Hillary Clinton Surges Back Into The Lead Over Trump After Pneumonia Scare

[pnwmom]

Source: Politicususa

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton leads Republican rival Donald Trump by 4 percentage points, and her recent bout with pneumonia doesn’t appear to have scared away her supporters, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll.

The Sept. 9-15 tracking poll showed that 42 percent of likely voters supported Clinton while 38 percent backed Trump. Clinton, who has mostly led Trump in the poll since the Democratic and Republican national conventions ended in July, regained the advantage this week after her lead briefly faded in late August.

Clinton has an advantage among minorities, women, people who make more than $75,000 a year, and those with moderate political leanings. Trump has an advantage with whites, men, avid churchgoers, and people who are nearing retirement age.

Overall, Americans appear to be relatively uninspired by their choices for president with less than eight weeks to go before the election. One out of every five likely voters said they do not support Clinton or Trump for president. In comparison, about one out of every 10 likely voters wouldn’t support Obama or Republican challenger Mitt Romney at a similar point in the 2012 presidential campaign.





Read more: http://www.politicususa.com/2016/09/16/hillary-clinton-surges-lead-trump-pneumonia-scare.html

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In a matchup including Gary Johnson, she is 3 points ahead.

I don't love online polls because they are self-selected and history shows they tend to understate Hillary's support -- but this poll is a good sign.

[ailsagirl]

1. Great way to start the weekend!!

Thanks for posting!!

[Journeyman]

2. Why would "people nearing retirement" support Trump? I'm in that demographic and he scares me. . .

precisely for the mess he would make of Social Security. Probably yet another instance of people hearing what they want to hear and not what is being said.

[ginnyinWI]

4. me too! nt

[ThoughtCriminal]

9. A little over 4 years to retirement

Pretty much would plan to abandon that plan if Trump were elected. And I'll have to see how the 2018 and 2020 elections go.

The GOP's purpose is provide the henchmen for the greedy bastards that are determine to steal every dime that wage earners have put in for retirement. Not just Social Security, but our savings and pensions too. It drives them absolutely blood-boiling insane that there is wealth out there that they do not own - yet.

[rtracey]

13. you will be fine

Look, even if Trump gets elected, he will get NOTHING done....NOTHING...why? the congress will not pass any of his fucked up ideas, the Senate, even if not democratic controlled will not have enough to get 60 vote filibuster bust, so it dies in committee. Trump doesnt see that. He thinks he will be King of the US, not President. He won't be anything but a laughing stock after Nov 8.

[llmart]

11. Me three!

I'm not only nearing retirement, I'm past normal retirement age and I wouldn't trust that egomaniac to do anything for seniors.

Also, why would churchgoing people vote for this bloke? He is the farthest thing from Christian you can get.

I'm shaking my head.

[Thinkingabout]

3. Well, expect more comments from his corner.

[Dopers_Greed]

5. I don't get the logic

"I won't vote for (candidate) because they got sick."

to

"Ok, they got over it, back to voting for (candidate)."

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

22. Yeah, sounds like some wishy-washy voters n/t

[PSPS]

6. LOL. Yes, that's right. She's "Back Into The Lead." (Note to lying media: She was never not leading

Geesh. It's getting pretty ridiculous, isn't it? They must create a horse race or they have nothing to sell. Pathetic. And, now, it's a SCARY "pneumonia SCARE@!!!!11!!" Fuck you.

[daligirrl]

7. Trump is conning the media

But the media is conning us.

[ColemanMaskell]

8. Best polling analytics is at fivethirtyeight.com updated daily when new polling data exists

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

The numbers guys at 538 combine data from all available polls and then rework their analyses every time they get new polling data, doing sort of a weighted average. They weight the data so that the more reliable polling organizations (with better track records for accuracy) get more weight.

Seems to be the most accurate view we can get at any given time. At the moment they have Hillary 60% likely to win.

The site also has sections that discuss their methodology.

[Thekaspervote]

10. 538 is good but I much prefer Sam wang at the Princeton consortium

Also, look at at Larry sabatos crystal ball from the university of Virginia. Both of these guys have correctly called every election, wang since the late 90s, I believe and sabato every election since 2000. Wang, openly says his polls don't look like the media polls...why? He says because his are NOT financially or media driven.

Nate silver, I just don't know about him anymore, if he's so good and his polls are not media driven why don't his polls look more like Sam wang's and Larry sabato? Any thoughts ..anyone? He is a card carrying republican, a little known fact that came out after the 08 election. Yes, he's a very smart guy and I highly doubt he wants drumpf to win. "It won't (doesn't) scour" as a very famous president once said of his now very famous war time speech.

[rtracey]

12. ugggg

Come on.... 4 points is NOT a surge, not after she went from 85 % to 60%...... a surge is back up to 75%. I know some are scared shitless about the polls, but come on.....on-line and land line phone polls work real well for voters 18-30 huh..... CNN last poll didnt even include young voters......lets see how the polls look after her debates...

[Martin Eden]

14. Trump has an advantage among avid churchgoers?

What warped, twisted, sick religion do they belong to?

[Mrdie]

15. They're fundies

All they need is for Kenneth Copeland or innumerable other shysters to declare it their duty to God that they get out and vote for Trump.

Case in point: http://www.rightwingwatch.org/content/god-tells-jim-bakker-not-believe-polls-showing-trump-losing

This is because fundies have been attached to the Republican Party for decades. Even when the party nominates someone who clearly doesn't much care for religion, the fundies will adopt the "lesser evil" position. That and fundies also tend to hold racist, sexist, and other reactionary views.

[Martin Eden]

23. Yeah, I knew all that. I just had to vent.

Fundies could have redeemed themselves somewhat if they rejected the horrible excuse for a human being heading the GOP ticket, but they probably helped him win in the first place.

[Ken Burch]

16. The one Boy George told us about in the Eighties:

[anamandujano]

17. These "uninspired" Americans need to turn on the TV. Trump will inspire you to vote Dem.

"Overall, Americans appear to be relatively uninspired by their choices for president with less than eight weeks to go before the election. One out of every five likely voters said they do not support Clinton or Trump for president."

[machoneman]

18. Hillary Clinton Surges Back Into The Lead Over Trump After Pneumonia Scare

Yeah! That is great news indeed. It is notable that even a short absence on the campaign does have a negative effect. Thankfully it is short lived.

[question everything]

19. Good. In reality, I was counting on Trump to "pivot" again to his pugnacious self

after two weeks of being "tame."

[riversedge]

21. Rec and kick for a good Sunday morning.