Democrats Evenly Split Over Clinton, Sanders in Bloomberg Poll
Last edited Thu Mar 24, 2016, 01:40 PM - Edit history (1)
Source: Bloomberg
More than halfway through a nomination race that she entered as the clear favorite, Hillary Clinton finds herself deadlocked with Bernie Sanders among Democrats.
Even after more than two dozen primaries and caucuses in which Clintons amassed a commanding lead in votes and in delegates needed to win the nomination, a Bloomberg Politics national poll found that Sanders is the first choice of 49 percent of those who have voted or plan to vote in this years Democratic contests, while the former secretary of state is preferred by 48 percent.
Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-03-24/democrats-evenly-split-over-clinton-sanders-in-bloomberg-poll-im63yb0w
bravenak
(34,648 posts)Not by popular vote. And she is winning that too.
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)In the meantime, there's a whole lot of pro-Bernie states coming up. Hold onto your hat!
bravenak
(34,648 posts)Plus many more places. That's why he's so far behind, if he has a good night, she turns around and stomps him back and gets even more superdelegates too. And they COUNT.
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)"ENTIRE SOUTH" ... As if the south ever mattered in a democratic primary. Oh, I'm sure you can find a state or maybe even two that actually voted blue for once, but that just doesn't matter... because in the GE, they will NEVER VOTE FOR HILLARY!!! And...the states that actually vote blue? Yeah, the majority of them will be pro Bernie. She has NO electability. NONE.
Can't win the majority of Blue states...but win a ton of red? She's going nowhere fast! But hey! You can always console yourself into believing she's gonna win.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)Heyo! They have books on US Government for the free. Gratis! Kostenlos!
The South does count in the Democratic primary. Hell, with the growth rate of black voters, it will matter more and more in the General too. And she BERNED HIM UP OFF THE BLOCK in the South.
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)She has no electability. No point in selecting hilly since she's just going to lose.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)Plus, he will not have the 'establishment' behind him. I mean, he is fighting them and seems to want to bring down the establishment. Those superdelegates ARE the ESTABLISHMENT. He has no damn chance of taking her supers. None. Not onky does he need to make up the 300 delegate deficit in regular delegates, he has to make up the 400+ superdelegate lead she has on him. Ain't happnin captain!
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)"He has no damn chance of taking her supers" I can't wait till he makes you eat those words. I'll have the salt n katsup ready for you!
bravenak
(34,648 posts)Bubzer
(4,211 posts)Have a great day!
bravenak
(34,648 posts)Which will NEVER EVER HAPPEN. Can't win the general without us either. And not ALL Sanders supporters would let Trump win. Far fewer than what we need to win. We will not be pressured by any independents to choose their candidate. There are way more of us and we matter too. And we decide who wins, thank you very much.
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)You've ALREADY been pressured by independents, regardless of what you think. But hey, if you want to view the world through shit-stained glasses, that's business. Bye!
bravenak
(34,648 posts)Bubzer
(4,211 posts)Cary
(11,746 posts)Last edited Fri Mar 25, 2016, 10:44 AM - Edit history (1)
I don't think you matter, in that way. I don't care one bit what you come to but I feel sorry for you. I suggest.you work on self-actualization.
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)... check that... I was wrong. It actually does mean nothing to me.
In other words... I don't accept your analysis.
And you get to remain ignorant of whatever self-actualization is going on in my life.
In other words, I also don't accept your concern trolling.
But, have a great day anyway!
(Disclaimer: I actually do care what HRC supporters have to say... but only when they're not engaging in ad hominem.)
Cary
(11,746 posts)Intentionally, I'm sure.
You don't matter to me. Why? Not because I am, as you call me, "a hillary supporter."
Do I support Hillary? Sure I do, and I would support Bernie if he were the nominee. Let's get something clear here, no matter what you think or no matter what you say, I oppose "conservatives." Their ideology is a dangerous ideology. I believe this election is critical for us Democrats (me, and I don't think you but then that doesn't matter, and I will clarify what you already know). I could explain that further but you and I both know that, regardless of any silly and circular rhetoric you would deploy in a lame attempt to justify harsh judgments of the Democratic Party, that is our vehicle for getting our agenda passed.
You don't matter to me because we will win. You don't matter to me because your silly, circular sophistry is encapsulated in a small group of people who make a lot of noise and not much else. You don't matter to me, as a mainstream Democrat, because as you are currently constructed you have absolutely nothing to offer me. Your reasoning is emotional, not rational. Your behavior is atrocious. Further you are an embarrassment and I, personally, wish to distance myself from the likes of you as much as I possibly can.
I left off the part about how as things go Hillary will be our nominee. That's important. And, too, they are both great candidates and both would/will destroy Donald Trump. And the Republican Party may not survive this because unlike us, their extremists matter to them.
I hope that clarifies it for you.
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)And yes... absolutely intentionally. I give zero consideration to those who embrace those and similar tactics. Not sure why you'd expect anything else.
You may have had a substantive argument in those paragraphs... but I stopped at "You don't matter to me."
I want you to understand something here. I was going to give your comment due consideration. I was going to, because at initial blush, it looks like you might have put some thought and substance behind your comment... and my inclination under such circumstances is to engage in conversation.
I stopped because "You don't matter to me" is antithetical to everything I believe a liberal should stand for. I stopped because, while I said your opinion doesn't matter to me, I left open a path of communication when I laid out my disclaimer, that I actually do care what HRC supporters say, when not engaging in ad hominem... and because my equivalent argument of: I'm not interested in what you have to say if you're going to embrace attacks, is considerably better than your dehumanizing and empathy lacking: "You don't matter to me".
I would say if I didn't matter to you, you wouldn't have bothered to reply in the first place... or to write up a response of a little over three paragraphs. Perhaps I really don't matter to you, and this is just a case of feeding your own ego... I'm not sure... what I am sure of, however, is you've successfully closed the door on further communication.
So, pat yourself on the back. Take a bow. Shine up that badge of dubious achievement, and wear it without whatever pride you can muster. You have take a huge step toward becoming a conservative... and everything I revile about the self-serving GoP.
Cary
(11,746 posts)"I want you to understand something here. I was going to give your comment due consideration...."
Oh good grief. You, you, you, you, blah blah blah.
Your candidate is going to lose. "Conservatism" is a dangerous ideology.
These are the facts of life. It's not about me. You don't have to accept the facts of life. Stay in your rabbit hole, it's not going to matter.
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)Cary
(11,746 posts)there is no way to reach people who act like you're acting here.
KPN
(15,642 posts)I don't buy that absent substantiation. Democrats will vote for whoever the nominee ends up being. Now, Independents, thats another story -- and Bernie creams Hillary in that regard.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)He gets enthusiams from indies and young voters. They are not reliable Dems. Will black voters stand in those 8 hour lines like we did for Obama in swing states? We have been told how unimportant we are many times. How the South is nothing to them. We are written off. Guess what? We bring the margins in those swing states that are needed to win the General, why would they stand in line for him any better than for Hillary, who lets them know that THEY MATTER?
What do I know? I'm just an uninformed, ignorant black confederate, according to a few.
KPN
(15,642 posts)when Bernie gets the nomination I guess.
Elmer S. E. Dump
(5,751 posts)Bubzer
(4,211 posts)Elmer S. E. Dump
(5,751 posts)are utopian millennials that "don't really understand how (fill in the blanks) works".
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)That really sets me off. It's so incredibly easy to go out, do some research, grab a link, bring it back and post it... yet most of her supporters don't bother... they just gobble up the bull, regurgitate it, and if challenged on it, pretend you're a sexist, racist, old, rich, prius-driving, latte' swilling, angry white male.
It's all name calling anymore.
I mean, don't get me wrong, I agree with you...it's just I'm a little more bothered by the blind acceptance of propaganda.
Elmer S. E. Dump
(5,751 posts)I really had no idea it could get this bad on DU. I vividly remember the PUMA's in 2007-8. I though that was bad, but they were pussycats in relation to this bunch.
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)So, silver lining I guess.
Avalon Sparks
(2,565 posts)Blind acceptance of propaganda is a big problem...
It doesn't help that the Internet is full of propaganda, it's difficult to identify spin pieces on many topics, and time consuming to cross check information and debunk the bullshit. So many folks take a few opinion pieces at face value and deem the self an expert.
For exampke, I recently took a deep dive into information about free trade agreements, I'm two months in and still trying to get my head around it. Leaning more and more to the opinion they very damaging to the US middle and working class. It would be hard to realize that though cause there are so many articles claiming this big fat turd is a piece of chocolate cake.
It's either information overload or a willful ignorance.
fierywoman
(7,683 posts)I'm the same age, same experience, same decision. Just can't do it.
Akamai
(1,779 posts)Go, Bernie!
ChiciB1
(15,435 posts)Show today. I think many, many blacks are now beginning to see things much more differently. I'm NOT going to repeat my comments here, but if you have the ability to live stream his show you might want to listen to some Blacks who called in and had some VERY negative things to say about her. Two that I recall right now, and I think there were more came out and called her a racist. As I said in my other comments, people who stated they were Bernie supporters also called in to say THEY would vote for Hillary if she was the nominee. They were trying to make the point that Hillary needed to be supported even though the calls weren't toned down in any way.
The blacks who were calling her out really did so strongly.
It's up to you how you want to digest this information, but you CAN listen to it from his show today. FSTV is where he's on from 12:00 to 3:00 every week day. Thom did try very hard to make valid points in defense of her, but also did say that "white people" can never really understand what any person of color has had to go through because of their skin color.
I'm a white woman who has never had any problem accepting ANY person of color, but I DO KNOW that my skin color is actually a privilege not afforded to others. However, just because I say I accept all people I haven't walked in their shoes. But, I've also not walked in the shoes of people born into poverty. I've never had a lot of money, never will... but I am white.
redkwamya
(17 posts)There was only one non-minority person in attendance. I don't think that Hillary is going to have to worry too much about losing the black vote.
cannabis_flower
(3,764 posts)would vote for The Three Stooges (Trump, Cruz, or Kasich) rather than Bernie?
SCantiGOP
(13,869 posts)I trashed it. Bye.
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)Last edited Fri Mar 25, 2016, 01:06 PM - Edit history (1)
*on edit*
Can't "take over" an OP that was yours in the first place. Just sayin.
sharp_stick
(14,400 posts)isn't some kind of magic code that can be changed by the will of Bernie Sanders wood sprites the silence will be deafening.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)It will be a damn PLEASURE.
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)bravenak
(34,648 posts)angrychair
(8,693 posts)From a purely policy difference of opinion, you look forward to people like me be "muted" because I have a difference of opinion and do not think that HRC is our best candidate moving forward???
If tRump implodes and it is Cruz, her numbers are much weaker right now and Cruz is much more more likely to reconcile and unite their Party than tRump. That is a horrible development if HRC is our candidate.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)That nonsense needs a mute button.
angrychair
(8,693 posts)To often the tone and implementation is laid on more aggressively than is suitable.
While I feel southern voters are as valid as any, I do feel that the current primary/caucus timetable is disproportionately weighed in favor of southern states having more influence than larger Democratic populations that are also traditional Democratic strongholds like the west coast or New York state. There are more registered Democrats in CA than in every southern state combined and therefore I believe should have a larger influence on the outcome for who we choose. I don't live in CA but I still think that is completely fair and reasonable. Again, I think southern voters count as much as anyone else but I also think our Democratic strongholds should have far more impact and influence in shaping of outcomes since these states contain more Democratic voters and contribute the lion share of campaign funding.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)angrychair
(8,693 posts)In ad funding?
Not an idea without merit. I should do a little digging to see if there is any peer-reviewed research into the options and the Good and bad of each.
KPN
(15,642 posts)No?
Elmer S. E. Dump
(5,751 posts)Hi bravenak!
bravenak
(34,648 posts)You know I would just talk more if that happened. It is what I DO.
Elmer S. E. Dump
(5,751 posts)greymouse
(872 posts)If Bernie has the lead in regular delegates and the supers give the nomination to Hillary, she will be lucky to carry one state in the general.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)And will have to beat her by way way more than likely to break even. If it is even stevens they stay. They might stay anyway since they are the establishment he is opposed to.
spooky3
(34,438 posts)Bubzer
(4,211 posts)spooky3
(34,438 posts)where demographics are like those in ID and UT, eg, disproportionately white, caucus or open primary, etc.
And your non sequitur response suggests that you don't see the contradiction in your arguments re Southern "red states" and Western "red states."
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)spooky3
(34,438 posts)Look at the portion of 538 that is relevant to my comment?
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/
I'm done trying to help you focus on facts. Have a nice day!
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)I'll borrow a line from you, since it's so fitting, and your use of it was so off target:
I'm done trying to help you focus on facts. Have a nice day!
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)Say Madame President about 3 times and you will get used to it.
Major Hogwash
(17,656 posts)But, only if Bernie is the nominee.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)She will campaign in states that are winnable in the general election.
That what presidential candidates always do.
They go and concentrate their efforts where they can win, not where they can't possibly win the presidential election.
The "southern primary" strategy was obviously set-up to favor her for the nomination.
The strategy for her in the general election is to boycott the red Republican south.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)We are going to turn some of those states PURPLE
GoneOffShore
(17,339 posts)Bubzer
(4,211 posts)You're on target.
GoneOffShore
(17,339 posts)All it takes is walking around and talking to people IRL and the numbers of people who would rather have root canal surgery or a weekly colonoscopy than have "that woman" as President are people that the party is ignoring. Independents (who may sit on their hands) and Republicans to whom Bernie appeals (who wouldn't think of voting for a Clinton).
Because of HRC, her hubris and lack of support in the quarters mentioned, I'm pretty sure we'll get a Republican President.
When Bernie entered the race and his numbers started to climb the DNC should have ditched HRC and gotten on the progressive wagon.
But nooooo..... Republican not so lite is their strategy.
mcar
(42,301 posts)Guess red states are only good if they go Bernie? How about FL, my state? Presidentially purple, went big for HRC in the primary. Does FL matter? How about OH? When did that become part of the south?
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)Last edited Thu Mar 24, 2016, 05:01 PM - Edit history (1)
mcar
(42,301 posts)You said:
You said nothing about what "hilly" should have won or lost.
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)mcar
(42,301 posts)But do keep trying yourself.
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)Great! Can't wait for your detractions of all the times Hillary has equivocated, changed position, and "evolved".
