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Stuart G

(38,419 posts)
Thu Jun 23, 2016, 09:42 AM Jun 2016

Jobless Claims Sink To Near 43 Year Low

Source: Reuters.com

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell last week to near a 43-year low, suggesting labor market resilience even though hiring slowed sharply in May.

The drop in jobless claims could give Federal Reserve officials more confidence that job growth will pick up.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen told lawmakers on Tuesday that the U.S. central bank believed the slowdown in non-farm payroll gains was "transitory," noting that "several other timely indicators of labor market conditions still look favorable."

"Overall labor market conditions are not as bad as one might assume based on May's non-farm payroll print alone," said Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors in Kalamazoo, Michigan.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits declined 18,000 to a seasonally adjusted 259,000 for the week ended June 18, the Labor Department said on Thursday


Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-jobless-idUSKCN0Z91CB



While incomes have not gone up enough (or at all for many). there are jobs out there
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Jobless Claims Sink To Near 43 Year Low (Original Post) Stuart G Jun 2016 OP
This numbers are all manipulated!! Silver_Witch Jun 2016 #1
The "true picture" is large and complex bhikkhu Jun 2016 #3
Well, in California, there are TONS of available jobs where I am at. padfun Jun 2016 #5
Well let's see whatthehey Jun 2016 #6
Okay, you have the facts on your side jiminvegas Jun 2016 #13
That is funny...you use BLS to support your point of view. Silver_Witch Jun 2016 #38
I dont know where you live padfun Jun 2016 #41
Cost of Living - Thanks for reminding me. mahatmakanejeeves Jun 2016 #42
Where do you live where milk is $6 a gallon? TwilightZone Jun 2016 #49
$5.49 a gsallons at Safeway in San Diego Ca today Silver_Witch Jun 2016 #52
$4.50 is not $6.00 TwilightZone Jun 2016 #53
Wow that is your response??? Silver_Witch Jun 2016 #54
Your anecdotal evidence vs. real data TwilightZone Jun 2016 #55
You had me at "anecdotal" rock Jun 2016 #83
This is getting to the absurd GummyBearz Jun 2016 #2
I have to agree with the report padfun Jun 2016 #7
You have a california flag GummyBearz Jun 2016 #8
Those are the lowest jobs padfun Jun 2016 #14
At least you are adding in all the qualifiers now GummyBearz Jun 2016 #15
Yes, we all have to do that. padfun Jun 2016 #20
Thank you for the good wishes GummyBearz Jun 2016 #24
You do realize there are people who can't afford education - Right? Silver_Witch Jun 2016 #39
Neither could I padfun Jun 2016 #40
As for San Diego and SF padfun Jun 2016 #21
$45K is livable in Sac? Throd Jun 2016 #78
Just about any of the South Area, and North Highlands padfun Jun 2016 #79
If you're single and don't mind having your car broken into from time to time. Throd Jun 2016 #80
Doesn't that mean this is even BETTER news? Android3.14 Jun 2016 #9
My point was GummyBearz Jun 2016 #11
Oh, I see what the issue is. mahatmakanejeeves Jun 2016 #16
You're confusing initial claims with total unemployed Recursion Jun 2016 #26
Ok. Call it initial claims GummyBearz Jun 2016 #29
Because the economy today is much better than it was in the 1970s Recursion Jun 2016 #33
ROFL GummyBearz Jun 2016 #34
Feel free to post an actual metric by which things are worse than the past (and there are a couple) Recursion Jun 2016 #35
Excuse me? OrwellwasRight Jun 2016 #56
I'll bite: when was 2% unemployment considered full employment? Recursion Jun 2016 #58
That's not any thing I am familiar with until this century OrwellwasRight Jun 2016 #59
OECD went as high as 8% in the 1980s Recursion Jun 2016 #60
My recollection was that people were desperate in the 1980s OrwellwasRight Jun 2016 #61
At any rate, my original point stands that by historical measures 4.9% is "low" Recursion Jun 2016 #62
Good for you. OrwellwasRight Jun 2016 #63
Well, I'm certainly glad people are objectively better off than they were 20 years ago Recursion Jun 2016 #64
The thing is, they aren't. OrwellwasRight Jun 2016 #65
The thing is they are. Recursion Jun 2016 #66
again, actually not OrwellwasRight Jun 2016 #67
That agrees with me Recursion Jun 2016 #68
perhaps you don't understand the chart OrwellwasRight Jun 2016 #69
And I agree that happened, and I'm still right Recursion Jun 2016 #70
You are arguing that 2011 to present OrwellwasRight Jun 2016 #71
Not at all. We're talking about two different time frames Recursion Jun 2016 #72
Still no data? OrwellwasRight Jun 2016 #73
Happily. Here's from BLS, though it's just the lowest three white and African American quintiles Recursion Jun 2016 #74
Did I hear Republicans saying "Marxist Kenyan" for 8 years? Did tRump say something like that? Bernardo de La Paz Jun 2016 #4
I look around and see lots of people looking for work that isn't there. The numbers at the rhett o rick Jun 2016 #10
Funny, I look around and see Contractors desperate to find crews maxsolomon Jun 2016 #18
Really? You think the homeless you see on the streets can work contractor work? rhett o rick Jun 2016 #22
did i say that? no, i didn't. maxsolomon Jun 2016 #25
What city has $15 min wage????? rhett o rick Jun 2016 #32
seattle is phasing it in maxsolomon Jun 2016 #43
Seattle does not have a $15 / hour min wage. It's currently only $13 for major corporations and rhett o rick Jun 2016 #45
jesus, you win maxsolomon Jun 2016 #47
For the record I am not Jesus. If I was, I'd encourage the Democrats to support a higher rhett o rick Jun 2016 #51
$15 just put into the party platform maxsolomon Jun 2016 #75
So what are you saying? OrwellwasRight Jun 2016 #57
be my guest. i'm sure you'll find receptive ears. maxsolomon Jun 2016 #76
Disagree -- OrwellwasRight Jun 2016 #91
Seattle for one Motley13 Jun 2016 #87
Bullcrap. Seattle will PHASE IN $15 per hour over the next few years and only for the rhett o rick Jun 2016 #88
Day Ja View. You've said this before and I responded that the homeless nodding out rhett o rick Jun 2016 #84
Post removed Post removed Jun 2016 #92
I see lots of hiring signs liberal N proud Jun 2016 #77
And from your sample you deduce that the isn't an unemployment or underemployment problem rhett o rick Jun 2016 #85
Lots of jobs in the Seattle area MaggieD Jun 2016 #90
the hope of finding a good job has also sunk to a 43 year low...that's the bad news. ileus Jun 2016 #12
Cite please. NT mahatmakanejeeves Jun 2016 #17
tell it to the 25 year old tech kids making more than me maxsolomon Jun 2016 #19
Seems you are missing the point here. There are millions out of work that want work. rhett o rick Jun 2016 #23
I think YOU are missing the point maxsolomon Jun 2016 #27
His min wage he gave some federal employees was $10.10. How low can you go? rhett o rick Jun 2016 #31
One of the dumbest posts I've ever read on DU brentspeak Jun 2016 #37
can that statistic count discouraged workers, then? maxsolomon Jun 2016 #44
You have it backwards. What will lead us to Trump is a reluctance of Democrats to provide rhett o rick Jun 2016 #46
because he felt it was achievable? maxsolomon Jun 2016 #48
Achievable? What? He did it by executive order. rhett o rick Jun 2016 #50
My brother's IBEW hall is literally poaching people flipping burgers at McDonalds Recursion Jun 2016 #28
My city, Nashville, is booming. redstateblues Jun 2016 #82
Those numbers will be truly meaningful when poverty rates go down loyalsister Jun 2016 #30
Three cheers for McJobs, benefit-less temp positions, and part-time gigs brentspeak Jun 2016 #36
Which if you lose with a 12 month period or so in most states does not get you any unemployment JCMach1 Jun 2016 #81
Well if we tighten up the marijuana laws and lengthen the sentences we can kill two rhett o rick Jun 2016 #86
Thanks Obama!!!! Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Jun 2016 #89
I think there are very few jobs left that actually provide unemployment benefits. Sunlei Jun 2016 #93
 

Silver_Witch

(1,820 posts)
1. This numbers are all manipulated!!
Thu Jun 23, 2016, 10:03 AM
Jun 2016

What about all those working service jobs that used to be teachers, engineers, and tech people? Those working two part-time jobs to stay afloat. And what about those of us doing the work of two or three so our companies don't have to hire new workers without an increase in wages for five years!

Frankly I tired of this misrepresentation of the true picture!!

bhikkhu

(10,715 posts)
3. The "true picture" is large and complex
Thu Jun 23, 2016, 10:43 AM
Jun 2016

and there's a difference between manipulating numbers and looking at just one number. Jobless claims is just one number, of course, and only one piece of the picture.

Your general sentiment is shared by the IMF lately, in their concerns about the US poverty rate. Their recent article is good read, closer to a "true picture": http://www.imf.org/external/np/ms/2016/062216.htm?hootPostID=18e8167f3a04eeed8b9f5573e0225dd2 .

Things are good for some, not so bad for most, and very hard for many. Still, the recent numbers are good news. If last month's bad jobs report was the beginning of a bad trend rather than a temporary anomaly in the numbers, we'd expect to see jobless claims get worse rather than better. It looks like they are better.

padfun

(1,786 posts)
5. Well, in California, there are TONS of available jobs where I am at.
Thu Jun 23, 2016, 10:56 AM
Jun 2016

And you only need to work 40 hours a week, with good benefits.

Granted, It is working for a Socialist Government Job, but if you don't mind that, there are plenty. My group needs 14 IT people, (8 on a help desk, 4 programmers and 2 SharePoint Admins) and that is a very small part of the State Government. Sacramento County has many openings, and I am sure that the city does as well. And we have people retiring all the time opening up more positions and many other non IT positions as well. (I am a programmer) There are just WAY too many positions available out there.

I know that people cant just move to California on a whim, but maybe your own State Government has a ton of openings (maybe not some Red States like Kansas, but others for sure.) And if your state doesn't, then maybe you should all vote in Democrats instead of having Repubs obstructing job openings.

It gets harder and harder for me to feel for those unemployed and underemployed when there are just too many jobs that pay well out there, and no IT experience isn't a good excuse. If you are online and understand even the basics of a computer, you can find a place in IT.

whatthehey

(3,660 posts)
6. Well let's see
Thu Jun 23, 2016, 11:00 AM
Jun 2016

A) This metric is about initial claims, a proxy for recent layoffs and thus unconnected to your complaints, but nevertheless...

B) Median and average pay have been increasing in real terms (aka inflation-adjusted) for years, even when you exclude management, which would not be the case if overall job market was trending from higher to lower paying jobs.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/wkyeng.t01.htm

http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cesbtab8.htm

C) The number of people working multiple jobs has stayed remarkably stable since before the recession, and thus is now a smaller percentage (because more people are working, so the denominator has increased). Studies have shown multiple jobs are driven more by opportunity than need and, surprisingly even to me, increase with educational attainment (in other words the higher educated higher paid crowd works multiple jobs more than the low education low pay bloc.)

http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab16.htm

D) Compensation is increasing at right around inflation on average. If a given group of workers have had zer increases for five years, on average a similar sized group must have been seeing double inflation raises (again not CEO-driven, in fact production, transportation and materials did well above average)

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/eci.nr0.htm

 

Silver_Witch

(1,820 posts)
38. That is funny...you use BLS to support your point of view.
Fri Jun 24, 2016, 02:36 AM
Jun 2016

These numbers are total bogus. The "rate of inflation" is also bogus. We have seen inflation in rent increases and cost of food. They use fuel to manipulate the numbers. So we "don't have any inflation and so we don't need a raise." My boss uses it every year...the increase is 1% cause that is the cost of living increase and yet milk has gone from $3 to nearly $6 and yet the BLS says it is only $3 and has fallen in the last year. What a joke.

Sorry your argument is a fail.

padfun

(1,786 posts)
41. I dont know where you live
Fri Jun 24, 2016, 08:52 AM
Jun 2016

but I just bought two gallons and it was $2.89 per gallon. So either you are getting ripped off, or you live in Hawaii.

And yes, even gas is still less than $3.00 per gallon. Even my weed is cheaper now. So I don't know where you live but maybe you need to look at yourself and your situation before coming here and trying to make like you live in a hut in Ethiopia.

Edit: And I bought that milk at Raley's, not exactly a discount grocery mart.

TwilightZone

(25,464 posts)
49. Where do you live where milk is $6 a gallon?
Fri Jun 24, 2016, 12:53 PM
Jun 2016

The US average is currently $3.67.

If you have to make stuff up, your argument isn't going to be terribly compelling.

"These numbers are total bogus."

Yes. Yes, they are.

 

Silver_Witch

(1,820 posts)
52. $5.49 a gsallons at Safeway in San Diego Ca today
Sat Jun 25, 2016, 10:25 AM
Jun 2016

It is on sale at Ralph's for 4.50 if you are a member and buy 2/boxes cereal.

So I am NOT a liar. Calling people liars because you don't like what they say it ride and proves your whole premise is false!!

Sorry I work long hours and know where every penny goes and what things cost.

TwilightZone

(25,464 posts)
53. $4.50 is not $6.00
Sat Jun 25, 2016, 10:27 AM
Jun 2016

Neither is $5.49.

Milk prices are lower than they've been in years: http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?ap

2006 3.197 3.224 3.161 3.123 3.066 3.001 3.083 3.019 3.049 3.064 2.985 3.004
2007 3.067 3.083 3.072 3.135 3.259 3.427 3.736 3.807 3.841 3.838 3.904 3.870
2008 3.871 3.869 3.781 3.799 3.760 3.773 3.961 3.886 3.773 3.656 3.734 3.681
2009 3.575 3.319 3.116 3.084 3.068 3.009 2.992 2.979 2.981 3.046 3.034 3.105
2010 3.236 3.203 3.188 3.140 3.178 3.297 3.313 3.303 3.278 3.321 3.327 3.318
2011 3.301 3.357 3.503 3.597 3.653 3.622 3.654 3.713 3.715 3.622 3.557 3.565
2012 3.583 3.520 3.499 3.474 3.427 3.396 3.428 3.474 3.469 3.524 3.536 3.580
2013 3.526 3.480 3.431 3.428 3.441 3.458 3.449 3.448 3.428 3.462 3.491 3.501
2014 3.552 3.561 3.669 3.687 3.735 3.626 3.645 3.673 3.732 3.766 3.858 3.820
2015 3.758 3.496 3.463 3.397 3.387 3.366 3.430 3.389 3.392 3.338 3.299 3.310
2016 3.313 3.230 3.187 3.155 3.157

