Labour just one point behind the Tories in dramatic new poll

[Ken Burch]

Source: Daily Mirror

Labour is now just one point behind the Tories in a dramatic new poll five days before the general election.
The Survation poll puts the Tories on 40% with Labour on 39%.
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This is an astonishing collapse in the Conservatives' poll lead, which stood at 24% near the start of the campaign, according to some organisations.
The survey was carried out today to take into account the impact of last night's BBC Question Time leaders special .


Read more: http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/labour-just-one-point-behind-10554889

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Five days left 'til polling day.

[hrmjustin]

1. There were several different polls out today.

Some have the Tories up more. From what I see on Twitter it seems the youth vote is the key to Labour doing well.
So the polls are all over the place because they are having a hard time guessing turnout.

[Denzil_DC]

5. The polling companies got it so wrong in the 2015 UK general election

(sound familiar?) that they're treating this election as "an experiment" by varying the filters they apply to their raw data.

You're right - pretty much everything hinges on turnout, but also in a number of seats, tactical voting in favour of/against one party or another, which is even harder to predict.

From what I've heard, the Tories have been expecting Labour to overtake them in the polls between now and polling day (they'll have their own private polls, which are usually more accurate than any public ones).

That doesn't mean the result will be cut and dried, and it remains to be seen whether the perception of a close race means Tory voters turn out in even bigger numbers than usual - it could even work in their favour.

[StevieM]

6. This seems to be a common thread on both sides of the pond--younger voters are extremely progressive

and older voters are more conservative than ever.

By 2028 voters who were under 30 when Obama was elected will be all voters under 50. With each passing 4 years the situation will get bleaker and bleaker for the GOP.

[LiberalLovinLug]

15. Youth are usually always more informed via social media and so are usually more liberal

But the problem is always getting them to make the effort to go and vote. Same in any country. I remember when I was so young. Now I've always voted ever since I could, but I do understand the kind of attitude young people have in general. That their vote doesn't matter, or that the world will go on regardless and they have plenty of other years to vote, or simply that they have better, more exciting things to do than stand in some lineup.

Bring back the civics classes on ones responsibility as a citizen. Why did they ever get rid of that in the curriculum?

[MrPurple]

2. Trump's performance with the NATO leaders must play a role in this

From what I've read, Theresa May's refusal to debate and numerous gaffes have hurt her, but seeing Trump, apparently in Putin's pocket and disrespecting the NATO leaders, refusing to affirm that we would stand in their defense, probably plays a role in more of them breaking in a more liberal direction.

May called the snap election because she thought it was an opportunity to pick up more seats in Parliament because her opponents were weak, and even if she retains a majority, it looks like the move will backfire and her party will lose seats.

[Ken Burch]

3. Trump really made the covfefe hit the fan here.

n/t.

[AJT]

4. Not after today's terror attacks.....

[hrmjustin]

7. Not necessarily. May's numbers did not go up after Manchester.

[Denzil_DC]

8. ... which have happened under a Tory government.

Manchester didn't hit Labour in the polls, why would the latest attacks?

[Ken Burch]

9. Which happened under May.

And (if this IS terrorism) it's the second such attack under this government and during this election campaign.

[Dopers_Greed]

12. Maybe Britain's voters accept reality

And don't reward the people in power for allowing terror attacks to happen

[mwooldri]

10. After 1992 and 2015... I frankly don't believe the polls in the UK any more.

1992 and 2015 we were promised a hung parliament with Labour in the lead. Each time we ended up with a Tory government.

[brooklynite]

11. Bear in mind, these are national polls and don't reflect election district outcomes.

[Ken Burch]

14. True, but seat-by-seat polls have shown an increasing liklihood of a hung parliament

(that is...a parliament where no party is even close to a majority).

[moonscape]

13. Envy. Wish we had an election in 5 days. n/t

[LiberalLovinLug]

16. Go Jerry Go!

[Ken Burch]

17. Well, Jeremy(he also has the nickname of "Jezza", which led to this graphic)

But you're right...no one saw this coming...