Wont hold my breath though!
greymouse
(872 posts)if it's Trump vs. Bernie, at least according to the polls. Trump vs. Clinton, not so much. Don't underestimate how Trump's crudity turns off Mormons, and the general dislike for Hillary.
strategery blunder
(4,225 posts)One of the most interesting (and unreported) tidbits about this last Tuesday was that in Utah, Bernie Sanders received more than twice as many votes as Donald Trump did in their respective caucuses.
Granted the Republican side was a Cruz blowout in Utah, but I think the results show that Trump is HATED there.
He talks so much about persecuting people who don't look like and/or agree with him. Mormons might be conservative, but they've had such a history of being persecuted themselves that I doubt they'd go full on fascist.
brer cat
(24,559 posts)You better do a little more studying before you start bragging. Neither has voted democratic since 1964...worse than the south you dismiss.
Amimnoch
(4,558 posts)You're right most of those southern states.. in the GE their Electoral College votes are going to Republicans. So are more than a few of Sanders states.
There's also a number of states that each candidate now has that WILL go Democrat regardless of if it is Hillary in the GE or Bernie in the GE.
In every Presidential GE election there's only a hand full of states, the swing states, that determines who will get the majority of Electoral college votes.
Who's.. down the board.. got those? Hillary. Especially Ohio and Florida.. the 2 Kingmaker (or should I say queenmaker?) states where Hillary won very handily.
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)We've not had this level of dissatisfaction with the establishment in the past 30 years. We've certainly had some.. but we're talking around 40% of the democratic party refusing to vote for Hillary. Either Bernie would have to do an amazing job of winning over his supporters to her side, or she and her supporters have a lot of work to do ASAP... else I truly don't think she can win the GE. She certainly wont do it through conservatives... and she's had a hell of a time reaching independents... add that to record low party affiliation, and she's got some serious trouble... all presuming she wins.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/188096/democratic-republican-identification-near-historical-lows.aspx
CreekDog
(46,192 posts)at the same time you're arguing that Idaho and Utah do matter?
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)CreekDog
(46,192 posts)although you did misunderstand correctly, so there's that.
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)It's unfortunate you couldn't be right about something substantive. But, hey, take your wins wherever you can get em.
kjones
(1,053 posts)It's really funny how quick you guys can turn on a dime from one thing to another.
Polls are terrible, polls are gospel, caucuses are evil, caucuses are great, disenfranchisement
... disenfranchisement ... all votes matter...those are just southern votes...
By the way, red states huh? What way do ID and UT swing?
Maybe it's just some red states that you think matter...you know...well, you'll
figure it out...
MasonDreams
(756 posts)And, of course, the south, is completely irrevant. In the general, the south is all red.
Super delegates should not overrule the people's choice.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)Super delegates should vote for whomever they please.
MasonDreams
(756 posts)Google it
bravenak
(34,648 posts)I also know that they are establishment Dems. They do not want to tear down their own party
MasonDreams
(756 posts)If the Party does not change to match the people. The estab Will get unestablished
bravenak
(34,648 posts)mdbl
(4,973 posts)Those southerners I have spoken to voted for her blindly, without any knowledge of Bernie or Clintons' record over the last 15 years. So we get another nominee voted in based on old rhetoric.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)Nobody has to give him a chance if they already like somebody.
mdbl
(4,973 posts)That was my only point.
Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin
(107,918 posts)Are you really so deluded that you think Arizona was rigged in her favor?
As for the rest of the states Sanders needs to get an average of 58% of the remaining delegates just to pull even. Mathematically unlikely.
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)58% in the remaining PRO-BERNIE STATES?!? Easy! See you at the convention!
Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin
(107,918 posts)Are you intelligent enough to know the difference?
The number of polling places was cut down from 200 to 60. That is a problem. But any intelligent person knows that should affect all candidates equally. To say it creates an advantage for one candidate over the other is quite a bizarre leap in logic.
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)Hilly only wins when she can suppress the vote. Thanks for playing anyway.
Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin
(107,918 posts)You can't
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)So long!
Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin
(107,918 posts)You won't shut up. I generally don't block people but you've earned it.
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)However will I live with myself?
Elmer S. E. Dump
(5,751 posts)On second thought, I'd just be wasting my carpal tunnel.
sharp_stick
(14,400 posts)Bubzer
(4,211 posts)LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)You lack objectivity. Your allegations are unsupported and biased. Little more than a bumper-sticker. But as you said, you take your pretense of wins when you can get 'em, regardless of what you're playing
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)It's like watching a child try to wield a claymore. You might be able to use it effectively, but you're far more likely to have it taken away and used against you.
Point of example, I'll take your exact wording, and apply it to you:
You lack objectivity. Your allegations are unsupported and biased. Little more than a bumper-sticker. But as you said, you take your pretense of wins when you can get 'em, regardless of what you're playing.
Voila. Bested by your own quote!
Have a great day!
katmille
(213 posts)Not only that, but more minorities were kept from voting and they tend to vote for Hillary. So her win might have been even greater had more people been able to vote in Arizona. Plus, caucas states are very discriminatory against minorities, poor and disabled.
fun n serious
(4,451 posts)We've seen crap like this fir decades. I do not ever remember a do-over.
