Trump Has 5-Point Lead in Bloomberg Poll of Battleground Ohio

[still_one]

Source: Bloomberg

Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 5 percentage points in a Bloomberg Politics poll of Ohio, a gap that underscores the Democrat’s challenges in critical Rust Belt states after one of the roughest stretches of her campaign.

The Republican nominee leads Clinton 48 percent to 43 percent among likely voters in a two-way contest and 44 percent to 39 percent when third-party candidates are included.

Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-09-14/ohio-poll

---

I have no doubt that some of this is the direct result of the media's distortions and outright lies regarding Hillary, while at the same time going out of their way to minimize the deplorable views of trump and company

[Matthew28]

1. This is scary...

We're surrounded by fascist and truly evil people.

[still_one]

3. It is distrubing, and I blame a good part of it on the distrotions that the MSM has been all to

willing to exploit. The pneumonia incident itself makes one wonder if the MSM is getting their talking points directly from the republican party.

The way Hillary is treated by the media verses Trump demonstrates more than anything how distorted the media coverage is.

Trump bans the Washington Post and others from his events, and hardly a word is mentioned. If Hillary pulled the same stunt, you could imagine the 24/7 coverage of it. Interesting that Trump has lifted that media ban a few days ago, and it makes me wonder if there were insurances from some of the media that they would provide more favorable coverage of him.

[HellNoKitty]

63. I agree

[Democat]

2. The health scare may be a real issue

This is not the only poll after 9/11 to show a potential problem for us.

She needs to get back out on the campaign trail and show voters that she is strong and ready to be president.

[MowCowWhoHow III]

4. The daily LA times poll shows a divergence post 9/11

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

The absolute numbers can be poopoo'd, but I believe the movement directions seem legit (see conference bumps).

[still_one]

6. The LA Times/USC poll is not reliable. Their methodolgy very questionable, and has been criticised

by Silver and others. There sampling is very questionable

[MowCowWhoHow III]

7. I said the absolute numbers are not really the point

I believe the daily movement of the poll is pretty resilient to any sampling defects (as it is a constant methodology).

[RAFisher]

16. Silver said the methodology is sound but has it's short comings because it doesn't resample.

He thinks the trend lines are accurate but the totals favor Trump by about 6%. So just adjust for it. Seeing a spike for Trump in the LA Time Poll is not good sign as MowCowWhoHow III said.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-leave-the-la-times-poll-alone/

[still_one]

31. If the initial sampling was flawed, then the whole poll is flawed. In fact it has been contrary to

most every other poll out there

[Iliyah]

28. I live here in Los Angeles and see the paper every day and it's trash and 80% pro-GOP

I would never take this poll as legit. As to OH's poll, again, low % on POC voting and young and extremely high for whites. Ain't gonna happen.

[LenaBaby61]

40. I also live in the LA County area...

And agree totally with your assessment about the LA Times newspaper. Plus, what are the cross tabs in this Bloomberg poll? They polling mostly whites and down-playing the minority vote? They poll 155 people? 700 people? They poll people using land lines ONLY and no cell phones? IS the poll leaning more right than it should? Millennials included?

[former9thward]

49. Bloomberg was considered good when they had Clinton winning.

Now its bad because they don't? If you had all those questions why not just look? It is not hidden.

Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 1,138 Ohio adults with randomly selected landline and cell
phone telephone numbers supplied by Survey Sampling International. Responses from the full probability
sample were weighted by age and race to reflect the general population based on recent census data.
Interviews were administered in English.

Percentages based on the subsample of 802 Ohio likely voters may have a maximum margin of error of
plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions
and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown
here by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents—
such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error.

https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/r2.771xfmKOI/v0

[Iliyah]

52. 2004 model. And 2016 - 83% for white electorates which in fact there is only 77-78%

of white electorate. POC % far less than the outcome in 2012. What this and NV poll is suggesting is that the white electorate will overwhelmingly, almost 100% vote for T-rump.

Nope. I would assume that NV is close with a HRC edge and OH is tied.

There is no surge regarding T-rump.

[Kilgore]

34. Trending wrong way in RCP poll mashup

A summary of all the polls shows Hillary declining and Trump rising. Check out the 7 & 14 day averages

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

[still_one]

5. That is bullshit, and a R/W talking point. Calling racists deplorable was also out of bounds I

guess, and by the way Hillary made it very clear who she was referring to as deplorables, but the media left out the context intentionally

The Matt Lauer interview also demonstrated the two different standards the media behaves toward the candidates.

Your last sentence I agree with a 100%

[still_one]

8. Has the media even discussed where the candidates stand on the Supreme Court, or any of the issues

that will affect Americans years to come?

I am convinced that the only thing they want to discuss is superficial bullshit. Does "Hillary smile or look angry? Is Hillary defensive?"

