Poll: Clinton, Trump in virtual dead heat on eve of first debate

[TomCADem]

Source: MSN/Washington Post

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will meet Monday night for their first debate in a virtual dead heat in the race for the White House, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, with the Democratic nominee’s August advantage erased after recent difficulties and the GOP nominee still facing doubts about his qualifications and temperament.

Likely voters split 46 percent for Clinton and 44 percent for Trump, with Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson at 5 percent and Green Party nominee Jill Stein at 1 percent. Among registered voters, Clinton and Trump are tied at 41 percent, with Johnson at 7 percent and Stein at 2 percent.

In a two-way matchup between the major-party nominees, Clinton tops Trump by 49 percent to 47 percent among likely voters, and the two are tied at 46 percent among all registered voters. Clinton’s two-point edge among likely voters, in both the four-way and two-way ballot tests, is within the survey’s 4.5 percentage-point margin of sampling error.

* * *
The race between Clinton and Trump continues to be defined along lines of gender, race and education. Men and women are mirror opposites in their preferences, with 54 percent of men backing Trump and 55 percent of women supporting Clinton. The racial gap is far larger. White voters back Trump by 53 percent to 37 percent; nonwhite voters back Clinton by 69 percent to 19 percent.

Read more: http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/poll-clinton-trump-in-virtual-dead-heat-on-eve-of-first-debate/ar-BBwBd4Q?li=BBnb7Kz

[jimmil]

1. How in the world..

Can Trump be even thought about when considering the office of president? How?????

[moonscape]

3. It's remarkable. 2+2 no longer = 4. The world turned on its head ... n/t

[TomCADem]

8. With Headlines Like This: "Poll: Trump, Clinton score historic unfavorable ratings"

Most news coverage has been focused on the candidate's favorability as though this was a mere popularity contest. This create a false equivalency and avoids any discussion of substance.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/22/politics/2016-election-poll-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/

Washington (CNN)Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton register net negative ratings in double digits, indicating the front-runners for each party's presidential nominations are viewed negatively at historic levels, according to a new CBS/New York Times poll.

That makes Trump and Clinton viewed more unfavorably than any front-runner for either party since 1984, when CBS began polling voters on the question.

On the Republican side, Trump scores a net negative of -33, with a favorable rating of 24% compared to 57% of voters who view him unfavorably. On the Democratic side, Clinton fares only slightly better with a net negative of -21, registering a 31% favorable rating and a 52% unfavorable rating, according to the poll.

Both candidates' negatives far outweigh front-runners of the past. In 2012, President Barack Obama was viewed favorably and unfavorably by an equal share of voters, while Republican nominee Mitt Romney scored a net negative of -7. In 2008, both Obama and Sen. John McCain had net positive ratings of 16 and 7 points, respectively.

[RKP5637]

28. It's really getting frighting in the US if this many support someone like Trump. Is this really

what Americans have become? If Trump were to win, imagine what the US would become. The US would become among one of the least desirable places to live. How sad and pathetic some Americans have sunk so low as to consider wanting an asshole like Trump as president of the US. Just another total WTF.

[asiliveandbreathe]

2. Sam Wang's take - Princeton

As of September 25, 12:04PM EDT:
Snapshot (146 state polls): Clinton 294, Trump 244 EV    Meta-margin: Clinton +1.8% RSS

Clinton Nov. win probability: random drift 72%, Bayesian 82%

Senate snapshot (47 polls): Dem+Ind: 49, GOP: 51, Meta-margin: R +0.4%, Nov. control probability: Dem. 57%

http://election.princeton.edu/

We need the senate...and Prez - SCOTUS on the line for years to come..

[Laurian]

4. I'm not buying this media driven BS.

Maybe I'm just burying my head on the sand, but I don't trust any of the corporate media polls/promotions/"headlines" about this election. They go back and forth seemingly on whims. I'm tuning out.

[anneboleyn]

15. Me either as it is too obvious as a ratings grab: "OMG they are suddenly tied!!!" This is bs.

[C Moon]

36. That was my first thought. I recall hearing this kind of BS during the 2012 election.

[LovingA2andMI]

25. Historically, You're Right...

From Gallup on the 2012 Obama/Romney Post and Pre-Debate:



Media Driven BS is definitely at play. Hillary still should mop the floor with the Racist, Bigoted, Fascist, Clown of a Man - Trump - at Monday's debate, however, the Media is indeed playing with the polling data at this time to keep the "drama" going.

For ratings, of course....

[RKP5637]

29. Polls are just another form of propaganda to sway the weak minded. n/t

[Martin Eden]

32. Horse Race = Ratings = Profits

That's all the corporate media is interested in. The Fourth Estate was already dead when it went along with the lies of GW Bush during the rush to war in Iraq.

If journalistic integrity was still a thing and facts mattered, Trump wouldn't have a chance.

[Owl]

43. I am. There are stretches of roads with numerous Trump/Pence signs

and nary a Hillary sign.

[still_one]

5. Fuck the polls. Start doing call banking to get out the vote

The polls are all over the place actually:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

and here is my answer to anyone voting for trump

http://www.gq.com/story/a-word-for-donald-trump-voters

[Helen Borg]

6. Ain't that convenient for media ratings?

Cliffhanger! Lotsa people will watch

[Ccarmona]

7. From the article:

"...with the Democratic Nominee's August advantage erased after recent difficulties...". What the hell are they referring to? What difficulties? It's opinion of the writer without proof, subsidence, or facts. Just bad reporting from a supposed impartial source.

[benld74]

9. AIN'T no EFFIN way!

[MFM008]

10. It is mind bending

To be in a world where this ass hole is this close to ruling our lives.
Like waking up in a mental institution.
I can barely take it in.

[moonscape]

24. This says it as accurately as it can be said. I struggle

with the (un)reality that there is even a conversation about Trump. That he exists in any political context. He would be appalling as a mayor of a small village. He is appalling in any context.

[MFM008]

34. I second that thought.

...............

[vadermike]

11. Well

If we win or have a near tie with slight HRC lean tnnrw debate Cool If we are in any way perceived as losing tmmrw Debate I will say this .. I'm not crazy .. Trump will most likely be President .. What a fucjed up country we have .. And I hate to blame HRC campaign team but someone will have made a huge error May God bless us with good luck tmmrw

[skylucy]

12. In a dead heat? Well, now....Isn't that CONVENIENT?

for TV ratings.

[triron]

18. Yes

timing on this supposed tightening is interesting. Perhaps this is a coincidence but certainly is suspect (same with the poll in Pennsylvania) since a bunch of polls just a few days ago showed Clinton up 5-8 pts nationally and 7-9 in Pennsylvania. I don't believe the recent shootings can have had much effect on the polls this soon (if they will at all).

[Helen Borg]

23. We must consider the hypothesis that...

Polls may routinely be rigged. Seriously, what controls are in place to avoid that? What penalties for fabricating data? Are we supposed to believe that with the generalized dishonesty going around there would not be cheating on poll results?

[LovingA2andMI]

26. The Rule of Statistics:

Says the data can be manipulated to achieve a "desired" result and the media need to keep the "drama" going right now, for ratings.

[MFM008]

35. yes, funny

how everything is TIED
Nationally, in most swing states, just the way the media meant for it to be.

[TheCowsCameHome]

13. Well, this isn't good.

These debates will be more crucial than ever.

[world wide wally]

14. I thought the Russian guy was the one having problems recently

[HockeyMom]

16. Something is seriously wrong with America

that it is this close. I say this as a Sanders supporter, and reluctant Hillary supporter. Trump terrifies me even as an as old white woman.

[mnhtnbb]

22. Me, too.

We won't have to worry about climate change heating the world up beyond survivability by 2030. Trump will blow it up before then.

I cannot believe the number of people in this country are so self-destructive they would vote for him.

[LenaBaby61]

40. Something is seriously wrong with America.

I say this as a Sanders supporter, and reluctant Hillary supporter. Trump terrifies me even as an as old white woman.