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2014/01/election-fraud-in-the-2008-indiana-presidential-campaign-a-case-study-in-corruption
pnwmom
(108,976 posts)Less than 15 delegates. And she had a lead of more than 320.
If they split the rest of the races, as this national poll would indicate, she'd still be 300 delegates ahead.
Until national polls start showing Bernie 20 points ahead, she doesn't have anything to worry about.
spooky3
(34,438 posts)Remaining states, CA and NY.
This poll is highly suspect; it reports what Dems say they did in previous primaries as well as those going forward. The votes already taken, combined with likely outcomes in CA and NY are nowhere close to 50-50.
George II
(67,782 posts)The only states that Sanders has been able to win have been small, rural, mostly caucasian states except for a slim, 18,000 vote win in Michigan (~1%)
What "pro-Bernie" states are coming up? Can't be "a whole lot", there are only 21 states that haven't voted yet.
KPN
(15,642 posts)end up with more, she does. But Bernie's giving her a heck of a fight. And we're with him till the end -- win, lose or draw ... because he has the common persons' interests at heart, and has the experience, intelligence, strength and steadiness to be a GREAT President.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)That matters. Who builds the best coalition wins. Fine that yu are with him all the way, and we are with her all the way. But the original headline was different and I was responding to that. We do not see him like you do.
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)Good luck with that!
bravenak
(34,648 posts)How horrible. No wonder he has issues winning us over.
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)... including prison bucks, or how she called young black males super predators. She'll NEVER live that down.
And that's just scratching the surface of all the corruption she's involved in.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)I was over it the next day
Leaves me feeling that you (Hillary supporters) have lost sight of fundamental Democratic Party principles. So you are Third Wayers who usurped party control during the slick Willy days.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)Not just sit around spewing unfettered outrage and impotent dreams of glory. We have actual work to do.
I love how you say "just sit around spewing unfettered outrage" followed by "and impotent dreams of glory". So much hypocrisy.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)Use it freely. I worked hard on that.
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)With comments like that, I'm not sure I could compete.
Paulie
(8,462 posts)A "good democrat" and party loyalist wouldn't want a Green in the first place... As we are told here on DU.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)I would vote for her. And I would. But she is not a Dem and I only vote Dem if I can help it.
Paulie
(8,462 posts)So you went to Sanders then Hillary. But it's fine, as long as it's not a vote for a rethug how can one be unhappy.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)I am practical. Republicans scare me. I will vote left no matter what. I am to the left of Stein, Sanders, and Clinton so they seem not so much different policy wise. Stein agrees with me on way more stuff, but ideally, I personally would go further than she on some issues.
Avalon Sparks
(2,565 posts)A New Wave to the bottom for the middle and working class.
lewebley3
(3,412 posts)going to be the nominee
bravenak
(34,648 posts)sublimecabbie
(14 posts)Is like the female opponent candidate in the movie Black Sheep. Go back and watch in wonder lol.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)Still voting for her
progressoid
(49,978 posts)bravenak
(34,648 posts)I am not emotionally involved with any candidate
progressoid
(49,978 posts)You might want to rethink that one.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)The rest are just politicians.
progressoid
(49,978 posts)bravenak
(34,648 posts)progressoid
(49,978 posts)Based on your posts, it would seem you are emotionally involved with at least one of the candidates. It's just that the emotion isn't love.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)w4rma
(31,700 posts)thesquanderer
(11,986 posts)...among those "who have voted or plan to vote in this years Democratic contests" - combined with the fact that MORE than 50% of the votes cast so far have been for Hillary -- means that either
(a) more than 50% of the votes yet to be cast will be for Bernie
OR
(b) people who have already voted for Hillary now wish they had voted for Bernie
OR
(c) people have voted (or intend to vote) for Hillary even though their first choice is Bernie
or some combination thereof.
Obviously, as a Bernie supporter, I hope it's more A than B or C!
bravenak
(34,648 posts)And they are doing an average of what they think the popular vote type totals will come out to be. I wish they would chill on taking it serious. We do it by delegates. I swear the polls are a hype fest.
thesquanderer
(11,986 posts)thesquanderer
(11,986 posts)That's true. Though due to proportional delegation, there should be a bit more correlation between popular vote and delegates than there would be in a winner-take-all scenario (as in some of the Republican contests, or the general).
According to RCP, among states that report popular vote figures, Hillary now has about 58% of the popular vote cast so far, and 57% of the delegates. So at least so far, the correlation seems pretty strong.
saidsimplesimon
(7,888 posts)"I wish we had more time".
We have the time we have. It's enough to open the hearts and minds of those yearning for politicians that remember they serve US, not the other way around.
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)With the decisive victory in UT and ID, and AZ being under investigation, things are looking up!
LiberalFighter
(50,880 posts)Gman
(24,780 posts)Not impossible but pretty unlikely.
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)After all, these are pro Bernie states we're talking about here. See you at the convention!
bravenak
(34,648 posts)I am just checking because you seem to not understand how this works. He would need 58 percent EVEN IN THE STATES SHE IS GOING TO WIN. Like Penn, and NY, and CA. You do get this, right?
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)bravenak
(34,648 posts)Because I know she will win and keep us safe from Trump.
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)bravenak
(34,648 posts)All the blame and no credit for anything. A woman's burden never ends, Lord.
Politicalboi
(15,189 posts)bravenak
(34,648 posts)I watched folks say it about SC.
MasonDreams
(756 posts)Translates to zero electoral votes. You know the votes that count. Al , Miss , La , Gore did not get Tenn. Think she can carry Arkansas?
Be honest, the game has rules.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)It just makes his case worse that she has brought out millions more than he
MasonDreams
(756 posts)for no change, or is it fear of the unknown.
It cannot be the policies or political philosophy because they're a changin'.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)Elmer S. E. Dump
(5,751 posts)I like to talk too!
bravenak
(34,648 posts)pnwmom
(108,976 posts)which is a large, diverse state -- not like the mostly-white, rural states that Bernie specializes in.
Bernie "should" win NY if he is to have any chance of overcoming her lead of more than 300 delegates -- but he won't.
Elmer S. E. Dump
(5,751 posts)pnwmom
(108,976 posts)But Bernie has to win an average of 58% of delegates from here on out just to tie.
http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_e6ef41f2113347feaedca7d88762c6f3.pdf
EMERSON POLL: TRUMP, CLINTON TROUNCING THEIR RIVALS IN NEW YORK; IN GENERAL ELECTION, HILLARY AND BERNIE LEAD THE DONALD
BOSTON, MA Buoyed by a string of decisive primary wins this past Tuesday, both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump hold a commanding lead in New York State, where a victory in the April 19 primary could effectively seal the presidential nomination for both candidates.
With Marco Rubio out of the race, Trump leads his closest rival, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, by 52 points (64% to 12%). Rubio received 4% of the vote before suspending his campaign. Ohio Governor John Kasich earned just 1%, getting no bounce from his recent home-field victory in the Buckeye State. In a hypothetical, two-man matchup between Trump and Cruz, Trump leads 69% to 25%.
In the Democratic primary, Clinton is ahead of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders by 48 points, taking 71% of the vote to Sanderss 23%. The former Secretary of State holds a massive advantage in key demographic groups, including men (66% to 29%), women (73% to 20%), African Americans (72% to 22%) and Hispanics (85% to 8%). Younger voters, ages 18-34, favor Sanders, but by a slimmer margin (53% to 40%) than in many primary states. Among all other age groups, Clinton dominates, leading by 45 points (ages 35-54), 50 points (ages 55-74), and 67 points (ages 75+).
Clinton and Sanders have similar favorability numbers with likely Democratic primary voters. Her favorable/unfavorable ratio is 82%/15% (+67); his is 63%/26% (+37). However Clinton garners far more loyalty: 85% of those who view her favorably plan to vote for her in the primary, while only 31% who have a favorable view of Sanders intend to vote for him.
Elmer S. E. Dump
(5,751 posts)You will be looking to split a gut, as will I. Let's see who's gut is still intact in a week from Tuesday.
Elmer S. E. Dump
(5,751 posts)We will see...
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)fun n serious
(4,451 posts)You don't know how it will go with more time.
LiberalElite
(14,691 posts)Who's tied with him? Who didn't see it coming because she's so obviously peerless?
Yeah. We don't know.
fun n serious
(4,451 posts)try and practice some kindness.
liberal N proud
(60,334 posts)Keep dreaming though!
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)liberal N proud
(60,334 posts)But as I said, keep dreaming!
PatrickforO
(14,570 posts)represents the issues I actually care about far better than Clinton does. Because, honestly, I think she's turned hard left because Sanders has forced the issue by talking about wealth inequality, single payer, etc.
A CNN commentator said she expects Clinton to 'pivot right' when the nomination is sewed up. When I heard this, I though, 'of course - because the Third Way Dems stopped representing people like me back in the late 80s.'
The problem is, I don't want a pivot right. I want single payer healthcare, stronger Social Security, free tuition at public colleges, aggressive policies around global warming, a renegotiation of the so-called 'free trade' treaties that have fucked the American people over (NAFTA, CAFTA, GATS, etc.), and basically the rest of Sander's platform.
Including the foreign policy, of course. I can remember thinking of America as 'the good guys' when I was a kid and then being sickened when I read Chomsky, Zinn and later Klein.
The bottom line is that Sanders is talking about issues that I care about a lot - kitchen table issues - things that if we can push through my life and the lives of my family would be a whole lot better.
Bernie's political revolution may well happen, win or lose.
Duval
(4,280 posts)libdem4life
(13,877 posts)Rebkeh
(2,450 posts)PatrickforO
(14,570 posts)those commissioned by an outfit like Bloomberg, Sanders support may now be outstripping Clinton support by a somewhat larger margin.
As Mike Shanahan used to tell the Bronco players when they seemed to be losing..."Lots of football left to play...lots of football."
Plucketeer
(12,882 posts)And if folks don't like the results of my writing, at least I'll be able to live with myself. Bernie has presented me with THE ONE chance to make a REAL and SUBSTANTIVE difference in my voting lifetime and I'm going to take it!
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)sammythecat
(3,568 posts)I've been enthusiastic about my vote before but it was always followed by disappointment. I'm even more enthusiastic this time but I feel absolutely certain that Bernie will not disappoint. He will not give up, lay down, or join in with TPTB. He never has in the past and won't do it after being elected. I trust him completely. Hillary Clinton...I don't trust her at all. Not even a little bit. I used to like Hillary, I wish I still could, but I can't, not at all. I'll write in Bernie Sanders in the general if he doesn't get the nomination.
DebbieCDC
(2,543 posts)I have to live with myself first and foremost.
desmiller
(747 posts)rhett o rick
(55,981 posts)sufrommich
(22,871 posts)Read the SOP for LBN before posting.
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)stonecutter357
(12,695 posts)libdem4life
(13,877 posts)deutsey
(20,166 posts)Last edited Thu Mar 24, 2016, 01:54 PM - Edit history (1)
and has had resistance from the Democratic Party every step of the way.
And yet, there he is.
arcane1
(38,613 posts)And here he is tied in a national poll.
THAT is why they hate him
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)TheDormouse
(1,168 posts)that despite Hillary's camp's, the Dem establishment's, the media's all attempting to rubberstamp her coronation, this far in Hillary still can't get over 50%
artyteacher
(598 posts)Still has her at 95% chance of winning the primary.
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)revbones
(3,660 posts)SoapBox
(18,791 posts)Every single day, every single minute...more AND more Americans learn about Bernie's Common Sense and MAINSTREAM platform.
It's not hard for them to reject a Wall Street, Big Money, Big Power, War Hawking, 1% other candidate.
GO Bernie!
GO Berners!
FreakinDJ
(17,644 posts)zentrum
(9,865 posts)run again.
snagglepuss
(12,704 posts)onehandle
(51,122 posts)It's unpossible!
lunamagica
(9,967 posts)still_one
(92,131 posts)Latest California poll, Hillary 48, Bernie 41.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ca/california_democratic_presidential_primary-5321.html
Latest Wisconsin poll, Hillary 50, Bernie 44.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_democratic_presidential_primary-3764.html
Presidential elections are determined by states, not by national polls, and for that reason national polls are flawed. However, since you are only pushing one particularly national poll, let me present the other national polls released in the same time frame to be fair
Latest National Polls:
Bloomberg:
Hillary 48, Bernie 49
Fox:
Hillary 55, Bernie 42
Quinnipiac:
Hillary 50, Bernie 38
Monmouth:
Hillary 55, Bernie 37
CBS News/NY Times:
Hillary 50, Bernie 45
CNN/ORC:
Hillary 55, Bernie 44
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html
zalinda
(5,621 posts)and Bernie for about a year? Seems that it shouldn't be that close.
Z
still_one
(92,131 posts)As for your other point, I was just addressing the OPs poll cherry picking
I stand by my original comment regarding national polls
Roland99
(53,342 posts)That said, Sanders does lead all GOP opponents by much larger margins than Clinton in the General Election.
To me, that says the sizable "independents" will swing for Sanders and/or the millenials will hold off voting in the General.
ejbr
(5,856 posts)Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)She has massive leads in the late April and May states.
All other polls have her ahead by an average of 16%.
Hillary will be the next President.
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)thereismore
(13,326 posts)Heh, heh. Hillary is a lousy candidate.
paulthompson
(2,398 posts)I posted in the Primaries forum that, if this Bloomberg poll is accurate, Sanders actually has about 59% support in the non-South states, and all the South states have voted already.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511566136
So it's still a longshot, but he has a chance.
Beacool
(30,247 posts)Barring some unforeseen event, Hillary will be the nominee and give Trump a run for his money.
The rest is just white noise.
TheDormouse
(1,168 posts)Better temperament to be president 51-39 Clinton-Sanders
Has the most appropriate life experience to be president 60-31
Knows the most about how to get things done 58-32
Would be better at managing the economy 50-40
Can best combat Islamic terrorism 65-21
but
Cares the most about people like you 33-59
Is the most honest and trustworthy 25-64
Will fight hardest for the middle-class 30-62
Will do the most to rein in the power of Wall St 31-64
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)distinction I see between them.
TheDormouse
(1,168 posts)people like you and are not that honest and trustworthy
So a candidate who isn't thought to be particularly honest and trustworthy and who isn't expected to fight for the middle-class and people like you and against Wall St would be someone that a person could picture more easily as president.
BillZBubb
(10,650 posts)noretreatnosurrender
(1,890 posts)My head and my heart are in sync on this one.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)LiberalElite
(14,691 posts)on the way to the coronation.
Zira
(1,054 posts)I kept reading how Sander's supporters couldn't vote at all because caucuses were out of voting forms.
Poor Hillary. She probably has to spend all her time re-assuring her Corporate masters.
Go Bernie!
thereismore
(13,326 posts)Metric System
(6,048 posts)bravenak
(34,648 posts)Sorry SC voters. A real progressive wants to nullify your vote because they think not enough if you voted.
Metric System
(6,048 posts)cosmicone
(11,014 posts)to see if what you're cooking is DONE.
bkkyosemite
(5,792 posts)Not buying it.
Loki
(3,825 posts)How many polls did you go through to find this one oh mighty bubzer? Anything for a laugh right?
spooky3
(34,438 posts)To represent the entire nation.
The MOE is a YUUUUGE 5.6 percentage points.
Not a credible poll.
apnu
(8,754 posts)The Primary is about state delegates and super-delegates. Everything else is a side show.
AuntPatsy
(9,904 posts)rtracey
(2,062 posts)All the anti-Hillary, anti-Bernie.... right wingers are salivating at this, these responses on this tread sounds like trump/cruz, or trump/rubio.....Im not voting for..... blah, blah, blah, zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz..... just think of Trump on the capital steps, tiny hands on the Bible, lying, saying he will defend the constitution, and think about the supreme court nominee and the senate, house that will finally get the ACA sunk..... so scream and shout all you want.... not me I support my party, I'm not a DINO
The nominations will tell the story won't they....
Babel_17
(5,400 posts)Thanks for posting this, it was news to me.
billhicks76
(5,082 posts)By very wide margin. Sanders thus a no brainer.
Ash_F
(5,861 posts)Time and name recognition. And lack of media exposure.
Major Hogwash
(17,656 posts)She has literally taken every side on every issue over the last 2 years, so she can not be trusted.
She has the highest unfavorable rating of any candidate running for the office of President.
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)Exactly right!
ladjf
(17,320 posts)Zira
(1,054 posts)PatrynXX
(5,668 posts)and if she keeps winning by 20 delegates at a time and 500 delegates come up to pull the finger I would love to know why Cali was bumped to near last.
dlwickham
(3,316 posts)It's not some great conspiracy
PatrynXX
(5,668 posts)why was it bumped to 2008 to Super Tuesday? and she won it. Not really looking for some great conspiracy. but a DWS fail. and she needs to be fired she's an anchor stuck at the bottom of the ocean ruining this Caucus/primary season.
MrMickeysMom
(20,453 posts)Can you imagine if we had FAIR election conditions and didn't try these tactics?
c-ville rook
(45 posts)... if the results of this poll is near correct.
No matter who wins, in order to win the GE, some deals will have to be made.
Bernie has too many votes to ignore at this point. And while I prefer Bernie to Hillary, if he is the nominee, it would be more true that Hillary could not be denied.
And if a significant amount of either candidates' people "stay at home" or go "third party" it could well give us President Donald.
So, why is everyone yelling over what is going to have to happen?
I will say this to Hillary supporters -- as she is likely to be the nominee at this point just by the numbers -- they are not doing their candidate any favors by attacking Bernie and his supporters. I say that not because I support Bernie but because she is quickly approaching a level where she is almost without question the Democratic nominee and she is going to need "Bernie Bro.s" support in the GE or she is going home too.
And really President Trump -- do you want to say that for 4 years? And have listen to how we are going to be "winning" Presidential addresses when it is more likely we will be watching the last Presidential addresses like its a Charlie Sheen clone on crank giving them. Sorry, Charlie for all you foibles you do not deserve that -- at least you have the good sense not to run for President just because you have been on TV. Tiger blood!
As for the Democratic Party establishment, including HC and John Lewis, they do no credit to their credibility when they accuse Bernie of not being around for big and usually very progressive moments when he is standing in the pictures with them. They need to stop that as well -- for obvious reasons.
blackspade
(10,056 posts)But things are looking up!
George II
(67,782 posts)Total as of today: 14,776,116
Clinton 8,736,831
Sanders 6,039,285
Clinton +2,697,546
Evenly split?
rtracey
(2,062 posts)The last laugh will show its face.... Polls...hmmmm I remember a guy, his name was Dick Morris, and his poll showed a complete and utterly devastating defeat of President Obama in 2012.... Romney was a complete walk in. No one was every going to give Obama a second term..... yeah polls......... BS.... the only poll worth its weight now will be the final poll when they ask did you vote for the winner?
NorthCarolina
(11,197 posts)whereas Sanders is capturing not only Independents, but some Republicans as well. The choice of Clinton as the Standard bearer fro the Democratic party is the political equivalent of suicide.
stupidicus
(2,570 posts)supporters that they are.
jalan48
(13,859 posts)The more people become educated about him and what he stands for the better he does.