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hue

(4,949 posts)
Wed Aug 24, 2016, 08:55 AM Aug 2016

Democrats Have a 60 Percent Chance to Retake the Senate

This discussion thread was locked as off-topic by mcar (a host of the Latest Breaking News forum).

Source: The New York Times

The Upshot’s new Senate election forecast gives Democrats a 60 percent chance of winning control of the chamber in November.

Included within this 60 percent is a 17 percent chance that the Senate ends up evenly split with a Democratic vice president providing the tiebreaking vote.

By our count, the Democrats need to win five seats among the 11 most competitive races. (The Democrats will need to win six if Donald J. Trump wins the presidential race; we put Mr. Trump’s chances of winning at only 11 percent). Ten of these seats are held by Republicans, and one by a Democrat, Harry Reid of Nevada, who is retiring.

That the Democrats are favored in this election should not be surprising.

Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/24/upshot/democrats-have-a-60-percent-chance-to-retake-the-senate.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

12 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Democrats Have a 60 Percent Chance to Retake the Senate (Original Post) hue Aug 2016 OP
With Hillary's win, I believe it is 100%. So let's get Hillary elected. nt onehandle Aug 2016 #1
I think I'll just drool over that possibility packman Aug 2016 #2
Strickland in Ohio needs help. Chicago1980 Aug 2016 #3
Ohio ROCK2 Aug 2016 #7
You are correct, ROCK2. It's a pity Ohio Dems can only infrequently recruit strong No Vested Interest Aug 2016 #8
I just wonder bucolic_frolic Aug 2016 #4
I wish we had better odds at retaking the House as well because with the GOP in charge cstanleytech Aug 2016 #5
Oh please please please Ohioblue22 Aug 2016 #6
Please, let it be true. Unit 001 Aug 2016 #9
If we reach our goal of regaining the Senate, I hope we don't blow it. We really need the House too. YOHABLO Aug 2016 #10
The House is not ours to "blow." Gaining a majority there Hortensis Aug 2016 #11
Locking mcar Aug 2016 #12

onehandle

(51,122 posts)
1. With Hillary's win, I believe it is 100%. So let's get Hillary elected. nt
Wed Aug 24, 2016, 09:22 AM
Aug 2016
 

packman

(16,296 posts)
2. I think I'll just drool over that possibility
Wed Aug 24, 2016, 09:25 AM
Aug 2016

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Chicago1980

(1,968 posts)
3. Strickland in Ohio needs help.
Wed Aug 24, 2016, 09:37 AM
Aug 2016
 

ROCK2

(9 posts)
7. Ohio
Wed Aug 24, 2016, 01:27 PM
Aug 2016

I live in Ohio. Strickland is a very weak candidate. To make matters worse, his opponent ran three months of unanswered commercials blaming him for the Bush recession in Ohio. Sad.

No Vested Interest

(5,156 posts)
8. You are correct, ROCK2. It's a pity Ohio Dems can only infrequently recruit strong
Wed Aug 24, 2016, 01:42 PM
Aug 2016

candidates for state and national offices, as exemplified in the last gubernatorial race, the current Senate race, and consistently in Congressional and state races.
We know that gerrymandering is responsible for the lop-sided results in state-wide and Congressional races, and the Republican majority is unapologetic about it.
The Dem candidate in the 2nd Congressional district is a disgrace - no campaigning at all, and he was selected in a De. primary!
Very discouraging.
I'm still hoping to pull out Ohio for Hillary for President.
Turnout, turnout, turnout!

bucolic_frolic

(42,672 posts)
4. I just wonder
Wed Aug 24, 2016, 09:50 AM
Aug 2016

what plans HRC campaign has for October

Obama was always on top of the news cycle, answering volleys quickly
and seeding the news cycle at the same time, and appearing seemingly
everywhere that mattered.

Will HRC accelerate in October? Will Obama and surrogates circulate
like honeybees? It's possible to help our cause.

cstanleytech

(26,080 posts)
5. I wish we had better odds at retaking the House as well because with the GOP in charge
Wed Aug 24, 2016, 11:05 AM
Aug 2016

I think Hillary will have as rough a time as Obama has had at getting anything passed because the Republicans only goal is to try and hurt whatever Democrat is in office and the Republicans literally dont care if their actions at stonewalling legislation keep harming the country.

 

Ohioblue22

(1,430 posts)
6. Oh please please please
Wed Aug 24, 2016, 11:24 AM
Aug 2016
 

Unit 001

(59 posts)
9. Please, let it be true.
Wed Aug 24, 2016, 01:45 PM
Aug 2016

It is so frustrating that backward radical republicans control Congress. This must end for this country to move forward.

 

YOHABLO

(7,358 posts)
10. If we reach our goal of regaining the Senate, I hope we don't blow it. We really need the House too.
Wed Aug 24, 2016, 02:48 PM
Aug 2016

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
11. The House is not ours to "blow." Gaining a majority there
Wed Aug 24, 2016, 04:41 PM
Aug 2016

is still very unlikely. If it does happen, it'll be because of a truly catastrophic "blowing it" by the right, i.e, rejection of their own party by right-wing voters.

However, note that Trump is so weird that reportedly many don't really associate him with "normal" Republican candidates, helping down-ballot Republicans distance themselves from his toxic effects.

mcar

(42,210 posts)
12. Locking
Wed Aug 24, 2016, 07:50 PM
Aug 2016

Violates the Statement of Purpose for this forum. Consider reposting in GD or GD16.

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