This Is Trump's North Korea Strategy: 'Maximum Pressure And Engagement'

[DonViejo]

Source: Associated Press



By MATTHEW PENNINGTON Published APRIL 14, 2017, 3:16 PM EDT

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Trump administration has settled on its North Korea strategy after a two-month review: “Maximum pressure and engagement.”

U.S. officials said Friday the president’s advisers weighed a range of ideas for how to get North Korea to abandon its nuclear program, including military options and trying to overthrow the isolated communist dictatorship’s leadership. At the other end of the spectrum, they looked at the notion of accepting North Korea as a nuclear state.

In the end, however, they settled on a policy that appears to represent continuity.

The administration’s emphasis, the officials said, will be on increasing pressure on Pyongyang with the help of China, North Korea’s dominant trade and military partner. The officials weren’t authorized to speak publicly on the results of the policy review and requested anonymity.

Read more: http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/trump-policy-north-korea

[yuiyoshida]

1. like poking a stick into some dangerous

animal's hole, that might come out, rip it from your hands and beat you to death with it.

[EX500rider]

2. N Korea?

Hardly....the US would steam roll over their military.
And no they won't be firing off any missiles with nuclear warheads yet, no way they have got their crude nukes down to warhead size and reliability yet.
They rarely do any real military type training anymore, not enough fuel or ammo or food.
And no, most of Seoul is not in range of their artillery, mostly just the northern suburbs, only a limited number of heavy artillery can reach the center of the city. Guns with not much ammo and crews with not much training or practice.

Frankly I think a B-2 bomber at 50,000ft on a dark night should drop a MOAB on the Presidential palace, woops, it blew up, who knows how? Things happen, might have been a gas leak...

[maxsolomon]

4. well, in that case, fire away

it's just the northern suburbs!

[DonViejo]

7. 20 million residents of South Korea, including US forces...

who will be the North's prime target, probably disagree with you.

[EX500rider]

10. Well if North Korea is so unstable....

....that they would attack S Korea and Japan because another country attacks them, sounds like letting them get a working nuclear arsenal would be a very bad idea.
ymmv

[DonViejo]

15. You do know the Korean War is not over, right?...

There's a ceasefire but, the war goes on. In fact, North Korea declared that ceasefire/armistice null in 2013

[Turbineguy]

11. Yeah, you see those parades

with everybody marching in a straight line. I doubt if any of them get bullets. Lil' Kim is probably too worried he'll get shot first.

[SkyDaddy7]

12. I think your assessment is not entirely...

Accurate...From everything I've read NK has the worlds largest artillety force with a good part of it already dug & aimed at Seoul, SK. NK COULD put as much as half million 170mm Koksan artillery shells anywhere inside Seoul, SK in less than 2hours because they have a range up to 37mile/60km when using rocket assisted shells...Not to mention if they were to use chemical weapons! Plus, they have "scuds" & other short range missiles.

...What makes our military so deadly is the first time any of NK's artillery guns fire they're as good as dead because their position is located & will soon be destroyed. However, there would still be quite a bit of damage done Seoul, SK's city center & especially like you said it's northern suburbs!

I do agree...I think NK's military would not last long at all but I also don't see China just sitting on the sidelines either. They will rush in like last time to be sure the government remains a puppet of China at the very least!!

[EX500rider]

13. STRATFOR did a good assessment of N Korean artillery:

The North Korean military's most powerful tool is artillery. It cannot level Seoul as some reports have claimed, but it could do significant damage. Pyongyang risks deteriorating its forces by exposing them to return fire, however, which significantly restricts their use. Less conventional methods of retaliation, such as sabotage or cyber warfare, are less risky but also limit the shock that North Korea would desire.
After a strike, North Korea's most immediate and expected method of retaliation would center around conventional artillery. Many of the North's indirect fire systems are already located on or near the border with South Korea. By virtue of proximity and simplicity, these systems have a lower preparatory and response times than air assets, larger ballistic missiles or naval assets. Nevertheless, there are several critical limitations to their effectiveness.

The biggest anticipated cost of a North Korean artillery barrage in response to an attack would be the at least partial destruction of Seoul. But the volume of fire that the North can direct against the South Korean capital is limited by some important factors. Of the vast artillery force deployed by the North along the border, only a small portion — Koksan 170-mm self-propelled guns, as well as 240-mm and 300-mm multiple launch rocket systems — are capable of actually reaching Seoul. Broadly speaking, the bulk of Pyongyang's artillery can reach only into the northern border area of South Korea or the northern outskirts of Seoul. All forms of North Korean artillery have problems with volume and effectiveness of fire, but those issues are often more pronounced for the longer-range systems. Problems include the high malfunction rate of indigenous ammunition, poorly trained artillery crews, and a reluctance to expend critical artillery assets by exposing their positions.
Based on the few artillery skirmishes that have occurred, roughly 25 percent of North Korean shells and rockets fail to detonate on target. Even allowing for improvements and assuming a massive counterstrike artillery volley would be more successful, a failure rate as high as 15 percent would take a significant bite out of the actual explosive power on target. The rate of fire and accuracy of North Korean artillery systems is also expected to be subpar. This belief is founded on the observably poor performance of North Korean artillery crews during past skirmishes and exercises. Though inaccuracy is less noticeable in a tactical sense — especially as part of a "countervalue attack," where civilian areas are targeted — at the higher level an artillery retaliation rapidly becomes a numbers game.

Ineffective crews also rapidly curtail the potential for severe damage. Rate of fire is crucial to the survivability of artillery systems — the name of the game is to get the most rounds on target in the shortest period of time, lest your position be identified and destroyed before the fire mission is complete. Poor training translates to a greatly reduced volume of fire and a painfully limited duration of effectiveness.

https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/how-north-korea-would-retaliate

[SkyDaddy7]

14. Thanks for posting!

I sure hope this assessment is closer to reality than the others I've read...You know how war is once its starts all that is throw out the window. And then there are chemical weapons. Either way, I would not want to be a citizen of Seoul, SK right about now.

[MedusaX]

3. No different than his strategy for

Pu$$y grabbing....

Maximum Pressure & engagement....

[roamer65]

5. They pop off their nuke and the Chinese are going to pour in from the North.

I really think Xi and Dump did a deal on it in FL. His tweets and verbal vomit really lean toward some sort of favored trade status for China if they invade and remove Kim.

They are waiting for some excuse to move.

[murielm99]

6. I don't think they will do that.

If they remove Kim, they remove their leverage over us.

[captain queeg]

8. Hmmm interesting theory

I must say I've wondered for awhile how much China is benefiting from continuing to support North Korea. Maybe they've finally had enough?

[mpcamb]

9. 'Maximum Pressure And Engagement' and minimal reflection.

This is the stupidest man on the planet!

[not fooled]

16. This whole thing smells like

a convenient way to traumatize the American public with the threat of nuclear annihilation. Then, when dump doesn't actually end the world, we're supposed to feel relieved and grateful. And not pay attention to Russiagate and as dump and his cronies loot the country.

F*cking scumbag is still using his NY thug bag of tricks--threaten the worst so that the mark buys into the con that isn't quite as bad.