Election forecaster moves 26 races in favor of Dems

[demmiblue]

Source: The Hill

A top election forecaster has moved more than two dozen House races in favor of Democrats.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an election handicapper at the University of Virginia, announced the ratings changes Thursday morning.

This is the first time in this election cycle that fewer than 218 seats have been at least rated as leaning Republican. All Democratic incumbents' races are now rated at least “Likely Democratic.”

The ratings also name GOP Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) for the first time. Ryan’s seat was moved from “Safe” to “Likely” Republican. The group noted that reports that he may not run for reelection were the primary reason the move.

Read more: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/377337-election-forecaster-moves-26-races-in-favor-of-dems?__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true

[Sherman A1]

1. Way too early

One can hope, but 24 hours is an eternity in politics.

[Funtatlaguy]

2. True, and I respect Charlie Cooks opinion

more than Sabato.

[Demsrule86]

3. I think Sabato is pretty good... I am optimistic.

[titaniumsalute]

6. They are very open about that in the article

Sabato is very honest about the addition of variables like major gaffes, scandals, and other domestic or geo-political events impact elections. It's a great read and well researched opinions.

[Cosmocat]

4. This is not enough

It would get the House with a 2 seat majority ...

Gerrymandering, vote suppression and all, just insane this country have given Rs the kind of power they have in DC, they were complete partisan jackasses LONG before they bent the knee to 45.

This country needs to absolutely repudiate them, the kind of white wash they got in BHO's first mid term, AT LEAST.

[DownriverDem]

11. Would like a bigger margin

but those who have the majority control the committees and agenda. Folks complain about the Dems not doing anything, but they seem to forget that the repubs control what is taken up and voted on. Winning elections is the key.

[Cosmocat]

12. right

I know ...

Getting the gavel is imperative.

But, dems don't and wont' have the fanatical/pathetic party discipline where EVERY STINKING ONE OF THEM bends over to whatever crazy ass shit they do.

They need a healthy margin to actually get anything done, as well as lend the "moral authority" a larger margin provides.

It will be hell as is, but it just gives some level of credence to the right wing/"liberal media" bullshit if they were to have that thin of a margin and moved to do what needs to be done with 45 ...

[titaniumsalute]

5. Read this entire article

His work is always so good. Long read but worth it if you're political geek like me.

[unblock]

7. His work seems to lean a bit toward the republican side, so this is really good for us.

Then again, his republican tilt seems to pretty closely align with republican chicanery....

[beachbum bob]

8. the key here is "likely democrat" and doesn not include those races that are

tossups or lean republican but could certainly go democratic when the wave happens. all in all good news for democrats

[orangecrush]

9. Kick and Rec

[Wednesdays]

10. Only 26?

[jayschool2013]

13. Iowa's First

Rod Blum's seat now a toss-up. That's a good thing. If it goes Dem, the entire eastern half of the state will be represented by Democrats, while the west would be represented by idiots.

[muntrv]

14. GOTV, my friends.

[Wounded Bear]

15. Nice to hear, but complacency is our biggest foe right now...

There are literallly thousands of people out there, and hundreds of candidates that are working hard to bring this about.

Much work to be done. If we GOTV, we can make this happen.

[not fooled]

16. Sounds like

the zombie-eyed granny-starver (thanks, Charlie Pierce) is waiting to see how the wind blows before deciding whether to run again.

Those people in his district in Wisconsin need to wise up and kick his sociopathic, any rand-loving ass OUT.

[2left4u]

17. Nope

I fell for this once, I'm not buying into this BS again.