Obama, Romney in virtual tie in polls; numbers static since April

[villager]

Source: Detroit Free Press

WASHINGTON -- Since mid-April, the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline has dropped nearly 40 cents. President Barack Obama has announced support for same-sex marriage. Government statisticians have delivered two disappointing monthly jobs reports. Tensions have ebbed and flowed with Iran. And Mitt Romney has clinched the Republican presidential nomination.

And the presidential polls? Flat-lined.

Contradicting reams of punditry, national polls have not moved an inch amid those events -- not to mention the lesser political battles that have animated cable news programs. In Gallup's daily polling, to take one example, Romney and Obama were tied 46%-46% on April 11. Two months later, the poll had Obama up one point, 46%-45%, a statistically identical result. For more than seven weeks, neither candidate's standing has moved more than 3 percentage points -- well within the poll's margin of error.

Instead of a race, the campaign for president has turned into something more closely resembling trench warfare: dug-in armies, intense exchanges of fire, no movement.

The lack of movement is problematic for Obama. Both candidates, of course, would like to have broken free by now. But for Romney, just keeping Obama below 50% counts as an advantage, on the assumption that a majority of late deciders are more likely to vote against the incumbent.

By contrast, many Democratic strategists had hoped that by now Obama would have started to build a lead over the Republican, whom they derided earlier this year as a weak nominee with little popularity even within his own part

Read more: http://www.freep.com/article/20120617/NEWS07/206170581/Obama-Romney-in-virtual-tie-in-polls-numbers-static-since-April

[still_one]

1. A lot of the problem is Democrats do not fight back. The republicans have said social

Security and Medicare are the main reason for our financial problems, yet I don't hear Democrats refute that. The problem is that the real problems are the trillions spent for the wars, and congress stealing from the social security fund to finance those wars and tax breaks for the 1%

Unless the Democrats start fighting hard they will lose

When they passed the HCR in 2010 Democrats didn't defend it, in fact ran away from it

unless Democrat show they stand for something how can they inspire people?

[RBInMaine]

12. Then you haven't been LISTENING. Obama and Dems have defended Medicare and SS over and over again.

[RBInMaine]

14. Ron Barber just won in AZ largely due to fighting for SS and Medicare and making those the issue.

[former9thward]

44. Not really.

Issues were not important in that race. Barber won because he had the endorsement of Giffords and people sympathized with all of what she has gone through. Plus Barber himself had been shot.

[RBInMaine]

53. BS ! Those weren't the only reasons at all. If the Dem didn't campaign right he would have LOST.

Yes, Barber got a sympathy vote, but it is also a district where Obama is down against Romney and which has 25,000 more Pukes than D's.
Barber did win it pretty decisively, but with about 52%. That isn't a huge margin. Decent, but by no means a landslide. The RePuke still got about 46% of the vote, even as a TeaNut. (The green party guy got 2%.)

The Dems ran a strong groundgame and hammered away at the TeaPuke's anti-Medicare and anti-SS statements and made those the two biggest issues.

PERFECT on both positive and negative messages and a strong door to door and phonebank groundgame. Had Barber NOT done all that, sympathy alone would NEVER have allowed him to win. Voters are not that simplistic.

[former9thward]

54. We can all draw a picture of any election.

But nobody really knows what is in any voter's mind when they vote. There are dozens maybe hundreds of reasons why voters make the choice they do. I have my view and you have yours.

[RBInMaine]

57. To assume Barber's campaign work was meaningless and to attribute the win just to a sympathy vote

shows you have very little or no experience working on a political campaign and have little to no understanding of how you win a political campaign. No personal offense intended, but that is just obvious.

[former9thward]

61. I have been involved in political campaigns since I was 14.

That was 48 years ago. I have ran for elective office three times with one win. The other two times were "suicide"runs where the party wanted someone on the ballot even though it was a hopeless race. I have been involved in the management of political campaigns at both the local and state level. I will match my experience with yours any day of the week. And yes I know anyone on the internet can say anything. All I know is that anyone who knows me and they read your post they would have a good chuckle.

[pocoloco]

23. Money for wimps?? Votes for wimps???

LOL

[JaneQPublic]

2. The Electoral Map tells a different story

From Real Clear Politics:

http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Obama - 221
Romney - 170
Toss Ups - 147

[DCBob]

3. Yes... national polls are misleading. The election is determined state by state.

and the states that matter are leaning Obama.

[Marzupialis]

24. Can you list the "states that matter"

So i can take a look at the electoral map above, to see whether they are leaning Obama or not?

[DCBob]

31. see Demwing's post below..

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014145737#post26

[hrmjustin]

49. Not all of them.

WI and MI scare me at the moment

[DCBob]

50. I think most polling shows WI and MI safe.

The "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt" ads in October will seal the deal there.

[cindyperry2010]

22. been saying that for months

[demwing]

26. Look at these 5 "Toss Up" States: MI, NH, NV, WI, VA

MI - Obama by 5.4% (16 EC)
NH - Obama by 6.4% (4 EC)
NV - Obama by 5.3% (6 EC)
WI - Obama by 3.4% (10 EC)
VA - Obama by 3.0% (13 EC)
_________________________

TOTAL -------------- (49 EC)

49 + 221 = 270

and that's a magic number

(BTW - that's assuming Obama doesn't win the any of the 3 traditional "swing" states - FL, IA, OH...)

[Igel]

38. Perhaps.

"...the assumption that a majority of late deciders are more likely to vote against the incumbent...." is a common one.

100% of the vote cast will be cast. But most of the toss-up states have an "undecided" percentage that's twice the difference between 50% and Obama's poll numbers.

45-47 leaves 8 percentage points undecided. The final result could be 53-47 or 45-55 (unlikely, 100% of the undecideds breaking for one side). Or anything in between. We don't know.

But in reality we're only 95% sure that the numbers are within a few points of 45 and 47 or 8. 45 and 47 might just as easily be a tie. Or a clear win for Obama. Again, can't tell.

It's fine to be absolutely certain. Let's just be clear, though: certainty in the absence of supporting data is called "belief." Many scientists have beliefs. Good ones tend to keep them a bit removed from their analyses, however. Einstein had beliefs about physics. Usually he was right. But only "usually."

Then again, you do call 270 the "magic number".

[demwing]

41. Which is why Obama has such an interesting challenge

He has to be the incumbent, running as the challenger. To do this, he has to tie Romney to Bush (easy enough, Romney already makes that case himself), and make the case that the Republicans still have not learned the lessons of the economic crash.

Obama has to convince America that both parties are determined to complete what they started in 2008 - Building a middle class economy that carries the country w/ the Dems, or building an Upper Crust economy that buries the country w/ the Reps. It won't be enough to sing the "Stay the course" chorus, Bush the Elder sang that tune and lost. We have to be given a clear choice between "Tomorrow" and "Yesterday" luckily, the President has already started just such a conversation.

But he also needs to speak on this subject at a 5th or 6th grade level. I look forward to the Convention, and the debates. The reaction to those venues is where you'll understand what direction the country is about to travel.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

45. 221's still not enough

Then again, I don't really buy that Wisconsin and Michigan are toss ups.

[FailureToCommunicate]

4. And poison gas.

"...the campaign for president has turned into something more closely resembling trench warfare: dug-in armies, intense exchanges of fire, no movement."


We could also blame FOX/hate radio and...Facebook/gadgets for the ignorance

Bread and circus

[Shadowflash]

5. I don't believe it.

the national media have a vested interest in keeping this contest a horse race and that's exactly what they are doing.

I'm not buying this for a second.

[scubadude]

6. All the media has to do is keep hammering away, creating plausible denyablity.

So, when the exit polls predict an Obama win, but the "vote" adds up to a Romney win, the media has it covered and the ruse can continue. It is the perception that matters. This has been done on numerous occasions, and the people are just too preoccupied with making a living to pay attention. We now live in a country where mantra "both parties are the same" is believed. As long as it is so, no change will occur, especially when the Citizens United decision ultimately forces the Democrats to play ball and succumb to corporate dominance or wither up and die.

Scuba

[INdemo]

11. In 2010 several "projected winners" were called

in the Congressional race as a result of exit polls...In 2004 however the media proclaimed exit polls were not accurate(Ohio results) and it appears that here in 2012 the media will use the same excuses to ignore exit polls........
Could it be that we are being set up for another election theft?There are several more states for the corporate mafia to use for their targets of election fraud......

[DeeDeeNY]

17. Well stated

When they aren't looking for any "gaffes" to pounce on, the media keeps harping on how the jobs picture is not good and this will make Obama a weak candidate. The corporate media has the power to change perceptions, and that's enough for all the people who aren't paying attention.

[Kahuna]

7. Bill Clinton, Corey Booker and Ed Rendell, hijacking Obama's message and

practically swooning over Rmoney and Bain hasn't helped matters. I hope they realize the harm they have done.

[liberal N proud]

8. Bullshit - they are setting it up to steal another election.

Anyone who doesn't believe that can stand by and it will happen.

[fasttense]

10. You are right liberal

They are setting it up to rig the election yet again. If the rigged machines can't count Mitt into the White House, then the criminals on the Supreme Court can in a 5 to 4 decision.

They have done it before, and will do it again.

[goclark]

20. Ditto!

There is no way in hell they are neck in neck

The fix is in ~ It's not anything that Obama is doing wrong.

It's what they are doing RIGHT --- voter suppression,
Dirty tricks, PAC dirty money and showing us that they OWN America.


What we Democrtats are doing wrong is that we are sitting back and not following the work of the OCCUPY movement -- WE must OCCUPY their space like our brave foot soldiers did --- speak out loudly and boldly against them.

[bowens43]

9. anyone who thinks that this will be an easy win

is naive. I have been saying this all along. Romney can beat Obama. Romney is the only candidate they had who could win this thing.This is going to be a very tough fight. It will be very close.

The polls are probably accurate. Obama is despised by a large percentage of people who are highly motivated to remove him from office.

To win , we need to fight every day.

[RBInMaine]

13. First, we don't need paranoia. Next, polls now don't mean much. Finally, Obama most likely wins.

[demwing]

29. As much as I want to agree

I can't.

1. This isn't paranoia, it's justified concern. Paranoia is defined as "an unfounded or exaggerated distrust of others." Nothing being said is unfounded, nor exaggerated. Pretending otherwise is dangerous.

2. Polls do mean something - they give candidates some clues where their support is strong and where it is weak, and allows them to adjust campaign spending accordingly. More importantly, polls reinforce opinions and actions - people like to support a winner (even a falsely presumed winner). It makes them feel smarter.

3. Obama might win, but not because we sit around singing Bob Marley songs (don't worry about a thing...every little thing gonna be alright!). Obama can win if we fight back, donate, organize, and vote - but it won't be easy. We are trying to climb the Everest of political peaks-Citizen's United and the mountain range of cash that followed. This goes back to point #1 (This isn't paranoia, it's justified concern...).

[AzDar]

15. I simply do not believe this...look at rally attendance and/or voter enthusiasm.

But again, this neck-and-neck bullshit narrative makes me nervous that we'll have a repeat of 2004.

edited for: typing while blind.

[bonniebgood]

18. I don't believe this crap poll either

with the war on women, minorities, gays and social security and on and on
the polls are tied? a capital BULL SHIT. We are being set-up.

[underpants]

19. MSM is trying to pile on Obama that is clear

no matter what happens it is all negative and will be until election day

[Iliyah]

21. BULLSHIT

Obama will win and win by a large enough margin wherein the goppers can't steal it like in 2000 and 2004.

And with all this negativity and constant bashing by the corporation media, hate radio, super duper gop pacs (which I know the negative advertisements hasn't yet begun full force) and which I believe will backfire on the GOP, and lying goppers including liar Mitt, y'think Mittens will be ahead and yet he's not.

He's got the minority vote, women's vote, the Jewish vote, and a sizable voting block of white males, including the young folk, so yeah, as I recently read and truly believe, the corporate want a so called close race in order for make profit money, and has and will lie about the closest of the race as well as the pollsters which are all in it together.

Mittens and crew do know the true polling as well as Pres O but Pres O and crews don't want to appear too confident.

[Baitball Blogger]

25. Wake me up when it's anyone but Gallup.

[demwing]

30. Or Rasmussen /nt

[Baitball Blogger]

35. They're just trying to get it close to five a Repub a chance to steal the

election.

[rocktivity]

27. HIT PIECE ALERT!!!

Premature ejaculation: They know perfectly well the the real campaigning doesn't begin until after the conventions.

GET THEE BEYOND ME, POLLS!



UNCLEAN! UNCLEAN!!!


rocktivity

[patrice]

28. The President needs to talk directly to lower economic class Whites. The racism we are seeing

may be more about some people feeling left out by all of the excitement amongst non-Whites and various "elites". Now that women are on the rise, lower economic class white males in particular are probably feeling assaulted all around. This isn't necessary, but no one is showing them that it isn't. They think they are left out.

[demwing]

33. This is where Uncle Joe will earn his stripes

he's an antidote to the white middle class male's drift to the right

[patrice]

34. I am praying for him. Sat nam!

[demwing]

36. I bow to Truth

namaste

[patrice]

40. in grateful service . . .

Wah guru!

[treestar]

32. OH please,. why is this any advantage to Rmoney?

They are desperate the way they will spin it. If they are even, they are problematic for Rmoney as well as Obama. There is no assumption that late deciders will vote against the incumbent.

It's only June and the debates haven't happened yet.

Amazing how they will go out of their way to spin everything to Rmoney's advantage.

The gas prices are still going down. Why is that not a problem for Rmoney when their going up was a problem for Obama?

[emulatorloo]

39. Agreed. It is summer and lots of people won't pay close attention until September

That being said, it is gonna be close, and we need to work hard on GOTV.

[Fgiriun]

37. Is this a nation of masochists?

It is striking and difficult to grasp how regular middle class and poor people could back a wealthy capitalist to lead a country. Obviously, the rich generally gravitate toward one of their own, someone who will uphold their selfish interest over the good of the nation. But why does the working class and the marginalized support someone that clearly is against their best interest? I conclude that we live in a nation of masochists who would see our entire existence collapse in order to remain ignorant and spiteful toward others who share the same struggle.
Just imagine what further tax cuts and deregulation, both financial and environmental, will do to this country. We all know who benefits from those.

[newspeak]

60. Well, even though there were enough election anomalies-little boots made it to president twice

By the second term, after bullying, lying us into war, the big pharma-screw seniors giveaway-who'd thought that this country had so many ignorant people as to make it close the second time. And since little boots thought daddy would have won if he'd only started another war; because, after all, the clueless american people just love spending their money on war and having their family members die for a lie. And that in a nutshell, is what the rich and infamous think about the plebes-cannon fodder (words from kissenger) and cluelessly gullible. It helps when they've got a fabricating, right wing propaganda spewing network like faux to keep the gullible clueless in line.

[quaker bill]

42. McSame had it all tied up

in fact the polls showed him a bit ahead for a few weeks.... WE know how that turned out.

[thelordofhell]

43. Gotta keep that Citizen's United money flowing to the media

Thanks Supreme Court Of The United States

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

46. In theory, Romney should be leading

If things are so bad.....and he's coming off a primary.......he should be ahead......

Instead, once America gets a good long look at this guy......he's toast.

[Beacool]

47. Regardless of party, anyone presiding over this lousy economy would have problems

come reelection time. That was to be expected.

[DonCoquixote]

51. I am sure Hillary would to

If she was elected in 2008. If Mitt wins, kiss 2016 hopes for her goodbye, as I am sure that Mitt and Rove will happily arrange an "accident" for the Clintons, much to the cheers of many of the same people that claimed to support them in 2008, including her good friend John MCCain.

[Beacool]

52. What's your point?

What does Hillary have to do with this? I clearly said "anyone", that would have included Hillary.

Gee.......

[judesedit]

48. Is this the beginning of propaganda so we buy it when they steal another election????

Much contrary to what has been stated recently. It's funny, I've NEVER been polled. This is called brainwashing as far as I'm concerned. Don't buy into it people. Just keep helping other people get registered to vote. With the GOP's gerry-mandering of the districts and making it as difficult as possible for the majority of Americans to vote, we just have to fight that much harder to win. If we have the numbers get out and vote, they won't be able to steal it.

Better yet..does someone out there have an idea of how we can vote only once that's secure? Please speak up if you do. Foreign money is being funnelled in to buy this election...as usual. But it's more to our detriment now. Let's show them it's not so easy.

[scubadude]

59. It's might bee too late.

We lost when George Bush beat Al Gore. The media at that time denied the exit polls giving Gore the win, and thusly set us up for the future of American elections. Without impartial counting and the belief that exit polls are accurate, elections may be gerrymandered in so many ways and there is no method to prove them wrong...

[nanabugg]

55. You know something is wrong with polling when Mitt is tied with Obama.

I just can't believe that many voters hate themselves enough to vote for Mitt.

[hrmjustin]

56. Too many polls!!!

And will be close till the end.

[Freddie Stubbs]

58. Jobs

That is what this election is going to be about. If voters think that the employment situation is improving, Obama wins.