France calls for embargo on Iranian oil

[bananas]

http://telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/8989167/France-calls-for-embargo-on-Iranian-oil.html

France calls for embargo on
Iranian oil

By David Blair, Chief Foreign
Correspondent
Last Updated: 4: 17PM GMT 03/01 /2012

The European Union should maximise the
pressure on Iran’s economy by imposing an
embargo on imports from the country by the
end of this month, the French foreign minister
said on Tuesday.

This would stop Iran from selling 450,000
barrels to Europe every day, potentially
depriving the country of 30 per cent of its oil
exports. Even if Iran found alternative buyers, it
would probably have to cut the price of its
crude, thereby losing billions of dollars.

<snip>

“Iran is pursuing the development of its nuclear
arms, I have no doubt about it,” Mr Juppe told
French television, adding that France had
responded with a unilateral decision not to buy
Iranian oil. “We want the Europeans to take a
similar step by January 30 to show our
determination,” said Mr Juppe.

<snip>

[earthside]

1. What a disaster.

Taking that action would probably send France's already weak economy into full-fledged recession.
It would also be an act of war against Iran.
It would probably help the Chinese buy more Iranian oil at a cheaper price.

And the 'defense' spending bill Pres. Obama just signed also has these kinds of sanctions in it.

And all because Iran is alleged to be developing nuclear weapons, even though there isn't any evidence of that -- the world is going mad.

[dipsydoodle]

3. Obama just signed.....

wasn't there a rider to the effect that such sanctions could or could not be used depending on circumstances ?

[bananas]

4. Iran is in serious violation of it's IAEA agreements

and no, the embargo and other sanctions won't be an act of war against Iran.
Iran agreed that in exchange for access to and assistance with peaceful nuclear technology,
it would allow intrusive inspections to verify that wasn't developing nuclear weapons,
and it agreed it would report on enrichment facilities etc.
Iran has been flagrantly violating it's agreements.
Iran is in the wrong.
Iran has threatened to blockade the Gulf, which would be an act of war on its neighbors.
Iran has threatened to attack Turkey, which would require a NATO response.
Wesley Clark, former Democratic presidential candidate and former Supreme Commander of NATO, has said that Obama is taking exactly the right approach.
Obama has long been committed to preventing nuclear proliferation, that's what he unanimously won the Nobel Peace Prize for.
He isn't going to back down.
If Iran is allowed to violate its IAEA and NPT agreements, then other countries will decide that the IAEA and NPT treaties are not being enforced and they will pursue nuclear weapons technology, leadig to a massive arms race.

[dipsydoodle]

2. Very brave of them

It was already foreseen that such action could increase the price of oil to c. $250 / barrel.

Interesting he didn't mention gas - Switzerland get their gas from Iran.

[muriel_volestrangler]

5. According to the link from Wikipedia, that was suspended

"In October 2010, EGL announced the unilateral suspension of the gas contract with Iran following American pressures." (link in French, and requires registration) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Switzerland_relations#2007_gas_contract

Tehran says it's just technical problems: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2011-11/02/c_131226077.htm

$250? Assuming Wiki is correct, 80% of Iran's exports are petroleum; but no European nation appears in the list of top export partners.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Iran
Export goods petroleum (80%), chemical and petrochemical products (4%), fruits and nuts (2%), cars (2%), carpets (1%), technical services
Main export partners China 16.3%, India 13.1%, Japan 11.5%, South Korea 7.1%, Turkey 4.2% (2009)

I'd be surprised this could have such a large effect. Are you sure you aren't thinking of Iran blocking the Straits of Hormuz, and its effect?

[dipsydoodle]

6. Related to the substitute situation

If oil from Iran which would normally reach the west doesn't do so and the other OPEC countries don't increase supply to match the shortage the price would increase. Bear in mind that Iran is OPEC's 2nd largest producer.

http://www.zawya.com/story.cfm/sidANA20111204T084718ZTKJ20/Oil_to_hit_250_if_new_Iran_sanctions_applied_MP

Yes - I appreciate that's an Iranian link but best I could for now.