WTF, are they just ignoring Trump.

There was a time that anyone who had the backing of David Duke, the KKK, and white supremist groups would have been racked over the coals by the media.

Why is Trump held to such a low standard, and Hillary is held to an impossible standard?

F**king sexist corporate media assholes

[NWCorona]

18. The Supreme Court is the one issue people need to wake up on.

[still_one]

29. It sure is, and it is hardly even talked about

[BumRushDaShow]

9. Remember that she has many paths to 270+

and he has few. Watching a single poll and predicting the entire election is like watching a 1-day move of stocks on the stock market and predicting a bull or bear market.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

[jtuck004]

17. All either one needs is one. n/t

[BumRushDaShow]

27. Trump's "path"

requires PA, which he is not going to get.

[TexasBushwhacker]

44. And most likely Florida

He may get one of the 3, but it's not likely he will win all 3.

Three of the states bordering Ohio are Republican strongholds Indiana, Kentucky and West Virginia. It is a lot like Texas in a way; blue cities and red everywhere else.



The good news is that voter registration and GOTV efforts can be concentrated in the cities. We can do this!

[BumRushDaShow]

46. Exactly!

That is why the President was here yesterday, and despite the media's mischaracterization about the reason (it had been scheduled before Hillary's pneumonia issue had been announced so it wasn't "instead of" her), he was rallying the city. We have 800,000 registered Democrats here in this city alone (the city is also the county) and that is enough to offset red votes from the rural areas when we can get at least 60% turnout (which is about average for Presidentials).

I.e., we have more registered Democrats in the city of Philadelphia than the total population of the 24 smallest PA counties combined (with PA having 67 counties). In general, PA has almost 1,000,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans.

[videohead5]

10. Ohio Poll Based On 2004 Model

R's 43% to D's 36%.

[still_one]

12. That is a very good point. I think Democrats will be much more motivated to come out and vote than

their republican counterparts.

[Adrahil]

13. yeah... not many people mentioning this.

a 2004 election turnout model is fucking ludicrous.

[Ace Rothstein]

14. There is no model based on party.

It could be a bad sample but pollsters don't sample by party affiliation.

[RAFisher]

15. What? I didn't read that. I read that based on polling they think turnout will look similar to 2004

They took a random sample of Ohio residents and only included they ones that said they were definitely voting in November. Nothing was adjusted for party.

[videohead5]

19. Oversampling

Aren't they oversampling Republicans?...a poll out of Ohio two days ago had Hillary up 7 points.I think it's closer than that.

[LenaBaby61]

41. Ohio Poll Based On 2004 Model..

NOT that we shouldn't work hard, donate whatever we can when we can, register voters, phone bank if possible and especially GOTV, pretending that Hillary's down by 10 points in the polls--stay engaged as voters, but if you're right, and they're using a 2004 model to put out "updated" polling information when we KNOW that demographics have really changed in 10 + years is absolutely ridiculous.

[bucolic_frolic]

11. Corporate-Republican-Lite

does not leave Democrats with many issues to run on in Ohio
and in many Senate races

We are not differentiating and attacking, we are being sucked-up
to, imitated, triangulated to minimize our differences, and then the
subtle character assassinations do the Repubs' dirty work

[iandhr]

21. Hillary Clinton is not Republican-Lite

That is one of the biggest BS things out there.

[Helen Borg]

22. Why is that BS?

[bucolic_frolic]

37. Did I mention Hillary Clinton?

No, I did not. That's a Senate problem more than anywhere else.

[videohead5]

20. They Polled Obama too

He only got a 46% approval rating.this poll seems fishy to me.

[Cryptoad]

23. Why is it,,,

that the polls showing HRC 5 pts ahead get no "sky is falling" Headlines....? Funny how that works.

[inwiththenew]

24. It wouldn't surprise me if he wins Ohio

Portman is up double digits over Strickland last time I checked. I wouldn't be surprise if that carries over into the general.

Ohio isn't a must win though for Clinton. Just win VA and NC or FL and she's good.

[CincyDem]

36. Good point. Ohio is a state where Republican strength can move up-ballot.

Relative to Strickland (possibly the worst choice of a string of bad choices for Ohio dems), Portman has huge "coattails". Usually intended to mean that higher office candidates pull lower rung candidates along for the ride. In this case, very insightful point that Portman's strength could ride up...especially if Portman gets sufficiently comfortable with his lead that he feels he can actively support Trump without consequences.

[Cosmocat]

38. Ohio has been the one "swing" state that she has consistently

had the most trouble getting traction.

Florida to an extent, too.

As you noted, she can get over the finish line without it, but if she wins the rationalizations to marginalize her WILL be put forward and the bigger the win in any fashion the better, so obviously you want to eek it out there if possible.

[mopinko]

25. send in barack

to sweet talk the suburban women. and to fire up those youngens.

[Imperialism Inc.]

26. In my opinion Trump has been leading in Ohio for a while now.

Though there are a couple exceptions, most of the polls have been showing a Trump lead for a while now. 538 had it basically tied, with a small Clinton edge, for a while now but I think that's because it was relying too much on early August numbers. The polls that came out then were mostly blue but then switched to mostly red.

[videohead5]

30. YouGov Poll

3 days ago had Hillary up 7 points in Ohio.the Bloomberg poll also has Obama's approval rating at only 46% when nationally he's at 58%.we will have to wait on more polls to see if this is an outlier.

[Imperialism Inc.]

32. Yeah the YouGov is one of the exceptions and is surely an outlier even

if you think Clinton is leading. She surely isn't up by 7.

Anyway, here is the 538 page for Ohio. As I was saying, mostly red for a while now.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/

[humbled_opinion]

33. WTF she was up by 3 in last

Bloomberg poll , 8 point shift can't be Kasich is still nevertrump something wrong with this poll

[Elmergantry]

35. like i said

Whoever wins mahoning trumbull and columbiana counties takes ohio and thus maybe the election. Local talk dj was dem and two time obama voter. Voted dem i believe since dukakis. Switched to support trump and is a blow torch for trump. I guess he has become an evil facist too

[Cosmocat]

39. Interesting

nm

[broadcaster75201]

42. Check the model before worrying. WAY off.

Besides, it's one poll. The others, so far, haven't been like this.

It's not election day.

It won't be this skewed GOP on Election Day.

Relax for Heaven's sake. We have 6 weeks to go and three debates on the way.

[still_one]

43. You are right. Someone pointed out they based it on a 2004 model which overweighted

republicans

Thanks for putting emphasis on that

[BumRushDaShow]

48. Ohio was also the election where

SOS Ken Blackwell ran the results through a RNC server.

It would seem to me that the last 2 elections are the better "model", buffeted by the fact that you might gain indie voters who refused to vote for Obama due to his race, but might lose some votes if you have those out there who refuse to vote for a woman or are not approving of Hillary in general.

[still_one]

57. I forgot about that

[BumRushDaShow]

60. Plus

Rove's IT guru involved in setting up Ohio's election returns site in 2004 died in a small plane crash just before he was supposed to testify in 2008 about what happened in 2004 with the OH results and missing Bush emails.

I know that DU was having all sorts of CT fits back then!!

[still_one]

61. ................................................

[MFM008]

45. The problem is

Even if it's fiction the maggot will use it as bragging rights.
Also most pollsters will add it into the average.

[Bradical79]

47. It's Ohio. Who knows.

Just assume it's tied at all times, and work hard on winning votes and getting the vote out. It's an amazing mix of liberals and regressives here. Probably best to never be overly optimistic or panicy.

[The Stranger]

50. One poll or many polls -- she is trending down, and he is trending up, even on 538.

If this continues, she'll lose the election.

[triron]

51. Sam Wang

still has her bayesian probability at 90%

[elleng]

56. Can you post Sam Wang's info, please?

[triron]

58. OK

http://election.princeton.edu/

[elleng]

59. Thanks.

[Ken226]

53. Not sure I'm strong enough to take 4 years of Cheeto delivering state of the union addresses!

[DeminPennswoods]

54. Selter's LV methodology

This is a good read from the NYT about Ann Seltzer's (of the Iowa Poll) likely voter screen.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/31/upshot/why-this-is-the-iowa-poll-that-everyones-waiting-for.html?_r=0

[scipan]

66. thank you, good article.

Her LV method is simple and works, at least in Iowa. I wonder if it translates to Ohio.

[DeminPennswoods]

67. we'll find out

Terry Madonna and the gang at Franklin and Marshall (PA) who do the F&M Poll (formerly Keystone Poll) use the same method, I think. They ask "how likely are you to vote?". They also put out the full marginal frequency report so you can see all the data. Survey USA also puts out all its numbers.

I myself have less confidence in polls that don't show the full data and/or that show only LVs, not RVs. I like to judge for myself.

[Sen. Walter Sobchak]

55. Don't over-think this

It's a result of some parts of this country being over-run with assholes and Trump having a unique appeal to those assholes. The wildcard in this election is how many previous non-voting angry white assholes Trump is going to bring out to the polls.

My girlfriend's deadbeat relatives in Nevada (who blame all their self-inflicted woes on Mexicans) have registered to vote for the first time because of Trump.

[HellNoKitty]

64. Always never over-think

Polls suck.

[GusFring]

62. Can you imagine Barack & Michelle Obama having to sit thru a Trump Inauguration/Klan rally

Whats wrong w/ this country

[Rustyeye77]

65. Gee ...the idea of ...him as president literally makes me want to...