AI will eliminate six percent of jobs in five years, says report

[MowCowWhoHow III]

Last edited Tue Sep 13, 2016, 11:23 AM - Edit history (1)

Source: CNBC

Within five years robots and so-called intelligent agents will eliminate many positions in customer service, trucking and taxi services, amounting to six percent of jobs, according to a Forrester report.

"By 2021, a disruptive tidal wave will begin," said Brian Hopkins, VP at Forrester, in the report. "Solutions powered by AI/cognitive technology will displace jobs, with the biggest impact felt in transportation, logistics, customer service, and consumer services."

Intelligent agents, chat bots and digital assistants include Amazon's Alexa, Apple's Siri, Alphabet's GoogleNow and Facebook's Messenger bots. They are powered by artificial intelligence and they can already understand a person's behavior, interpret their needs and even make decisions for them.

AI-based services and apps will eventually change most industries, resulting in a redistribution of jobs, Forrester found. Self-driving cars, for example, will have wide-ranging impacts on both the auto and transportation industries.

Read more: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/12/ai-will-eliminate-six-percent-of-jobs-in-five-years-says-report.html

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[Sherman A1]

1. Not really a good thing in my opinion

and I believe the time frame is more than optimistic, but will most likely be the future.

[dembotoz]

2. should surprise no one

and it won't just be the poor schmucks who should be paid 15 buck an hour at the fast foodery

[cstanleytech]

3. I dont see major job losses from self driving cars happening for another 15 to 20 years.

Also companies are going to have to be careful where they use any AI as it could alienate customers who prefer a human touch.

[NWCorona]

4. All you have to do is look at what's happening in Japan, SK and even Mexico

I've read it will be as high as 20%

[Adrahil]

5. Yup. Plan accordingly.

Creative jobs, technical jobs, and jobs requiring on-site skills (such as a construction trades) are the best bet in the short term.

[Democat]

6. The next president may be in trouble no matter what they do

Imagine unemployment rising by 6% during your first term regardless of what you do.

[jtuck004]

7. Probably 3/4 of the jobs at UPS, maybe USPS? Trucking industry. Whole hospitals

without beds - http://www.businessobserverfl.com/section/detail/a-hospital-without-beds/ - diagnostics and monitoring are already being done in the home. It's going to touch everyone, directly or indirectly.

Could move millions more into poverty.

As said above, it shouldn't surprise anyone. But it will.



.

[sarcasmo]

9. As a truck driver, correct me if I'M wrong. 1 Million OTR jobs.

Driverless semi trucks are a thing. Right now the driverless semi requires a driver behind the wheel. When no driver is needed, who buys the product the robot is delivering.

[OnlinePoker]

13. Don't forget even the lowly fast-food sector and retail

All of the majors are working at automating processes from production in the kitchens to self-checkouts. I was at home depot last weekend and there was one actual till open with four self-checkouts. Almost everyone using debit were going through the self-checkouts.

[Moostache]

28. I REFUSE to self check

I come to an establishment to be a customer NOT a free laborer for the owner.

[hamsterjill]

32. I feel the same way.

And I tell them that I refuse the self-checkouts when they have someone remind me that one is available. I just say that I want a human.

[Crowman1979]

8. One elephant in the room that is never mention from these wall street scumbag networks is...

... Who the hell will be purchasing these goods and services when the unemployment rate increases exponentially due to the workforce being replaced by AI? Frankly, the mass use of AI will end causing the free-market to shoot itself in the foot.

[turbinetree]

10. And to add to this mix your friendly MIT

has developed this badge -------------have a nice day at work.

And has for the automation people just think one day your JOB will come on the chopping block, and you to may find yourself with a card board sign on the street corner----------------homeless need to feed my family


http://yournewswire.com/employee-badges-to-monitor-all-conversations-within-work-place/

[milestogo]

11. Where are all those people who lose jobs going to fit into the economy? .

[Loki Liesmith]

15. need to learn to work with data

Most AI requires trainers. In many ways it's like working with animals.

But less poop.

[milestogo]

16. I think the data entry jobs will be the first to go.

Unless you're suggesting that all those truckers can become DBAs.

[Yavin4]

17. He's not talking about Data Entry

He's talking about writing the code to program and develop the machines.

[Loki Liesmith]

19. not even coding in the traditional sense

But in the short term learning to code is a good step to being needed!

[Loki Liesmith]

18. Nope. I am suggesting something entirely different

Working with AI, specifically deep learning, requires a kind of interaction with the algorithm that is very unlike traditional programming and much more like physical craft work. You needd to warp and distort the raw data in such a way that the algorithm can effectively work with it.

This will require an interface to the data that is intensively graphical. Manipulation of it would be an actual "space" the user could see. It would be a very manual task. Think how the internet "looks" in William Gibson's Neuromancer.

Obviously this wouldn't work for everyone, only those with good visual intuition.

There are some pilot interfaces, including some that I have worked on in a research capacity that have gotten good results in this area.

Not a panacea, and not my job to figure out how to employee "all those truckers". But things like this are overlooked by doom-and-gloomers.

[TheDebbieDee]

29. I've always thot that the solar panel production industry

Could employ thousands of displaced factory producers, assemblers and coal miners... But the US solar industry was stunted by our republican-controlled congress. And now most solar panels are produced overseas and imported into the US as well...

[angrychair]

12. While how dramatic and how quickly are valid questions

Fundamental changes to our society are coming.
How we educate and how we participate as members of society will likely change in ways we have never encountered before.
As I had stated before, some jobs are gone and they are never coming back.
Any political figure that promises returning manufacturing jobs is lying to you.
While there may be a boom in industrial controls and robotics, it will not come near to off-setting the jobs that will be phased out of the workforce.

our world is changing and so far we are refusing to change with it.

