states is that more are opting for a status of unaligned. I would make the conjecture (based on no data) that it more common for younger people to do this than older people. So, the split here might not be much more than younger liberals prefer Bernie overwhelmingly. I have not seen any analysis on who these "independents" are. It would be useful if some poll studied these people in more detail.

The question is how many of them are young liberals, who would almost certainly vote for Clinton in the general election and how many of them are more libertarian than liberal - and liked Sanders better than both all the Republicans running and Clinton.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to karynnj (Reply #4)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 10:31 AM

8. Independents in most states vote Republican

and they love to act as spoilers in any primary, always have, especially in my state of Missouri. I've watched it many times, up close and personal.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Loki (Reply #8)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 10:42 AM

12. Not true - because given the % D, %R, % I -- if true, we would never win an election

Note for example that over half the voters in Massachusetts are non aligned -- yet it is far more likely that Democrats win Presidential or Congressional seats.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Massachusetts

In VT, EVERYBODY is non aligned, because you do not register by party. I can take a Democratic, a Progressive, or a Republican ballot in any primary here in Burlington. I know my daughter who opted to register in NJ when we lived there (while she was a college student in MA) registered as Independent. She is to the left of me and in fact registered in NJ because it was before the 2008 election and she thought Obama and Lautenberg were more likely to need votes than Obama and Kerry.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Loki (Reply #8)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 11:49 AM

18. False. People use their votes to select the candidate they best align with. Nobody but us political

junkies vote strategically (At least in my experience.). They usually don't pay close enough attention to even distinguish party affiliation of candidates or even know what that party differences would be if they did.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 10:16 AM

5. HUGE K & R !!! - THANK YOU !!!

 


Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 10:16 AM

6. "flip that coin in your pocket". I wish Mrs. Clinton would take note & team-up to unify the party.

Even if she wins by a nose, almost half the D party didn't primary vote for her.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Sunlei (Reply #6)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 10:28 AM

7. Win by a nose?

May I remind you of the Michigan results.........BS 49% Mrs. Clinton 48%. Independents in Missouri are mostly Republican and this is an open primary state. Many Trump voters are now turned off and have expressed a bigger desire to vote for her than for any other person in either party.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Loki (Reply #7)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 10:39 AM

11. LOL! Independents have not expressed a desire to vote for Hillary anywhere. They HATE her!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #11)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 12:09 PM

30. Excuse me, but you live in Texas.

I lived there for over 14 years in the North Houston area in Kingwood. I live in back in my home state of Missouri. I know many long time Republican's, one who knows my mother and is an ex military man. He has always voted for the Republican candidate, but he told her this year, he will vote Democratic for the first time in his life, and his vote will be for Hillary. You can laugh all you want to, but this is the Midwest, not Texas. Better yet, talk to my 23 year old son (a former BS supporter). He has been interested in politics since GBW was selected by the USSC. He was all Bernie, all the time when he first came out and started campaigning. I never influenced him one way or another, but he's a smart young man, and he realized just what this is all about. He no longer supports him, and he fits perfectly into Bernies demographic. So laugh all you want, there are people who actually think for themselves.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Loki (Reply #7)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 10:51 AM

14. The MI results was Bernie 20%+ over polling. That wasn't the result of independents.

That was the result of non "likely" voters hitting the polls.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Loki (Reply #7)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 11:57 AM

25. From the OP: "Among Republicans, Sanders led 66-23 percent."

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to merrily (Reply #25)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 12:37 PM

33. That should tell ya everything u need to know!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Cryptoad (Reply #33)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 01:25 PM

37. Same ole, same ole GOP votes for Bernie bad; GOP votes Hillary, great;

At least try to make sense. Bernie is unquestionably liberal. Hillary never claimed to be. If Bernie can be unabashedly liberal and still attract Republican votes, that's fantastic. If the only way Hillary can attract them is by going right, that's horrible.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 10:31 AM

9. Too close to call, unless you look at the dynamics.

They aren't tied; the snapshot just caught Bernie as he was passing her.

It looks close unless one realizes the gap came from 20 points down just a short time ago.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Gregorian (Reply #9)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 10:50 AM

13. I like your snapshot!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Gregorian (Reply #9)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 12:12 PM

31. yep.

Polls are only snapshots, not current states.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 11:01 AM

15. No poll for me...

No pollster called me....I'll be "Berning" in MO tomorrow....

