CNN/ORC polls: Trump's national gains extend to Florida, Ohio

[NeoConsSuck]

Source: CNN

Washington (CNN)With eight weeks to go before Election Day, Donald Trump holds a narrow lead over Hillary Clinton in Ohio and the two are locked in a near-even contest in Florida, according to new CNN/ORC polls in the two critical battleground states.

Among likely voters in Ohio, Trump stands at 46% to Clinton's 41%, with 8% behind Libertarian Gary Johnson and 2% behind Green Party nominee Jill Stein. In Florida, likely voters split 47% for Trump to 44% for Clinton, within the poll's 3.5 percentage point margin of error, and with 6% behind Johnson and 1% backing Stein.

In both states, Trump's support increases as a result of the likely voter screen, among all registered voters, Clinton edges Trump 45% to 44% in Florida, and in Ohio, Trump tops Clinton 43% to 39% with Johnson at 12%.

The polls come as other national and battleground state polls suggest a sharply tightened contest compared with mid-August. While Clinton emerged from her convention with the advantage in surveys in both states and nationwide, more recent surveys suggest a closer contest and an enthusiasm gap that tilts in Trump's favor. A Bloomberg Politics survey of Ohio voters released Wednesday morning found Trump ahead by five points, identical to the margin in this survey of Ohio voters, and Quinnipiac University surveys released shortly after Labor Day showed an even contest in Florida with Trump up four points in Ohio.

Read more: http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/14/politics/cnn-orc-poll-florida-ohio-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/index.html?adkey=bn

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There is still almost two months to go. Plenty of time for voting Americans to come to the realization that they might be electing a madman!

[Farmgirl1961]

1. God I hope so!!!

Wake up people!!!!!!

[vadermike]

2. Well

After all the shit ha has said they still want him I don't think there is anything he can say or do at this point he is Teflon I am in despair

[RBInMaine]

3. "Despair" is the EXACT problem. Don't obsess on polls. Donate. Make Calls. Canvass. VOTE.

[NeoConsSuck]

8. + 1000

Wringing one's hands does nothing to turn around an election. Like you wrote: Donate. Make Calls. Canvass. VOTE.

[Democat]

14. Not the first time you've posted that Trump is going to win

There are so many accounts coming out of the woodwork today to say the exact same thing:

Trump is teflon.
Clinton is going to lose.

Anyone else see a pattern?

[adigal]

29. Keep putting your head in the sand because it disagrees with your bias

He is beating her handily in Ohio. Wtf?????? Florida is tied. We are in trouble. How can 1/2 this country go for a carnival barker?? I am ready to pull. My hair out of my head.

[Egnever]

36. .

[adigal]

49. Thank you for the typically intelligent reply to any questions about polls that don't look good

This is how you lose elections. Refuse to look at reality.

[Egnever]

51. You aren't the least bit interested in reality.

Intelligent replies would be wasted.

[Democat]

43. There are legitimate concerns

And then there are trolls.

DU has a troll problem for the last few days.

[adigal]

50. Yes, I'm a troll who has been here since 2004...wow!! I'm a determined troll. :)

[Democat]

52. There is a longtime pro-Trump troll posting in this thread

But it's not you. Sorry if it wasn't clear.

[GummyBearz]

47. Your lack of concern has been noted

[blm]

4. "as a result of the likely voter screen" = Did you vote in 2010-2012-2014?

If you did then you are a 'likely voter' in 2016 and they will include you in their poll.

If you didn't vote in off-year races, you were not included.

This is why I never panic over Likely Voter polls, and the corporate media knows damn well how specific 'likely voter' polls are yet they tout them anyway during presidential election years.

[kcjohn1]

30. They use likely as we get closer because ~50% of the public doesn't vote

This particular poll, there is no difference between registered & likely in Ohio. Trump is up 43-39 among registered voters.

FL its 45-44 Clinton.

[Cryptoad]

5. grain of salt

this same poll had major flaws last week with the makeup of their sampling........

[LenaBaby61]

9. Not that we don't need to work hard to get Hillary elected...

But I agree with you. WHAT kind of polling methodology is cooked into THIS poll?

What are the cross tabs etc.?

[machomaas]

13. Ohio poll

Besides the bias towards older people I also notice very few respondents from the Cleveland area!

[Divine Discontent]

44. thanks for that info.

That matters a lot! It's BS when they do polls that are slanted and try to push them as accurate in their methodology.

[machomaas]

10. It's worth digging into these polls (or not depending on how busy you are ;)

Besides the likely voter screen which uses some Proprietary(?) formula that isn't fully described, the demos of the people who are described as likely might have something to do with these numbers. For one thing, Almost all of the likely voter respondents are over 50. Also seems strange to me that the Don has the same support among white women as he does among white men. Maybe it's because of the old thing. This is for Florida poll BTW, haven't looked at Ohio poll yet.

[bucolic_frolic]

6. What is wrong with people?

What am I not understanding?

It's the Evangelicals? The manufactured Benghazi damage?
Faux News?

What will we do if this Devil takes office? America cannot survive this.
We will be a Friendly Dictatorship for the Monied Interests

[videohead5]

7. Hillary On a Video Loop

Staggering into her vehicle all weekend on all the news channels.Hillary just released more medical information.the media is also finally attacking Trump.

[BumRushDaShow]

11. The poll was conducted from 9/7 - 9/12

so most of the people contacted wouldn't have seen that.

[PSPS]

12. CNN uses yet another flawed poll as click bait.

[LenaBaby61]

20. AGAIN, with another ORO/CNN HORSE RACE poll...

CNN with their 2nd or 3rd poll in a row in which they change the metrics yet again to KEEP this year's presidential race a "horse race."

The internals tell the story so clearly.

Yeah, I'll work hard in any way I CAN to get Hillary elected from the GREAT state of California, and Stick with Sam Wang then Nate.

[TomCADem]

41. Karl Rove's election night melt-down over Ohio results on Fox News (Unskew the Polls)!

Insisting that the polls leading up to the election are wrong leads to embarrassment. I think the bigger issue is not the polls, but the actions of the media in skewing coverage against Hillary such as making up a scandal about the Clinton Foundation, but ignoring the actual bribery with the Trump foundation:

[machomaas]

15. Links to CNN/ORC cross tabs and methodology

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/09/14/ohiopoll.pdf

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/09/14/floridapoll.pdf

Columns with N/A correspond to less than ~140 respondents

[TexasBushwhacker]

16. GOTV GOTV GOT Fucking V

Blue cities and red rural areas in both states. Push voter registration and GOTV in the cities makes it a lot easier than having to campaign statewide.

[SansACause]

17. What's with Ohio?

I understand the South voting for Trump (same as it ever was), but what's with Ohio? Spillover from Kentucky or something?

[SansACause]

19. There's also this

[link:http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-ohio-polls_us_57d940bae4b0aa4b722d6f43?|

[LenaBaby61]

21. Look into the internals of of these Horse Race Polls.

Pretty soon, ORO/CNN will be polling the most conservative, made-dominated, uneducated counties in California where there are STILL some died-in-the-wool conservatives who long for a RED California, and they'll get the kind of polling numbers they want and then the headlines will read "Trump sharply closing the gap with Clinton in California."

I live here in California and the last few solid polls had tRump trailing Hillary by some 20 points here in California. In other words, these polls are crafting a horse race narrative. Not to say that we should be complacent or that we shouldn't be working to GOTV like we're behind 10 points, but at some point we have to forget about these horse race polls some of these pollsters are crafting and do OUR thing, because these polls are being crafted to KEEP the networks from losing $$$ via viewer ship. IF these polls showed Hillary with continued solid leads over tRump, do you think people would be watching CNN?

[geek tragedy]

18. White voters overwhelmingly embracing Trump according to these polls.

Appalling numbers of white nationalists out there.

Really ashamed to be white these days.

Barf.

[MisterFred]

22. It's foolish to be ashamed of what someone else of your race does.

Going beyond the complexity of how to define race, you shouldn't ever feel ashamed of what other people do, unless you have somehow encouraged that action.

Slaves crossing the Atlantic had no reason to be ashamed because members of their "race" sold them into slavery. Americans with Chinese ancestry are not responsible for the actions of the Taiwanese government. And you are not responsible for white supremacists, unless you fail to oppose them when you meet them or otherwise give support.

[geek tragedy]

23. I'm part of the same system of white privilege, I don't support it

but its' very real and there's no dissociating myself from it.

[HockeyMom]

24. Floridan who voted for Sanders

Former New Yorker. I would vote for Mickey Mouse before I ever voted for Donald Trump. Are Americans really this gullible? Yes, I will vote for Hillary solely because she ISN'T Donald Trump. Sorry, if this upset Hillary fans, but a vote is a vote no matter the reason.

[Skittles]

28. never underestimate sexism and misogyny

seriously

[ffr]

25. WAIT! PEOPLE! This poll wasn't scientific! ONLY age 50+

See PDF's page 9.
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/09/14/floridapoll.pdf

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512417507

[Greywing]

32. I was just looking at those polls too. No one between the ages of 18 to 49 was polled

Now that's what I call a misleading poll. Morale is don't be so quick to believe a poll.

[muntrv]

26. About Ohio......

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512417507

[Old Vet]

27. Reasonable people should be VERY concerned.........

First I cant believe the people I know backing trump, Wow. Second, Every Bernie supporter that's backing Gary Johnson because they feel ripped off will do more harm then then people are discussing. Third, What happened to Mr Sanders support to not let Trump get elected? Just saying....................

[ffr]

31. Maybe, but see post #25. Poll unscientific

Whoopsie.

Relax. Keep up the good work, if you're part of the HRC GOTV

[Old Vet]

37. Seems you are correct ffr.......WHEW.......

[Greywing]

33. Just saying ... absolutely no one between the ages of 18 - 49 was polled in either the Ohio or

Florida poll. I don't feel very panicked in looking at this poll at all after looking at the polling data

[MyNameIsKhan]

34. Both polls have major issues

Not enough sample size for less that 50 years in LV
They appear magically in RV, so they are saying young people are less enthusiastic to vote.

Florida poll has not enough sample size in Tampa Bay Area for LV.. So people in Tampa bay donot care to vote.

[MyNameIsKhan]

35. 2012 polls 46 percent electorate was less than 50

In a poll dataset of 700 even 35 voters can create a 5percent noise

[DonCoquixote]

38. Something is fishy as hell in Florida

Look, I know there are a lot of "deplorables" here, but we also have a lot of hispanics and women who gave this state to Obama twice. I honestly feel the reasons these polls are chanted is because if there is some trickery, it will be accpeted. This is the state where Pam Bondi got CAUGHT being a crook!

[humbled_opinion]

40. "State to Obama twice"

Hillary is no Obama. If she can get that magic sauce going it is a lock but I have my doubts, look at her events nothing like the enthusiasm I remember going to Obama rallies, and the Bernie rallies I attended, that's the problem she's just a good campaigner, a high bar following some of the greatest campaigners including her husband.

[KingCharlemagne]

39. All the fucking deplorables who had previously been shamed for their

racism and misogyny now feel free to let their true colors show.

Racism IS as American as cherry pie.

[TomCADem]

42. Vox - Last year, no candidate got more negative media coverage than Hillary Clinton

Well, the fact that the media's hobby is to tear down Hillary and build up Trump has something to do with it.

http://www.vox.com/2016/6/20/11949860/media-coverage-hillary-clinton

Fox News ran 330 stories about Hillary Clinton in 2015. About 300 of them were overtly negative, according to new research.

Fox News may have hit Clinton harder than any other news outlet, but it’s hardly been alone in treating her candidacy with extra scrutiny. Harvard’s Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics and Public Policy released a report this week that says the top news outlets hammered Clinton in 2015 far more than any other presidential candidate.

According to the report, eight of America’s most influential news outlets wrote coverage "negative in tone" about Clinton 84 percent of the time — compared to just 43 percent for Donald Trump, and 17 percent for Bernie Sanders.

[Divine Discontent]

45. maybe a renaming of this thread to "among 50+ older" which I think is pretty good #s for Hillary!

[brush]

46. I understand they polled republicans over 50. No wonder.

Last edited Thu Sep 15, 2016, 06:58 PM - Edit history (1)

[DownriverDem]

48. About that Ohio poll

CNN reported that they under polled those under 50. WTF?????????

[BigDemVoter]

53. When we have "journalists" like Matt Lauer asking questions, we'd better be ready

to push back hard.