EU referendum: pound plunges as first results point to Brexit – live

[brooklynite]

Source: The Guardian

The pound is slumping now, down 5.5% at $1.408 as bookies now put Leave as the favourite to win.

And the FTSE 100 futures are now down more than 4%.

Read more: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/23/eu-referendum-result-live-counting-leave-remain-brain-in-europe

[jpak]

1. A prelude to a Trump Victory

Short Teh Market

yup

[brooklynite]

3. I see no link.

The Trump voters aren't large enough to equate to LEAVE vote.

[jpak]

6. The Leave Voters are largely motivated by anti-immigrant sentiment

Trump plunged in on Day 1 with the anti-immigrant BS.

Trump only cares about Trump - and will play the market accordingly.

If he is ahead the day before the election.....

He will place his bets to make the most money.

yup

[RAFisher]

15. I've been watching BBC for the last few hours and the similarities are eerie

Yes you're right that Trump have the votes, but the actual voters sound so similar. Anti-Immigration, Anti-Establishment, anti-intellectualism.

[brooklynite]

16. My point is that Trump comes nowhere near 50% of the American vote.

[phazed0]

21. What?

Hillary - 47%
Trump 42%

Looks pretty close to 50% to me. With only a 5pt spread, well, that very well may be close to a margin of error.

2 days ago:
http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/21/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-national-cnn-poll/

[brooklynite]

28. No, that looks close to 40% to me...

[wisteria]

52. I agree with you. Trump is a candidate not a referendum.

And, he carries a lot of baggage.

[840high]

37. That's what I thought.

[wisteria]

53. Nonsense, We will be voting on a candidate not a referendum.

And, we do not have the same type of economy.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

2. Hope the idiots are happy

Enjoy your brave new world.

[Sen. Walter Sobchak]

17. Maybe they can play Rule Britannia on a loop for the line at the Job Centre

The problem with this whole insane exercise is businesses will vote with their feet and choose Europe.

This is going to be a shot of adrenaline straight to the heart of the German rust belt.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

47. My take as well

Britain is essentially ceding the economic leadership of Europe to Berlin.They have likely set the stage for a breakup of GB into it's component parts. Tonight, the post-war era officially ends. I truly think a breakup of NATO is not far behind.

[totodeinhere]

27. This issue is too complicated to write off Brexit supporters simply as idiots.

I find myself supporting the leave campaign since I generally oppose free trade agreements and the European Union is one of the biggest free trade agreements of all.

[muriel_volestrangler]

59. Ask all the Leave political leaders, and you'll find they're very pro-free trade

What they don't want (and what the Leave voters don't want) is the free movement of labour between the UK and the rest of the EU (that's by far the largest reason given in polls). Johnson, Gove and Farage have all been campaigning with "don't worry about trade, we'll make the best trade deals, you won't believe the great trade deals we'll make, you'll be sick of winning", but being clear they will "control our borders" to stop immigration from the EU.

[Little Tich]

4. This is not good. n/t

[RiverNoord]

5. No, it's not...

And with ultra-nationalist political parties steadily gaining ground throughout Europe, things are likely to get much, much worse.

[OnlinePoker]

7. Too close to call

With 3.9 million votes counted, now 35,000 to remain

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-36570120

[OnlinePoker]

8. Now 95,000 to remain with 4.1 million counted n/t

[rusty fender]

9. Live coverage via ITV

On CSPAN already shows Remain ahead.

[drray23]

10. here is a link to.live results

the leave are winning so far

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-36570120


If this wins the stock market will take a big hit tomorrow. London is likely to stop being the financial center of europe as well. My brother who is a vice president of a big multinational company specializing in logistics told me they are likely to move their headquarters from london to germany or france if this happens. Some major banks are also considering that move. Interestingly enough some are considering Dublin. That would be good for Ireland.

[47of74]

30. I wonder if Scotland will want to split off now from the UK if Brexit happens?

They've been wanting to stay in the EU so they might say FiA and declare independence?

[ozone_man]

50. I've heard that sentiment.

During a visit in May. Perhaps a free Scotland after all.

[yardwork]

62. Yes, both Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain.

This will motivate the independence movements there.

This is probably the end of Britain.

[drray23]

11. ah it flipped again ! its very very close.nt.

[wysi]

12. Remain slightly ahead at the moment

Fingers crossed. My friends there don't want to live in a third world country (which leaving might well achieve).

[brooklynite]

13. Back to 50/50...

It seems to boil down to London and Scotland vs. the rest of the nation.

[elmac]

14. My bet is It won't pass

they will stay in the Union.

[NobodyHere]

20. I'll take that bet

[elmac]

66. I lost that bet

and ate my hat, with a little BBQ sauce on it.

[wysi]

18. Now over 200K in favor of leave

Ugh.