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to wcmagumba (Reply #15)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 01:08 PM

35. Same here!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 11:21 AM

16. Wonder if Bill will show up at key polling places

just for kicks like he did in MA?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 11:45 AM

17. Great news!

 

But I am holding hope out for a few Michigan-like "upsets". Just because Clinton deserves to be trounced after worshipping at the altar of Nancy the Patron Saint of Viral Loads.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 11:51 AM

19. I can say with absolute 100% certainty that Bernie will be getting two votes tomorrow from my wife

 

& myself. Even our cat wants to go & vote for Bernie. However, our cat is a Socialist.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to EV_Ares (Reply #19)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 11:53 AM

21. If your cat wants Bernie,

then she is purrrrefect!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to ejbr (Reply #21)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 12:01 PM

27. LOL, yeah she does & she has even changed her meow to Bernie, Bernie.

 

Thanks for the post, they talk about no excitement for Dems this year & our voting is down. Actually, we are pretty excited about this year & the stronger Bernie gets, naturally the more exciting this election comes.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to EV_Ares (Reply #19)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 11:59 AM

26. I've said before and I'll say it again: the left fails to unite.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 11:52 AM

20. I knew you could

play pocket pool, but you can also flip coins there?!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 11:54 AM

22. I've been doing Get-Out-The-Vote canvassing every weekend here in Kansas City

I'll be out tomorrow as long as I can.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 11:55 AM

23. Saw a homemade sign for Bernie on an Interstate overpass this AM...

Made my morning!

Was running late for work this morning and feeling surly (time change Monday is the WORST!!!)...and there it was on the overpass of I-270 North and Manchester Road (West St. Louis County for those familiar with the region)...

A homemade sign calling for support for Bernie!

Put a smile on my grumpy face that is still there!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 11:57 AM

24. High turnout means Sanders wins. Low turnout means Clinton wins.

 

GET OUT THE MOTHERUCKING VOTE

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Tiggeroshii (Reply #24)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 12:06 PM

28. Amen to that!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Tiggeroshii (Reply #24)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 12:09 PM

29. LOL nt


Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Tiggeroshii (Reply #24)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 12:33 PM

32. Democrats win when there is a high voting turnout.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Tiggeroshii (Reply #24)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 12:57 PM

34. With minority voters it's the reverse of that

 

If there is high turnout among non-white voters then Clinton will do well.

Non-white voters (especially African-Americans) have been Hillary's strongest voter demographic thus far.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to oberliner (Reply #34)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 01:10 PM

36. Everybody voting is good for Bernie.

 

The AA vote is starting to see a split in it with Jesse Jackson's endorsement. He is already winning the Latino vote in a landslide

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Tiggeroshii (Reply #36)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 02:07 PM

41. As we move out of the Bible Belt, we'll see that Sanders wins progressive African American votes and

Hillary will continue to win the centrist, establishment, status quo African American votes.

Contrary to Hillary's race-defined campaign, Sanders is running an ideological defined campaign. Hillary's assumptions about the uniformity of the views within the African American communities will be debunked.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #41)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 02:54 PM

46. In Massachusetts, Clinton won among self-described liberals and Bernie won among moderates

 

Though it was fairly close in both cases.

Clinton won among non-whites by a healthy margin.

In Michigan (another non-Bible Belt state), Clinton won among African-American voters by 40 percentage points.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to oberliner (Reply #46)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 02:58 PM

47. So we agree that the margins with African American voters is vastly different in the Bible Belt.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #47)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 03:00 PM

49. Yes we do

 

The margins of victory in the southern states for Hillary among African-American voters were generally 80-20 or even higher.

Outside of the south, Hillary still consistently outperforms Bernie among non-white voters, though by smaller margins.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to oberliner (Reply #49)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 04:14 PM

54. Why do you keep referring to "non-white voters" when discussing results outside the Bible Belt? What

racial demographic is Hillary carrying outside of the Bible Belt other than African Americans?

Is she winning Arabs outside of the Bible Belt? Not apparently.

Is she winning Asians outside of the Bible Belt? Not apparently.

Is she winning Hispanics outside of the Bible Belt? Not apparently.

Is she winning Indians outside of the Bible Belt? Not apparently.

Is she winning Native Americans outside of the Bible Belt? Not apparently.

Is she winning Whites outside of the Bible Belt? Not apparently.

Imposing an artificial racial grid over a progressive/not-progressive divide (or Bible Belt/not-Bible Belt divide) is not helpful.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #54)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 04:42 PM

55. The exit polls for Massachusetts used that term

 

The numbers of African-American, Latino, Asian, and other voters of color were not large enough individually to be able to yield statistically significant survey data, so they were grouped together under the heading of "non-white voters" where they represented 15 percent of the voting total, making for statistically significant data.

