New Poll Gives Clinton Wide Path to Victory

[riversedge]

Source: usnews.com





News
Decision 2016

New Poll Gives Clinton Wide Path to Victory
Poll results from 50 states show close race, but also some surprises, and an overall lead for Hillary Clinton.

By Gabrielle Levy | Political Reporter July 14, 2016, at 6:46 a.m.

New Poll Gives Clinton Wide Path to Victory

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-07-14/hillary-clinton-leads-donald-trump-in-massive-new-poll-losing-ohio-but-winning-white-house?src=usn_tw




In this July 8,2016, photo, Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks at the African Methodist Episcopal church national convention in Philadelphia.
A new poll released Thursday shows that even without winning Ohio and Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton would win in November. Matt Rourke/AP




Hillary Clinton would defeat Donald Trump if the election were held today, heading to a relatively easy victory even if Trump were to win the key battleground state of Ohio.

A massive new poll by Morning Consult finds Clinton, the presumptive Democratic nominee, would collect 320 Electoral College votes to Trump's 212, far more than the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.


The poll, taken between April and early July, surveyed nearly 60,000 registered voters in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, a large enough sample to make a complete estimate of Electoral College results as the presidential race stands now.

When eight toss-up states are removed, Clinton leads 225 electoral votes to Trump's 190.

Morning Consult's overall result is consistent with the fluctuating but persistent lead Clinton has maintained over Trump, the presumptive GOP nominee, in national polling since it became clear they would face each other in the general election. The survey also contains some surprises that may challenge the conventional wisdom regarding the states that are up for grabs this November............




Read more: http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-07-14/hillary-clinton-leads-donald-trump-in-massive-new-poll-losing-ohio-but-winning-white-house?src=usn_tw

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(Courtesy Morning Consult)

[Maven]

1. Gee, I wonder why the news isn't flogging this info the same way they are the 40/40 CBS/NYT poll

and why they haven't bothered to mention every other poll that has shown Hillary comfortably ahead?

[7962]

4. Because they dont get the excitement they want, of course!

[truebluegreen]

18. Gee, I wonder why it is this close.

Given the opposition.

And, given the opposition, the only margin that would comfort me would be a 25+ point lead.

[Hortensis]

54. Always wonder why it isn't a runaway.

Some people are...unbelievable.

[7962]

2. I'll be very surprised if GA goes for Hillary. nt

[brer cat]

13. I think it would

except for the pesky little fact that the votes are electronic without paper trails and republicans control them.

[billhicks76]

22. The Establishment Controls Them

And that means the national security establishment which used to be known as the military industrial complex. Military and homeland security contractors are the ones who can manipulate those machines and it can favor a republican or democrat. Usually a republican but once in a while there is a democrat they favor too.

[brer cat]

27. GA hadn't "elected" a republican governor

since reconstruction until the machines arrived and we haven't had Dem since. I think the manipulation is local, but that is my opinion. You are welcome to yours as well.

[billhicks76]

33. Easy. I Agree

Saxby Chambliss won by fraud in 2002. The exact kind you're referring to. All I'm saying is if a Trump or Sanders were to much of an unpredictable threat...

[MADem]

59. A bunch of my liberal northern cousins moved down there, recently.

It's probably due to an influx of those pesky liberal outsiders that's changing the face of GA politics.

[7962]

60. Where i live probably 1/2 the city is from somewhere else. nt

[dsc]

3. Iteresting

NC strong Trump but GA leaning Clinton. Not sure I completely believe this poll.

[BumRushDaShow]

32. Exactly

given that Obama won NC in 2008 and it was a close loss in 2012, I would have put it at "lean Clinton" (assuming they can rally turnout), made OH as "Lean Clinton", made GA "Lean Trump", and VA as "Lean Clinton" (only because the D votes are almost strictly in NoVA and maybe cities like Richmond and the rest of the state is red loon).

I would also think Iowa and Indiana would be in play, although picking Pence may have closed those doors.

[MohRokTah]

5. This news must be immediately ignored.

This does not promote the hair on fire horse race narrative that so many concerned people ust push.

[riversedge]

15. oh, the media is obsessed over the rnc convention already

[forest444]

6. Hard to believe Ohio is leaning Rethug - after the near-death experience they had in the Bush regime

The perennially prosperous Ohio was an economic basket case during Dubya's last months in office. How soon some folks forget.

[OnlinePoker]

7. There's a pretty big Don't Know/No Opinion in every state

From a low of 14.1% in DC to a high of 21.9% in Utah. It shows the importance of getting the message out to every possible person on why Trump is the wrong choice in this election and why Hillary is the right one. This needs to be done at the grass roots because the media isn't doing us any favors.

