U.K. Fears Collapse of Brexit Talk Within Weeks

[brooklynite]

Source: Bloomberg

U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s government fears Brexit talks will break down unless the European Union gives ground at a key summit this week, according to a person familiar with her team’s views.

Without a clear sign that negotiations will progress to trade and transition arrangements by December at Thursday’s summit of EU leaders, the entire Brexit process will be in danger of collapse -- and senior British ministers are losing faith in the EU’s willingness to strike a deal, the person said.

The warning came as the prime minister met European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker for talks over dinner in Brussels, in an attempt to smooth the path for progress at the summit in the Belgian capital starting Thursday. Afterwards, the pair said they’d had a “broad, constructive” meeting and agreed to step up attempts to reach a deal on the divorce.

The prime minister and the president of the European Commission reviewed the progress made so far and “agreed that these efforts should accelerate over the months to come,” they said in a joint statement after the meeting. “The working dinner took place in a constructive and friendly atmosphere.”

Read more: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-16/u-k-is-said-to-see-brexit-breakdown-if-eu-refuses-to-compromise

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Perhaps this isn't the best way to go about a separation?

[msongs]

1. brits voted to get out. EU should change the locks and leave the brits to themselves nt

[lagomorph777]

2. Brexit is another Putin plot, orchestrated by his toadie, Farage.

It's no more the UK's fault, than President Turd is our fault.

[LeftishBrit]

7. Putin has been taking full advantage of the situation, but it started long before him

Last edited Thu Feb 15, 2018, 06:22 AM - Edit history (1)

Some of the seed was sown by the late, charismatic and influential MP Enoch Powell, a fanatical anti-immigrantl xenophobe in the 60s and 70s, who is still having influence beyond the grave. A common slogan by current xenophobes is 'Enoch was right!'

And later it was terribly convenient for governments and private organizations to blame the EU for things that were really caused by the governments and organizations in question. And because most people in the UK know next to nothing about the EU, it was very easy to deceive us on this. I once was one of the deceived, but I got better long ago. Many people didn't.

One of the biggest factors IMO in recent times was the influence of ultra-rich tax-haven-dwelling media owners and political donors, who don't like the EU's attempts to restrict their opportunities for tax avoidance.

And of course Putin and Trump are happy to encourage the situation, but they didn't actually cause it in the first place.

[lagomorph777]

11. Analogous to the way Putin hacked the US election, amplifying existing grudges

...and no doubt similar to his pattern in Ukraine and many other places.

[Not Ruth]

8. Handcounted paper ballot or ???

[Denzil_DC]

14. Yes, handcounted paper ballot. n/t

[TeamPooka]

3. Call the whole thing off. You can't break a deal and then expect to get a better one. Call it off or

get screwed in trade deals UK.

[LeftishBrit]

9. Many of us are campaigning strongly to call the whole thing off!

[DavidDvorkin]

13. Do you think that could happen?

Last edited Mon Oct 16, 2017, 05:23 PM - Edit history (1)

A while ago, I saw a poll that showed support for Brexit had risen in the UK. Is the current situation moving sentiment against it?

[TeamPooka]

17. Good luck

[Sen. Walter Sobchak]

4. Brexit talks have already collapsed

One of our clients in the UK has rented an airplane hangar in Germany that can fit two 747s side by side to stage a year's worth of inventory in the EU.

There is no road map for this. The political leadership is incompetent and themselves not entirely true believers and the Whitehall and Exchequer bureaucracy want Brexit to fail disastrously.

[LeftishBrit]

5. What a mess. What an ALMIGHTY mess

UK becomes the first country ever to basically vote economic sanctions on itself. And of course the far Right and even some not on the Right blame foreigners for it!

[Pope George Ringo II]

6. Once upon a time, the EU bent over backwards to let the UK in with all sorts of special concessions

They're not going to give the UK any unique exit, either. The new "Little Britain" needs to figure out that their bargaining position is infinitely weaker on everything than it was before that stupid referendum, and they need to figure it out quickly. The British situation is survivable, but they need to understand they're not even making it out of the EU without paying the consequences for getting out of the EU.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

10. If they revoted, BrExit would fail. It's the smartest thing they could do because of so much remorse

So many of the voters, particularly younger voters, regret voting for BrExit.

If they voted now, then they could drop the process and go back to normal, steady as she goes, stay calm and carry on.

It would far and away be the smartest thing they could do moving forward.

[lagomorph777]

12. Can we rescind the vote for President Turd?

I guarantee the outcome would be different now.

[Blue_Tires]

15. The Brexit voters were continually told they could have their cake and eat it too

they were continually told that they could get straight to the fucking without dinner, a movie and a little foreplay first...

And now reality has crashed down on them like a ton of bricks...

[Dan]

22. Im laughing my butt off

I’ve never read a comment like this before...

[cab67]

16. honest question - what happens if things "collapse?"

I keep seeing articles talking of the danger of the Brexit talks "collapsing," but what actually happens if they collapse? Would Brexit be called off? Would the UK be cut loose on the EU's terms?

[Denzil_DC]

19. The UK would leave the EU without any deal at all.*

Theresa May's trite catchphrase for that situation has been that "no deal is better than a bad deal".

That's as much of a lie as any of the others trotted out by the Leave campaign.

The complexity of all the facets of our trade and political links to the EU are among the reasons why the UK government's so flat-footed. If they'd attacked the situation competently and with a sense of urgency, two years would still have been a very tight deadline for concluding negotiations on the terms of the withdrawal under Article 50. As it is, they've wasted the last year or so dithering, fantasizing about "having our cake and eating it", holding a pointless election, and failing to come up with a coherent set of goals to even form the basis for negotiations.

The claimed fallback position is that the UK would simply default to World Trade Organization rules on trade rather than the EU's, but even that - which would be a lot less favourable than the terms we enjoy right now - would be beset with serious pitfalls and be far from simple. The UK and EU have recently made a joint approach to the WTO about how trade affairs would be managed after Brexit, but there's a danger it might spark a trade war with the US, which May has been desperately hoping might offer a lifeline.


* Unless - a massive and at the moment extremely likely UNLESS - the failure of the talks sparked a new referendum or a general election that led to a different government reversing course on Brexit, or at least a "hard" Brexit that would place the UK outside the Single Market etc.

[Sen. Walter Sobchak]

20. Effectively, the EU will smother the UK for as long as it ammuses Angela Merkel

I suspect the EU will let the British wallow in their own filth for about six months to a year before re-engaging them. Sooner if a new Prime Minister like Tony Blair or Michael Heseltine emerges.

[zipplewrath]

23. The loss of Northern Ireland and Gibraltar

There is an outside chance that both Northern Ireland and Gibraltar could choose to leave the UK to be able to stay/rejoin the EU. They are vastly more dependent upon the EU connection than the UK connection. Honestly, they'd best hope that Scotland doesn't start to think about leaving as well.

[onetexan]

18. Pardon my ignorance, could someone explain what Brexit talks failing will mean to UK

i dont think Teresa May has control of her government at this point.

[DoctorJoJo]

21. Since BREXIT is widely ....

... considered as the initial push button for the Trump movement, we can only hope its collapse be as equally fortuitous!

JoJo