Dems face difficult choices on resources in battle for Senate

[brooklynite]

Source: The Hill

Senate Democratic Leader Charles Schumer (N.Y.) is facing pressure from vulnerable incumbents and hopeful challengers about where to spend the party’s limited resources in this fall’s midterm elections.

Senate Democrats are defending 26 seats, including 10 in states that voted for President Trump, and many of those candidates are going to need help from the national party.

But Democrats also have an outside shot of taking back the Senate majority if 2018 turns into a wave election. Democratic candidates trying to turn the Senate blue will also want help from Schumer.

Schumer and allied strategists will have to decide whether to focus more on defense or offense.

Read more: http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/380929-dems-face-difficult-choices-on-resources-in-battle-for-senate

[progree]

1. Republicans only have 8 seats to defend. And in the House...

While Democrats have those 26 seats to defend, Republicans are protecting only eight seats. That leaves Democrats with few opportunities.

So it's going to be tough. Likewise in the House:

Dems Would Need Huge Wave To Win US House, Report Suggests, 3/29/18
http://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2018/03/26/dems-would-need-huge-wave-to-win-us-house-report-suggests/

To win a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, Democrats would need a tremendous electoral wave not seen in more than 40 years to overcome Republican advantages from gerrymandered districts in key states, according to an analysis from the Brennan Center for Justice .

...“It would be the equivalent of a tsunami,” said Michael Li, a senior counsel who heads up redistricting work for the center, which is based at New York University School of Law. “Democrats would have to win larger than any sort of recent midterm wave — almost double what they got in 2006 — in order to win a narrow majority.”

The center’s analysis notes that Democrats gained 31 seats when they won the national congressional vote by 5.4 percentage points in 2006. Yet under the current districts, which were redrawn after the 2010 Census under GOP control of many state capitols, a similar national victory margin in the November election is projected to net Democrats only about a dozen new seats.

[brooklynite]

2. Actually, the two aren't comparable

The Senate analysis looks at individual seats, while the House analysis looks at aggregate national data.

Dems need net 24 seats to take the House. Right now, there are already 7 that are "LEAN D" or "LIKELY D" and another 19 that are TOSSUPS

[progree]

4. Unless I'm missing something, that's still pretty long odds in the House

We have to win 100% of the 7 "Lean D" and "Likely D" and 17 out of 19 of the Tossups (89%) to get the 24 seats needed? Assuming they are really tossups (i.e. really around 50-50 odds even when factoring in the big blue wave we've seen in the special elections so far).

Although I suppose I have to factor in that the Repukes aren't likely to win ALL of their "Lean R" and "Likely R" seats, so we might get some seats there... Maybe even some "Solidly R" seats might change hands, considering what we saw in Alabama and Virginia.

[Jim Lane]

6. Republicans are now defending 9 Senate seats with the special election in Mississippi

Granted, Mississippi isn't prime blue-team territory, but neither was Alabama.

Because of the vacancy, Mississippi will have two Senate elections this fall. The rules for the special election improve our chances. Another factor is Chris McDaniel, the Tea Party type who came close to unseating Thad Cochran in a bitter 2014 primary. The electoral-vote.com blog has this summary:

Thad Cochran resigned due to ill health and Gov. Phil Bryant appointed the state agriculture and commerce secretary, Cindy Hyde-Smith to the Senate to replace him. She and Chris McDaniel will have an extremely bitter fight in November. McDaniel is going to hit her over the head with the fact that she was a Democratic state senator until 2011. If McDaniel and the Democrat come in first and second in November, they will be in a runoff in December, and the Democrat has an actual chance to win because McDaniel is so far to the right that suburban Republicans are likely to vote for the Democrat. In addition, 37% of Mississippi residents are black, and the Democrat is likely to get nearly all of their votes.

Wouldn't it be a hoot if Democrats from Alabama and Mississippi were the ones to flip the Senate!

[frazzled]

3. Why don't we all donate to the DSCC then

So they'll have less limited resources.

[FakeNoose]

7. They email me DAILY begging for money

Isn't everyone on DU getting the same emails from DCCC?

[BittyJenkins]

5. They always throw headlines out like this

when they want to change the subject. Lets be real, Republicans have way more "difficult choices" to make than Democrats. Democrats are never allowed to be portrayed as a party that is winning.