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NeoConsSuck

(2,544 posts)
Tue Sep 6, 2016, 07:58 AM Sep 2016

Poll: Nine weeks out, a near even race

Source: CNN

Washington (CNN)Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton start the race to November 8 on essentially even ground, with Trump edging Clinton by a scant two points among likely voters, and the contest sparking sharp divisions along demographic lines in a new CNN/ORC Poll.

Trump tops Clinton 45% to 43% in the new survey, with Libertarian Gary Johnson standing at 7% among likely voters in this poll and the Green Party's Jill Stein at just 2%.


The topsy-turvy campaign for the presidency has seen both Clinton and Trump holding a significant lead at some point in the last two months, though Clinton has topped Trump more often than not. Most recently, Clinton's convention propelled her to an 8-point lead among registered voters in an early-August CNN/ORC Poll. Clinton's lead has largely evaporated despite a challenging month for Trump, which saw an overhaul of his campaign staff, announcements of support for Clinton from several high-profile Republicans and criticism of his campaign strategy. But most voters say they still expect to see Clinton prevail in November, and 59% think she will be the one to get to 270 electoral votes vs. 34% who think Trump has the better shot at winning.

The new poll finds the two major party candidates provoke large gaps by gender, age, race, education and partisanship. Among those likely to turn out in the fall, both candidates have secured about the same share of their own partisans (92% of Democrats back Clinton, 90% of Republicans are behind Trump) but independents give Trump an edge, 49% say they'd vote for him while just 29% of independent voters back Clinton. Another 16% back Johnson, 6% Stein.



Read more: http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/06/_politics-zone-injection/trump-vs-clinton-presidential-polls-election-2016/index.html

24 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Poll: Nine weeks out, a near even race (Original Post) NeoConsSuck Sep 2016 OP
This race is close for one disgusting reason only!!!! Friend or Foe Sep 2016 #1
This CNN poll used flawed sample numbers ... LenaBaby61 Sep 2016 #3
Thanks, LB. CNN has pulled this kind of lie, before. Mc Mike Sep 2016 #6
Wanted To Talk About the Poll erpowers Sep 2016 #8
It won't change votes...it just helps the media have some excitement so people watch. cbdo2007 Sep 2016 #14
I hope the sample distribution is not a reflection of "likely voters" Midnight Writer Sep 2016 #9
Too disgusting to watch. Corporate media always pushes for a horse race harun Sep 2016 #4
Or LWolf Sep 2016 #23
Actually, Clinton is up by 4 in RV (so a fall of 4 points for her) which is in line with other polls Mass Sep 2016 #2
If it wasn't a race, nobody would watch! Helen Borg Sep 2016 #5
The WAPO/Survey Monkey poll shows different numbers. ColesCountyDem Sep 2016 #7
Any single political poll is of limited worth because of the volatile nature of the topic. Gormy Cuss Sep 2016 #13
Exactly! ColesCountyDem Sep 2016 #17
Actually, it is also of limited reliability Gormy Cuss Sep 2016 #19
Oh, I absolutely agree. ColesCountyDem Sep 2016 #22
Fucking insane. mahina Sep 2016 #10
Folks are determined to have their "horse race" Blue_Tires Sep 2016 #11
Trump victory = Disaster Buckeye_Democrat Sep 2016 #12
BULLSHIT!!!! ProudToBeBlueInRhody Sep 2016 #15
National polls are rather meaningless Kaleva Sep 2016 #16
I'm not quite so sure why people are surprised at this.......... socialist_n_TN Sep 2016 #18
CNN is the ONLY national poll that shows the race this close. brooklynite Sep 2016 #20
Then it's no big deal right?.......... socialist_n_TN Sep 2016 #21
Message auto-removed Name removed Sep 2016 #24

Friend or Foe

(195 posts)
1. This race is close for one disgusting reason only!!!!
Tue Sep 6, 2016, 08:06 AM
Sep 2016

The "free press" is no longer "free". They have been co-opted by capitalism, in it's most flagrant form.
This isn't a political contest. It is a "selling-soap" contest.
The press is no better than the Kirby vacuum salesman, who would come into a home and throw dirt on the floor, and then extort a family out of a month's earnings to vacuum it up!

This spectacle is disgusting!

LenaBaby61

(6,965 posts)
3. This CNN poll used flawed sample numbers ...
Tue Sep 6, 2016, 08:27 AM
Sep 2016

They under-sampled Democrats and over-sampled R's to get their "horse race" meme .

"28% described themselves as Democrats, 32% described themselves as Republicans, and 40%
described themselves as independents or members of another party."


Look at the internals and small sample sizes party affiliated/identified used in that poll.

RIDICULOUS.

erpowers

(9,350 posts)
8. Wanted To Talk About the Poll
Tue Sep 6, 2016, 11:30 AM
Sep 2016

I wanted to ask people on DU how they felt about this poll. Someone on twitter asked for CNN to explain why they reduced the size of the sample by 100 people? I wanted to know if the people of DU agreed with that view of the poll; that the poll was reduced by 100 in order to get the current result.

So, you think the poll is wrong. How do you think it will affect people who just vote for the person leading in the poll? Will some people just vote for Donald Trump because they see him leading in this poll?

cbdo2007

(9,213 posts)
14. It won't change votes...it just helps the media have some excitement so people watch.
Tue Sep 6, 2016, 03:54 PM
Sep 2016

If the poll ever day shows Clinton up 60%-40%, people will stop watching the news and their ratings will drop. If people think it's a close race, they will tune in every day to see who is saying what and what the new poll numbers are, etc.

Shock media is only relevant if there is something shocking to report.

Midnight Writer

(21,540 posts)
9. I hope the sample distribution is not a reflection of "likely voters"
Tue Sep 6, 2016, 01:40 PM
Sep 2016

I believe turn out will be the key here.

harun

(11,348 posts)
4. Too disgusting to watch. Corporate media always pushes for a horse race
Tue Sep 6, 2016, 08:36 AM
Sep 2016

that they can then report on everything but a real issue.

For example: he said/she said, hair/clothes, individuals health, etc.

Once Bernie left the race inequality, health care and higher education issues left as well.

LWolf

(46,179 posts)
23. Or
Sat Sep 10, 2016, 11:53 AM
Sep 2016

this poll is simply consistent with the polls over the last year and more that showed the same. Why be surprised now?

Mass

(27,315 posts)
2. Actually, Clinton is up by 4 in RV (so a fall of 4 points for her) which is in line with other polls
Tue Sep 6, 2016, 08:12 AM
Sep 2016

Two remarks:

The last CNN/ORC poll had the race tied in 2012, Obama won by nearly 4.

We have no idea of what filter ORC uses for likely voters.

This said, the race is closer than it needs to be and we can probably blame that on the media news and the lack of visibility of Clinton on the campaign trail.

Gormy Cuss

(30,884 posts)
13. Any single political poll is of limited worth because of the volatile nature of the topic.
Tue Sep 6, 2016, 03:44 PM
Sep 2016

With politics it's always better to look at the meta data --- comparing results using sound methodologies completed at roughly the same time, or looking at the trending data for a poll conducted at regular intervals by the same organization.

People's opinions on candidates can temporarily swing widely if the candidate does something dumb or something really good, but that kind of effect usually dissipates quickly. In a lopsided race it doesn't matter. In a close contest it makes it difficult to use a single poll meaningfully.

ColesCountyDem

(6,943 posts)
17. Exactly!
Thu Sep 8, 2016, 08:45 AM
Sep 2016

The data from the WAPO/Survey Monkey poll came from a much larger population sample (5,000 in 50 states) that actually mirrored the 'likely voters' by party affiliation (or non-affiliation), and used sound, scientific methodology. For those reasons, its nubers are far more trustworthy.

Gormy Cuss

(30,884 posts)
19. Actually, it is also of limited reliability
Thu Sep 8, 2016, 12:04 PM
Sep 2016

because it's a single snapshot on a volatile topic. It may be better than the CNN poll in terms of stratification but it's still only a snapshot.
Now if WaPo has trending data it would be more meaningful when compared to the earlier polls.

socialist_n_TN

(11,481 posts)
18. I'm not quite so sure why people are surprised at this..........
Thu Sep 8, 2016, 11:26 AM
Sep 2016

According to the polls, this is about where the race has been all along, minus the convention bumps.

Response to NeoConsSuck (Original post)

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