[Baclava]

19. 51.2% Leave - 48.8% Remain, so far

Live EU referendum results and maps

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/23/leave-or-remain-eu-referendum-results-and-live-maps/

[Reter]

22. I really don't know what's so right-wing about wanting to leave the EU

If the US was in a NA Union, I'd want out. I can't blame England for wanting to leave. Now, a small, poorer country in the EU would make sense to stay in. Not so much the UK.

[muriel_volestrangler]

60. because it's an anti-immigration vote

See page 36 of this: https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/pm-16-june-2016-tables.pdf

52% of 'leave' say "The number of immigrants coming into Britain" is a very important reason for their vote, compared with just 22% saying "Britain's ability to make its own laws". Another 14% say "Impact on public services/housing", and 10% "The cost of EU immigration on Britain's welfare system".

Side effects will include worse worker protections:

On Thursday 23 June British voters will decide if Britain should continue its membership of the European Union or leave.
Working people will have a big stake in the referendum because workers’ rights are on the line. The TUC is concerned that leaving the EU puts at risk many vital workplace rights currently underpinned by EU law – paid holidays, extra maternity rights and better conditions for part-time workers, as well as many better jobs in export-reliant industries.
RESOURCES
WORKERS' RIGHTS: Brexit impact
An independent legal opinion from Michael Ford QC identifies the dangers of Britain leaving the EU for working people.
BETTER OFF IN - Working people and the case for remaining in the ​EU
This paper looks at the likely impact of Brexit on the core concern of trade unions: good jobs with decent pay.​
A BIG DECISION FOR WORKERS - Interactive guide
Guide to help you understand the main issues that affect working people.
THE NHS: How Brexit could affect our health service
BRITISH STEEL: Why Brexit won’t save our steel
HEALTH AND SAFETY:
- What Brexit would mean
- The benefits for UK workers
WOMEN’S RIGHTS: The risks of Brexit
Women workers’ rights and the risks of Brexit​
This report outlines 20 ways in which EU law has improved the rights of working women in the UK
WORKING PARENTS & CARERS - Risks of Brexit​
​RACE EQUALITY: The risks of Brexit
FREE MOVEMENT IS A TWO-WAY STREET - Brexit would risk it all
PART-TIME AND TEMPORARY WORKERS - Risks of Brexit​
RIGHTS FOR OUTSOURCED WORKERS​ - Risks of Brexit
VIDEOS
The EU referendum: A big decision. Don't risk it! - Explanatory animation
Stuart's story: Don't risk our car industry by leaving the EU
Tracey's story: Don't risk our flexible working by leaving the EU​
Angie's story: The NHS will be poorer if we leave the EU
Maurice's story: Bad bosses will exploit workers' if we leave the EU​
Kevin's story: EU laws have helped reduce injuries at work and even saves lives
Michelle's story: I don't want to risk losing pregnancy, maternity and family leave rights

https://www.tuc.org.uk/EUref

[FLPanhandle]

23. It's a lesson for all governments

Listen to what the population wants or they will replace you.

The EU has been heavy handed in central decisions like immigration that most of their citizens did not agree with.

Either put your own citizens first, or they will find some other leaders that do.

[jcgoldie]

25. i'm no expert on European affairs...

...but I think that sounds like BS.. pandering to xenophobia and isolationism is not a "lesson for all governments."

[FLPanhandle]

32. Look at the reasons people want to leave.

You may say it's pandering, but a government doing something it's citizens overwhelmingly disagree with is a recipe for replacement.

[jcgoldie]

34. ok

The number one reason I've seen reported for Brexit is anti-immigration.. which is universally a bullshit conservative issue. It's fearmongering... build a wall. If I'm wrong someone better informed please correct me.

[FLPanhandle]

40. Then the job of the government is to convince their citizens otherwise

Just taking a heavy handed, "we know better than you unwashed masses" attitude is what the EU has been doing.

Stupid approach for any government.

They are reaping what they sowed.

[iandhr]

42. It's a little more complicated than that.

While of course anti-immigration fearmongering has been a big part of the out campaign which can and should be condemned, there are other issues at play.

I studied the EU for a semester in Strasbourg. There is resentment especially in the UK that EU is not democratic and that as been a big argument for the leave campaign. Most of the power positions are appointed and not elected and the right has successfully tapped into that legitimate anger and the left has not had an answer for it.


Interestingly enough the Eurosceptics used to be a big part of Labour. When the UK voted to go into the EU Tony Benin said, "I'd rather have a bad parliament than a good king."

[muriel_volestrangler]

61. No, it's not much more complicated than that. See the figures in reply #60.

It really is about immigration. The EU is resented because of the free movement of labour.

[Kablooie]

24. Time to buy stuff from www.amazon.co.uk

[Metric System]

26. I was thinking the same thing. We're terrible.

[wysi]

29. Done and done

I bought the first four of the Pink Floyd vinyl reissues today.

