Clinton leads in just 1 of 4 swing states in latest Quinnipiac poll

[TomCADem]

Source: MSN/The Week

Hillary Clinton leads in just one of the four swing states polled by Quinnipiac University, in the latest batch of polls released Thursday by the Connecticut-based polling center. Clinton edges out Donald Trump in a head-to-head matchup in Virginia, leading 50 percent to 43 percent. But in Colorado, Clinton and Trump are tied, each with 47 percent; in both Georgia and Iowa, Trump is ahead with 50 percent support to Clinton's 44 percent.

Iowa, Colorado, and Virginia can all be considered "a metaphor for what is happening in the presidential race," said Peter A. Brown, the assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "When Quinnipiac University polled last in those states on Aug. 17, Secretary Hillary Clinton was riding the post-convention wave that gave her double-digit leads in many polls," Brown said. "Now, the race has tightened considerably."

In the August version of the Quinnipiac swing-state poll, Clinton led Trump in Colorado, Iowa, and Virginia. She had a 10-point lead in Colorado, 49 percent to 39 percent, a 3-point lead in Iowa at 47 percent to 44 percent, and a 12-point lead in Virginia, with 50 percent to Trump's 38 percent. (Quinnipiac did not include Georgia in the August version of its swing-state poll.)

This latest batch of polls was taken from Sept. 13-21, among roughly 600 likely voters in each of the four states. Both the Colorado and Georgia polls have a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points, while Iowa's margin was slightly higher at 4 points, and Virginia's slightly lower at 3.8 points. Per the RealClearPolitics polling averages, Clinton's slight lead in Virginia and Trump's leads in Georgia and Iowa are par for the course, but RealClearPolitics shows Clinton ahead in Colorado by 3.7 points on average.

Read more: http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/clinton-leads-in-just-1-of-4-swing-states-in-latest-quinnipiac-poll/ar-BBwvyFp

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It seems like Trump's doubling down on his racist, anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim attacks are giving Trump some real momentum in hate filled frezny toward the finish line.

[CBHagman]

1. Georgia isn't a swing state for these purposes.

The last Democratic presidential nominee to win Georgia was Bill Clinton, and that was in 1992. It went to the GOP column in 1996 and has stayed there since. This year could change things, depending on turnout, demographics, and other factors, but to call it a swing state is off the mark.

[LenaBaby61]

3. Georgia isn't a swing state for these purposes...

This ^^^^^

Georgia is not a swing state given ALL you've correctly said, but in Quinnipiac's mind Georgia is a swing state

[TexasBushwhacker]

58. It really isn't

Though Georgia has a fairly large African American population at 30%, it still wasn't enough to put it in the win column for Obama. He lost by 300K votes.

[BumRushDaShow]

12. Exactly

and in that case, they might as well call Arizona a swing state. They should have included NC in their polling instead.

[LenaBaby61]

2. THIS....

poll you're referring to after all is a Quinnipiac poll, and even without seeing the internals of the results of these state poll numbers, I'm just gonna give this a ...

[LovingA2andMI]

4. Clinton Needs A New Marketing Team -- ASAP

It's time for a campaign shake-up like it or not, as these numbers should be concerning. There is less than 7 weeks out from election day and yes - polls can go up and down - however enough with focusing on Trump.

It is time to focus on her. Specifically what will HILLARY do. Why?

In Michigan, Trump just started airing a "new commercial" tonight. Now this is the ironic thing. In the commercial he uses less than 3 section picture of Hillary and Bill Clinton during the Tammy Wynette Interview and the voice overture says "We don't want to go back to more of the same".

Now the rest of that ad has a sudo "Bernie Sanders America" advertisement feel.

Kid writing on ground with caulk spelling "USA", an auto-worker working at a plant, a Family (Caucasian) smiling in front of a American Flag, African-Americans smiling while walking -- etc., etc. etc.

Anyway, here is the point of the ad.

Donald Trump speaks for 27 sections on "What He Would Do As POTUS" and spends less than 4 sections on his opponent. Hillary's ads in Michigan are spending 27 sections talking about him and 3 sections talking about her -- and that is just announcing she approves this ad.

Marketing wise -- Hillary's narrative needs to FLIP in her Commercials. Talk about the Racist, Bigoted, Clown Trump in Campaign Speeches and via her surrogates.

However, if She don't start talking about what SHE WILL DO in her Marketing Commercials well....There is REAL reason to worry.

At least in Michigan - where it is close (within 3-5% points) - to Ohio - where Trump is unfortunately leading by 3-5% points depending on the poll.

Hillary needs to FIRE her Marketing Team - Get a New One ASAP - and WIN THIS - because we cannot afford to have Trump step ONE TOE on the White House.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

6. Long overdue.

[bigworld]

24. I agree -- if she's only tied with Trump, something is seriously wrong.

[Scruffy1]

35. You are so right.

Where I grew up we had a saying: "Never wrestle with a pig. They love it and you just get dirty." You have to sell yourself, not just slam the opponent.

[beaglelover]

54. This is an AWESOME post!!! K&R!!!!!

[NaturalHigh]

5. The Road to 270

With four days to go before the highly anticipated first presidential debate and just under 7 weeks before all the votes are cast, Hillary Clinton still sits above that key threshold in the latest CNN outlook. When you add up all the states either solidly or currently leaning Clinton's way, she has 272 electoral votes in her column in our new estimate.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/22/politics/road-to-270-electoral-college-map-4-september/index.html

I'm not worried. Pollsters and media are trying to make a horse race out of what will end up being a landslide.

[Andy823]

29. I agree

The media as been doing everything they can to keep this a tight race, and many of the polls seem to do their best to keep it tight. Even if the media is pissed and Trump, they still want high ratings, and they can't get that if the race is to far one way or the other.

The only way to make sure is to get out and vote, the rest we will find out on election day.

[adigal]

40. 272 electoral votes and you are not worried?? I am. She should have 350 against this carnival barker

orange buffoon hater, racist piece of ignorant crap.

I agree - she needs to start talking about herself - as a mom, grandmother, guardian for the poor and troubled, talk about how many people Obama care has helped (especially the provisions white parents like, insurance until 26 years old and insurance for pre-existing conditions and say that would go away with Trump) - she needs to start talking about all of the things she's done for Americans in her life. Have people talking about her. Heck, I'd talk about my three kids having insurance after college, and how it protected our family.

Let Kaine go negative, Hillary go positive. And get the Obamas and Biden out there more. I loved what Obama said about "if African Americans don't vote in the same numbers, he will take it as a personal insult."

I am scared and would like to see more of this.

[CaptainTruth]

7. I'm not panicking yet. There are 3 debates to go, & Hillary will kick Trump's ass in those ... nt

[alcibiades_mystery]

8. I hope you have the integrity to show up here on election night

I'm looking forward to it.

[YOHABLO]

11. If you mean DU I would expect they'll shut the site down .. too many posts

will over load the system. Something like this happened last time with Obama.

[alcibiades_mystery]

16. I've been here for every election since the site started

I'm interested specifically in the OP showing his face on Election Day.

[adigal]

41. People aren't allowed to comment on polls that have bad news now?? Are we freepers here now?

I want to know all the news: good, bad and indifferent.

[alcibiades_mystery]

45. ...

[adigal]

50. Is this supposed to mean something?? Cause it doesn't mean anything to me?? nt

[adigal]

51. What this means, alcibiades, is just a mystery to me. I have no idea. nt

[DarthDem]

9. LOL . . . The Qrap Poll

Is that the best they could do? Sad for them. So you add five points to Clinton in each poll to get the real numbers. Looks bad for Trump! I bet his fans are concerned.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

13. Q is rated as an A- pollster with a less than....

....1% Republican bias

There are a lot of crappy pollsters out there. But the hate for Quinnipiac I don't get....

[Lurks Often]

19. Remeber, the only polls that count here are the ones that tell us what we want to hear

[treestar]

23. The only ones that count seem to be the ones

that tell us we're going to lose, with remarks about panicking and giving up.

[Lurks Often]

25. A lot of people here don't seem to want to accept that this election isn't a sure thing

and polls and posts that point this possibility out are ignored or ridiculed.

[treestar]

26. A lot of people don't like us accepting it as a sure thing

It's pretty sure compared to most. This country has imbeciles but not enough to elect Don the Con. And nobody is saying don't bother to vote. GOTV and we win. Some people here seem to eager to zap our confidence so they breathlessly find every poll they can to suggest it is "tightening." Just like the media.

[Lurks Often]

30. That I won't waste either of our time with further replies

you've made up your mind and I doubt anything will change it.

[adigal]

42. OK, what you said. Because your such an expert in...umm...ummm...being an ostrich???

Look at all the data. And don't take anything for granted. You may just be wrong.

[LanternWaste]

39. Only the posts with a narrative counter to the terms of service on DU.

"polls and posts that point this possibility out are ignored or ridiculed..."

Only the posts with a narrative counter to the terms of service on DU. It's not really too difficult to pick them out... unless one has a narrative counter to the terms of service on DU, regardless of the petulant irrelevance of what you allege people won't accept.

[Thekaspervote]

10. Isn't Quinnipiac pretty right leaning?

[Divine Discontent]

14. well, if you based on their commentary alone, you'd say yes! LOL Georgia a swing state?

If anything, the guy interviewed should say, "Clinton is showing unexpected strength in Georgia that we're considering it a swing state". It hasn't been considered that since the fluke of '92 that was caused by Perot getting a good amount of Bush I votes because they didn't wanna vote for Clinton, thus securing Bill's narrow win.

[Divine Discontent]

15. "(Quinnipiac did not include Georgia in the August version of its swing-state poll.)"

well, gee... wonder why not... lol

I'm not saying that these numbers are incorrect, but I never considered GA a swing state and to do so implies she's gained strength in GA that was unexpected.

If PA, WI, VA and CO hold, Hillary will just need one of the FL/OH/NC states to seal the deal. The debate is gonna be big on optics. So many will be watching. The way to have her focus her comments are a key to dismantling Trump's absurd rise to GOP power. I would prefer she go after him for his scandals and say his comments are repeatedly threatening and he encourages violence at his rallies and isn't the type of positive person the country needs and has no experience like she does. I think she'll just stay on the higher ground and allow him to wallow in his pig shit comments, and laugh him off as touched and a bigot who isn't fit for trying to change, and thus the majority of the country agrees with her...

Trump can effectively destroy his chances all by himself if he gets upset though, so we'll see if Lester keeps on him for his BS!

[moose65]

17. Ha! Isn't that funny!

Clinton "edges" Trump in Virginia by 50 - 43, while Trump is "ahead" 50 - 44 in Iowa! What baloney!

[redstateblues]

18. I noticed that too. Kinda gives their slant award

[oberliner]

20. Georgia and Iowa are not swing states

HRC does not need either of them.

[Tempest]

22. Iowa is, Georgia is not

There are 11 swing states. Iowa is one of them.

Of the 11 states, Clinton is leading in the majority of them.

[oberliner]

32. Iowa is not relevant

HRC has no need to win that state. It only has six EVs.

[Tempest]

43. Your personal opinion has no bearing on whether Iowa is a swing state or not. n/t

[oberliner]

47. Ideas about swing states are entirely based on people's personal opinions

That's why different sources identify different numbers of swing states.

Some list 11, some list 13, some list fewer, some list more.

[citood]

28. Huh

"Georgia and Iowa are not swing states"

Iowa is the definition of a swing state.

[oberliner]

31. Iowa is not a swing state

The definition of a swing state is one that is viewed as important in determining the overall result of a presidential election.

Iowa is not necessary or important for HRC to win.

Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio are the only states that will matter on Election Day.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

33. And Obama won it twice

She may not "need it", but it's annoying to not be able to put it in the safe column

[oberliner]

34. Understood

But my point is that Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania will do the trick.

No need to worry about Iowa.

[adigal]

44. And of those three, only PA is a sure thing. I'll never forget FL in 2000 and OH in 2004

We need to get ahead in at least one of them before I breath easy.

[oberliner]

48. Yes, I think we need to work our tail off to win FL and OH

That should be the focus of the campaign.

[Tempest]

46. And if she doesn't win all those states, Iowa is important. Hence a swing state. n/t

[oberliner]

49. No, Iowa is not important if she doesn't win all those states

There is no realistic scenario where HRC wins the White House if she loses PA, OH, and FL.

If she only wins one or two, there is no scenario where Iowa would be relevant.

The focus of the campaign needs to be carrying PA, OH, and FL.

Those are the swing states.

End of story.

[Tempest]

21. Clinton’s Leading In Exactly The States She Needs To Win

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-leading-in-exactly-the-states-she-needs-to-win/

[inwiththenew]

27. Anyone celebrating or panicing about polls before the first debate has even happened

Needs to just take a step back. Let's see where we are after that first debate.

[yellowcanine]

36. "Clinton edges out Donald Trump in a head-to-head matchup in Virginia, leading 50 percent to 43..."

"Edges out" ??? How is a 7 point lead with Clinton at 50 % "edges out"?

[ChairmanAgnostic]

38. there you go again

parsing words, relying on those "fact" thingies.

On this flat earth, facts don't matter. If they did, Teh Donald would be in prison, not leading the GOP.


Sigh.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

37. unlike Lake Woebegone, half of the US is below average

and that is his base.

[Hekate]

59. Sad but true. Really sad.

[misterhighwasted]

52. Q Polling has been a RW leaning B.S. poll all along.

That is why CNN has soley relied on QPoll in their News all damn year.

Stop reading Q Polls as though they were legit.
They are not.
There are more reliable polls out there.

Q is Skewed to lean right.

HERE..READ WHY THEY ARE A BULL CRAP RW POLL

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1016167406

[jamese777]

55. In 2012

Quinnipiac's polls had a 2.3% error rate (+/- 3 is average) and their polls showed a 0.3% Democratic statistical bias which is no bias at all.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-polls-fared-best-and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/
Nate Silver at 538 blog gives them an A minus grade for 2016 polling. Thus far this year, their polls have shown a 0.7% Republican statistical bias so subtract about a point.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

[misterhighwasted]

56. I call bull on Q Poll.

All year I have watched polling being relatively similar. Except QPac.
There are so many times QPolls came out obviously leaning right of every other poll.
And CNN just said nothing as to the obvious difference. While observers saw it and said" ??what's up with Q Pac..pffft!"
One lone poll in the bunch that consistantly showed its Right lean over all the others.

Q consistantly showed themselves to be exactly what they are. RW bull.

[0ccy01]

53. Q seems to poll CO very tight

but CO is the important state right now. If she loses florida certain IMO and Ohio certain as well AND Colorado (very doubtful)... it's over. Going to be a nail biter

[Democat]

60. Your first post is predicting Clinton will lose?

Good luck.