For the first time, it looks like Maine’s electoral votes will be split

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

Source: Portland Press Herald

"Trump is leading by double digits in rural regions, while Clinton has the same lock on the more urban south."



Read more: http://www.pressherald.com/2016/09/25/maine-voters-appear-poised-to-render-historic-electoral-college-vote-split-in-2016-election/

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I'm disgusted with this. I live in the second district, but just barely. My city is more southern Maine, but grouped in with the 2nd district. I can't believe people are this stupid.

[onecent]

1. Time to make sure he hasn't sold out to anyone for money...

for these extra EARLY votes.

[aeroman]

2. What else do you expect?

From the district that voted in the Fascist LePage. Twice!!

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

4. It's disappointing for me

because I grew up in the area and people seem to have become increasing stupid and bat shit over the years. It was different when I was a kid. Poor people voting to keep themselves poor it seems.

[still_one]

5. That is why Stephen King is upset about the whole situation in Maine. It would

be a great idea for one of his books, but as I believe he has said, too terrifying to even contemplate

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

7. It's even worse that it would be the first time splitting the electoral vote

and it has to be for that asshole.

[still_one]

11. That is why call banking to mobilze Democrats to get out the vote is so important

It also will help those who are very nervous about what is going on because they are actually doing something positive It is positive for the caller, and for the campaign

[aeroman]

12. Especially since there is a reasonable 269-269 scenario out there

Would be hard to take if Trump got to 270 with that one EC. :~

[exboyfil]

27. There is a Clinton 270 - Trump 268

that I found on the 270 to win website. That assumed the Maine vote was not split.

269/269 and all hell will break loose. Four years of Pence as VP (assuming the Dems take the Senate).

[jpak]

24. and increasingly old and uneducated.

yup

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

3. I was up north in Orono this weekend and there were tons of Hillary signs there

but that's a big college town and probably outside of the norm for northern and eastern Maine.

[mainer]

19. Unfortunately, I see mostly Trump signs when I drive

and I live on the mid-coast. I think Hillary supporters are just afraid to display their signs.

We're one of the few who displays a Hillary bumper sticker.

[jpak]

25. Me too.

Even in former mill towns where there were tons of signs for Dem candidates in previous elections.

Very different than in Caucus season...

[WhiteTara]

6. Well, you do have Governor Dufus too!

(Sorry I can't remember his name...) but you all are the lucky ones with him!

I live in blood red Arkansas, so I can sympathize. We have Taliban Tom Cotton as our senator! Sigh.

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

8. Nobody in Maine needs reminding about LePage

He is a vile attention whore just like Trump.

[Farmgirl1961]

9. How's the GOTV going for Dems in Maine?

n/t

[still_one]

10. Nate Silver still has the probability of Maine going to Hillary

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Nevada, Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina are also very much in play

A few day after the first debate between Romney and President Obama, Gallop had Romney up by +6 points, and just before the election it was even with President Obama up by +1.

The polls seem to be experiencing a lot of fluctuation. I know some pollsters have changed their models, and are basing likely voters on previous Presidential election years. I am not sure if those are applicable models this election. They are also changing the way they do polling, less land lines, more cells, and more online surveys, and while that makes sense, I am not sure with caller ID's just how many people pick up the phone with an unrecognized number since there is now so much more spamming that goes on.

Of course there are people who will pick up the phone regardless if they recognize the caller ID or not. My question is, how many are in the other category that won't pick up the phone for an unrecognized number? If there is enough of a percentage in the group that won't answer the phone for an unrecognized number, that could affect the poll.

I suspect that an older demographic would be more inclined to pick up an unrecognized number than a younger demographic, but I don't know.

[LonePirate]

13. This will set a dangerous precedent if a blue state splits its EVs.

It's not at all like Obama taking the Omaha EV in deep red NE. Repubs will renew their push to expand the Maine system to other blue states they control like Michigan. Of course, they will never do this in states like FL or TX. They will do anything for an electoral advantage.

[24601]

21. Agree - it should be every state or no state doing this. Unfortunately, it's up to each state to

determine how to allocate the EV.

[Heeeeers Johnny]

14. Seems simple enough to me...

Neither candidate is well liked.

This election isn't going to be decided on politics or the issues... it's going to be decided on perception, and whom is least
despised.

With only seven weeks remaining before the election, only 59 percent of voters said they definitely know who they’ll vote for, up only eight points from the newspaper’s poll in June, when 51 percent of voters said they had made up their minds.

Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which conducted the poll, said voter indecision is high for mid-September, when about 70 percent of voters normally say they’ve made up their minds. Smith said the low commitment level reflects the unpopularity of both of the top candidates.

[Drunken Irishman]

15. I'm still skeptical of polling from congressional districts. They're generally less reliable...

...than statewide polling simply because you're dealing with a smaller sample size and therefore, have a potential for a larger MOE.

[BumRushDaShow]

17. "They're generally less reliable..."

and not just due to smaller sample size... It can be deceptive due to gerrymandering! Like here in PA -the 7th Congressional District that had recently gone purple, when Democrat Adm. Joe Sestak won the seat in 2006 and landslided the seat by 20 points in 2008. That didn't go over well with the state GOP and the district was subsequently spider-webbed after the 2010 election and census when the GOP took over the PA State Senate & governor's office, going from this -



to this -



which resulted in creating a red seat once more after PA lost 2 congressional seats, by running the district through 5 counties and excluding most of the smaller urban areas within those 5 counties. I.e., they excluded Reading, Norristown, Pottstown, Coatesville, and split Chester City (which is 75% black).

So when the analysts see the gerrymandering that helped put the GOP in congress, but ignore that this was the ONLY reason why they got there, then they get confused when the GOP loses in statewide and/or in national elections (governorships, U.S. Senators, Presidents).

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

20. Maine only has two congressional districts

and it does make sense in Maine to do presidential election polling by congressional district because Maine is one of the few states that can split electoral votes for president according to congressional district.

[Drunken Irishman]

26. I didn't say it didn't make sense - I said it's still less reliable.

You're still dealing with a very small sample size and a larger MOE than you'd receive in a state-wide poll.

The MOE is greater in those congressional district polls compared to their state poll (4 to 6 - with six being an extremely high MOE for a poll). The statewide numbers are 513 likely voters -and you know less than half of that is this one congressional district (since it's less populated and more rural), which means, at best, it polled roughly 256 people at most. That's an extremely small sample size.

[DFW]

16. Maine elected Paul LePage as their governor

SOMEBODY up there must like the way Trump conducts himself. I ran into LePage at the Zumwalt christening at the Bath Ironworks 2 years ago. A more offensive, ignorant oaf I can't imagine, especially since the only other governor of Maine I ever met is Angus King, who is everything LePage is not.

[mainer]

18. driving to Unity, Maine, I was so depressed

Went to the Common Ground Fair over the weekend (organic farmers' fair) and I passed Trump yard sign after Trump yard sign, almost always displayed in front of rundown houses. I felt I'd accidentally wandered out of the state I thought I knew. Then I got to the fair, and thank god at least there the cars had Bernie and Hillary bumper stickers. The dearth of Hillary signs in northern/central Maine is really grim.

[TryLogic]

22. Sad, indeed.

It sure is difficult to avoid seeing Trump supporters as sickos.

[jpak]

23. i live in the 2nd District and there are Trump signs everywhere - and virtually no Hillary signs

Most of the Trump signs are also accompanied by "No on 3" signs.

No on 3 = reject universal gun background checks.

I wonder how their wives are going to vote...