 

Silver_Witch

(1,820 posts)
54. Wow that is your response???
Sat Jun 25, 2016, 10:33 AM
Jun 2016

$5.49 is pretty fucking closing. Excuse me for rounding up and not getting you an exact price yesterday. Working impeads my posting.

And 4.50 has limitation so it is a loss leader. The truth is prices are going up and the CPI and LAbor numbers are manipulated. The truth is at the store And in our paychecks!


Really that is your response. What a rude person. You can't just admit you calling me a liar is wrong. Or me pointing out reality ruins your narrative. Wow!

TwilightZone

(25,464 posts)
55. Your anecdotal evidence vs. real data
Sat Jun 25, 2016, 10:36 AM
Jun 2016

Sorry, real data wins. Prices at two stores in San Diego that you hand-selected represent nothing more than two stores in San Diego that you hand-selected. Nationally, milk prices have been relatively consistent for a decade or more.

 

GummyBearz

(2,931 posts)
2. This is getting to the absurd
Thu Jun 23, 2016, 10:40 AM
Jun 2016

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell last week to near a 43-year low, even though the population has grown by 100million people since 1973 (~200million then to ~300million now)???

We are approaching North Korea like propaganda numbers.

Keep in mind the line reads *number of Americans*, not percentage.

padfun

(1,786 posts)
7. I have to agree with the report
Thu Jun 23, 2016, 11:01 AM
Jun 2016

WAY too many job opportunities out there. There is no excuse for not finding one anymore. And the average pay is very livable, around 45,000 to 90,000 per year, depending on where you start.

 

GummyBearz

(2,931 posts)
8. You have a california flag
Thu Jun 23, 2016, 11:10 AM
Jun 2016

$45,000 salary isn't livable in any city I've lived in since I moved out of Bakersfield after high school.

padfun

(1,786 posts)
14. Those are the lowest jobs
Thu Jun 23, 2016, 04:03 PM
Jun 2016

such as OA or OT (Office Assistant and Office Technician.) These are the entry level positions that are minimum wage in the private world. $45,000 is very livable in Sacramento and even in Bakersfield. That comes to a gross of about $3700 per month and a net of about $2300. Not great pay by any means but it is much better than the minimum wage jobs in the private world and is livable in these cities where you can still find a one bedroom apartment for $800.

And most people who start low, know or learn how to take the exams and promote to a higher wage job. The opportunities are there for those who bother to look.

Edit: the OA and OT jobs are lower than $45,000 and as low as $23,000 but they are there for those with no education or skill set. If you have either of those, then you can go for the higher paying jobs as soon as you start.

 

GummyBearz

(2,931 posts)
15. At least you are adding in all the qualifiers now
Thu Jun 23, 2016, 04:33 PM
Jun 2016

Can't live in the bay area, can't live in LA, can't live in orange county, can't live in san diego, can't buy a house in Bakersfield (can only afford a 1 BR apartment), need to continue education at the same time as working in order to increase salary. Sounds about right.

padfun

(1,786 posts)
20. Yes, we all have to do that.
Thu Jun 23, 2016, 05:34 PM
Jun 2016

I am about to retire, but am applying for some promotional management positions right now, mostly so that my pension will be a bit bigger.


As for buying a house, that is going to be rough for the younger workers out there. It will take two family incomes to be able to do that. At least you know that you need to continue education. Good jobs require a continual educational path anyway. I am scheduled for two coming software classes, C# (5 days) and K2 BlackPearl (2 days.) I usually have several classes throughout the year. If you are in hardware, then you would be taking Cisco classes instead.

Good luck to you. You seem to have your on head straight. We need more people like that to make this a better world.

 

GummyBearz

(2,931 posts)
24. Thank you for the good wishes
Thu Jun 23, 2016, 06:27 PM
Jun 2016

I got a PhD (hardware, wireless communication system engineering) and don't plan to take another class unless it involves finger painting or maybe water balloon fighting strategies. I do have 2 incomes but my wife's income entirely goes into paying her student loans. All that said, we have it far better than most, which is why I think there is an income problem that needs fixing. Even though it wouldn't help me out now, I remember living on $500/month in college... its tough skipping meals to make sure your rent check will clear.

