Brexit Camp Is Ahead in Fifth U.K. Opinion Poll in 24 Hours

[Purveyor]

Source: Bloomberg

The campaign for Britain to leave the European Union led in a fifth opinion poll published over the past 24 hours, showing Prime Minister David Cameron is foundering in his efforts to persuade voters to reject a so-called Brexit. The pound fell to a two-month low.

The online survey of 2,497 adults carried out by TNS June 7-13 found 47 percent backing “Leave” and 40 percent for “Remain.” It comes after four phone and online surveys released Monday by ICM, YouGov Plc and ORB showed leads of between 1 point and 7 points.

With the June 23 referendum now just over a week away, Repeated warnings of the economic risks of a Brexit have failed to sway voters. Cameron has kept a low profile this week to allow the opposition Labour Party to make a series of interventions in an attempt to persuade their supporters, who are crucial to the outcome, of the merits of continued EU membership. In a further blow to the premier, Britain’s biggest-selling newspaper, The Sun, came out in favor of “Leave.”

“I’m sensing real momentum for ‘Leave’ around the country,” U.K. Independence Party leader Nigel Farage said on Twitter. “We can win this and get our country back!”

Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-14/latest-brexit-poll-shows-7-point-lead-for-leave

[still_one]

1. rupert murdock supports the brexit, so I have to take a second look

[DonCoquixote]

2. what 40 years of cold war could not do

Putin does by throwing money around. Europe is dead, by it's own hand.

[bemildred]

4. EU confirms Juncker to meet Putin in Russia next week

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin during an economic forum in St. Petersburg next week, an EU spokeswoman said on Friday.

Confirming the EU chief executive's schedule for the coming week at a news briefing, the spokeswoman said Juncker would, as previously announced, attend the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on Thursday and Friday and that while there he would hold his first meeting with Putin since November 2014.

Relations between Moscow and the European Union have been strained since an EU move to bring Ukraine into a trade pact and Russia's annexation of Crimea and support for rebels in eastern Ukraine. Mutual sanctions have been in force for two years and EU leaders are likely to roll over their measures.

Juncker has argued for better relations with Russia and said in October that EU policy on the matter should not be "dictated" by Washington. On Friday, the spokeswoman said Juncker had made clear that his visit to Russia would not change the EU's stance.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-eu-russia-idUSKCN0YW17F

[bemildred]

9. Stocks fall, Bund yields go negative on Brexit fears

Safe-haven German Bund yields fell below zero on Tuesday for the first time and global equity markets slid for a fourth day running on rising worries about a potential British exit from the European Union.

Polls and bookmakers' odds showed a growing chance a Brexit vote will prevail in the June 23 referendum. Britain's largest tabloid newspaper, the Sun, also said it was backing a "Leave" vote.

The 10-year Bund yield DE10YT=TWEB fell as low as minus 0.032 percent, which effectively means investors are paying to lend money to the German government for a full decade.

U.S. Treasury yields fell to four-month lows on Brexit fears as investors pared lingering expectations the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates in coming months. A two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was set to begin Tuesday.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets-idUSKCN0Z001Z

[bemildred]

10. German budget surplus twice as high as expected

The German Finance Ministry has reported a 2015 budget surplus that's twice as high as originally envisaged. It said the good news was attributable most of all to record-high tax revenues and one-off effects.

Germany logged a budget surplus of 12.1 billion euros ($13.1 billion) in 2015, the finance ministry announced Wednesday. In a recent forecast, the ministry had penciled in only 6.1 billion euros.

Officials said the unexpected scope of the surplus could be explained by strong tax revenues that turned out to be a lot higher than expected as unemployment in the country remained at record-low levels.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble said he planned to use the 2015 surplus to fund costs associated with the ongoing influx of refugees.

http://www.dw.com/en/german-budget-surplus-twice-as-high-as-expected/a-18975399

[NWCorona]

3. It's definitely going to be interesting to see what happens.

[2naSalit]

5. I have mixed feelings about this

but I have felt for some time now that the EU was a mistake. I was studying French culture and current issues just prior to the installation of the EU and wondered whether it would be a good or bad thing, currently I am not in favor of it. It'll be interesting to see what happens.

[Sen. Walter Sobchak]

6. This is what national suicide looks like

Britain needs the EU a whole hell of a lot more than the EU needs Britain, and the French and Germans will do everything in their power to make this as painful and humiliating for the UK as possible.

The exodus of business from the UK and into Europe is going to look like the invasion of Normandy.

[BooScout]

7. From conversations in the pub on Friday....

It's running about 3 to 1 to exit. The people are mad and voting their anger. I'm against it, but since I don't have British citizenship, I don't get a vote. The FTSE is not taking the idea of an exit well.

As late as a week ago, I would have thought the vote would go to staying in.....now I just don't see it happening.

[Purveyor]

11. There is a global mindset of its citizens to break the status-quo both abroad and here at home.

Any ones guess as to what will happen between now and Nov...

[840high]

13. Good - about time.

[Purveyor]

14. Can't disagree. Should be an interesting ride, indeed. eom

[BooScout]

16. Uh no....

No global minndset involved at all on this. An isolationist mindset maybe, but not a global one of beating the 'status quo'.

I also question how many people opining in the pub will even bother to vote.....at least one I talked to admitted not bothering to register.

[whatthehey]

15. But like here, if pubgoers were the electorate it would be a Trump landslide

As a frequent bar stool warmer myself, the jingoistic, nuance lacking, angry white male viewpoint is more common in the bar than outside it, and an echo chamber often results. That's from years in both US and UK bars of various stripes. The remain vote is likely much quieter. I'll pretty much guarantee exit underperforms these recent polls as far as margin goes, but it doesn't really have to win by 7 or 10, it just has to win. I wouldn't be willing to bet on that for much more than beer money one way or the other.

[BooScout]

17. I'm hoping you're right....

....and I'm hoping we stay in.

[mwrguy]

8. Obama should address them again

[pampango]

12. Trump and the European far-right are ready to celebrate. Barack, Bernie and Hillary - not so much.

British unions will be unhappy. Their corporations and financial sector will probably be just fine.

[muriel_volestrangler]

18. Bookies still have 'remain' as the favourite, but odds are lengthening

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result?selectionName=leave
http://predictwise.com/politics/uk-politics

PredictWise puts it at 61% Remain, 39% Leave. That's down from 68% a month ago.