[Metric System]

35. You're equally terrible. Now back to shopping...

[AntiBank]

67. you do realise that as of now the gbp v usd rate is about the same as end of February 2016?

[totodeinhere]

31. I'm surprised that so many DU posters seem to be supporting the stay campaign.

I had thought that free trade agreements were generally opposed by most DUers. If you oppose NAFTA and the TPP and other free trade agreements why not let the Brits get out of their free trade agreement with the rest of Europe?

[wysi]

36. "Stay" can be changed via a further referendum

"Leave" cannot. The two are unlikely to have equivalent consequences.

[iandhr]

44. Like all issues there is nuance.

A lot of leave campaign has played on anti-immigration xenophobia. But there are legitimate grievances the UK has with the EU. One is the sense that handing power to unelected people in Brussels is undemocratic.

There are economic arguments on both sides that are legitimate.

[wisteria]

56. Free trade has its advantages.

Less expensive goods and services. You can make more goods at home creating more jobs with higher wages, but the goods will cost more - a lot more, and this may inhibit people from buying the goods.

[brentspeak]

65. Pre-NAFTA and China MFN

Goods were not overly expensive in the US. The "we need cheap foreign products" spiel has always been overstated.

And the era of US trade liberalization has only served to foster the unsustainable rise of US consumer debt; the two go hand-in-hand. The alleged benefit of lower priced goods has been more than counteracted by the corresponding crippling debt assumed by American consumers.

[Odin2005]

63. The EU has a lot of regulations protecting workers, unions, and consumers.

The an UK that is out of the EU will have no pressure to continue those regulations.

As for free trade, I am only against free trade agreements that are with countries at very different levels of development because it incentivizes outsourcing jobs to the poorer country, all the members of the EU are pretty much all developed economies and so that is much less of an issue.

[Celebration]

33. Why should Britain stay in the EU?

EU seems very "corporate" to me. I am not sure it was such a great idea to begin with, especially the formation of the Euro.(Admittedly, Britain didn't buy into that.) If I were British I am not so sure that I would want to give up my sovereignty to the corporatists in Brussels.

[craigmatic]

41. EU is about more than eonomics it's how European peace was defined after WW2.

If all these countries are trading with each other then it's hard to have another war. Just looking at it from an economic POV, it gives the UK access to European markets, allows for free trade and travel between countries for individuals and companies, and finally it made the UK stronger in terms of economic power than what they would've had on their own. Now with them leaving their economy will constrict and they'll probably lose Scotland. The government might have to have new elections after this. It just made more sense to stay.

[iandhr]

45. Agreed

But if they lose Scotland, an independent would not be allowed to join the EU.


Because it would set the precedent for Catalonia to leave Spain and be able to join the EU as an independent country.

[craigmatic]

49. Scotland was its own country 400 years ago. It technically still is a country.

I don't see why they shouldn't be allowed to join. England only seems to act in its own interests to the detriment of the other parts of the UK anyway. The only real bad thing will be that that would guarantee a conservative parliament for the foreseeable future.

[iandhr]

51. Nations that are inside the EU can block the entry of new members.

Spain is currently dealing with their own separatists in Catalonia. If Scotland leaves the UK and gets admitted to the EU Spain fears that it would embolden Catalonian separatists to go ahead with their own referendum and leave Spain.

[craigmatic]

54. Spain is a spcial case because they could indirectly control Catalonia economically but the

Scots would not have to deal with the UK to get into EU. In theory Spain could stop them but the Scots are going to break away from the UK eventually probably sooner rather than later.

[iandhr]

55. Catalonia is one of Spain's wealthier regions.

If anything Spain relies on Catalonia.

[matt819]

38. Numbers

I looked up online and found that there are 47 million registered UK voters. At the moment, the results online are showing some 18 million votes. Of course, at this point it's impossible to know how many will have voted in total. And even then, only half of those will have had the final say.

Of course, the same applies in the US, for better or worse.

And how is it that the split over this issue is roughly 50/50, as are our voting in the us. Strange.

[OnlinePoker]

46. BBC is saying 72% turnout. n/t

[matt819]

39. Exchange rate

Great. I had to send money to the UK today - couldn't wait till tomorrow- and I paid slightly over 1.5. Oh well.

[Angel Martin]

43. In the words of the great Jackie Gleason

"How sweet it is !"

[ForgoTheConsequence]

48. Britain what did you just do?!?!

Wow.

[wisteria]

57. They have just made their lives harder.

[rdking647]

58. world stocks plunging

down down close to 700
s&p down 100
japan markets down 8%
london also down 8%

largest 1 day move in the pound in history,down 10%

[Odin2005]

64. Looks like the UK caught a bad case of The Stupid.