[geek tragedy]

8. hard to believe GA is more likely to go for Clinton than OH nt

Regardless, Trump has no path to victory if he doesn't win Florida.

[Turin_C3PO]

48. Even more hard to believe

that Maine is leaning Trump.

[geek tragedy]

49. I would agree absolutely but for two words: Paul Lepage, nt

[Turin_C3PO]

50. Oh yea, that's right.

Maine has been politically disappointing lately.

[underpants]

9. The Berners appearing to be coming over so voter apathy and one other thing stand in her way

And that is BLM. You can win scaring the hell out of people - they will run to the biggest a-hole jerk they can find - and BLM could scare the hell out of a lot of people.

[mcar]

10. K&R

[Mass]

11. So, which is it... Way ahead like Reuters and Morning Consult, tied like CBS/NYT or way behind

like Rasmussen.

A pretty good reason to ignore polls.

[IronLionZion]

12. I think she'll win even bigger than that

If we get enough turnout on our side and enough people are disgusted by Trump. This should be a big blue landslide even for downticket races.

[Motley13]

14. Utah??

The Mormons sure don't like the trumpster.

[NewJeffCT]

17. Nope

Clinton's been slightly ahead or tied in the Utah polls I've seen.

That said, I think Utah will end up Republican, but Iowa, Wisconsin and ME for Democrats.

[BlueMTexpat]

16. I'm less concerned about the actual poll results

than about trends. From your link:

The survey also identified a tight race in several states that have been slowly trending from red to blue. This was especially true where minority groups in the so-called "rising American electorate" are growing, but that experts did not expect to see move to the Democrat's column just yet.

Trump's proposal to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border and to deport 11 million immigrants in the country illegally, along with his coded winks at white supremacist groups, seem to have accelerated that shift: An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Wednesday that otherwise showed Clinton and Trump competing hard found Trump getting zero percent of the black vote in Pennsylvania and Ohio.

IMO, the polls generally look good for Hillary and will continue to improve, so long as we all work as hard as we can to GOTV and help in any way that we can.

Most white male GOPers will support Trump - no matter what they say now - unless he implodes totally, which is certainly within the realm of possibility. If Dems remain united and Dem-leaning Indies throw in with Dems, along with a fair percentage of GOPer women (I remain mystified at why ANY thinking woman would EVER vote FOR Trump, Hillary should do very well.

In some "red" or "reddish" western states, I also expect that Gary Johnson will siphon a fair amount of votes away from Trump. Whether it will be enough to allow united Dems et al. to win is a BIG question. But Trump is such a buffoon. While Pence may be a favorite among so-called "values voters" most in that demographic are already supporting Trump.

I am not sure what added-value Pence brings to the ticket. His political experience is not impressive and he certainly fills none of the many Trump voids. If anything, his selection emphasizes how absolutely awful a Trump Administration would be.

[NewJeffCT]

20. My initial thought on Pence

Christie and Gingrich both have strong personalities and Trump is probably afraid they might overshadow him at times. Both of them have also strongly criticized Trump as well, and Trump has a very thin skin, so couldn't handle them as his #2 man.

Pence is kind of bland overall, so won't overshadow Trump. He also helps shore up evangelicals who may vote for Trump, but may not strongly support him ($$$)

That said, Pence is known nationally as the guy that signed the "anti gay" law in Indiana, so Pence will likely help Democrats shore up the LGBT vote with more money/donations, and also turn off moderates as Pence is another "divider" like Trump. So, he will be a net negative.

[BlueMTexpat]

35. Thanks for your thoughts!

They mirror my own in the points you make about Christie and Gingrich. Trump's ego simply won't allow for anyone who might possibly upstage him. Pence could also bring in some evangelicals who might not have voted at all otherwise, so he would not only shore up that voting segment but might slightly increase it. The likelihood of those voting for Hillary is pretty dim.

Of course, the fact that Tim Tebow is now saying that he won't be speaking at the GOP Convention may have more of an impact with some evangelical fence-sitters, who may remain on the fence, LOL. That's as good as a vote for Hillary. http://www.politicususa.com/2016/07/14/tim-tebow-dumps-trumps-convention-speaking-republicans-cleveland.html

I am especially happy that you believe that Pence will help to turn off moderates and help Dems with donations.

[Cosmocat]

45. Pence actually was a savvy pick

First, he won't hurt Trump.