Generally speaking, African-American voters make up a much larger percentage of the voter base in the Democratic primaries than those other groups that you listed.

The majority of the primaries thus far have been in states in the south which have large African-American populations and Hillary has done exceedingly well among that population.

Similarly, in Texas, the state with the largest Latino population thus far, Hillary did very well among that group also.

It will be interesting to see if Bernie is able to win the African-American and Latino vote in the upcoming primaries. That would certainly support the claim that Hillary's strength among those groups is limited to the south (although her success among non-white voters in Michigan and Massachusetts would belie that claim).

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Tiggeroshii (Reply #36)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 02:46 PM

44. Bernie is winning the Latino vote in a landslide?

 

What is your evidence for this claim?

Do you think Bernie will win the Latino vote in Florida?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to oberliner (Reply #44)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 03:25 PM

51. I never said Sanders was winning any racial group by a landslide - I said it is an ideological and

not a racial divide that separates the supporter bases for the two candidates.

I do not expect that the progressive Jewish civil rights leader from Brooklyn via Vermont is going to do all that well in the Bible Belt (including Florida).

Outside of the Bible Belt, I am confident Sanders is winning and will continue to win. The only point of debate in my mind is whether Sanders' victory in the 37 states outside of the Bible Belt is big enough to overcome Hillary's win in the 13 Bible Belt states.

We'll see.

So far, Sanders is getting crushed in the Bible Belt and Sanders is crushing Hillary (9 states to 3) outside of the Bible Belt. I agree that Hillary is a very strong regional candidate in the Bible Belt, but I see little evidence that Hillary is a viable national candidate.

I guess we'll see.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #51)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 03:54 PM

53. My response was to a different poster who did make that claim

 

See above (post #36). That is the post to which I was responding.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to oberliner (Reply #53)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 05:35 PM

56. Seen polls that have shown a substantial lead. I do think he could win

 

the Latino vote in Florida. I've seen polls both ways though, so we will just see what the exit polls say.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to oberliner (Reply #53)

Tue Mar 15, 2016, 05:46 PM

58. Early exit polls show he is winning Illinois Hispanic voters with 68%

 

Haven't seen any for other states though

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink



Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #39)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 02:44 PM

43. No

 

Latino voters also tend to favor Hillary, though not by as large a margin as African-American voters.

This is true more so in primaries than caucuses where Bernie is uniformly stronger.

In the Texas primary, Hillary got around 70 percent of the Latino vote.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to oberliner (Reply #43)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 02:52 PM

45. We certainly agree Hillary is beating the Jewish Progressive in the Bible Belt. I see no evidence

that, outside of the 13 states that share the Dixiecrat heritage, to suggest that Hillary performs better than Sanders among any racial or ethnic minority aside from African Americans.

Personally, I do not think that this is a racial issue but a cultural issue that has more to do with embracing progressivism based on age demographics more than racial demographics.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #45)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 02:59 PM

48. Also in Massachusetts and Michigan

 

She won the African-American vote in Michigan, for example, by 40 points.

It is pretty much an indisputable fact that Hillary pretty consistently does better than Bernie within this demographic for whatever reason.

Certainly that can change, and it would be great for Bernie's chances if it did. But to this point, the numbers are what the numbers are.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #39)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 03:04 PM

50. Thank you. I have great hope for the Latino vote. I'm glad to see over half going for Bernie.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 01:36 PM

38. Lamestream media (Fox-local) reports Quinnipiac poll showing Clinton ahead in two states----

THAT MEANS BERNIE IS AHEAD IN THE THREE OTHER STATES!: (Crickets-no mention of that.)

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to joanbarnes (Reply #38)

Tue Mar 15, 2016, 06:06 PM

59. Sadly, no

I looked up the Quinnipiac poll you mentioned and they only polled Ohio and Florida. Clinton was leading in both. IL, MO and NC were not polled.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 02:04 PM

40. someone will be misery-able tomorrow,

and I suspect it will not be Bernie.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 02:27 PM

42. Missouri's going for Sanders

 

These polls don't reach a lot of people who will be pulling levers for Sanders.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 03:35 PM

52. No coin flip necessary.

 

Bernie is the people's choice wherever and whenever the people are truly permitted a choice by GOP state legislators.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 14, 2016, 08:06 PM

57. Get out and vote for Bern, MO!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread