Dem Race Tightens in California as Clinton Barely Leads Sanders 49% to 47%: Poll

[Babel_17]

Source: NBC News

Hillary Clinton is clinging to a narrow two-point lead over Bernie Sanders in California ahead of the state's June 7 primary, according to results from a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll.

Clinton gets support from 49 percent of likely Democratic primary voters in the state, while Sanders gets 47 percent, which is within the survey's statistical margin of error.

And among a wider electorate of all potential Democratic voters in California, Sanders is actually ahead by one point, 48 percent to 47 percent.

Clinton and Sanders running even in California wouldn't affect the overall delegate math in the Democratic race, where Clinton leads Sanders by some 270 pledged delegates and 770 overall delegates. (A tied race would essentially split the state's 475 pledged delegates right down the middle under the Democrats' proportional allocation system.)

Read more: http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/it-s-close-california-clinton-49-sanders-47-n584141

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More at the link: http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/it-s-close-california-clinton-49-sanders-47-n584141

[Roy Rolling]

1. Just a sincere question

A few days ago, I read that Hillary was ahead by 13 percentage points. How was it 13 them and 2 now?

Are polls biased? People misquoting polls? I didn't look at the nuts and bolts of the poll and only now am wondering WTF is going on with reports of polls.

[geek tragedy]

2. polls in primary contests aren't terribly accurate

they can give a rough sense--we know that Sanders isn't winning by 20, for example--but we don't know what the story is until people vote.

even the same pollster using the same methodology will get different results if they do the same poll twice, just due to random variation in the sample they get

[Babel_17]

3. People aren't inundated with information during primary season like they are for the GE

I also think that a voter in a primary has a different process in making up their mind, and deciding whether or not to vote.

We all know that our Democratic candidates are for better schools, a cleaner environment, an end to discrimination, "less guns, more butter", women's reproductive rights, more access to medical care, and all of the other critical issues. But there is still choice, and it's not as simple as choosing between people who are polar opposites on issues that are important to the voter.

Both campaigns are pretty good at explaining why they are better on these issues. It really does take time to wade through their arguments, and what looks persuasive today can look less so tomorrow.

Sorry if those sounds like mere platitudes, but imo politics often comes down to that.

[RealAmericanDem]

4. As usual California will be irrelevant.

Hillary will have it wrapped up with New Jersey and New Mexico. California dems should work to move up their primary.

[FailureToCommunicate]

5. Come on Golden State! Feel the Bern! This calls for a boost...

...in contributions!



http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=forum&id=1280

[wisteria]

6. Clinton will win.

I am not worried about these polls.

[still_one]

7. I think the race will be within a 10 point spread, and it won't be enough for Sanders. He would

have to win by 30-35%, and that isn't going to happen

[Angel Martin]

8. Hillary's pollster

[DCBob]

9. Which further guarantees Hillary wins the nomination.

[Babel_17]

11. If getting nominated and elected was only about winning primaries,

what a different history we would have. The message of Senator Sanders campaign resonating so strongly in such a state as California, at this stage of the game, is huge news, and full of import to our party.

I hope they are listening!