Second, he won't help him a lot in terms of gaining new voters, but he will help get some fringy Rs who are having a hard time finding a way to gin themselves up to vote for Trump, and will firm up the establishment types who are already in hand.

But, most importantly, Pence is a well established Koch money man. THIS is where this pick helps Trump. It opens up the spigots to the big money types like Addelman who run the party.

He is showing some discipline the last week plus now.

[TeddyR]

19. I mentioned this poll in the NY Times/CBS Poll thread

The key takeaway here isn't included in the OP excerpt - although Hillary has 320 electoral votes in this poll, in 5 key states Trump is within 1% of or tied with Hillary:

In five states – Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Florida, New Hampshire – Morning Consult found Clinton and Trump separated by less than a single percentage point.

Those 5 states have 77 electoral votes, more than enough to put Trump over the top.

[NewJeffCT]

23. Trump is not going to win Pennsylvania

even Joe Scarborough says it's "Fool's Gold" for Republicans - they get excited because early polls show it close, but Democrats always end up winning it fairly handily.

[BumRushDaShow]

31. ^^^ THIS ^^^

I thought they had learned their lesson after 2008 and they finally stopped calling PA some sort of "swing state" for Presidential elections in 2012 (and we had our predictable D result).

But like clockwork, amnesia has set in again and they're back to doing it. Even here in PA, they have started up the stories about an "Amish PAC" that is trying to recruit something like 2000 registered Amish to vote for Trump - because they "may help" if the vote is "close". As if that is going to make any damn difference when you had over 5.5 million votes cast in PA for the last Presidential election, with the usual 300,00 - 400,000 "Democratic excess" coming out of Philadelphia alone.

[jimlup]

21. I'm concerned about losing Ohio

Ohio worries me. Hopefully next week's disaster will fix this.

[John Poet]

37. The Democrats can now easily win without Ohio,

but the Republicans surely cannot.

With states like Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico and maybe even Florida now leaning pretty hard towards the Democrats in presidential elections, Ohio is much less necessary to the Democrats than back around 2000-2004.

But the GOP has pretty much NO path to 270 that does not include Ohio. If they lose there, it's pretty much over for them.

[billhicks76]

24. The Bottom Line Is The Race Is Too Close To Know

And that is BAD news. Anyone trying to claim we have an easy victory is mentally challenged. This is scary. Yes this says Clintin is ahead "electorally". But there are 5 states that are within the margin of error and Trump could win us as easily as Hillary when you really look at it and take that into account. If she doesn't pick an amazing VP set apart from normal politics then she will be making a huge mistake. She needs Warren or Bernie or something out of the box. The fact that she isn't 20 points ahead is extremely concerning.

[Don Draper]

29. I totally agree.

If she picks Tim Kaine, any excitement will evaporate like a drop of water in the Mohave desert. Quite frankly, anyone other than Warren, sanders (or maybe al franken) will be a dud.

[billhicks76]

34. I Respect Brown

Too much to see him neutralized leaving the senate.

[NewJeffCT]

39. Xavier Barecca

seems like a good choice as well. He could help drive up Hispanic turnout as well, and give Democrats a boost in the Southwest.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xavier_Becerra

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/61/Xavier_Becerra,_Official_Portrait.JPG/220px-Xavier_Becerra,_Official_Portrait.JPG

[billhicks76]

43. We Don't Need Hispanic Help

They are already on board. We need White men. But Kaine ain't the guy.

[NewJeffCT]

44. Barecca

will motivate Hispanic voters to turn out. Trump alone won't be enough - he ensures that the Hispanic vote goes heavily to Clinton, but Barecca will also drive up turnout levels similar to African-American turnout increasing due to Obama.

[Cosmocat]

46. Here is the thing with the hispanic vote

most of the key states that are tighter have modest hispanic populations - Pa, Oh.

[rocktivity]

57. Absolutely!!! Hillary needs to balance her ticket

as though it's a tossup.

Kerry was smart enough to pick someone who appealed to women and non-Northeasterners; Obama was smart enough to pick someone with a mature image and foreign policy savvy. To put this away, Hillary's VP shouldn't be a clone, either -- she needs a younger male with some military savvy and a progressive edge, not a fellow DLC hack.


rocktivity

[captainarizona]

25. latest cbs/nyt poll tied.

National polls mean nothing. Why? Blue states encourage democrats to register and vote red states opposite, so hillary will win popular vote like al gore did. Electorial vote different matter, so only battleground states polls have meaning. Also trump voter and republican voters almost always do better then polls say they will. Look it up. Never underestimate the enemy. Many bernie supporters are still on the sidelines trying to decide between hillary and jill stein though most in the end will come home.