Do you really think the MSM would have allowed Bernie to run vs tRump unscathed?

IMHO, the so-called "Liberal Media" MSM would have gone after Bernie like they did/do Hillary while at the same time, NOT going into tRump's failing's/lies etc. plus give him unlimited amounts of free air time just like they've done vs Hillary because tRump's a rolling freak show, huckster, P.T. Barnum twin soul and is a pathological liar who says crazy off the wall and outlandish things which unfortunately draw ratings. I'm pretty sure that if Bernie were up by several % points at this time over tRump, Bernie would have found himself in an "alleged" statical dead heat vs tRump as well heading into their first debate.

Finally, I'm one to wait until after the 1st debate, then I start follow polling much closer. However, this is the first time since I've been following poll numbers a bit before their 1st debate because I honestly feel that the media is working the "horse race" meme so they can keep people tuning into their networks so they can make big ad $$$

[PSPS]

17. LOL. " ... stay tuned for more after these messages!!11!1!"

[triron]

19. One important candidate

I have not seen reported much in the polls is McMullin. He is on the ballot in some important states including Virginia and Colorado : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evan_McMullin_presidential_campaign,_2016. A poll today shows Clinton only 9 back in Utah (behind Trump).

[wysi]

20. 55% among women?

WTF? How is this not 80% minimum?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

21. She's AHEAD....don't say tie....Trump will use that - although maybe he will scare people.

[ananda]

27. How convenient for the grubby greedy media.

I don't think it's even close.

[Foggyhill]

30. Another ridiculous poll... 4.5% margin of error... Snoooze

Lets see, the same poll could have reported that she's 2.5% percent below him,
or like the other polls just days before, 6.5% above him (like two other polls).
Which one to believe.... Hmmm.

Maybe just believe that she's ahead and forget everything else. That's what I'm doing.

Their credibility goes down every time they report such nonsense.
The media are dying and using their own decrepit body as compost.

[caber09]

31. Wait didnt their Poll just last week have her up 7...

This is complete BS, did they do an extra poll just to give us the deadheat heading into debate, Trump has a terrible week getting actually pummeled by the media and he gains points? What a crock of you know what...and then look back at the Obama/Romney 2012 eve of first debate, the narrative and numbers were exactly the same hmmm.....

[oberliner]

33. Getting out the non-white vote will be the key to victory

HRC and her team are experts when it comes to the ground game and making sure her voters get to the polls.

That will hopefully be where this election is won.

[George II]

37. Bad poll, and we don't have "national" elections for President. We have state-by-state elections.

[GreydeeThos]

38. The Media wants a horse race; Media gets a horse race

Both candidates tied in the polls?

Advertising revenue up. CHECK

Price per minute for campaign ads up. CHECK

The Media likes this kind of election.

[onehandle]

39. So Hillary has been consistently ahead in the average of polls for many years.

Still.

[broadcaster75201]

42. So Trump only has uneducated white males, HRC has everything else by a lot ...

... and it's close? I know white males are a majority but ... am I missing something here?

I am one who always believed it was going to be close-ish, but how do you lose every single demographic by HUGE margins, but one, and be this close?

I just don'g get it.

[AllyCat]

44. How can this be so close? WaPo's own poll this week had her 7-8 points ahead!

[caber09]

47. Exactly...

Is it normal for the same firm to do 2 polls in less than a week? Clinton up 7-8 points wasn't a good ratings pusher I guess...Talk about creating a narrative, the media will be #1 culprit if Trump gets elected, ugh it makes me sick.

[mdbl]

45. How stupid. Isn't this how the media wants it?

I hope its good for ratings because it certainly sucks for the average American.

[freebrew]

48. Because...

49% of the population are idiots?
Lemmings?
Rush Zombies?
Go figure.

Almost every one I speak to(not often) here is voting for the moran.

The M$M has hypnotized people into believing EVERYTHING negative about Dems.
Thanks to the Rs, we have no funding for education.
Just the way they want it.