[Loki Liesmith]

14. It should create some new jobs though

Data Wrangler is one I look forward to seeing.

[Yavin4]

20. *Sigh*. This just means that newer industries/careers/jobs will replace the outgoing ones.

The internet--this thing that I am typing on now-- displaced entire career fields, e.g. travel agents, people who put together phone books, photo marts, record stores, etc.

However, new fields emerged in their place and new jobs were created, e.g. people who designed websites, smart phones, databases, etc. Right now, there's a huge demand for people that know Data Science and Machine Learning tools.

[ehrnst]

26. I agree - we can't stop automation, we haven't thus far.(nt)

[hunter]

21. It would be a wonderful thing if the wealth generated was distributed fairly.

We could have shorter workweeks, higher wages, better medicine, schools, and housing for all.

We could even encourage people to experiment with low environmental impact, less "consumer" oriented lifestyles.

Too bad so many people who run this world economy hoard their wealth and let it stagnate in useless and unproductive financial scheming that's actually harmful to the rest of us. Automation makes the problem worse if new jobs are not created.

I often wonder what a Star Trek TNG economy of earth looks like. It's pretty clear no one is hungry or homeless or lacking appropriate medical care. The use of money seems to be entirely optional and most people who are working do it in pursuit of an art or craft. For example on DS9, Commander Sisko's father runs a restaurant in New Orleans and his "employees" are enthusiastic students of his art.

A guaranteed minimum income, a "national dividend" of sorts, might be one way to start. Everyone, in essence, would be a trust fund child, without any fears of starvation or homelessness should they decide to take risks like furthering their education or writing a book, as J.K. Rowling did.

Most people have some desire to make the world a better place and little tolerance for boredom. In the Star Trek TNG universe I imagine there are a small number of people who are content to spend their days in a small apartment playing video games, surviving on replicator food and rationed beer, but they are a rare and mainly the concern of a few social workers and mental health professionals. Everyone else is drawn out into a very rich world of opportunity and experience.

[ehrnst]

27. I have to wonder - wouldn't a guaranteed income just raise prices?

In Switzerland, everyone is guaranteed a living wage, but prices are very high.

People thought that all this automation would mean that we would spend less time working, but all it did was to raise the expectation of what you are supposed to accomplish.

Would the same principle apply to a guaranteed income?

[hunter]

30. Here in my California city our homeless live in blue tarp and tent cities.

Most of them are unemployable owing to substance abuse and/or mental health problems. Eventually their bodies fall apart, they are picked up having seizures on the sidewalk and such, and then they get very expensive hospital care and either die in the hospital, or get well enough to repeat the cycle.

If our unemployable people had comfortable housing, good food, and appropriate medical care this wouldn't happen, and I doubt it would be inflationary. Currently the only inflation is in medical costs. Providing good food, comfortable housing, and appropriate medical care would cost society much less than we now pay for our negligence.

I'm not sure what you mean by "expectation of what you are supposed to accomplish." Maybe that's the problem I'm addressing when I say we should pay people to discover lifestyles with very low environmental impacts, perhaps lifestyles in which automobiles and jet airliners are considered useless and unnecessary, and the diet is mostly vegetarian with no "factory farm" meat or dairy products. But it has to be voluntary, it can't be coercive. People have to decide that's the way they want to live, and see the some benefits in a lifestyle with low environmental impacts. In such a society expectations would be changing.

In our current world economy this thing we call "economic productivity" is not productivity at all. Rather it is a direct measure of the damage we are doing to earth's natural environment and our own human spirit.

[joshcryer]

22. Been saying this for years, and this is why...

... this may well be the most important election in our history.

[Sancho]

23. I just wish they would hire people to answer damn near every business I call...

There has to be a thousands of jobs in customer service!

[WhiteTara]

24. I saw a show on CCTV where one factory laid off

500 people and kept only 84 to look after the machines.

[ehrnst]

25. Automatic elevators took jobs. Diesel trains took jobs. Voicemail and email took jobs.

We can't stop automation, but we can retool, and change the nature of jobs.

[Moostache]

33. What needs to be retooled is capitalism...

The chase for eternal "growth" within a finite system is imperilling life on Earth, to say nothing of the pace life and the non-stop glorification of consumption over all else. Life is more than the amount of favor you can curry by exchanging "money" for goods, services or influence.

Humanity exists in a state of permanent slavery for 99.9% of the population and extreme hoarding for 0.1%. Jobs are not the real issue - valuing community, contributing to its betterment (instead of sucking out all the "profit" possible and sending it elsewhere or giving it to the owner's great great grandchildren's trust fund); human life and improving quality of life for ALL living things is what should be our priority. I know that sounds "pollyanna" and "pie-in-the-sky" to almost everyone...but when we all die, we do it alone at the very end and nothing comes with us, only things and feelings and emotions and love left behind.

The world should be a better place because each of us humans is enabled to make a contribution to it's overall improvement, THAT is a world worth fighting for, worth dying for if necessary.

John Lennon sang it best, but just imagine what COULD be instead of thousands of bombs falling on the innocent and defenseless. It breaks my heart daily to know just how far away we are at the same time I can see the technology that COULD be leveraged to serve mankind instead of serve the capitalist system's insatiable desire for more...

[ehrnst]

34. Technology and economic systems, like any tools, are never more moral than the hands that work it

I agree with everything you say about humanity.

I have no idea how to create this world, except to live in it in a moral way, participate in my society and government as much as I can, and raise my child to be aware and kind.

Throwing individual stones in the river until they change the course of the river, to put it another way.