[MillennialDem]

26. LOL wisconsin is light blue wtf

[Politicub]

28. My state - GA - now leans Hillary!

Yes we can!

[Raster]

62. wonder of wonders....

...Arizona is now a battleground state, and could go for Secretary Clinton!

[Laser102]

30. Thank you riversedge. Was pretty down after seeing some of the latest polls. This is uplifting.😀

[riversedge]

38. Steady as she goes. Taking nothing for granted

[raven mad]

36. GAhhhhhhh..........

I hate that my state is always red, but only ONE of our federal politicos is going to the convention - and the one who is, is typically an oil-company-owned, basically illiterate jerk.

Lisa Murkowski won't be there, y'all, good little daddy's girl that she is..............

[progressoid]

40. Tied in Iowa? Here's a poll giving her a 14 point lead.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/286154-iowa-poll-clinton-up-14-on-trump-grassley-in-tight-race

June 30, 2016, 02:32 pm
Iowa poll: Clinton up 14 on Trump, Grassley in tight race with Dem

[riversedge]

41. Of the last 70 polls Real Clear Politics tracks, Trump has lost 63. He's never been ahead in the RC

Last edited Fri Jul 15, 2016, 02:50 PM - Edit history (1)

stuart stevens ?@stuartpstevens 2h2 hours ago

stuart stevens Retweeted Jake Tapper

Of the last 70 polls Real Clear Politics tracks, Trump has lost 63. He's never been ahead in the RCP average.


Jake Tapper Verified account
?@jaketapper

New Poll: Clinton leads in four swing states -- Colorado, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia


Jake Tapper Verified account
?@jaketapper

New Poll: Clinton leads in four swing states -- Colorado, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia
www.cnn.com/2016/07/15/politics/swing-state-polls-hillary-clinton-leads-trump/index.html



By David Wright, CNN

Updated 10:14 AM ET, Fri July 15, 2016


Story highlights

New polls from Colorado, Virginia, Florida and North Carolina show Hillary Clinton with a slight lead
The surveys come after a week of other polls showing the presidential race tighter

(CNN)Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump in four crucial swing states, according to a new poll out Friday, good news for the Clinton campaign that has seen other surveys show the presidential race tightening in recent weeks.

The NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll finds Clinton with high single-digit leads in Colorado, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia. Clinton maintains these leads, though at slightly smaller margins, when third-party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are included.

Clinton leads Trump in Colorado 43% to 35%. Johnson performs best in this state -- he garners 12% support when included in the poll, which shrinks Clinton and Trump's support to 39% and 33%, respectively.
....................................

Additionally, the poll found that gender and educational divides continue to shape the 2016 race, with lower-educated male voters favoring Trump, and more highly educated female voters favoring Clinton.
The WSJ/NBC/Marist poll was conducted from July 5 through 10, .................................
In Florida, Clinton also paces Trump, 44% to 37%. Clinton's lead slips to 5 points with third party candidates factored in.

[AgadorSparticus]

42. K&R! More people need to see this and calm the heck down.

[IamTheNoodle]

47. Rational people do irrational things when fear is introduced.

Is is very important for Hillary to present herself as tough and prepared to deal with terror as I believe that's the one thing that could swing votes to Trump. Unfortunately outdated primal instincts may dictate votes rather than higher conscious thinking, Hillary needs to play the game for better or worse.

[Beartracks]

51. "When... toss-up states are removed"?

Isn't that kind of a useless way to draw a conclusion?

Might as well say, "When states where Trump leads Clinton are removed, Hillary has a huge margin of victory!"



==============

[SunSeeker]

52. Wow, and it's 60,000 - person sample!

[HereSince1628]

53. A person employing critical thinking would ask why a -new- poll reaches back into April?

What impact does April really have on our impression about what a -new- poll reveals about the current state of the contest?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

While it's great to be enthusiastic and bouncy happy, there is apparently -much- work to be done from today's date forward.

[ileus]

55. 49 states...we will crush them, and after the election have our way 8 more years.

16 years of uninterrupted rule...it's never happened in my lifetime.


8 more years and their America will be gone...by then many of them will have passed and their chance of getting the presidency will be zero.

[RussBLib]

56. just don't take a Clinton victory for granted

we have to get out there and work and talk to people.

After all, the power of stupid is very strong.

[MADem]

58. Well, doesn't that put a crimp in the Woe Is Me narrative! nt

[Scurrilous]

61. K & R