HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » Latest Breaking News (Forum) » Election forecaster moves...

Thu Mar 8, 2018, 07:47 AM

Election forecaster moves 26 races in favor of Dems

Source: The Hill

A top election forecaster has moved more than two dozen House races in favor of Democrats.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an election handicapper at the University of Virginia, announced the ratings changes Thursday morning.

This is the first time in this election cycle that fewer than 218 seats have been at least rated as leaning Republican. All Democratic incumbents' races are now rated at least “Likely Democratic.”

The ratings also name GOP Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) for the first time. Ryan’s seat was moved from “Safe” to “Likely” Republican. The group noted that reports that he may not run for reelection were the primary reason the move.

Read more: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/377337-election-forecaster-moves-26-races-in-favor-of-dems?__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true

17 replies, 4686 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 17 replies Author Time Post
Reply Election forecaster moves 26 races in favor of Dems (Original post)
demmiblue Mar 2018 OP
Sherman A1 Mar 2018 #1
Funtatlaguy Mar 2018 #2
Demsrule86 Mar 2018 #3
titaniumsalute Mar 2018 #6
Cosmocat Mar 2018 #4
DownriverDem Mar 2018 #11
Cosmocat Mar 2018 #12
titaniumsalute Mar 2018 #5
unblock Mar 2018 #7
beachbum bob Mar 2018 #8
orangecrush Mar 2018 #9
Wednesdays Mar 2018 #10
jayschool2013 Mar 2018 #13
muntrv Mar 2018 #14
Wounded Bear Mar 2018 #15
not fooled Mar 2018 #16
2left4u Mar 2018 #17

Response to demmiblue (Original post)

Thu Mar 8, 2018, 07:49 AM

1. Way too early

One can hope, but 24 hours is an eternity in politics.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Sherman A1 (Reply #1)

Thu Mar 8, 2018, 07:51 AM

2. True, and I respect Charlie Cooks opinion

more than Sabato.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Funtatlaguy (Reply #2)

Thu Mar 8, 2018, 07:54 AM

3. I think Sabato is pretty good... I am optimistic.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Sherman A1 (Reply #1)

Thu Mar 8, 2018, 08:12 AM

6. They are very open about that in the article

Sabato is very honest about the addition of variables like major gaffes, scandals, and other domestic or geo-political events impact elections. It's a great read and well researched opinions.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to demmiblue (Original post)

Thu Mar 8, 2018, 07:55 AM

4. This is not enough

It would get the House with a 2 seat majority ...

Gerrymandering, vote suppression and all, just insane this country have given Rs the kind of power they have in DC, they were complete partisan jackasses LONG before they bent the knee to 45.

This country needs to absolutely repudiate them, the kind of white wash they got in BHO's first mid term, AT LEAST.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Cosmocat (Reply #4)

Thu Mar 8, 2018, 09:10 AM

11. Would like a bigger margin

but those who have the majority control the committees and agenda. Folks complain about the Dems not doing anything, but they seem to forget that the repubs control what is taken up and voted on. Winning elections is the key.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to DownriverDem (Reply #11)

Thu Mar 8, 2018, 09:18 AM

12. right

I know ...

Getting the gavel is imperative.

But, dems don't and wont' have the fanatical/pathetic party discipline where EVERY STINKING ONE OF THEM bends over to whatever crazy ass shit they do.

They need a healthy margin to actually get anything done, as well as lend the "moral authority" a larger margin provides.

It will be hell as is, but it just gives some level of credence to the right wing/"liberal media" bullshit if they were to have that thin of a margin and moved to do what needs to be done with 45 ...

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to demmiblue (Original post)

Thu Mar 8, 2018, 08:11 AM

5. Read this entire article

His work is always so good. Long read but worth it if you're political geek like me.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to demmiblue (Original post)

Thu Mar 8, 2018, 08:17 AM

7. His work seems to lean a bit toward the republican side, so this is really good for us.

Then again, his republican tilt seems to pretty closely align with republican chicanery....

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to demmiblue (Original post)

Thu Mar 8, 2018, 08:28 AM

8. the key here is "likely democrat" and doesn not include those races that are

tossups or lean republican but could certainly go democratic when the wave happens. all in all good news for democrats

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to demmiblue (Original post)

Thu Mar 8, 2018, 09:01 AM

9. Kick and Rec

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to demmiblue (Original post)

Thu Mar 8, 2018, 09:08 AM

10. Only 26?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to demmiblue (Original post)

Thu Mar 8, 2018, 10:12 AM

13. Iowa's First

Rod Blum's seat now a toss-up. That's a good thing. If it goes Dem, the entire eastern half of the state will be represented by Democrats, while the west would be represented by idiots.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to demmiblue (Original post)

Thu Mar 8, 2018, 10:23 AM

14. GOTV, my friends.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to demmiblue (Original post)

Thu Mar 8, 2018, 10:46 AM

15. Nice to hear, but complacency is our biggest foe right now...

There are literallly thousands of people out there, and hundreds of candidates that are working hard to bring this about.

Much work to be done. If we GOTV, we can make this happen.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to demmiblue (Original post)

Thu Mar 8, 2018, 10:28 PM

16. Sounds like

the zombie-eyed granny-starver (thanks, Charlie Pierce) is waiting to see how the wind blows before deciding whether to run again.

Those people in his district in Wisconsin need to wise up and kick his sociopathic, any rand-loving ass OUT.


Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to demmiblue (Original post)

Sun Mar 11, 2018, 09:23 PM

17. Nope

 

I fell for this once, I'm not buying into this BS again.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread