Clinton leads in just 1 of 4 swing states in latest Quinnipiac poll
Source: MSN/The Week
Hillary Clinton leads in just one of the four swing states polled by Quinnipiac University, in the latest batch of polls released Thursday by the Connecticut-based polling center. Clinton edges out Donald Trump in a head-to-head matchup in Virginia, leading 50 percent to 43 percent. But in Colorado, Clinton and Trump are tied, each with 47 percent; in both Georgia and Iowa, Trump is ahead with 50 percent support to Clinton's 44 percent.
Iowa, Colorado, and Virginia can all be considered "a metaphor for what is happening in the presidential race," said Peter A. Brown, the assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "When Quinnipiac University polled last in those states on Aug. 17, Secretary Hillary Clinton was riding the post-convention wave that gave her double-digit leads in many polls," Brown said. "Now, the race has tightened considerably."
In the August version of the Quinnipiac swing-state poll, Clinton led Trump in Colorado, Iowa, and Virginia. She had a 10-point lead in Colorado, 49 percent to 39 percent, a 3-point lead in Iowa at 47 percent to 44 percent, and a 12-point lead in Virginia, with 50 percent to Trump's 38 percent. (Quinnipiac did not include Georgia in the August version of its swing-state poll.)
This latest batch of polls was taken from Sept. 13-21, among roughly 600 likely voters in each of the four states. Both the Colorado and Georgia polls have a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points, while Iowa's margin was slightly higher at 4 points, and Virginia's slightly lower at 3.8 points. Per the RealClearPolitics polling averages, Clinton's slight lead in Virginia and Trump's leads in Georgia and Iowa are par for the course, but RealClearPolitics shows Clinton ahead in Colorado by 3.7 points on average.
Read more: http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/clinton-leads-in-just-1-of-4-swing-states-in-latest-quinnipiac-poll/ar-BBwvyFp
It seems like Trump's doubling down on his racist, anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim attacks are giving Trump some real momentum in hate filled frezny toward the finish line.
CBHagman
(16,980 posts)The last Democratic presidential nominee to win Georgia was Bill Clinton, and that was in 1992. It went to the GOP column in 1996 and has stayed there since. This year could change things, depending on turnout, demographics, and other factors, but to call it a swing state is off the mark.
LenaBaby61
(6,972 posts)This ^^^^^
Georgia is not a swing state given ALL you've correctly said, but in Quinnipiac's mind Georgia is a swing state
TexasBushwhacker
(20,131 posts)Though Georgia has a fairly large African American population at 30%, it still wasn't enough to put it in the win column for Obama. He lost by 300K votes.
BumRushDaShow
(128,372 posts)and in that case, they might as well call Arizona a swing state. They should have included NC in their polling instead.
LenaBaby61
(6,972 posts)poll you're referring to after all is a Quinnipiac poll, and even without seeing the internals of the results of these state poll numbers, I'm just gonna give this a ...
LovingA2andMI
(7,006 posts)It's time for a campaign shake-up like it or not, as these numbers should be concerning. There is less than 7 weeks out from election day and yes - polls can go up and down - however enough with focusing on Trump.
It is time to focus on her. Specifically what will HILLARY do. Why?
In Michigan, Trump just started airing a "new commercial" tonight. Now this is the ironic thing. In the commercial he uses less than 3 section picture of Hillary and Bill Clinton during the Tammy Wynette Interview and the voice overture says "We don't want to go back to more of the same".
Now the rest of that ad has a sudo "Bernie Sanders America" advertisement feel.
Kid writing on ground with caulk spelling "USA", an auto-worker working at a plant, a Family (Caucasian) smiling in front of a American Flag, African-Americans smiling while walking -- etc., etc. etc.
Anyway, here is the point of the ad.
Donald Trump speaks for 27 sections on "What He Would Do As POTUS" and spends less than 4 sections on his opponent. Hillary's ads in Michigan are spending 27 sections talking about him and 3 sections talking about her -- and that is just announcing she approves this ad.
Marketing wise -- Hillary's narrative needs to FLIP in her Commercials. Talk about the Racist, Bigoted, Clown Trump in Campaign Speeches and via her surrogates.
However, if She don't start talking about what SHE WILL DO in her Marketing Commercials well....There is REAL reason to worry.
At least in Michigan - where it is close (within 3-5% points) - to Ohio - where Trump is unfortunately leading by 3-5% points depending on the poll.
Hillary needs to FIRE her Marketing Team - Get a New One ASAP - and WIN THIS - because we cannot afford to have Trump step ONE TOE on the White House.
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,121 posts)bigworld
(1,807 posts)Scruffy1
(3,252 posts)Where I grew up we had a saying: "Never wrestle with a pig. They love it and you just get dirty." You have to sell yourself, not just slam the opponent.
beaglelover
(3,459 posts)NaturalHigh
(12,778 posts)With four days to go before the highly anticipated first presidential debate and just under 7 weeks before all the votes are cast, Hillary Clinton still sits above that key threshold in the latest CNN outlook. When you add up all the states either solidly or currently leaning Clinton's way, she has 272 electoral votes in her column in our new estimate.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/22/politics/road-to-270-electoral-college-map-4-september/index.html
I'm not worried. Pollsters and media are trying to make a horse race out of what will end up being a landslide.
Andy823
(11,495 posts)The media as been doing everything they can to keep this a tight race, and many of the polls seem to do their best to keep it tight. Even if the media is pissed and Trump, they still want high ratings, and they can't get that if the race is to far one way or the other.
The only way to make sure is to get out and vote, the rest we will find out on election day.
adigal
(7,581 posts)orange buffoon hater, racist piece of ignorant crap.
I agree - she needs to start talking about herself - as a mom, grandmother, guardian for the poor and troubled, talk about how many people Obama care has helped (especially the provisions white parents like, insurance until 26 years old and insurance for pre-existing conditions and say that would go away with Trump) - she needs to start talking about all of the things she's done for Americans in her life. Have people talking about her. Heck, I'd talk about my three kids having insurance after college, and how it protected our family.
Let Kaine go negative, Hillary go positive. And get the Obamas and Biden out there more. I loved what Obama said about "if African Americans don't vote in the same numbers, he will take it as a personal insult."
I am scared and would like to see more of this.
CaptainTruth
(6,572 posts)alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)I'm looking forward to it.
YOHABLO
(7,358 posts)will over load the system. Something like this happened last time with Obama.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)I'm interested specifically in the OP showing his face on Election Day.
adigal
(7,581 posts)I want to know all the news: good, bad and indifferent.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)adigal
(7,581 posts)adigal
(7,581 posts)DarthDem
(5,255 posts)Is that the best they could do? Sad for them. So you add five points to Clinton in each poll to get the real numbers. Looks bad for Trump! I bet his fans are concerned.
ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)....1% Republican bias
There are a lot of crappy pollsters out there. But the hate for Quinnipiac I don't get....
Lurks Often
(5,455 posts)treestar
(82,383 posts)that tell us we're going to lose, with remarks about panicking and giving up.
Lurks Often
(5,455 posts)and polls and posts that point this possibility out are ignored or ridiculed.
treestar
(82,383 posts)It's pretty sure compared to most. This country has imbeciles but not enough to elect Don the Con. And nobody is saying don't bother to vote. GOTV and we win. Some people here seem to eager to zap our confidence so they breathlessly find every poll they can to suggest it is "tightening." Just like the media.
Lurks Often
(5,455 posts)you've made up your mind and I doubt anything will change it.
adigal
(7,581 posts)Look at all the data. And don't take anything for granted. You may just be wrong.
LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)"polls and posts that point this possibility out are ignored or ridiculed..."
Only the posts with a narrative counter to the terms of service on DU. It's not really too difficult to pick them out... unless one has a narrative counter to the terms of service on DU, regardless of the petulant irrelevance of what you allege people won't accept.
Thekaspervote
(32,689 posts)Divine Discontent
(21,056 posts)If anything, the guy interviewed should say, "Clinton is showing unexpected strength in Georgia that we're considering it a swing state". It hasn't been considered that since the fluke of '92 that was caused by Perot getting a good amount of Bush I votes because they didn't wanna vote for Clinton, thus securing Bill's narrow win.
Divine Discontent
(21,056 posts)well, gee... wonder why not... lol
I'm not saying that these numbers are incorrect, but I never considered GA a swing state and to do so implies she's gained strength in GA that was unexpected.
If PA, WI, VA and CO hold, Hillary will just need one of the FL/OH/NC states to seal the deal. The debate is gonna be big on optics. So many will be watching. The way to have her focus her comments are a key to dismantling Trump's absurd rise to GOP power. I would prefer she go after him for his scandals and say his comments are repeatedly threatening and he encourages violence at his rallies and isn't the type of positive person the country needs and has no experience like she does. I think she'll just stay on the higher ground and allow him to wallow in his pig shit comments, and laugh him off as touched and a bigot who isn't fit for trying to change, and thus the majority of the country agrees with her...
Trump can effectively destroy his chances all by himself if he gets upset though, so we'll see if Lester keeps on him for his BS!
moose65
(3,166 posts)Clinton "edges" Trump in Virginia by 50 - 43, while Trump is "ahead" 50 - 44 in Iowa! What baloney!
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)HRC does not need either of them.
Tempest
(14,591 posts)There are 11 swing states. Iowa is one of them.
Of the 11 states, Clinton is leading in the majority of them.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)HRC has no need to win that state. It only has six EVs.
Tempest
(14,591 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)That's why different sources identify different numbers of swing states.
Some list 11, some list 13, some list fewer, some list more.
"Georgia and Iowa are not swing states"
Iowa is the definition of a swing state.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)The definition of a swing state is one that is viewed as important in determining the overall result of a presidential election.
Iowa is not necessary or important for HRC to win.
Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio are the only states that will matter on Election Day.
ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)She may not "need it", but it's annoying to not be able to put it in the safe column
oberliner
(58,724 posts)But my point is that Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania will do the trick.
No need to worry about Iowa.
adigal
(7,581 posts)We need to get ahead in at least one of them before I breath easy.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)That should be the focus of the campaign.
Tempest
(14,591 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)There is no realistic scenario where HRC wins the White House if she loses PA, OH, and FL.
If she only wins one or two, there is no scenario where Iowa would be relevant.
The focus of the campaign needs to be carrying PA, OH, and FL.
Those are the swing states.
End of story.
Tempest
(14,591 posts)inwiththenew
(972 posts)Needs to just take a step back. Let's see where we are after that first debate.
yellowcanine
(35,693 posts)"Edges out" ??? How is a 7 point lead with Clinton at 50 % "edges out"?
ChairmanAgnostic
(28,017 posts)parsing words, relying on those "fact" thingies.
On this flat earth, facts don't matter. If they did, Teh Donald would be in prison, not leading the GOP.
Sigh.
ChairmanAgnostic
(28,017 posts)and that is his base.
Hekate
(90,527 posts)misterhighwasted
(9,148 posts)That is why CNN has soley relied on QPoll in their News all damn year.
Stop reading Q Polls as though they were legit.
They are not.
There are more reliable polls out there.
Q is Skewed to lean right.
HERE..READ WHY THEY ARE A BULL CRAP RW POLL
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1016167406
jamese777
(546 posts)Quinnipiac's polls had a 2.3% error rate (+/- 3 is average) and their polls showed a 0.3% Democratic statistical bias which is no bias at all.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-polls-fared-best-and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/
Nate Silver at 538 blog gives them an A minus grade for 2016 polling. Thus far this year, their polls have shown a 0.7% Republican statistical bias so subtract about a point.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
misterhighwasted
(9,148 posts)All year I have watched polling being relatively similar. Except QPac.
There are so many times QPolls came out obviously leaning right of every other poll.
And CNN just said nothing as to the obvious difference. While observers saw it and said" ??what's up with Q Pac..pffft!"
One lone poll in the bunch that consistantly showed its Right lean over all the others.
Q consistantly showed themselves to be exactly what they are. RW bull.
0ccy01
(18 posts)but CO is the important state right now. If she loses florida certain IMO and Ohio certain as well AND Colorado (very doubtful)... it's over. Going to be a nail biter
Democat
(11,617 posts)Good luck.
Response to TomCADem (Original post)
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