 

Silver_Witch

(1,820 posts)
39. You do realize there are people who can't afford education - Right?
Fri Jun 24, 2016, 02:39 AM
Jun 2016

Wow talk about privilege. You sum it up completely.

padfun

(1,786 posts)
40. Neither could I
Fri Jun 24, 2016, 08:44 AM
Jun 2016

So I went to Junior College and got an Associate Degree in Computer Science and got it when I was 35. Like I said, I grew up poor. The total cost was less than $500. So that is not an excuse.

Besides, we have this thing called the Internet. You might want to really use it sometime. I mean other than trying to claw people down who have actually accomplished something.

I mean talk about lack of ambition and full of excuses for failure, you sum it up completely.

padfun

(1,786 posts)
21. As for San Diego and SF
Thu Jun 23, 2016, 05:39 PM
Jun 2016

Even I cant afford a house in either of those two cities. You definitely need two incomes to live there. Oakland is livable on a low wage, as is San Jose. But the peninsula, forget it!

You can always find something in LA but it might not be the in the best neighborhoods. I grew up poor so I can adjust to those, but for many, those places are unsettling to live in.

padfun

(1,786 posts)
79. Just about any of the South Area, and North Highlands
Mon Jun 27, 2016, 01:22 PM
Jun 2016

If you make 45,000, then you will just have to settle for renting an apartment. We all did that in our lives. If you want to own a home, then you would need a higher income.

Making 45K is about $2,600 net and that can be livable if you rent, which there are plenty of places here for under $1000 per month.

Throd

(7,208 posts)
80. If you're single and don't mind having your car broken into from time to time.
Mon Jun 27, 2016, 01:29 PM
Jun 2016

You can get an apartment in a non-scary area of Citrus Heights or Orangevale, but there won't be much left after paying rent.

 

Android3.14

(5,402 posts)
9. Doesn't that mean this is even BETTER news?
Thu Jun 23, 2016, 12:22 PM
Jun 2016

If the raw numbers fell to 1973 levels, wouldn't that mean the percentage of today's unemployed is even lower than 1973?

What is the propaganda message here?

 

GummyBearz

(2,931 posts)
11. My point was
Thu Jun 23, 2016, 01:09 PM
Jun 2016

If the percent of unemployed was at the same level as back in 1973 I could believe it. But the fact that there are an extra 100 million people in this country, as compared to 1973, and some how less TOTAL people are unemployed, makes no freaking sense unless the numbers are doctored up (which they have been since 1980).

mahatmakanejeeves

(57,393 posts)
16. Oh, I see what the issue is.
Thu Jun 23, 2016, 04:58 PM
Jun 2016

What this article is about is this week's release by the Department of Labor's Employment and Training Administration (ETA) that "{i}nitial claims for state unemployment benefits declined 18,000 to a seasonally adjusted 259,000."

You're conflating that number with the number of people who are unemployed. For that figure, find one of my threads on the monthly unemployment data, which are compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Here's June's: Unemployment rate declines to 4.7% in May; payroll employment changes little (+38,000)

HTH. Best wishes.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
26. You're confusing initial claims with total unemployed
Thu Jun 23, 2016, 06:36 PM
Jun 2016

Those are largely unrelated questions. Though the unemployment rate is at an historic low also.

 

GummyBearz

(2,931 posts)
29. Ok. Call it initial claims
Thu Jun 23, 2016, 07:19 PM
Jun 2016

How can we have 100 million more people and lower initial claims? It still doesn't make any freaking sense

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
33. Because the economy today is much better than it was in the 1970s
Thu Jun 23, 2016, 09:57 PM
Jun 2016

Not only are there more jobs per person available, those jobs pay higher real wages.

Economically this is the best time, ever, to be working in the US.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
35. Feel free to post an actual metric by which things are worse than the past (and there are a couple)
Thu Jun 23, 2016, 10:33 PM
Jun 2016

Then, we could actually make arguments about why I think the many metrics by which we're better are more important than the few by which we're worse.

Or, you know, you could just make snide comments about where I'm stationed for work, if you're out of actual arguments.

OrwellwasRight

(5,170 posts)
56. Excuse me?
Sat Jun 25, 2016, 04:40 PM
Jun 2016

The unemployment rate is at a historic low?

No, it's not. It was far lower in the post-war years when the economy was growing at a fast clip, as were wages.

Remember when 2% unemployment was considered full employment? I do. Now 5% unemployment is considered full employment. We're close to 5% now. That's not historically low.

DU seems to have bee flooded in the past week by folks who do not understand what it means to be struggling in an economy of low growth, low job creation, low wage growth, low union density, declining fringe benefits, etc.

Just telling us the economy is great does not change the actual facts.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
58. I'll bite: when was 2% unemployment considered full employment?
Sat Jun 25, 2016, 07:48 PM
Jun 2016

Before the 1990s 5.5% was considered full employment AFAIK.

OrwellwasRight

(5,170 posts)
59. That's not any thing I am familiar with until this century
Sat Jun 25, 2016, 08:04 PM
Jun 2016

5.5% is actually fairly high (at least as the US counts it -- they have higher unemployment rates in Europe as they count it differently). Advocates for higher wages say we need to get it down to 2-4%.

My high school econ textbook said 2%, but here in this Wikipedia article (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Full_employment) it shows the #s have been all over the place:

Tobin: 0%

William Beveridge: 3%

US since the 2000s: 5.5%

OECD: as high as > 6%

US Law: The United States is, as a statutory matter, committed to full employment (defined as 3% unemployment for persons aged 20 and older, 4% for persons aged 16 and over); the government is empowered to effect this goal.[12] The relevant legislation is the Employment Act (1946), initially the "Full Employment Act," later amended in the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act (1978).

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
60. OECD went as high as 8% in the 1980s
Sat Jun 25, 2016, 08:06 PM
Jun 2016

Last edited Sat Jun 25, 2016, 09:06 PM - Edit history (2)



I remember in the 1990s people saying we had to redefine "full employment" because the unemployment rate was dropping below the 8% that used to be considered "full employment"

OrwellwasRight

(5,170 posts)
61. My recollection was that people were desperate in the 1980s
Sat Jun 25, 2016, 08:21 PM
Jun 2016

and no one considered the level of unemployment acceptable. I guess whose numbers you believe depends on what your view is of how the economy is working. However, the OECD formula is not the same as the US formula. Again, the acceptable number has generally crept up over time as the economy became more and more dominated by corporate and financial interests that pressured the govt to accept higher unemployment to keep inflation low.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
62. At any rate, my original point stands that by historical measures 4.9% is "low"
Sat Jun 25, 2016, 09:07 PM
Jun 2016

I can't think of many periods outside of fighting a two-ocean war where it was lower.

OrwellwasRight

(5,170 posts)
65. The thing is, they aren't.
Sat Jun 25, 2016, 09:26 PM
Jun 2016

Wages have been flat for 20 years. People have put on credit cards purchases they cannot afford with actual wages. The middle class lost billions upon billions in wealth because of the great recession. The elites have their money back, the rest of us don't. But again, good for you. Well done!

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
66. The thing is they are.
Sat Jun 25, 2016, 09:29 PM
Jun 2016

Wages (and incomes) rose at every quintile more over the past 20 years than they did over the 20 years before that.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
68. That agrees with me
Sat Jun 25, 2016, 09:44 PM
Jun 2016

The loss to the bottom fifth happened between 1971 and 1994 (actually a much bigger loss) and has been made up some since 1994. Again: the 20 years from 1996 to 2016 saw bigger income increases at all quintiles than the years from 1976 to 1996. For that matter the years from 1976 to 1996 saw a loss for the lowest quintile, and they saw a gain from 1996 to 2016.

If your argument is that the 20 years before that were better, with the caveat that that only applied to the predominantly white male "on the books" economy, I'd agree.

OrwellwasRight

(5,170 posts)
69. perhaps you don't understand the chart
Sat Jun 25, 2016, 09:47 PM
Jun 2016

It says the bottom 20% actually got poorer from 1973-2011. That is the opposite of growth. That is shrinkage. And every other quintile had less growth than they had had previously. So no we are not all better off. But thank you again for playing.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
70. And I agree that happened, and I'm still right
Sat Jun 25, 2016, 09:49 PM
Jun 2016

My statement was "The 20 years from 1996 to 2016 were better than the 20 years from 1976 to 1996". This is true.

It's also true that from 1973 to 2011, the lowest quintile saw wage decreases. However, 2011 was the nadir of the lowest quintile's income (it's since come up) and (you're really dodging this point) those losses, and more, happened in the 20 years before 1996, not after.

Again, you seem to be arguing that the years from 1947 to 1973 were better than the years from 1973 to 2011, which I don't disagree with (as long as we're limiting this to white males, which the data from 1947 to 1965 pretty much do). I'm pointing out that the years from 1996 to 2016 were better than the years from 1976 to 1996.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
72. Not at all. We're talking about two different time frames
Sat Jun 25, 2016, 11:06 PM
Jun 2016

The lowest quintile lost income from 1973 to 2011.

The lowest quintile gained income from 1996 to 2016.

Both of these are true statements, and my original statement that 1996-2016 was a better run than 1976-1996 is also a true statement, and none of them contradict each other.

Where do you see any conflict there? The biggest part of the drop from 1973 to 2011 happened between 1973 and 1994.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
74. Happily. Here's from BLS, though it's just the lowest three white and African American quintiles
Sat Jun 25, 2016, 11:26 PM
Jun 2016

If you're actually interested you can go here:

https://www.census.gov/topics/income-poverty/income/data/tables.2011.html

and here:

http://www.bls.gov/cps/earnings.htm

and go through the spreadsheets.

So, take the poorest white quintile (this is all in 2014 dollars):



As you can see they are making about what they were in 1996 but less than they were in 1973. Which, again, means the past two decades were better for them than the two decades before.

If you look at the poorest three quintiles of both black and white earners:



you'll see stagnation in the 1970s and 1980s, a huge increase in the 1990s, and then stagnation again.

Here's a gender-divided one that makes a similar point:


 

rhett o rick

(55,981 posts)
10. I look around and see lots of people looking for work that isn't there. The numbers at the
Thu Jun 23, 2016, 12:30 PM
Jun 2016

foodbank are up and donations down. Unemployment runs out and people stop looking for work, that helps the statistics look better. I don't see a lot of jobs esp with benefits. And some Democrats are supporting holding down the min wage.

maxsolomon

(33,310 posts)
18. Funny, I look around and see Contractors desperate to find crews
Thu Jun 23, 2016, 05:30 PM
Jun 2016

to keep up with the demand. At the same time I see more and more homeless nodding out on the streets.

Doom and gloom never go out of style on DU.

 

rhett o rick

(55,981 posts)
22. Really? You think the homeless you see on the streets can work contractor work?
Thu Jun 23, 2016, 05:41 PM
Jun 2016

The people I am speaking of looking for work are in their 30's or 40's and need more than Obama's $10.10 per hour to feed their families. I doubt your contractor would pay them extra for their college educations. People are dying of poverty in this country and it sounds like you don't believe it. There are 2.5 million homeless children. This is the status quo that some love so much.

maxsolomon

(33,310 posts)
25. did i say that? no, i didn't.
Thu Jun 23, 2016, 06:31 PM
Jun 2016

I know that contractors need crews. I hear about regularly. there are jobs out there, and a low unemployment rate is a good thing. It puts pressure on wages. In theory, at least.

At the same time, I live in a $15 min. wage city in the middle of a housing crisis. I am aware of the plight of the homeless. I see homeless who are so deep in addiction that they are essentially useless to society, and likely will be for the remainder of their lives. Chronic alcoholics, junkies, tweakers, untreated schizophrenics - they are disabled.

 

rhett o rick

(55,981 posts)
45. Seattle does not have a $15 / hour min wage. It's currently only $13 for major corporations and
Fri Jun 24, 2016, 12:19 PM
Jun 2016

much less for small businesses. Even for the largest employers, there are a number of exceptions to the Seattle minimum wage law.

 

rhett o rick

(55,981 posts)
51. For the record I am not Jesus. If I was, I'd encourage the Democrats to support a higher
Fri Jun 24, 2016, 01:13 PM
Jun 2016

min wage. And just because I don't agree with you doesn't mean I support Trump.

I can't see post #28, who wrote it?

OrwellwasRight

(5,170 posts)
57. So what are you saying?
Sat Jun 25, 2016, 04:43 PM
Jun 2016

That Clinton only wins if we all take some Paxil and pretend the "Economy is Great!" (TM)???

What hogwash.

How about telling the truth about neoliberal-induced secular stagnation, which is holding back growth, jobs, and wages around the globe? That might help Clinton actually win moreso than pretending the sky is purple.

maxsolomon

(33,310 posts)
76. be my guest. i'm sure you'll find receptive ears.
Mon Jun 27, 2016, 12:23 PM
Jun 2016

the problem is: that's not the way to win.

1. you say "neoliberal" and most people's eyes glaze over. you say "neoliberal-induced secular stagnation", and nearly everyone's eyes glaze over.

2. when running for president, it is best to behave as if things are getting better, or can get better, and script your rhetoric to match. hence Obama's "Hope". I'd suggest Clinton trumpet the "lowest UE rate in 43 years" rather than "the economy has been globally restructured to serve the .1%, and good paying blue collar jobs are never coming back to America".

one thing Trump actually knows is that Americans don't want to hear the truth. they want Paxil.

OrwellwasRight

(5,170 posts)
91. Disagree --
Wed Jun 29, 2016, 10:14 AM
Jun 2016

That's why we lost seats in midterm elections. Obama was so busy running around tooting his own horn about how great the economy was, that people felt he was out of touch with their reality. If people are struggling and you run around saying everything's peachy, they know you are out of touch and don't live in their world. They don't vote for you. It doesn't work.

 

rhett o rick

(55,981 posts)
88. Bullcrap. Seattle will PHASE IN $15 per hour over the next few years and only for the
Wed Jun 29, 2016, 12:27 AM
Jun 2016

big corporations. NO CITY HAS CURRENTLY A $15 MIN WAGE. LIES, LIES AND MORE LIES.

 

rhett o rick

(55,981 posts)
84. Day Ja View. You've said this before and I responded that the homeless nodding out
Tue Jun 28, 2016, 07:19 PM
Jun 2016

on the streets wouldn't do a contractor any good. Nor would those that are 50 years old and recently laid off from the hardware store.

I bet you think they need to pull themselves up by their bootstraps, too, don't you.

Response to rhett o rick (Reply #84)

 

rhett o rick

(55,981 posts)
85. And from your sample you deduce that the isn't an unemployment or underemployment problem
Tue Jun 28, 2016, 07:21 PM
Jun 2016

in this country. The true unemployment is over 9% and the underemployment is also very high and getting higher.

maxsolomon

(33,310 posts)
19. tell it to the 25 year old tech kids making more than me
Thu Jun 23, 2016, 05:33 PM
Jun 2016

that we're building offices for as fast as we can churn them out.

 

rhett o rick

(55,981 posts)
23. Seems you are missing the point here. There are millions out of work that want work.
Thu Jun 23, 2016, 05:44 PM
Jun 2016

Sure there are a few "tech kids" but that's it. The jobs that have been moved overseas has left people in their 50's with nothing.

maxsolomon

(33,310 posts)
27. I think YOU are missing the point
Thu Jun 23, 2016, 06:36 PM
Jun 2016

those people in their 50s need to get back out there and on the rolls if they want to make this statistic reflect what you believe is the situation. it can't count discouraged workers.

nothing Obama has accomplished is ever good enough for DU. always finding the negative. he can't fix a structural reorganization of the global economy. especially if congress won't play ball and enforces austerity.

 

rhett o rick

(55,981 posts)
31. His min wage he gave some federal employees was $10.10. How low can you go?
Thu Jun 23, 2016, 08:13 PM
Jun 2016

If we are going to ship jobs overseas we should at least give a min wage of about $15 per hour. The Big Corporations are loving Obama.

brentspeak

(18,290 posts)
37. One of the dumbest posts I've ever read on DU
Thu Jun 23, 2016, 11:53 PM
Jun 2016

And that's saying a lot.

those people in their 50s need to get back out there and on the rolls if they want to make this statistic reflect what you believe is the situation. it can't count discouraged workers.

maxsolomon

(33,310 posts)
44. can that statistic count discouraged workers, then?
Fri Jun 24, 2016, 12:02 PM
Jun 2016

this relentless drumbeat of "never good enough" will lead us to Trump.

thanks for the insult, i'll be sure and remark on as many of your genius posts as possible with the same.

 

rhett o rick

(55,981 posts)
46. You have it backwards. What will lead us to Trump is a reluctance of Democrats to provide
Fri Jun 24, 2016, 12:22 PM
Jun 2016

a decent min wage. Raising the min wage will help the local economies, what's holding us back? Why did Obama limit his min wage increase to $10.10?

maxsolomon

(33,310 posts)
48. because he felt it was achievable?
Fri Jun 24, 2016, 12:24 PM
Jun 2016

that number is a non-starter with the know-nothings, regardless. they'd eliminate the min wage if they could.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
28. My brother's IBEW hall is literally poaching people flipping burgers at McDonalds
Thu Jun 23, 2016, 06:37 PM
Jun 2016

because they can't find the bodies to man their worksites.

redstateblues

(10,565 posts)
82. My city, Nashville, is booming.
Mon Jun 27, 2016, 02:11 PM
Jun 2016

The economy here is very diverse and young people are moving here in droves. They say the city bird is the crane because of all the new construction in midtown.

loyalsister

(13,390 posts)
30. Those numbers will be truly meaningful when poverty rates go down
Thu Jun 23, 2016, 07:54 PM
Jun 2016

As it stands, in my area we have 3% unemployment and 24% poverty. It is hard to argue that "all those jobs that are out there" mean anything when people are employed and still having trouble feeding their families.

brentspeak

(18,290 posts)
36. Three cheers for McJobs, benefit-less temp positions, and part-time gigs
Thu Jun 23, 2016, 11:49 PM
Jun 2016

Oh, and another cheer for the existence of the dishonest U-3, the greatest statistical scam job of all time.

JCMach1

(27,556 posts)
81. Which if you lose with a 12 month period or so in most states does not get you any unemployment
Mon Jun 27, 2016, 01:49 PM
Jun 2016

benefits...

Yet another reason why claims are down.

 

rhett o rick

(55,981 posts)
86. Well if we tighten up the marijuana laws and lengthen the sentences we can kill two
Tue Jun 28, 2016, 07:25 PM
Jun 2016

birds with one stone. Support the growing Prisons For Profits industry that is supporting some candidates, and it will cut the number of unemployed. Those in prison aren't considered in the unemployment statistics.

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